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Ratio

Put Ratio on SPY (86% Probability)New Year, and the market continues to go up with no mercy. With the over extension of the 20 EMA, Eventually it will have to make a correction, so I am trying to pin the down move for max profit at the nearest high volume area. Implied Volatility is still very low with the VIX at ~9 and IVR of 14, but we have to keep trading. Would make money as long as we stay above $262.40 in the next 42 days. The Trade: 42 days to Expiration +1 269 Put -2 266 Put For a .64 Credit Probability of profit 86% Max Profit $364 at the 266 Price point
AMEX:SPYLong
by AlexanderGotay
2
86% probability trade on Costco (Ratio Spread) After last earnings Costco had a 14% down move. If we take into consideration last year, we have a CVPOC at around $150 Price, and in the shorter term the VPOC is around $167 (2017). That means that those prices are the ones that have traded the most and considered fair for the stock. With an IV Rank at 67 we can sell some premium, so given the down move I sold a 3:1 Ratio spread for $1.66. This gives us a max profit of $665 at the $150 level and if it stays above $155 price we would be making $166 at expiration. Our probabilities of profit are very high at 86% The trade: Sell (3) AUG18 155 PUT Buy (1) AUG18 150 PUT
NASDAQ:COSTLong
by AlexanderGotay
4
74% probability trade on QQQ (Synthetic Call Ratio)With equities still rallying I can redeploy another trade on the Q's. If it continues to go higher it will get to our max profit zone, if it starts to drop we don't have any risk and still make money. Worst case scenario is that we continue this nonstop rally without mercy then we would be basically short from 136.50 which would be at the all times high. The trade: Synthetic Call Ratio spread on QQQ for $.50 credit per contract. Bought one 134 Call for every two 135 Call for a 2:1 Ratio spread with no risk to the downside and our max win at 135. Then bought the 141 Call to reduce the capital requirement, essentially making this a synthetic Call ratio spread. By buying the delta .05 call we reduce our capital requirements for the trade from around $3k to $450 per contract and reduce our credit received by only $5 per contract. Pretty good trade off in my mind. Our break even is at $136.5 giving us a 74% chance we make money on this trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by AlexanderGotay
6