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GBPUSD: Trend & Counter Trend Opportunities I have a handful of trades on my radar today but I wanted to concentrate on the GBPUSD this morning because of the multiple opportunities. The main trade that I’m looking for is the Bearish trend continuation setup. This market has clearly broken structure to the downside and if we get relief we have an excellent structure level to predict where our next pullback will come to. We’ve also just come into a minor support level which may offer counter trend traders a buying opportunity. This will be something that I dig into during my live room on a smaller timeframe (waiting for confirmation ofcourse), but with the RSI buried, minor structure and a little Fibonacci ratio confluence, my eyes are certainly looking for a chance to buy the GBPUSD as the bears become exhausted. We had a good day in the Syndicate yesterday. I went 1 for 2 and I’m pretty sure Jason went 2 for 2 on his NZDUSD and GBPJPY shorts. Also on my radar today is the GBPAUD, EURJPY (already long), GBPJPY (already long), EURUAD and AUDCAD Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst www.TradeEmpowered.com Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM / Forex Weekend Review Videos: www.youtube.com
by Akil_Stokes
8
EURUSD 1HR: Two Structure Levels for ShortsI've explained this trade in detail during my latest Weekend Review video (link below), so i'll try to be brief. Like everyone else, I want to buy Dollars & Sell Euros based off of the fundamentals. With that being said it's important that we don't try and jump on the bandwagon because that's how a lot of rookie traders get burnt. Rather, we should stick to what got us here, the technicals and use our skill of technical analysis to predict where the next relief rally will end and find a low risk opportunity to get involved. (By low risk I mean, putting myself in the position where my potential profit is larger than my potential drawdown). As mentioned in the below video, I like the higher level of structure a lot more than the lower one, but both are worth keeping an eye on for the next leg down. It's crystal clear that the U.S. wants to raise interest rates. The best guess is September, but they have left it open by saying it depends on the economic data. I still believe that this market is prime to ignore any negative USD data (unless it's drastic) and waiting to rally on any "at expected" or positive USD news. These opinions won't affect my trading as far as looking for long or short opportunities, but they're good to know especially if the opportunity comes to shoot for extended targets. Have a great week traders and make sure you check out the other videos in my Weekend Review Playlist. "Maybe I Got Too Fired Up" www.youtube.com
Short
by Akil_Stokes
4
Gold/Silver Ratio | Channel Slope to Watch | Fib LevelsFellow Traders, This is not a trade idea - yet - but rather an informative piece of info on the Gold/Silver ratio that precious metal traders should take note of. I believe the channel slope posted here is validated and I see several points of contact that shows me the slope is still in play. As we know, precious metals have been falling since Apr 2011, which coincides with the low shown here on the Gold/Silver ratio. Why is this the case? Silver is more volatile than Gold. When precious metals prices rise, Silver tends to outperform Gold, hence from 2008 to 2011, we saw the Gold/Silver Ratio decreasing. When the prices of precious metals fall, Silver falls to a greater extent than Gold, hence we see the ratio of Gold/Silver increasing. What I see here corresponds to the recent consolidation of Gold and Silver without any clear direction of movement. What's interesting to me is also that we see the Gold/Silver ratio pausing at the completion of the AB=CD mark at around 74.27 and closer to the 75 price level. Let's see if this chart and slope can give us hints to a change of behaviour in the Gold and Silver prices in time to come. I will be looking for signs where the Gold/Silver ratio reverses and breaks downwards and out of the channel. If this happens, we will see a significant move in both Silver and Gold in my opinion. Until then, keep watch. Luke
FX:XAUUSD
by luke1827
How to properly scale your chartsMany charting tools require a proper scaling of price / time. This is the method I'm using to scale my charts if needed. 1) Draw a rectangle somewhere on your chart 2) Set it's coordinates to 1:1 So if the price coordinates are 300/350 , set the bar (time) coordinates to have the same difference of 50 in this case 3) Draw a "Fib Speed Resistance Arc". You can find it in the second tool bar menu where you also find the Fib Retracement 4) Set it's PRICE coordinates to the same you have set for the rectangle. For both BAR coordinates you use the smaller number from the rectangle bar coordinates. Now after you have done that drag one axis (price or time) and move it around. Watch the upper right corner of the rectangle cross with the fib arcs. If it crosses with the 1 fib arc, you have a 1:1 scaling. On the chart example you can see it cross the 3 fib arc so the scaling is 3:1 If you found a nice scaling, right-click the price axis and select "Lock Scale" so you can zoom in and out of the chart without changing the scaling. You can try the following scaling ratios: 0.5 / 1 / 1.272 / 1.414 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / ... also all the X.618 ratios could be usefull. (0.618 / 1.618 / 2.618 / 3.618 / ... ) Let me know how this works out for you and feel free to leave a comment if something is unclear. Cheerz : ]
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MagnusTradingGroup
12
SPHS Oversold, Filling the Gap, cash/share > share priceSophiris Bio had a Phase III drug trial test showing the drug was not effective and the market overreacted. The chart has a cash/share value (mrq) of $1.74, the float is 16.78 Million Shares (note today's volume alone is a large part of that), so with a tiny float, more cash per share on hand than the market price, and upcoming results for new Phase III results for other products, one can see why people are buying this up right now.
SLong
by trademan1
2
ENIP Good Reward to Risk Trade BullishTaking a recent swing low and swing high, the risk reward tool can measure potential profit to risk when stopped out and give the reward to risk ratio. Moving the mouse over the shaded area, here we see we can potentially make 375% while risking only 32.14% or in other words the ratio is 11.67, which is excellent. Any time one can use this tool to find a trade that has a ratio of 3 or more, that is great. It makes the odds so that effectively one could take every trade and have it be a coin toss winning half the time for 3x the bet and losing half the time for all the bet, and not care about it because the trades would breakeven with no loss all together. So even the slightest edge where it be due dilligence or trading system or indicator to make those trades even slightly better than a coin toss, then a profit is made. During backtesting trading techniques, if something is found that works 60-70% of the time that's great. Use it with trade setups that are reward to risk ratio over 3. That is a profitable way to make money trading. Whatever trading system is used it doesn't have to be super-perfect, complex, fancy, or better than anyone else, just "good enough" is fine.
ELong
by trademan1
USOIL: WAITING FOR THE SELLI don't typically watch oil too much but with all that's been in the news over the past few weeks how could I resist. Also being involved in the USDCAD trade that I shared with you guys last week caused me to keep one eye open as well. Anyway, despite the fundamentals (some of which are screaming short) the technicals are what matter to me most and in a heavy downtrend I'm not looking to hop on the bullish move late, rather I'd be looking for the next place to reload short orders and see if I can catch the next wave down. Syndicate members I'm going to record a brief video for you outlining this trade so check your emails in a little while. But I think I did a rather good job of trying to be as detailed as possible with all that I see. I actually think we could go lower at our current point so this one may be worth taking two shots on.
FX:USOILShort
by Akil_Stokes
10
XAU/USD: The Next Place To Trade GOLDFollowing up on my last video XAU/USD offers another opportunity to demonstrate the various ways to use Fibonacci tools. IF price action were to break our current structure level to the upside, THEN we're looking at a potential reversal zone that offers previous structure resistance, and a Fibonacci cluster. For a more detailed explanation of my analysis on this pair click the link below for the video I recorded. WATCH THE VIDEO HERE www.youtube.com
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Akil_Stokes
6
The Short and Long of the EURNZDThe EURNZD is currently in choppy waters but i think based on my analysis, for some hope. Currently on the Gartley pattern we are at a potential AB projection to form the C leg of the Gartley pattern if that happens(as we are @ the 26-18 trade setup), we could ride the C leg to form a Gartley completion @ the PRZ, 1.5623. If this happens we could look to get long. This however will take some time. The whole objective is you have 2 chances to get involved here Long OR short. Good Trading Guys
Short
by Siyabonga_Ngcobo
GBPJPY: What's Next After The Breakout? ....Back to the Analysis… now that we’ve put in a lower low, lower close and the RSI is buried, I think 1 of 2 things will occur. Either we’ll continue straight down to the Fibonacci cluster which comes in at structure, or we’ll see some relief that will result in a retest into previous structure support which should now act as resistance. Now I would shy away from a buy at the current level because absolutely no valid structure exist for protection (at minimum I would recommend waiting for a double bottom or 26-18 setups), but if we do indeed rally up to previous structure I would certainly look for a selling opportunity and a chance to ride it down to a retest of previous support and ultimately an extension to the Fibonacci cluster I mentioned earlier where I may get yet another buying chance. Above was an excerpt from my recent blog post titled "Predictions" ratiotradingmentor.com
by Akil_Stokes
2
Confidence Ratio Going DownA great indicator to determine the confidence (ie. risk appetite) of investors/speculators is the XLY/XLP ratio. XLY is the ETF for consumer discretionary stocks whereas XLP is the ETF for constumer staples stocks. In times of confidence, XLY should perform better than XLP because there is belief that the economy is doing well and that people will spend cash on things that are not absolutely necessary. The ratio has been tracking US equities indexes fairly well over the last years, but now we see major divergence. XLY/XLP is moving down and from a technical analysis standpoint it does not look like it is about to go rise back anytime soon. Yet, at the same time, the S&P 500 has been hitting all-time highs. This performance seems like it is not supported by risk appetite - which it should! So what should you do from here? Short this ratio? Short the S&P? That is all up to you. This is just another factor from a long list that supports the thesis that equities are overextended. Good luck trading.
AMEX:XLYShort
by Fouezz
EURUSD Daily - AB=CD & Ratio confluence & RSI DivergenceI had some time on my hands so I decided to take a look at the EURUSD daily chart and an opportunity for the longer term. We have a possible AB=CD pattern (with 0.318 retracement) setting up terminating on structure level around 1.26300. Drawing Fib extensions we also have a 1.618 and 2.618 confluence at the same level. If this level holds, I'll be looking for a rally into the 0.382 and 0.618 retracement levels which are both on structure level. Thanks for sharing your thoughts !
Long
by Nico.Muselle
EURAUD 4 HR: Pattern Entry for Trend ContinuationI'm looking at two things here on the EURAUD. Bigger picture is a potential bearish trend continuation trade as price action looks to make a retracement into a previous shelf of structure. Around that same level lays a potential bearish butterfly pattern completing at 1.618 & 1.272 Fibonacci confluence. Adding to that we have more ratio confluence in the form of a 78.6 & 50% Fibonacci retracements from previous structure highs. Just for a little added confidence this potential butterfly would complete a the 1.44000 which is a psychological round number. If you didn't see it already (shame on you, lol) I broke down this trade in my most recent Weekend Review video on YouTube. www.youtube.com Today's my off day, but I wish you guys a great week of trading! Akil
Short
by Akil_Stokes
2
NZDUSD Looking for a little Relief It hasn't been the best of weeks for me and I'm certainly fighting through a drawdown, but that's trading for you. The way I see it is you can either continue to follow your plan and fight through it, or given in and miss the opportunities that can potentially dig you out. This isn't the best opportunity at the moment, but it could be depending on how price reacts on my lower timeframe (1HR). What I'm looking at is a 1:1 measured move coming down into a previous structure level (look left) and a 1.618 fib extension. Keep in mind as a counter-trend trader I'm not looking for a big reversal, just a little relief that will allow me to make some profit. Now there's not much protection here on the daily, simply a zone. So what I will do is watch this closely on the hourly and look for a conservative reason to enter. A double bottom where the rsi is oversold and divergence is present would be a perfect example. This allows me to have my protective stops in a place that is safe, but doesn't mean me taking on a lot of risk. (Similar to what we did with the gbpusd this morning Syndicate Members). Not sure if or where the double bottom will complete but stops underneath the 85 even handle looks like a good spot. But again it all depends on what price action does. For you guys that follow me on youtube, I apologize about not posting my normal Thursday video. I'll probably have it up tonight or over the weekend. We'll see, it's been a busy week. Have a great weekend traders.
Long
by Akil_Stokes
1