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Looking ahead into March 2023 (DXY)In February, we saw the US Dollar Index (DXY) reject the 100.85 price area to climb strongly to the upside due to several key events 1) Federal Reserve hiked rates to 4.75%. Although the initial reaction was a big drop to test the low of 100.85, the comments accompanying the rate decision indicated that further rate increases could be expected as inflation has eased but remains elevated. 2) Surprising Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) A massive surprise to the market with a print of 517K (Forecast: 193K) this signaled that the US economy was still performing strongly, despite the ongoing interest rate increases. The DXY shot up to test the 103.75 price level over the next couple of days following the NFP release. 3) Elevated Consumer Price Index (CPI) Markets were widely anticipating that US inflation growth should have slowed down from 6.5% to 6.2%. However, the CPI data was released at 6.4%, which indicated a slight slowdown (just not as much as anticipated). This played to the previous narrative from the FOMC that while inflation was easing, it was still elevated. With an increased likelihood that the FOMC would continue with its interest rate hikes, the DXY climbed steadily to the upside, breaking the 103.75 level to climb steadily up to the 105.50 resistance level. Now as we head into March and the DXY is retracing from the 105.50 price level, where could prices head to? In the lead up to the major news events, the DXY could continue to retrace lower to retest the 104 price level and support area. 1) Will we see a repeat surprise on the NFP? It is probably unlikely that we'll get a massive surprise again for the NFP this month. However, any positive data release could see the DXY renew its climb to the upside. 2) Focus is on the CPI As indicated above, February's CPI was released at 6.4% which was higher than expected. A similar release this month would pretty much cement the Federal Reserve's decision regarding a rate hike, bringing further upside to the DXY. 3) Federal Funds Rate In the recently released meeting minutes, it was highlighted that while all members supported a 25bps rate hike, some would have supported a decision to raise rates by 50bps. This shows a level of hawkishness within the FOMC, which could be crucial in the decision this month. Employment and CPI data would be the deciding factor between a 25 or 50bps rate hike. However, remember that the terminal rate is 5.25% and with rates at 4.75%, we are very close!! We'll have to pay attention to comments regarding a shift in the terminal rates and increased speculation about a pivot to come from the FOMC. Based on the points discussed above, I am anticipating overall further upside for the DXY, but Price could first retest the 103.75 to 104 support area. If the support level holds, this could be a good base for price to rebound and trade back toward the 105.50 resistance area. Beyond that, the next resistance level is at 107. Alternatively, if the price breaks strongly below 104, then the next support level at 102.60 would come into play.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
6
DXY GAME ON!! SPIKE COMING FOR THE DOLLAR?Last week's surprising jobs report sticky inflation, and persistent and frothy financial conditions may force the Federal Reserve members into a more hawkish position, forcing them to keep the heat on interest rates and the money supply. Many market participants were looking for a pause in rate hikes as soon as next month and possibly a pivot to lowering rates shortly after. This new data is going against what the Fed was trying to accomplish in this rate hike cycle, which is to keep inflation within mandated guidelines, and to tame loose financial conditions, dashing the hopes for a pivot in policy anytime soon and pushing that pivot out for far longer than some were expecting. This will put upward pressure on bond yields and a dollar so heavily shorted causing the pivot crowd to close out some of their short positions as the Fed puts the screws to the money supply and inflation. This classic cup and handle setup illustrates the effect the Fed Policy may have on the dollar.
TVC:DXYLong
by Journeyman124
The yield curve has to un-invert eventually… right? (Part 2)This week, we thought it will be interesting to review the trade from last week given the reaction post-FOMC, as well as discuss an alternative way to set up this trade. Firstly, let’s review the post-FOMC/employment data reaction. - Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside, as over half a million jobs were added way above the estimates of a sub 200K number. - Unemployment rate continues to fall further, reaching a 53-year low of 3.4% A clear re-pricing has occurred since last Friday’s better-than-expected jobs data and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. With markets now expecting 1 more rate hike in May, bringing the peak rate up from the 475 -500 bps range to the 500-525 bps range. Keeping this in mind, we go back to our analysis last week to understand this situation and historical precedence. While the time for a pause in rate hike seems to be pushed back, in the grand scheme of things, we think that this has only kept the window of opportunity for this trade open for longer and at a more attractive entry point now. Without repeating ourselves too much, we encourage readers to take a look at our idea last week which explores the historical correlation between the peaking of yield curve inversion and the pause in Fed rate hikes. Link to our last week’s idea: This week, let’s tap into a different instrument. Here, we aim to take a short position on the 2Y-10Y yield differential by creating a portfolio of Treasury futures to express this view. To do so, we would have to first select the 2 instruments, the 2-Yr Treasury futures is a straightforward choice for the short end. But for the 10-Yr leg, we have a choice of the '10-Yr Treasury Note Futures' vs the 'Ultra 10-Yr Treasury Note Futures'. Digging into the contract specification, the 'Ultra 10-Yr Treasury Note Futures' provide a better proxy for the true 10-year duration exposure as the delivery requirements are for Treasuries with maturities between 9year 5 months and 10 years. In comparison, the underlying of '10-Yr Treasury Note Futures' has a maturity between 6 year 6 months and 10 years. With contract selection out of the way, the next step is to calculate the Dollar Neutral spread. This requires us to identify the DV01 of the front and back legs of the spread and try to match them. This is to ensure that the entire position remains as close to dollar neutral as possible, so we can get a 'purer' exposure to the yield difference between the front and back legs, and parallel moves are negated. CME publishes articles on this topic to explain the setting up of a DV01 spread clearer than we can explain. You can find them attached in the reference section below. You can handily find the DV01 of the Cheapest To Deliver (CTD) securities on CME’s website. In this case, we are looking at the 2Yr and Ultra 10Yr Treasury Futures to set up the trade. With the DV01 of the 2Yr at 34.04 and the DV01 of the Ultra 10Yr at 96.26. The spread ratio can be calculated as 96.26/34.04 = 2.83. Rounding this to the nearest whole number, we would need 3 lots of2-Yr Treasury Future and 1 lot of Ultra 10-Yr Treasury Future, to keep the DV01 equal (neutral) for both legs of this portfolio. Given our view of the 2Yr-10Yr yield spread turning lower, we want to short the yield spread. Yield and prices move inversely, hence, to short the yield spread, we long the Treasury Futures spread as it is quoted in price. We can long 3 ZTH3 Futures (2Y Treasury Future) and short 1 TNH3 futures (Ultra 10Y Treasury Future) to complete 1 set of the spread. However, since the 2-Yr Treasury Futures has a notional value of 200,000 while the Ultra 10Y Treasury Futures a notional of $100,000, the price ratio will be 6:1 when the position/leg ratio in the spread trade is 3:1. As such the current level would provide us with an entry point of roughly 494 with a minimal move in Ultra 10yrs representing 15.625 USD and that in 2Y representing 7.8125 USD. While slightly more complex in setting up, this trade allows us another alternative to express the same view on the yield curve spread differential. Being able to execute the trade via different instruments allows you to pick the most liquid markets to trade or take advantage of mispricing in the markets. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZT1!Long
by inspirante
6
The yield curve has to un-invert eventually… right?Those who have been reading our past 2 ideas will know we’ve been harping on and on about expected rate path and policy timelines. Why the recent obsession you ask? Because we think we’re on the cusp of major turning points. So, for the third time, let’s look at the market’s expected policy rate path. With FOMC coming up this week, we are expecting a 25bps hike followed by some commentary/guidance on the next cause of action. Based on CME’s Fedwatch tool, markets are expecting a last hike of 25bps in the March FOMC before a pause in the hiking cycle. Now keep that in mind. One interesting relationship we can try to observe is how the 2Yr-10Yr yield spread behaves in relation to where the Fed’s rate is. We note a few things here. Firstly, the ‘peak’ point of the 2Yr-10Yr spread seems to happen right around the point when rate hikes are paused. With the Fed likely to pause as soon as March, we seem to be on the same path, setting up for a potential decline in the spread. Secondly, the average of the past 3 inversions lasted for around 455 days, and if you count just the start of the inversion to the peak, we’re looking at an average of 215 Days. Based on historical averages, we are past the middle mark and have also likely peaked, with current inversion roughly 260 days deep. Looking at the shorter end of the yield curve, we can apply the same analysis on the 3M-10Yr yield spread. The ‘peak’ point of the 3M-10Yr yield spread is marked closer to the point when the Fed cuts, except in 2006, while the average number of days in inversion was 219 days and the average number of days to ‘peak’ inversion was 138 days. With the current inversion at 105 days for the 3M-10Yr Yield spread, we are likely halfway, but the peak is likely not yet in. (Although eerily close to when the Fed is likely to announce its last hike, March FOMC, 51 days away). Comparing the 2 yield curve spreads, we think a stronger case can be made for the 2Yr-10Yr spread having peaked and likely to un-invert soon. Handily, CME has the Micro Treasury Yield Futures, quoted in yield terms, which allows us to express this view in a straightforward manner allaying the complications with DV01 calculation. We create the short yield spread position by taking a short position in the Micro 2-Yr Yield Futures and a long position in the Micro 10-Yr Yield Futures, at an entry-level of 0.623, with 1 basis point move equal to 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CBOT_MINI:2YY1!Short
by inspirante
9
VIX long, but how long?VIX price movement is clearly narrowing from a charting technical view, but within the economic fundamentals we have the FED raising rates at an extremely fast pace into a slowdown. Their publicly stated inflation projection was clearly wrong, I highly doubt they will squash inflation with much accuracy given these blunt force tools. For this reason the VIX could go well beyond the 35-40 range if the FED over raised rates. Since Powell was guessing on inflation after injecting more money into the system than ever before(no data to support obviously), it’s fair to assume there is no data to support the current pace and magnitude of raises in this slowing environment. If the current pace is perfect(again no data it would be almost lucky) then the VIX could fall from 35. My base case is the VIX goes over 40 and the FED cuts rates to fix their second mess later this year.
TVC:VIXLong
by bgreer009
6
Powell's Power!As of recently we have been in a small bull run. Bulls have been pumping on bad news, being dumb and relentlessly rallying. This is normal for bulls though so what can we expect? Bulls gonna do what bulls gonna do! We are at a strong resistance/supply level however, the bulls have been very violent and are out for blood as they aim to plow through this resistance/supply zone. In a few days we get the new interest rate numbers and if the FED decides to pause the rate hike then the bulls will go crazy and pump spy even higher. A rate hike will most likely drag spy down a bit and put us into lower 400s or higher 390s but, lately bulls have been pumping on bad numbers so we cannot accurately determine their next move. The bulls are at the end of a tunnel and they see the light so they will not stop at any costs, join the rally or get stomped shorting. I'm not a bull or a bear but the trend is your friend, that is if you can spot it.
AMEX:SPY
by MuhWhipski
When downside volatility becomes an advantage.It’s been a while since we looked at the Russell 2000. For the uninitiated, the Russell 2000 index is a small-cap stock market index that is made up of the smallest 2000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The small-cap nature means a few things, volatility tends to be higher for one. And capturing this downside volatility using the Russell 2000 as compared with the S&P 500 has almost always proven more fruitful. When to take this trade you may ask? The recession bellwether indicator of the 2Y – 10Y yield spread is a simple place to start. With the benefit of hindsight, shorting each of the indexes at the peak ‘inversion’ points proves to be a decently successful strategy. Especially so using the Russell 2000. So the next question to ask is if we are near the peak point of inversion? To answer this, we have to circle back to research from last week, where we discussed the expected rate path for the Federal Reserve (Fed). In short, markets seem to be pricing in a Fed pause, followed by a pivot in the coming year. Looking back at the charts, this shift in stance (or pause) highlighted in the top chart generally marks the turning points for the 2y-10y yield curve inversion, highlighted in the bottom chart. Therefore, with markets expecting a pause as early as the first quarter, we suspect that the turning point for the yield curve inversion is just around the corner. On price action, the 1900 level proves to be of significant resistance, with multiple attempts to break through being rejected. As prices creep towards this resistance level once again, we think this might just provide another attractive opportunity for trading. Zooming out to a daily timeframe, the 0.382 Fibonacci levels marked by the previous high and low, also coincide close to the resistance levels on the shorter timeframe. The proven downside volatility, along with the coming turning point in the yield curve inversion, keeps us bearish on the Russell 2000. Additionally, the price action points to significant resistance overhead, around the 1900 level. Setting our stop at 2035 level (one Average True Range away & close to the next resistance level) and take the profit level at 1690, with each 1-point increment in the Russell 2000 futures contract equal to 50$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by inspirante
10
im forced to assume dumpsterfire in real estate still oncomparisons are telling us simply when more people are able to borrow money real estate does better. interest rate data from whale crew tells us as long as we climb this indication the risk gets worse for borrowers. as long as those go in the specified direction im looking at higher prices in this fund. all is normal as in everyone is doing fine, and still doesnt want to buy a home; snafu reit. housing market could recover i just want these metrics to go the opposite way before i call it a recovery.
AMEX:DRV
by cerealpatterns
Where is the EURUSD headed amid the EU and US inflation lag?We hope everyone had a great start to the year! As we think about the year ahead and some of the major themes that might play out, the EU vs US inflation story is among those catching our eyes now in particular. “Inflation” & “Rate Hikes” were the main talking points for the US Economy in 2022 as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reacted and adjusted to stubborn inflation. On the other side of the Atlantic, a similar situation is playing out, albeit with a 4 to 7 months lag behind the US. Measuring the difference between the turning points, we can roughly determine the lag between the economic indicators. Headline Inflation (top chart) in the US moved up close to 7 months before the EU’s. Core Inflation (middle chart) in the EU lags the US by 5 months. Policy reaction (bottom chart) of the European Central Bank (ECB) lags the Fed by 4 months. This dynamic is important when trying to understand the path forward for the EURUSD currency pair as central banks watch inflation figures and adjust policy rates accordingly. EU & US policy rate differentials help us sniff out major turning points for the EURUSD pair. As seen in the chart above, the yield differential measured using CME Eurodollar and Euribor futures, started to widen in September 2021, which marked the EURUSD tumble from 1.160 all the way to 0.987. But now it appears the reverse is happening. Yield differentials are starting to close as markets adjust to slower pace of rate hike environment in the US while ECB still battles stubbornly high inflation. Using CME’s Fed watch tool as well as Bloomberg’s OIS Implied Euro interest rate probability tool, we can estimate the market implied forward path for the 2 major central bank’s policy rates. With the market expecting the Fed to pause rate hikes in March, while the ECB is expected to only pause in July. Interestingly, the difference in expected rate pivot is in line with the 4 to 7 months lag in economic conditions we established from the analysis above. As the ECB continues to hike while the Fed pauses, yield differential is likely to close, helping to boost Euro’s attractiveness against the USD. Coupled with the dollar’s downward momentum, This could favor further strength in the EURUSD pair. On the technical front, we see a golden cross with 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average for the pair. Coupled with an uptrend and spike in the RSI, it has marked the recent up trends remarkably well. If this historical behavior holds, the EURUSD pair could still have further room to run. For those who use Parabolic SAR, the current chart has just flipped back to a buy signal after the recent price consolidation. Given the ECB’s policy lag, dollar weakness, and a bullish technical setup, we lean on the buy side for the EURUSD pair. We set our stop at the 1.0520 level, and take profit level at 1.12800, with each 0.00005 increments per EUR in the EURUSD futures contract equal to 6.25$. Do also check out our previous EURUSD idea which played out nicely: The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Sources: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com Bloomberg
CME:6E1!Long
by inspirante
Will US CPI continue to feed the risk rally?Eyes on today's CPI Risk markets set the tone on Wednesday as traders reacted to hopes that Today’s CPI data will come in lower than expected. This could lead to small interest rate hikes and could even signal peak inflation. We’re anticipating tonight’s data and if it will live up to the hype. How much has been factored in? Could it be a disappointment if it fails to meet what’s being expected? It is simple. We see a solid beat to the downside we think risk markets will continue to rally. We see it come in as expected, or god forbid higher, and we think they will fall. We have done a quick price action review on the USD index and US30. Major risk currencies look to be consolidating at this stage in the lead-up. The USD index is trying to hold out at 103.00. US CPI data is due today at 12:30 am AEDT / 8:30 am ET.
EIGHTCAP:USDX
by Eightcap
2Yr Yield creeping up slowly$TNX is closed atm but if the 2yr is an indication it may open higher We re-entered long yield after FED day in DEC. Sold puts on $TYO & bought common Didn't go heavy because Monthly chart is a tad tough. Weekly 2yr trading decently above avg's again So far so good. We were bullish on STOCKS but that was late Oct/Early Nov, then went bearish for a bit, & are now NEUTRAL. EDIT: Keep in mind that in BULL MARKETS items can remain OVERBOUGHT for long periods of time.
TVC:US02Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
What should I pay for the sp500 if inflation continues?Where is fair value and where is cheap? Price and value are not the same. Price is snapshot of opinion while value is a moving story that changes over time. PE price to earnings is how we gauge value, at least one of the main ways. I like to think of PE in terms of years. How many years of earnings am I paying in advance for this underlying business?. It helps me realize that there's a big picture story in every asset that will take time to play out. Everything has fair value as well as premium and discount values. If we dont do the homework, we are just guessing and gambling. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar in one year. The current market interest rates is how we price the cost of time difference of money flows. Using interest rates to discount is how we calculate if an assets is expensive, fair, or discounted. SPY SPX QQQ NDX DIA DJI VT VTI
SP:SPX
by optionfarmers
4
EURAUD - Long EOD set upThe technicals give me the signal but if anyone is interested in rate hikes and fundamentals, may be take a slice of advice from Bank of America. © Oliver Levingston Merrill Lynch (Australia) oliverllewellyn.levingston@bofa.com • The RBA will likely deliver a third consecutive 25bp hike next week. A cooler monthly inflation print has investors betting on a lower terminal rate in 2023 • The AU curve still looks too steep and we see inflation risks as increasingly skewed to the upside. Slowing down, not a slowdown We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike the cash rate by another 25bp to 3.1% at its 6 December meeting. Markets are pricing in a 76% chance of a 25bps hike (24% chance of a pause) as at the time of writing. The message will echo its determination to keep the economy on ‘an even keel’, balancing the challenge of suppressing rising inflation with the risk that rate hikes could tip the economy into recession. The RBA has moved cautiously on rate hikes: not only was it slow to lift off, waiting until May 2022 to do so; it also surprised markets by downshifting to a 25bp hike in October, becoming the first major DM central bank to slowdown the pace of rate increases. It then stuck to its gradual hiking pace at its November meeting, despite a strong 3Q CPI print (see RBA review: Sticking to 25, 1 November 2022). The RBA has cited the high frequency of its meetings – the RBA meets 11 times, the FOMC and ECB each have 8 meetings scheduled per year – as a reason why it can afford to take a gradual approach. Market pricing reflects increasingly dovish sentiment – markets are now pricing rates to rise to just 3.5% in mid-2023, down about 30bps in a month. Optimism on rates grew after the RBA’s monthly CPI for October, released on 30 November, showed both the headline inflation slowing to 6.9%YoY (vs. 7.3% in Sep) and the trimmed mean measure easing to 5.3%YoY (5.4% in Sep). However, we caution that for October, the new monthly series contains only 62% of the price data used in the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) quarterly CPI – it omits, for example, new information on many administered prices such as utilities, which are not priced until the final month of the quarter. For these reasons, the RBA has stated that “the quarterly CPI is likely to remain the principal measure of CPI inflation in Australia for the foreseeable future,”1 making it premature to call for a peaking in inflation based on the October monthly CPI print. Nor does it change the fact that inflation is likely to remain well above the RBA’s target band of 2-3%. Yet the RBA will likely remain less hawkish than its counterparts overseas. Australia’s Wage Price Index (WPI) has only recently started to pick up above 3%. The RBA does not yet see signs of a wage-price spiral, though it has stressed the need to remain vigilant. It noted in its November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) that “reports of higher labour costs contributing to price increases have so far been largely contained to price increases have so far been largely contained to a few specific sectors.” A softer retail trade print (-0/2% MoM) and Governor Lowe’s apology before the Senate for the RBA’s (abandoned) promise to hold interest rates steady out to 2024 have added to growing expectations of a lower terminal RBA rate. For these reasons, the risk of a recession in AU in 2023 remains a low probability and the risks to inflation remain skewed to the upside, in our view. The RBA’s restrained approach, sustained strength in the labour market and a continued boost from a record term of trade make an economic contraction less likely than peers. We do not have cuts in our profile. Waiting for the wave The main risk reflected in market pricing and the RBA’s published commentary is that households have not yet sustained the full impact of rate hikes. We have pencilled in hikes until May 2023 just before the mortgage rate reset wave accelerates in mid-2023. The maturity profile of fixed-rate mortgages taken out when lending rates were as low as 2% suggests the “cliff” may have traction. The line of questioning at Governor Lowe’s attendance before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee and public speeches from the RBA confirm that fixed-rate mortgage resets are at the front of their minds when they consider risks to the economy. Yet Australia continues to enjoy meaningful protection from downside risks, in our view. A positive terms-of-trade shock that has reduced Australian Government funding requirements also means the challenges of housing headwinds should be easy for policymakers to counteract should we see signs of household distress in 2023. At the same time, a long period of low unemployment is likely to generate higher wages and partly offset the dampening effect of rising loan payments on consumer demand, reducing the risk of a housing-led downturn. On the upside, the prospects of a substantial shift away from COVID Zero policies in China continue to gather pace as a steady stream of announcements suggest the country is like to gradually reopen in 2023. The Chinese reopening could boost Australian GDP and increase the scope for the RBA to tighten rates further. We see the RBA holding rates at 4.1% from May 2023. A rise in cash rates and signs of economic resilience should mean a flatter curve. We have also maintained a view that the AU 2s10s curve is too steep relative to other developed markets (a positive slope of 40bp for AU government bonds compared to -72 for the US). We continue to like a box flattener (AU steepener vs US flattener) and outright AU curve flatteners.
Long
by Macrobriefing