NZDUSD Weekly - Potential Kill Zones
Very Bearish outlook for KIWI Dollar but also presents a huge opportunity to capitalize on a very weak and bearish market
- Strong Ratio Confluence at the initial target zone.
- Trend Line Support/Resistance at area of confluence.
- Potential Advanced Cypher Pattern with a completion at the 78.6%
Ratio
AUDUSD: Gartley is Ready Hello traders!
As I mentioned in a few words about this big gartley yesterday on FX:AUDUSD in my idea, today it is going to be completed and get ready to go short. Our targets are located on very nice key levels and stops should go above the X leg 0.7077.
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Avto_T
Financial Analyst
www.rcpforex.com
GOLD SILVER RATIOSHigher Gold and Silver ratios usually mean lower precious metals prices. By the looks of this chart, it seems likely that Gold and Silver mights still have one or two legs lower before this Bearish Broadening Formation plays out with a higher high as it test the top of channel at around 88
On a better note, looks like Gold and Silver are due for a huge move to the upside as this Formation comes into play and these ratios find themselves going downtown! 88-92 area has to hold
Like and follow for trade updates and new trade ideas
AUDUSD: Gartley / Go ShortOn FX:AUDUSD , the bulls are in control of the price and getting close to the previous structure high. When bears are going to step in? it is more likely soon, as big orders are mostly placed at structure levels.
In addition, there is harmonic moves, where the valid gartley pattern appears, which increase the probability. This pattern gives a clear guidance, when to enter and put our take profit and stop loss. There is a nice risk reward in this set-up.
T1 - 38.2%
T2 - 61.8%
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DATA VIEW: I/S RATIO UPDATE - GROWTH CONTINUESInventories to Sales Ratio has been moderately ascending recently above its relevant risk-free levels of 1.3 along the relevant trend line.
It means that Inventories have been growing at a higher pace than Sales over the last several months
Savvy traders would be interested in watching this ratio as a potential risk indicator of the US economy.
If the ratio continues to ascend at the current phase, it will tell us that a significant fall in business sales is happening, and/or a large excess of inventories is being accumulated in the US economy – both factors are signs of a broader economic slowdown.
Longing EURJPY at fibonacci cluster confluenceEverything is on the chart guys. Fibonacci cluster consisting of 2 retracements (.382 and .50) plus the 100 extension from the previous price retracement. All of this lines up perfectly with previous support/resistance + that we're in a bullish trend.
Good luck everyone and hold your thumbs!
AUDJPY: Bearish Bat PatternGood morning traders.
Today on FX:AUDJPY we have a potential bearish bat pattern on daily chart, which should complete @91.32 level. Stops should go above the red zone and our targets will be fibs 38.2 and 61.8. Watch the structure level 89.4, it is really nice resistance which could be hold.
Avto_T
Green Luck
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EURNZD: The week of HarmonyWe have another harmonic moves on FX:EURNZD . This is ABCD pattern, which is almost completed and it is a good time to go long. We have a very nice structure at this level, look left and confirm. Our targets will be 1.7370-1.7570 levels. But watch 1.7292 level, it might be a hard shell to breakout.
Avto_T
Green Luck
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Follow-Up of Winning Long DuPont/Short SPY Pairs Trade As soon as DD turn up relative to SPY on the day highlighted it was the time to put on the trade. Even if you waited until it went over the 10-day average of the ratio, you would have gotten in with very good risk/reward. You would have had 1% drawdown on the first day's open, then as much as a 19% gain from there to today's high, or a 16% return to the last sale.
Had you just bought in on the day of publication, your maximum drawdown was 0.42% and your maximum upside was 19.79% for a worst/best ratio of over 40:1. Now that is a big trade.
You can see how easy it is to graph the ratio - just type in one symbol, then the "/" backslash and the next symbol, with no spaces. Ratios often tend to trend a bit better than outright positions, but there are no guarantees.
Wishing you many more returns.
Tim 2:59PM EST 10/6/2015
NZDUSD: Trade of the Week!This is the opportunity which I was watching the whole week. We have a very nice setup on FX:NZDUSD To start with there is a perfect ABCD pattern, completion right at the resistance level 0.6455. Besides we have a confluence of fibs 1.272, at this key level I look the price to hit the channel edge and finish the channel, as we see we have 2 touches below and 1 touch up with the potential second touch to complete the channel. R/R is also very nice.
Avto_T
Green Luck
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NZDUSD: Harmonic Trade On FX:NZDUSD we have a nice potential cypher pattern. Our stops go above the resistance level 0.6330, this level is pretty nice. And our targets will be fib 38.2 and 61.8. As we see price has broken structure level of B leg and now wait the pattern completion.
Avto_T
Green Luck
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GBPJPY: The Bat is Readywe have a very nice Bat pattern on FX:GBPJPY which is almost completed. Stops must go below the structure level 184.22, look left and check it. And our targets are 38.2 and 61.8 fib levels with the confluences of very nice key levels. Be aware that price has a high momentum, let it calm down and then go long. Besides we have a very nice confluence of weekly S1 right at the structure support level.
Avto_T
Green Luck
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EURAUD: Get Ready for Big MondaySunday Morning Traders!
What we have for Monday is a very nice long setup on FX:EURAUD
So we have a nice bearish channel and inside the channel nice ABCD pattern which is more likely to complete somewhere in the Red Zone with the confluences of: 1. Fibs extension 1.272; 2. structure support 1.5581; look left and check this level. 3. channel edge right at these levels. If the price enters this reversal zone we buy EUR. Out targets are somewhere at the channel resistance level @1.5870 wit the confluence of fibs 0.618 and support level @1.5818. Keep an eye on this setup.
Avto_T
Green Luck
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EURJPY: Pattern and StructureHere is another setup on FX:EURJPY We have a very , very nice shorting opportunity. There is a very good structure @137.04, look left for more confluence. Besides the structure we have a completed bearish bat pattern.
I suggest to go short at structure as the market has upward momentum, and according to my analyzes the structure must act like a wall.
Our stops go above the resistance and profit targets go around the green zone.
Avto_T
GL (Green Luck)
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EURJPY: Sell EUR, sell it!Harmonic pattern is ready to go short on FX:EURJPY
We have a bearish gartley with the confluence of fibs 61.8.
Our target 1 is around the next support and fibs 31.8 and the target 2 deeper support with fibs 61.8.
Besides look left and check the structure levels for more confluence.
GL (Green Luck)
Avto_T
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And of course the best service ever, we do offer you a so called “Big Deal” service, which you have never faced before. Reserve your sits my friends! Follow me and be the first to enter our world!
Potential Cypher Pattern completion at 1.13387Looking for potential Cypher Pattern completion at 1.13387. Putting stops 20 pips above X at 1.13827. Target 1 & 2 at .382 & .618 Fibonachi retracement. 2.59 risk/reward at T2. Rolling stops to break even if we hit T1. Don’t forget to add a little cushion for the spread. Plan your trade and trade your plan.
NZDCAD/Pair trade: Just short everything...I like to go short, I find the best trades I take are shorts, not sure why, but it's true.
Here we have 3 short opportunities, which are linked by correlations.
The NZDCAD ratio chart, or exotic pair if you want to call it that is offering us a nice trend continuation opportunity.
I will use this as a way to hedge my exposure to a more aggressive and more of a 'long shot' trade that I want to take in USDCAD, which is a short under the last daily low (and a second entry a bit lower). The trend was strongly up but rgmov has peaked before the last top, and the time at mode trend signal has expired in the daily.
It's possible this is an intermediate correction before a new leg up, that I have no way to know (I do have a projected top target a bit higher) but it's looking like a compelling short sell right here, right now.
As for NZDUSD, everyone and their mother wants to find the market bottom, but that's usually a hard and risky endeavor, so I will short in the face of range expansion resistance, and a clear downtrend with a nice push up thanks to the gold short squeeze rally, which gives us a nicer entry and clear stop location.
Here's the entry and sl parameters (if you trade the individual pairs, I will be trading with no stop loss on the *usd pairs, and with a stop and lower leverage in nzdcad):
NZDCAD: Entry under last daily low, stop above the last highest high. Target is a retest of the lowest low at least.
USDCAD: Entry under last daily low, stop above the highest high, no tp but watch levels on chart. Second entry at 1.29157, same SL. Splitting this in two equal risk % is a good idea.
NZDUSD: Entry under last daily low, stop above the highest high, no tp. Simple...
If you want to trade the no SL pair trade setup, find the ADR of each pair (which is /4) and then base position size on risking the desired percentage of your capital on the whole position. Adjust the smaller ADR pair position size by the result of dividing the larger ADR by the smaller one.
Here I get:
USDCAD: 99.5 pips per day
NZDUSD: 92.1 pips per day
So, 99.5/92.1=1.080347448425624.
Thus, we risk 1-5% on each side of the trade, but the smaller ADR one is multiplied by 1.080347448425624 to get the correct lot size.
That's how I trade these at least.
See related ideas for my longer term view on gold, and other important correlations. Special shout out to jangseohee, he brought the nzdcad chart to my attention again. His ideas are linked there too.
Good luck,
Ivan.