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Ratio

86% probability trade on Costco (Ratio Spread) After last earnings Costco had a 14% down move. If we take into consideration last year, we have a CVPOC at around $150 Price, and in the shorter term the VPOC is around $167 (2017). That means that those prices are the ones that have traded the most and considered fair for the stock. With an IV Rank at 67 we can sell some premium, so given the down move I sold a 3:1 Ratio spread for $1.66. This gives us a max profit of $665 at the $150 level and if it stays above $155 price we would be making $166 at expiration. Our probabilities of profit are very high at 86% The trade: Sell (3) AUG18 155 PUT Buy (1) AUG18 150 PUT
NASDAQ:COSTLong
by AlexanderGotay
4
74% probability trade on QQQ (Synthetic Call Ratio)With equities still rallying I can redeploy another trade on the Q's. If it continues to go higher it will get to our max profit zone, if it starts to drop we don't have any risk and still make money. Worst case scenario is that we continue this nonstop rally without mercy then we would be basically short from 136.50 which would be at the all times high. The trade: Synthetic Call Ratio spread on QQQ for $.50 credit per contract. Bought one 134 Call for every two 135 Call for a 2:1 Ratio spread with no risk to the downside and our max win at 135. Then bought the 141 Call to reduce the capital requirement, essentially making this a synthetic Call ratio spread. By buying the delta .05 call we reduce our capital requirements for the trade from around $3k to $450 per contract and reduce our credit received by only $5 per contract. Pretty good trade off in my mind. Our break even is at $136.5 giving us a 74% chance we make money on this trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by AlexanderGotay
6
Double Ratio on Natural Gas (NGAS)The last 50 days, we got a nice move of over 50% in Natural Gas over 50%. I just closed a covered Strangle for a nice profit and its now time to redeploy, since I think the price is going to slow down. Price is over extended above the 20EMA and I expect a correction, so I just made one of my favorite trades. The double Ratio. I bought the 4.25 Call and sold two of the 4.45Calls and bought the 3.45 Put and sold the 3.25 Put. This trade has a 74% chance to make money and my target is a profit of $800. Since I am using $2,100 to have the trade on, I am expecting a Return of 38% in 56 days (Not bad). We make money as long as price stays in the green zone between the prices of 2.969 - 4.73 and since We have our Moving average above our break even in the downside we would need a pretty strong move down to get tested.
NYMEX:NG1!
by AlexanderGotay
2
S&P 500 - SPY Extremely Bullish Indications - Multi ConfirmationI have been operating on the assumption that the Dow Jones TVC:DJI will reach 20,000 as it certainly Makes America Great(er) Again(Than before 20,000)!!! *insert charming sentence about the interrelated...ness'... of markets* Thus the S&P 500 will likely also rally... that takes us to the end of the macro (arguably still mostly technical) analysis portion, thank you for your patience! Technicals have been setting up another bull-run. I've linked to yesterdays post based on PCRs that are showing extremes... i.e. today the OEX's Put/Call Ratio PCOEX is at .276 (This is the cagefree-shark-diving-with-chunks of-raw-meet-tied-to-your-body degree of extreme...ness'...) --- Also, the SPX Put/Call Ratio PCSPX is sitting at a 1.624 --- Please don't ask which ones are contrarian, seriously... If you saw the chart published yesterday that I have linked to this one, you would see that I had included a pennant, and flag version... I now conclude that multiple TFs have validated and confirmed it to be a rectangle, which was my thought all along. Many folks post without extended-hours included and thus base their judgement on an incomplete data set... It is crucial to include and analyze as much of the picture as possible! Some will have you believe this to be a right angled triangle (flat bottom, descending top) but in my opinion that is a stretch, if even an option due to the nearly zero touches of the proposed support... Check this out for yourself, drop a comment or two! You want more bullishness? More than 2.5 billion shares have advanced in last 36 hours across US equities markets... Most of which did so today... While I could list many more, that would leave no work for you intrepid technical detectives of sorts... quite frankly I couldn't sleep knowing I was such a selfish taker'... Ironically my wife sleeps quite well. Oh, nearly forgot... you may be wondering about my wave analysis... self-awareness is crucial in trading, and well, I didn't leave out "Elliot" by accident... Infact, I was trying to not use the word 'analysis' either but my hunger has overtaken my desire for grammatical accuracy... I have great respect for EWA and those who have mastered it, the only mastery I have related to EWA is a mastery of knowing I know very little about it... Despite the obvious ring to it, I am afraid that really isn't a mastery... Nevertheless, based on some of the Elliot Wave Analysis I've seen from the TradingView community you could very well confuse me for Mr. Elliot Wave himself... relax, I am obviously kidding... clearly I'm nearly entirely half joking. On a side note, what are the chances of such a well-suited lastname? This must be why one school of thought has always credited the theory to his parents, they often bring up the 83 months it took Elliot to successfully pass the Grade 2 English and Math literacy examinations (Knowing the first five letters in the alphabet, counting to to five, sometimes counting to five and being told to start again but count up to two less than last time... Sometimes combining the two, i.e. Please count to five and then say the first three letters in the alphabet)... If you ask me, this is a bunch of total b.s.! I digress, please consider my wave counts as you would the previous paragraph - If by some minuscule chance they are correct, the implications would imply the start of a massive rally... aka you would want to go long, and stay long... The counts did not contribute to, or affect, my sentiment and analysis! P.S. Please feel free to leave a comment or five, this is a community after-all! ... I am fine with constructive criticism, destructive criticism, compliments, personal insults and even childish name-calling....just PLEASE have some sort of opinion, and whatever you do, don't be a fence sitter, I hate fence sitters!!!!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Kantardziski
Gold/Stocks ratio: Risk off rally?It appears like we're about to see a pullback in equities, or at least a rally in gold and silver, and a pullback in the dollar here. It might have to do with the Italian referendum as well, but we'll know soon enough. Breaking this trendline would signal risk off sentiment, further validating the gold and silver long ideas I've posted. What I'm not sure of yet, is the extent of the rally to come, and wether it is part of a retracement in a long term trend that has turned down (this is possible), or simply the market is sideways and trendless (forming a giant consolidation or sideways pattern, or even a triangle). You can set alert to know when (if) this trendline breaks, set it to 'crossing up', 'once' using tradingview's handy alert system. Once CCI hits +100, we might get a set up to flip short gold, on weakness, so we have to remain vigilant as gold approaches the 1240-1250 zone. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
12
Gold/Silver ratio: Long term bearish declineThe Gold/Silver ratio shows an interesting setup here, and correlation to inverted SPX, which points to the nature of the ratio's movement tied to risk off/on phases. This has to do with the real world applications silver has as an industrial metal, compared to gold's function as a store of value and risk off protection. I think we can see a long term decline, implying the price of silver will either appreciate or depreciate less than the price of gold, in comparison to it at least. It's probably a good trade to take as a pair, which if you're using futures, implies you use a 2 to 3 ratio, selling 2 GC contracts and buying 3 SI contracts to enter the trade with reduced margin requirements. (I think there's a new contract for the ratio alone, but not familiar with it). You should size the trade based on risking 1% to 2% max if the price were to go against you coming back to 70.43. In the case of CFD or FX traders, you could open trades in the XAUUSD and XAGUSD instruments, or using this XAUXAG or XAGXAU contracts if they exist in your platform. If you own physical gold, exchanging it for silver makes sense at this point (if you didn't already). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:XAUXAGShort
by IvanLabrie
2