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BRR pattern points to a true Santa rally for bonds. A rare chart pattern second in predictive power to only the famous head and shoulders is the Bump and Run Reversal (BRR) technical pattern. school.stockcharts.com If it is so powerful, why is it so unheard of? 1) They are rare. But a recent BRR of very high consequence is the 2022 DXY chart. 2) They usually only occur on high time frames as they measure manias and blow off tops, or in the inverse, manic selling followed by a return to normal. 3) They are hard to chart 4) They give predictive power in terms of time, not in terms of a "measured move" of price, but in the other dimension time. This chart shows a clear BRR reversal, 55 days in the manic up pattern, the "bump". 55 Days in the return to trend or "run". Which would create a 10 year US Treasury bond rally and likely a rally in risk on assets. Which lands us, perfectly, at yields dropping until Monday December 25th 2023. Merry Christmas Traders!
TVC:US10YLong
by SuperCycleTA
GOLD 2 SCENARIOSDear Traders, "There are currently two potential scenarios unfolding for XAUUSD (Gold paired against the US Dollar). The first scenario involves a bullish trajectory where XAUUSD is poised to surpass the highest resistance point ever witnessed in the gold market. This would signify a significant breakthrough, potentially leading to a historic milestone for gold prices. On the flip side, the second scenario considers the possibility of a retracement in price movement. This scenario draws from historical trends, notably three previous instances where XAUUSD retraced after approaching similar highs. Understanding these past occurrences suggests a potential pattern of retracement following a surge toward this critical resistance level. Both scenarios hold significance and warrant careful observation. Traders and investors are keenly monitoring market movements to decipher which direction XAUUSD will ultimately take. The breakthrough of the highest resistance point could signal a substantial bullish trend, whereas a retracement would echo previous market behaviors, potentially offering insights into future price movements. As always, market analysis remains dynamic and subject to various factors. Traders must diligently assess the evolving market conditions and indicators to make informed decisions based on these two probable scenarios for XAUUSD." Greetings, ZTRADES
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
USD/JPY Waiting for USD news!The USD/JPY pair recorded an increase near the 150.20 area, recovering some of the previous losses caused by weaker-than-expected US inflation data. However, the US dollar is near its lowest level since September, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve has concluded its tightening policy. The BoJ may delay a shift from accommodative monetary policies following the contraction of the Japanese economy. The daily trend is bearish, but the pair shows resilience above the psychological level of 150.00 and an ascending trendline. A downside break could lead to further declines towards 149.20-149.15, while an upside move may encounter resistance at 151.00, 151.20, and 151.90. The situation calls for caution before positioning for further gains or losses.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
9
EUR/USD Breakout to the upside followed by a pullback towards 1.On Friday, the EUR/USD exchange rate is rising, approaching 1.0900, with the U.S. dollar supported by higher Treasury yields and mixed market sentiment. The pair is poised to mark the highest weekly close since August. Despite a lower low, the pair quickly reversed the trend upwards according to the daily chart. The 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are directionless between 1.0790 and 1.0800, while the 20 SMA is accelerating north below the longer ones. Technical indicators, though stable near overbought levels, show a slight increase without a clear directional bias. In the short term, the technical outlook suggests a potential uptrend, as 4-hour chart indicators corrected from extremely overbought readings, reflecting a growing buying interest. The bullish momentum is likely to resume by surpassing the immediate resistance level at 1.0890. In fact, we have a price oscillating between two support and resistance areas. Let's say the long-term outlook is bullish, and I expect the price to break the level of 1.0946 before a retest of the 1.09 level, and then move towards 1.10. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
19
NASDAQ Pullback before 16,500!On November 17th, the USA's technology stocks index closed with a modest gain of +0.03%. The opening was stable compared to the previous day's closing, followed by a gradual improvement throughout the session. The short-term trend of the Nasdaq 100 is strengthening, with a resistance area identified at 15,956.4, while the nearest support is seen at 15,601.2. An upward continuation towards the level of 16,311.6 is expected. Furthermore, after the breakout from the bearish channel in the daily chart, I anticipate a retracement to the level of approximately 15,200, which corresponds to the 0.5% Fibonacci level. After that, I will aim to ride the upward trend, targeting an entry with a goal between 16,300 and 16,700. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
14
USOIL: Pullback to the upside before the descent! West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for U.S. crude oil, has rebounded from a three-month low of $72.22, experiencing a more than 4% increase during the mid-North American session. This rise has been attributed to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil shippers and profit-taking by traders. Currently, WTI is traded at $75.97 per barrel, marking a gain of 4.27%. The U.S. Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on companies and vessels involved in shipping oil beyond the G7's $60 limit, with the aim of reducing Russian profits linked to actions in Ukraine. Despite an increase in U.S. crude oil stockpiles and a rise in Baker Hughes' drilling rig count, indicating growing oil production, WTI prices have not been significantly influenced. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel with the possibility of a pullback to the upside before resuming the downward trend towards 68 points. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
TVC:USOILShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
13
GBP/USD Pullback in Sight Before Reaching 1.28?The GBP/USD pair is currently slightly above the 1.2400 level, navigating the upper part of the recent consolidation range. Initially, the British Pound gained 2.25% against the US Dollar midweek but later trimmed its increase to a more modest 1.65%. Despite general market optimism due to speculation about the Federal Reserve possibly pausing interest rate hikes, the GBP/USD remains trapped in a mid-range position, influenced by disappointing economic data from the UK. In October, retail sales in the UK decreased by 0.3% on a monthly basis, sharply contrasting with the expected increase of 0.3%. September's data was revised downward, changing from -0.9% to a significant -1.1%. Retail sales in the UK on an annual basis recorded an even steeper decline, with a decrease of -2.7% compared to the previous -1%, surpassing the forecast of -1.5%. The next focus for investors will be on the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes next week. From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD has recorded a 1.75% increase during the week, holding onto midweek gains. The key level to watch is the midweek peak at 1.2510, representing a significant challenge for the bulls. Additionally, next week, the price may face strong resistance at 1.2544, which could trigger a slight retracement before continuing upward towards 1.26-1.28. Share your opinions in the comments and give it a like. Have a great weekend and happy trading to everyone from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
11
XAUUSD: Breakout of 2000 in sight!Gold, consolidating above $1,980 this Friday, aims to break a two-week downtrend. Despite the potential for a US dollar recovery, the decline in Treasury bond yields supports gold's upward movement. Surging above the 21-day Simple Moving Average at $1,974, Thursday's close motivated buyers. The 14-day Relative Strength Index remains comfortably above the midline, confirming the upward trend. The next challenge is the descending trendline resistance at $1,992, near the November 6 high of $1,993. A breakthrough could push buyers to target the psychological $2,000 level. In case of selling pressure, initial support lies at the 21-day SMA at $1,974, with a risk of rapid decline to $1,960. Further downward extension may test psychological support at $1,950. Gold remains influenced by risk trends and Federal Reserve statements. US-China trade tensions and Fed rate uncertainty keep investors cautious. In a market of uncertainty, the safe-haven US dollar limits gold's upward attempts. However, gold benefits from recent Treasury bond yield declines, with hopes the Fed's rate-hiking cycle is done and rate cuts are anticipated by May next year. Weak US economic data reinforced expectations of a Fed pause, justifying the gold surge. In October, the US Producer Price Index had its steepest decline in three and a half years, and Consumer Price Index inflation dropped to 3.2% YoY. Retail sales fell 0.1% in October. Thursday saw US initial claims rise by 13,000 to 231,000 for the week ending November 11. Gold prices are likely to maintain an upward trend, but end-of-week profit-taking and a potential US dollar recovery may pose challenges. Data on US housing starts and building permits are expected to have a limited impact on US dollar trading.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
11
GBP/USD: Pullback after Asia and ahead of 1.27.GBP/USD is moving sideways with a negative tone near 1.2410 during the Asian hours on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) finds support despite positive data on US jobless claims and a decrease in US Treasury yields. Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending on November 3 increased to the highest level since 2022 at 1.865 million, compared to the previous reading of 1.833 million. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on November 10 rose to 231,000, exceeding the expected 220,000, marking the highest level in nearly three months. Despite challenging labor market indicators, the US Dollar Index (DXY) recovered ground. Notably, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note bottomed at 4.43% on Thursday. However, it is observed that the DXY is bidding lower around 104.30 at the time of writing. Federal Reserve representatives have spoken out to counter expectations of rate cuts. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester emphasized that the US central bank is data-dependent when considering whether to raise rates further, reflecting the nuanced approach taken in response to economic conditions. The UK inflation report for October revealed a notable decline in the annual rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), dropping to 4.6% from the previous level of 6.7%. The monthly rate also eased to 0.0%, falling short of the expected 0.1%. Core CPI (Year-on-Year) also contracted to 5.7% from the previous reading of 6.1%. Despite the Bank of England (BoE) emphasizing the need for higher rates, market participants are not anticipating more rate hikes. Investors are awaiting key economic indicators, focusing on UK Retail Sales and US housing data. Additionally, I note how the price has reacted at the level of 1.25, near the 0.5% Fibonacci level, during the Asian session. I expect a slight pullback to regain liquidity below the Asian session low before aiming for a long position towards 1.27. Let me know what you think, leave a like and comment. Greetings and happy trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
18
Gold Surges on Weaker US Inflation DataThe price of gold has experienced substantial gains, surpassing $1,950 following a less pronounced increase than anticipated in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October. This has led traders to scale back their bets on a December Federal Reserve rate hike. The US dollar slid in tandem with US Treasury bond yields due to disappointment in US inflation data. Currently, the price of gold is confined to a narrow range, correcting towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, situated around $1,933.80. The short-term outlook has turned bearish, with gold trading below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), although the 50-day EMA at approximately $1,938.00 continues to provide support. Investors await October's US inflation data, hoping for clarity on monetary policy. Economists project steady growth in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) but a slowdown in overall inflation. Persistent US inflation could fuel expectations of further restrictive measures by the Federal Reserve (Fed), committed to timely reducing inflation to 2% and prepared to raise rates if deemed necessary.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
11
USD/CAD Toward 1.39 after US Data?The USD/CAD pair has attracted buying interest, maintaining modest gains just below the 1.3700 level. Declining crude oil prices and the strengthening of the US dollar contribute to this dynamic. From a technical perspective, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support has been defended, but the lack of sustained support requires caution. A break below the support could lead to deeper losses. Conversely, sustained strength beyond 1.3710 could trigger a short-covering move, but further upward movements may be seen as selling opportunities. The key level of 1.3800 will be crucial; surpassing it will shift the short-term bias in favor of bulls, with the goal of reaching 1.3900, the highest level since May 2020. In fact, on a daily basis, the price is moving in a resistance zone at the 1.37 level, supported by an uptrend channel. My current bias is long since the price is bouncing off the intersection of two daily trendlines. However, before entering, I will wait for US data before the opening of the American market. Subsequently, if my view is supported by the data, I will evaluate and look for a long entry with a target of around 1.39-1.40. Comment and leave a like, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
18
GBP/USD. Two Upside Scenarios Today!During Thursday's Asian session, the GBP/USD pair consolidated, oscillating in a narrow range and maintaining spot prices above the 1.2400 level, influenced by the dynamics of the US Dollar (USD). The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of currencies, struggled to capitalize on the modest recovery from the lowest level since September 1 due to dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Bets increased following the softer US CPI report released on Tuesday, indicating consumer inflation was cooling faster than expected. Moreover, markets are now pricing in a higher probability that the Fed will begin cutting rates in the first half of 2024, keeping US Treasury bond yields low and acting as a headwind for the dollar. However, upside prospects are limited by the growing acceptance that the Bank of England (BoE) may soon start cutting interest rates. The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) on an annual basis dropped significantly from 6.7% to 4.6% in October, hitting a two-year low. Additionally, Core CPI declined from 6.1% in September to 5.7%. In this mixed fundamental context, aggressive traders should exercise caution before establishing a firm direction in the short term, especially in the absence of relevant macroeconomic data from the UK on Thursday. Meanwhile, the US economic calendar features the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Industrial Production figures. These, along with US bond yields and overall risk sentiment, could influence USD price dynamics and offer short-term opportunities in the GBP/USD pair. I have also identified two possible price scenarios: the first anticipates an upward price movement during the London session as we are in an Order Block at the 1.24 level, and the price could retest the supply zone at 1.249. The second scenario suggests a decline to the 0.5% Fibonacci level calculated from the low of 1.207 to the high of 1.251. If it retraces to this Fibonacci level and tests the bullish trendline again, the price could push higher. Comment and leave a like; greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
16
USD/CAD Ready for Reversal Towards 1.37.The USD/CAD rate is hovering around 1.3820 during the early European session on Tuesday, with buying interest, followed by the immediate resistance region around 1.3850, in line with the previous week's high at the 1.3854 level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence line is situated above the centerline but shows convergence below the signal line, suggesting a potential shift in momentum towards bearish sentiment in the USD/CAD pair. Market participants are adopting a cautious stance ahead of U.S. inflation data; figures higher than expected could strengthen the U.S. Dollar (USD), and consequently, the USD/CAD pair may revisit the yearly high at the 1.3898 level. On the downside, the USD/CAD could find key support around the psychological level at 1.3800, followed by the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3778. A decisive break below the latter could force the USD/CAD pair to navigate the region around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3706, aligned with the significant level of 1.3700. It will be interesting to see the market's reaction to the dollar data in an hour. The market is in an uptrend channel and appears to have bounced off a daily supply zone. Stay tuned with us to follow developments. Happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
9
EUR/USD Bullish Channel Towards 1.10!Current Trading Range: The EUR/USD pair is trading within a narrow range of 1.0695–1.0755 during the early European session on Tuesday. Market Sentiment: Traders are cautious and waiting on the sidelines ahead of crucial economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the US. These data releases are expected to bring volatility to the market. Recent Movement: The EUR/USD has experienced a two-day uptrend, holding above the 20-day and 55-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). Technical indicators on the daily chart suggest a modest bullish bias. Key Level to Watch: A daily close below 1.0615 could negate the positive outlook, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. 4-Hour Chart Analysis: On the 4-hour chart, the pair is testing a short-term downward trendline around 1.0705, with support at 1.0655. A break above 1.0710 could lead to further strength, targeting 1.0735 and 1.0760. Conversely, a break below 1.0650 may trigger a bearish move towards 1.0635 and 1.0610. Previous Day's Movement: The EUR/USD rose on the previous day, finding support around 1.0560, driven by a weaker US Dollar and a decline in US yields. Market Focus: Attention is now on upcoming economic data releases, particularly the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for the next day. This report is anticipated to have significant implications for the market. US Dollar and Risk Sentiment: The US Dollar weakened during the American session, influenced by a pullback in US yields and increased risk appetite. Positive equity and commodity prices contributed to this sentiment. Potential Market Impact: The direction of the EUR/USD pair may be influenced by the outcome of the US CPI report. A higher-than-expected inflation rate could strengthen the US Dollar, while a softer reading could lead to a weaker dollar. Eurozone Data Releases: Eurostat is set to release employment and growth data from the third quarter, with an expected contraction of 0.1%. Additionally, ZEW survey results are also awaited.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
8
GBP/USD up at 1.25!The GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2250 on a quiet Monday. The pair printed a fresh daily high at 1.2259 on the back of Dollar weakness. Attention shifts toward UK employment figures and the critical US CPI data due on Tuesday. The GBP/USD gained momentum and pushed towards 1.2250 in the European session on Monday after spending the Asian session fluctuating in a tight channel slightly above 1.2200. The pair's near-term technical outlook suggests that sellers remain reluctant to bet on persistent Pound Sterling weakness. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak sacked Home Secretary Suella Braverman Monday morning to begin his reshuffle of the cabinet. James Cleverly got appointed as the new Home Secretary, and Sunak named former Prime Minister David Cameron as the new Foreign Secretary. On Tuesday, the UK's Office for National Statistics will release the jobs report, which will include wage inflation figures for October. Later in the day, October Consumer Price Index data from the US will be watched closely by market participants. Despite Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish comments last week, markets are still pricing in a more than 80% probability that the Fed will leave the policy rate unchanged in December. The price has started moving after the rebound on the trendline intersection. The market could break the supply zone just above and then retest it before moving upwards. Leave a like and comment to support our work, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
XAUUSD Finally the price is ready to go up!The price of gold (XAU/USD) has dropped to approximately $1,940 and faces further decline due to several challenges. Factors include the absence of significant tensions in the Middle East, hawkish statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and uncertainty preceding the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October on Tuesday. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming US inflation data, which is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy for its final 2023 meeting in December. Despite the potential for persistent inflation data leading to a December interest rate hike, markets generally anticipate the Fed to maintain unchanged rates. Jerome Powell and colleagues emphasized an ongoing commitment to curbing inflation, with Powell expressing uncertainty about the current interest rates' adequacy. St. Louis Fed interim President Kathleen O'Neill Paese supported Powell's stance, cautioning against ruling out further rate hikes. The subdued appeal for gold is also attributed to the lack of a significant escalation in the Israel-Palestine conflict. The US Dollar Index (DXY) faces pressure, and there's anticipation that the Fed might initiate a rate-cutting cycle in mid-2024, as projected by economists at Morgan Stanley. Technical analysis indicates that the gold price is declining toward $1,930, with near-term demand impacted by various challenges, and the correction extending close to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,940. The next support level is expected near the 200-day EMA at approximately $1,915.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
EUR/USD: Stalemate with Two Scenarios!The EUR/USD pair starts the week with a positive outlook in the early hours of Monday's Asian trading. The pair's rebound is supported by the consolidating stance of the US Dollar. Bouncing from last week's low of 1.0656, the pair remains capped below the 1.0700 threshold. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has retraced below the 50 levels, while EUR/USD has fallen below the mid-point of the ascending regression channel, indicating a bearish short-term outlook. If EUR/USD fails to stabilize above 1.0680 (the mid-point of the ascending channel), sellers may remain interested. In this scenario, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) acts as temporary support at 1.0660 before 1.0640 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of the latest downtrend) and 1.0620 (lower limit of the ascending channel, 100-period SMA). EUR/USD came under bearish pressure and declined below 1.0700 in the late American session on Thursday. The pair remains relatively quiet Friday morning, while technical analysis indicates a slight bearish bias. Participating in a monetary policy panel organized by the International Monetary Fund on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the data-dependent approach. "We are making decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation," Powell stated. However, Powell noted they are not confident that they have achieved a 'sufficiently restrictive' policy stance to bring inflation down to 2% over time. This comment provided a boost to the US Dollar (USD) and caused a decline in EUR/USD. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index opened in negative territory on Friday, reflecting a cautious market stance. Meanwhile, US stock index futures were last seen rising between 0.1% and 0.3%. In case Wall Street's main indexes rebound following Thursday's decline, the USD could struggle to continue to outperform its rivals. On the other hand, a negative shift in risk sentiment could weigh on EUR/USD ahead of the weekend. In fact, the market is in a stalemate between a demand zone and a supply zone. I expect either a pullback towards 1.062, where we have a demand zone at the Fibonacci level of 0.62 before a long restart, or a further upward move towards 1.074 with a subsequent fall on the rebound due to pressure from the sell order block. Let me know what you think, happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
6
GBP/USD retraces to 1.18 on a bearish channel.This passage provides a comprehensive overview of the GBP/USD currency pair's recent performance, along with relevant economic indicators and factors influencing the market. Let's break down the key points: GDP Data from the UK: The UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 0.6% in Q3, surpassing expectations. Despite this positive data, GBP/USD continued to decline. Technical Analysis: Various technical indicators, including an ascending trend line, Fibonacci retracement levels, and Simple Moving Averages (SMA), are mentioned to highlight key support and resistance levels. Strong support is identified at 1.2200, with additional levels at 1.2140 and 1.2100 if the pair falls below the support. On the upside, resistance levels are noted at 1.2250, 1.2275, and 1.2300. Current GBP/USD Situation: GBP/USD struggled to rebound, trading slightly above 1.2200 after four consecutive days of negative performance. Additional UK Economic Data: Industrial Production stagnated, Manufacturing Production increased slightly, and Total Business Investment declined in the third quarter. However, these mixed macroeconomic data did not significantly impact GBP/USD. US Dollar Strength: The US Dollar strengthened against other currencies following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell expressed uncertainty about achieving a sufficiently restrictive stance to bring inflation down to the 2% target. Market Expectations: The CME Group FedWatch Tool indicates a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy. If other policymakers adopt a similar tone, the USD could strengthen further. Market Sentiment: US stock index futures show little change on the day, and a positive shift in risk sentiment could limit USD gains in the American session. This information provides a comprehensive picture of the factors influencing the GBP/USD pair, combining technical analysis, economic indicators, and central bank statements to give readers a broader context for understanding the currency pair's movements.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
SP500 Pullback Coming Before 5000!Closing on November 10: The SP500 index recorded a brilliant rise, gaining 1.56%. The opening occurred at 4,364.1 points, below the highs of the previous session. Throughout the day, the quotes strengthened, closing at 4,415.2 points, near the session highs. Status and Trend Analysis: Short-term trend: Signs of strengthening with immediate resistance at 4,439. Key levels: Resistance 2: 4,507 Resistance 1: 4,439 Support 1: 4,375 Support 2: 4,326 Bullish strength: Supported by the upward crossover of the 5-day moving average over the 35-day moving average. Technical implications: Indicate a possible continuation of the bullish phase towards the level of 4,507. Additional Information: The analysis suggests that the index shows bullish strength, supported by technical indicators. The next resistance could be tested at 4,439, with prospects for further increase towards 4,507. However, it is essential to monitor support levels to understand the stability of the current trend. Personally, I expect an upward movement to the level of 4450, where the price may feel the physiological pressure of the 0.79% Fibonacci level and experience a pullback with a subsequent descent into the order block area before resuming or continuing to decline towards the retracement of the bearish trendline. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
Strong Surge in the US Technology Index and Growth ProspectsThe USA technology stocks index has experienced a significant increase, closing the session with a gain exceeding 2.25% compared to previous values. The day started with determination, opening at 15,252.4 points, slightly below the highs of the previous session. Throughout the day, quotations strengthened, culminating in a closing upswing at 15,529.1, near session highs. Analyzing the short-term technical picture of the Nasdaq 100, there is an upward acceleration of the curve with a target set at 15,653.9. There is a risk of a descent to 15,279.7, but this temporary correction should not compromise the solidity of the current trend. The outlook points to an extension of the bullish trend, with a target of 16,028. Farewell and have a great weekend from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
Gold Price Trends and Federal Reserve InsightsThe downward trend in gold prices persisted after the opening of the U.S. market, with XAU/USD holding near $1,940, marking a four-week low. Despite subdued demand for U.S. dollars, gold is set to conclude the week with significant losses. On the daily chart, there is a new attempt by bulls as the XAU/USD pair seeks to surpass the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the ascent from $1,810.41 to $2,009.34, currently positioned at $1,962.20. Examining the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD faced selling pressure around the downward 20-period SMA, slipping below the flat 100-period SMA. A rise above this indicator could stimulate buyer interest, leading to further intraday gains. Meanwhile, technical indicators on this time frame are pointing upward within negative levels. The U.S. dollar initially showed strength in the first half of the day but reversed course after the U.S. market opening. Consequently, XAU/USD bounced from the weekly low of $1,944.71 to trade above $1,960. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin provided an optimistic assessment, describing the economy as "notably" healthy and acknowledging progress in addressing inflation. However, he emphasized that the task is not yet complete, citing persistently high inflation. Barkin also expressed the opinion that an economic recession might be less severe than past recessions, highlighting a more balanced labor market. In a separate event, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic reiterated that the full effects of recent policies are yet to manifest. Let me know what you think, have a great day from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
EUR/USD Dynamics & Market FactorsEUR/USD Pair: The EUR/USD pair is trading within a tight range around the 1.0700 level during the Asian session, lacking a clear intraday direction. US Treasury Bond Yields and Equities: A recent significant pullback in US Treasury bond yields and a rally in US equity markets have not provided support for the US Dollar, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset, contributing to a favorable environment for the EUR/USD pair. Federal Reserve Rate Hike Path: Uncertainty surrounds the future path of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Recent indications from the Fed that financial conditions may already be tight enough to control inflation have led to the perception that the Fed might pause its interest rate hike campaign. US Monthly Jobs Report: The less robust US monthly jobs report released on Friday has reinforced the notion that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current policy stance for the third consecutive time in December. Hawkish Fed Officials: Some Federal Reserve officials have adopted an assertive tone and recognized the resilience of the US economy. German Industrial Production: Tuesday's data revealed a more significant decline than expected in German industrial production in September, which could weigh on the Euro and restrict the potential upside for the EUR/USD pair. European Central Bank (ECB) Rate Hikes: Expectations suggest that further rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) may not be on the agenda, indicating a bearish outlook for the Euro. Market Drivers: The release of the final German Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Eurozone Retail Sales data, along with US bond yields and overall market sentiment, will influence the US Dollar and potentially create short-term trading opportunities for the EUR/USD pair.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3