EURUSD buy tradeEuro is bullish, time to take some profit
Fibo retracement and good ratio benefit
Major supp&ress
Ratio
breakdown of Gold vs Dow relationshipAll time low for GOLD/DOW ratio in futures. Violates horizontal trendline.
I think it means that it might go lower. If so, short that relationship.
81% probability trade on XRT (Put Ratio spread) High probability trade on XRT with no risk to the upside. Max profit at $41 our break even at $39.85.
The trade:
Sold Two (-2) 41 Puts for every one (-1) 42 Put for a credit of $0.15 (per contract).
ETHBTC is in for a BIG jumpBased upon how ETH has been received in the cryptosphere, as well as in the corporate world, I'd say that "the ratio" is severely oversold.
You look at any news station and see that BTC is taking a PR beating of epic proportions.
ETHBTC up. Maybe to new record highs.
Earnings trade on Tesla (Custom)Made a custom Earnings trade on TSLA. Originally was going to make a bearish trade, but since today we had a over 2% negative move down, I decided to add the ratio spread to the downside.
Sold the 330/340 Call spread for $1.40
and the (1)302.5/(2)295 Put ratio spread for $.20
Total credit $160
Max win is $905 at 295 price
Max loss to the upside is $840
Naked to the downside below $286
74% probability trade on QQQ (Synthetic Call Ratio)With equities still rallying I can redeploy another trade on the Q's. If it continues to go higher it will get to our max profit zone, if it starts to drop we don't have any risk and still make money. Worst case scenario is that we continue this nonstop rally without mercy then we would be basically short from 136.50 which would be at the all times high.
The trade: Synthetic Call Ratio spread on QQQ for $.50 credit per contract.
Bought one 134 Call for every two 135 Call for a 2:1 Ratio spread with no risk to the downside and our max win at 135. Then bought the 141 Call to reduce the capital requirement, essentially making this a synthetic Call ratio spread.
By buying the delta .05 call we reduce our capital requirements for the trade from around $3k to $450 per contract and reduce our credit received by only $5 per contract. Pretty good trade off in my mind.
Our break even is at $136.5 giving us a 74% chance we make money on this trade.
Neutral - ATM Ratio on TLT with no risk to the upsideSimilar to the FXE trade we can make another at the money ratio spread on TLT. With a 71.8% chance of profit. We make money as long as we stay above 115.60 in the next 44 days.
HKDJPY target calculationHKDJPY has broken the support last week, see the chart for where is it heading
a nice sipmple way to reenter short euro seems to be for some more decline and a nice short enter seems to presenting itself with a nice ratio
Wolfe Wave USDCHF ShortShorting due to a Wolfe Wave from the green zone.
Confluence is the ABCD pattern and RSI divergence.
nzdusd flg pattern fitting rules for flag now we wait for completion of cypher on 4hr to see what movement is to come
Double Ratio on Natural Gas (NGAS)The last 50 days, we got a nice move of over 50% in Natural Gas over 50%. I just closed a covered Strangle for a nice profit and its now time to redeploy, since I think the price is going to slow down.
Price is over extended above the 20EMA and I expect a correction, so I just made one of my favorite trades. The double Ratio. I bought the 4.25 Call and sold two of the 4.45Calls and bought the 3.45 Put and sold the 3.25 Put.
This trade has a 74% chance to make money and my target is a profit of $800. Since I am using $2,100 to have the trade on, I am expecting a Return of 38% in 56 days (Not bad).
We make money as long as price stays in the green zone between the prices of 2.969 - 4.73 and since We have our Moving average above our break even in the downside we would need a pretty strong move down to get tested.
Spreader Pro Plot the spread of any two securities as -,+,/ or *
This enhanced version adds the 50 day sma of the spread as a gray plot
Another free and very useful indicator courtesy of Tarzan.
S&P 500 - SPY Extremely Bullish Indications - Multi ConfirmationI have been operating on the assumption that the Dow Jones TVC:DJI will reach 20,000 as it certainly Makes America Great(er) Again(Than before 20,000)!!! *insert charming sentence about the interrelated...ness'... of markets* Thus the S&P 500 will likely also rally... that takes us to the end of the macro (arguably still mostly technical) analysis portion, thank you for your patience!
Technicals have been setting up another bull-run. I've linked to yesterdays post based on PCRs that are showing extremes... i.e. today the OEX's Put/Call Ratio PCOEX is at .276 (This is the cagefree-shark-diving-with-chunks of-raw-meet-tied-to-your-body degree of extreme...ness'...) --- Also, the SPX Put/Call Ratio PCSPX is sitting at a 1.624 --- Please don't ask which ones are contrarian, seriously...
If you saw the chart published yesterday that I have linked to this one, you would see that I had included a pennant, and flag version... I now conclude that multiple TFs have validated and confirmed it to be a rectangle, which was my thought all along. Many folks post without extended-hours included and thus base their judgement on an incomplete data set... It is crucial to include and analyze as much of the picture as possible! Some will have you believe this to be a right angled triangle (flat bottom, descending top) but in my opinion that is a stretch, if even an option due to the nearly zero touches of the proposed support... Check this out for yourself, drop a comment or two!
You want more bullishness?
More than 2.5 billion shares have advanced in last 36 hours across US equities markets...
Most of which did so today...
While I could list many more, that would leave no work for you intrepid technical detectives of sorts... quite frankly I couldn't sleep knowing I was such a selfish taker'... Ironically my wife sleeps quite well.
Oh, nearly forgot... you may be wondering about my wave analysis... self-awareness is crucial in trading, and well, I didn't leave out "Elliot" by accident... Infact, I was trying to not use the word 'analysis' either but my hunger has overtaken my desire for grammatical accuracy... I have great respect for EWA and those who have mastered it, the only mastery I have related to EWA is a mastery of knowing I know very little about it... Despite the obvious ring to it, I am afraid that really isn't a mastery...
Nevertheless, based on some of the Elliot Wave Analysis I've seen from the TradingView community you could very well confuse me for Mr. Elliot Wave himself... relax, I am obviously kidding... clearly I'm nearly entirely half joking. On a side note, what are the chances of such a well-suited lastname? This must be why one school of thought has always credited the theory to his parents, they often bring up the 83 months it took Elliot to successfully pass the Grade 2 English and Math literacy examinations (Knowing the first five letters in the alphabet, counting to to five, sometimes counting to five and being told to start again but count up to two less than last time... Sometimes combining the two, i.e. Please count to five and then say the first three letters in the alphabet)... If you ask me, this is a bunch of total b.s.!
I digress, please consider my wave counts as you would the previous paragraph - If by some minuscule chance they are correct, the implications would imply the start of a massive rally... aka you would want to go long, and stay long...
The counts did not contribute to, or affect, my sentiment and analysis!
P.S. Please feel free to leave a comment or five, this is a community after-all! ... I am fine with constructive criticism, destructive criticism, compliments, personal insults and even childish name-calling....just PLEASE have some sort of opinion, and whatever you do, don't be a fence sitter, I hate fence sitters!!!!
Gold/Stocks ratio: Risk off rally?It appears like we're about to see a pullback in equities, or at least a rally in gold and silver, and a pullback in the dollar here. It might have to do with the Italian referendum as well, but we'll know soon enough.
Breaking this trendline would signal risk off sentiment, further validating the gold and silver long ideas I've posted.
What I'm not sure of yet, is the extent of the rally to come, and wether it is part of a retracement in a long term trend that has turned down (this is possible), or simply the market is sideways and trendless (forming a giant consolidation or sideways pattern, or even a triangle).
You can set alert to know when (if) this trendline breaks, set it to 'crossing up', 'once' using tradingview's handy alert system.
Once CCI hits +100, we might get a set up to flip short gold, on weakness, so we have to remain vigilant as gold approaches the 1240-1250 zone.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Gold/Silver ratio: Long term bearish declineThe Gold/Silver ratio shows an interesting setup here, and correlation to inverted SPX, which points to the nature of the ratio's movement tied to risk off/on phases. This has to do with the real world applications silver has as an industrial metal, compared to gold's function as a store of value and risk off protection.
I think we can see a long term decline, implying the price of silver will either appreciate or depreciate less than the price of gold, in comparison to it at least.
It's probably a good trade to take as a pair, which if you're using futures, implies you use a 2 to 3 ratio, selling 2 GC contracts and buying 3 SI contracts to enter the trade with reduced margin requirements. (I think there's a new contract for the ratio alone, but not familiar with it). You should size the trade based on risking 1% to 2% max if the price were to go against you coming back to 70.43.
In the case of CFD or FX traders, you could open trades in the XAUUSD and XAGUSD instruments, or using this XAUXAG or XAGXAU contracts if they exist in your platform. If you own physical gold, exchanging it for silver makes sense at this point (if you didn't already).
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Very high probability trade on IYRIYR haved moved over 8% in the last 2 months. With an IV percentile of over 60% we can sell premium and get a higher probability trade. I will be using a combination of ratio spreads Selling the (2) 73 and (2) 78 Puts and buying (1) 75 put and (1) 81 put. This will give us the potential to win $330 per trade and giving us a break even of $72.84 with a 85% chance of profit. The price would have to move another 8% down for us to be in trouble.
