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Platinum is ready for a pushWhile long term us yields have been rising heavily, we saw harsh drops on the precious metals including OANDA:XAUUSD , OANDA:XAGUSD and $OANDA:XPTUSD. Platinum has started show reversal movements. The price formed a double bottom and breaking the middle point. RSI also shows the bullish divergence. Additionally, the ratio between platinum and gold also formed a double bottom, and it breaks through the down trend as well. This is a good sign for all the precious metals. If we look at the previous ratio, platinum is ultra cheap compared to gold. If we are entering the super cyle era for precious metals, platinum is going to be the star of the show. Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
OANDA:XPTUSDLong
by WhaleGambit
PUT CALL BUY SIGNAL is been given The chart posted is the 5 ,10 and 20 day p/c model The green flag is up this should lead to the final rally of 2023 to peak on or about sept 10 th target is 4666 ideal but from 4631 to 4731 will be there I will exit ALL LONGS THIS IS THE LAST WAVE UP . I then see the break down which should be rather steep and prolonged in a very deep recession as the deflationary cycle is and will be clear based on my work in money velocity . The consumer will be contracting and spending habits will drop very fast due to the paying back of student debt and housing deflation in the rent markets .
P
by wavetimer
🟩 Smaller stocks are showing valueThe small caps are getting to levels when they show value based on earning yields nad based on relative strenghts. These are the levels we saw before when the Russell 1000 started outperform the Russell 2000. Hence this is showing a potential broadening of the rally and give confidence to traders to not stick to the Mega Caps (FAANGS). Rather, this is showing traders, that as long as stocks setup, you can stay synced with the theme. TVC:RUT and TVC:RUI
TVC:RUTLong
by TintinTrading
Historical ratio between Gold and SilverThe historical ratio between gold and silver , also known as the Au/Ag ratio, expresses how many ounces of silver are required to purchase one ounce of gold. This ratio is watched by investors and analysts as an indicator of the mutual value of these two precious metals. The historical ratio of gold to silver has moved in different ranges over time. Historically, the ratio has ranged from 15:1 (15 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold) to 100:1 (100 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold). The price of gold and silver varies and can change depending on various factors such as demand, supply, economic conditions and geopolitical events. These factors can also influence mining companies' decisions about which metal to mine and invest in. Factors affecting the ratio: 1. Gold is more precious than silver. The total amount of gold mined is much less than the amount of silver mined. This causes gold to be in supply and more rare, leading to a higher price. 2. Gold mining and processing is more difficult and expensive compared to silver. Mining requires special technologies and equipment, which increases the cost of obtaining it. 3. Gold is seen as a traditional reserve of value and protection against inflation. It has a long history as a store of value. Silver is also considered a valuable metal, but its value is more influenced by industrial use. It is important to remember that when deciding whether to invest in gold or silver, you should not only have favorable price ratios, but also other factors such as your investment objectives, risk profile, price status of both metals and current market conditions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by itshimon
Copper :Short Term DOWN/MID TERM LONGMID TERM LONG The price of copper has made some headway after falling to its lowest level since November 2020 on 15 July 2022. The metal started 2023 at $3.84 and has risen 6.7% to trade at around $4.10 as of the time of writing on 14 April, although base metal prices have retreated significantly since the record highs seen in March last year. Metals markets remain highly volatile in the face of macroeconomic pressures. The price of copper came under particular pressure last year due to fears of a global recession, weaker demand from Chinese manufacturing giants and China’s zero-Covid policy, a higher US dollar, and a mass sell-off on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Over the closing months of 2022, however, the metal began to recover as investors once again flocked to cyclical metals in response to a lower USD and rising prospects for a reopening in China. Copper retreats from record highs The price trend of copper was choppy at the start of the year, as pandemic-related lockdowns across several regions in China raised concerns about a slowdown in economic growth just as industrial production had ramped up following the Lunar New Year holiday. Manufacturing plants in Changchun suspended operations and construction work was halted in Shanghai, reducing consumption in the world’s largest copper market. At the end of February, traders weighed the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on commodities and stockpiled industrial metals. On rising demand and tightening supply, prices for copper – as well as aluminium, tin and zinc – reached record highs in March. The COMEX copper price chart shows that the metal climbed by 130% from the March 2020 low at the start of Covid-19 lockdowns to trade up to HKEX:5 a pound in early March 2022. In addition to the recovery in demand after the pandemic, there are several long-term demand trends that have been supportive to copper. The transition to clean energy requires larger quantities of copper, which is used for wiring in electric vehicles (EVs) and solar panels. Higher crude oil and gas prices are raising operational costs for copper producers, but also accelerating the energy transition and in turn increasing copper demand. The pandemic also saw a boom in demand for manufactured goods, including electronics and household appliances, as consumers turned to home entertainment and home improvement during lockdowns. What’s more, while demand has climbed, output from copper mines has not kept pace, tightening the supply balance. Aggressive interest rate rises by central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to tackle 40-year-high inflation have increased concerns among traders that the global economy could be facing a hard landing. At its 31 January – 1 February policy meeting, the Fed opted to moderate the pace of rate hikes, lifting its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 4.50%-4.75% range. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America recently said they expect the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three more times this year, lifting their estimates after data pointed to persistent inflation and a resilient labor market. "In light of the stronger growth and firmer inflation news, we are adding a 25bp (basis points) rate hike in June to our Fed forecast, for a peak funds rate of 5.25%-5.5%," Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a note dated Thursday. The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for China edged up to to 49.2 in January 2023 from a three-month low of 49.0 in December, coming in below market forecasts of 49.5. However, the reading marked the sixth straight month of declining factory activity, amid sluggish operations after an abrupt shift in COVID policy. Output fell the least in 5 months while a fall in new orders eased. Buying levels dropped at the slowest pace in 3 months; while foreign demand remained weak, falling for the sixth month. “The pandemic continued to take a toll on the economy in January,” said Dr Wang Zhe, an economist at Caixin Insight Group. “Supply and demand weakened, overseas demand was sluggish, employment declined, and logistics hadn’t fully recovered, while the quantity of purchases shrank, inventories dropped, and manufacturers faced growing pressure on profitability. But optimism in the sector continued to improve as businesses expected a post-Covid economic recovery.” Zhe added: "Since Covid controls were optimized at the end of 2022, China has seen a surge in Covid infections. According to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the numbers of fever clinic visits nationwide and people hospitalized with Covid peaked in late December and early January, respectively, and have declined since then." "After being hit by the latest wave of Covid infections, the primary focus of economic work should be on accelerating economic recovery and promoting normalized production and social orders. Improving expectations, restoring confidence, increasing income, expanding consumption, and stimulating domestic demand will be among the priorities. There is still uncertainty in how the pandemic will develop, so full preparation should be made to deal with the next wave of the virus. China will still need to effectively coordinate pandemic containment with economic and social development." In the most recent Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI press release, the report highlighted the impact of Covid restrictions on the manufacturing sector, stressing that market optimism was at it highest in close to two years: "The return to more normal business operations, and hopes that the economy and new business will rebound, helped to lift business confidence at the start of the year. Notably, the degree of optimism was the highest recorded since April 2021." In the latest copper news, LME on-warrant copper stocks have fallen the most since 8 December, according to data from the exchange cited by ING Group's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey. On-warrant stockpiles fell by 7.5% to 51,800 tonnes, with declines coming from warehouses in Germany and the Netherlands. First Quantum will suspend copper ore processing at its Panama mine on 23 February, according to a report from Reuters, due to limited storage capacity at the site. The Maritime Authority of Panama banned loading copper at Cobre Panama’s port over a certification issue in December last year. The mine accounts for 1.5% of global copper production. Investors are continuing to monitor the extent of improved Chinese purchasing after the country’s economic reopening, as new home sales grew for a third straight week in 16 major cities. Industrial demand is also expected to pick up as the government is set to announce further stimulus measures at its National People’s Congress in March. On the supply side, a series of production and export disruptions by major producers in South and Central America compounded concerns about low inventories in the US and Europe, adding to worries that copper markets could be heading into a severe deficit. The metal was trading at around $4.15 per pound as of 21 February 2023, down from its record high of $4.27 on 26 January and tracking the increase in other base metals amid persistent supply concerns and strong demand expectations. It is also worth noting the market remains well above the March 2020 low of $2.17. The copper price history shows the market has been trending higher since 2018, turning around an extended decline that started in 2010. What is the long-term copper outlook? Do analysts expect prices to rise or fall? We look at some of the latest copper price forecasts and analysis below. Copper price forecast: Should you buy, hold or sell? On 21 February 2022, analysis of copper on the Comex exchange in the US by brokerage Zaner was hesitant to show a bullish forecast for the short-term price trend of copper: “Despite a risk off vibe in financial and many physical commodities markets this morning, the copper market has extended last week's sharp recovery move and nearly tested the February high. While the COT report has been suspended due to hacking, the last spec positioning report showed a relatively low net long with the market currently sitting $0.05 below the level where that positioning was last measured. Apparently, the copper trade is unconcerned about the buildup of Chinese domestic physical supply and has also seen signs that China continues to utilize scrap copper to produce cathode rods. In fact, Bloomberg overnight indicated that domestic copper stocks inside China added 4500 metric tons over the weekend. However, the current copper trade is willing to discount the 2023 trend of higher Shanghai copper stocks and even higher regional copper inventories in China." "Initially March copper has found resistance at $4.20, but the market from last week's lows has gained $0.22 and has managed those gains in the face of distinct supply building inside China. If it were not for the risk off sentiment and looming rate hike threats from the US, we would be more upbeat toward near-term copper price action. Nonetheless, the strength of the market looks to lift prices above $4.20 and consolidate with resistance seen at $4.30." Capital.com analyst Piero Cingari highlighted the metal’s price dependence on the situation in China in his copper price outlook for 2023: “Copper’s chances of hitting the $4.00 zone and shattering it increase the sooner China announces an economic openness. $4.62 might be an intriguing bullish target for the first half of 2023, as it would represent a 78.6% retracement of the range of 2022. “If the scenario doesn’t play out as expected and copper retraces to the downside, the $3.50–$3.58 support area, if reached, may likely reinstate bull buying action on dips. Copper traded at these levels when Chinese authorities first announced efforts to ease Covid restrictions in November." “A fall to $3.50 or below would signal a complete reversal of Chinese authorities’ attempts to unlock the economy and a broader dollar surge on the basis of fresh hawkish fears from the Fed, and thus a retest of such levels seems to have fewer probabilities at this time.” In a comment to Mining.com, independent consultant Robin Bhar said: “There’s high-level data showing that things are beginning to stir in China, but when it comes to infrastructure and construction, it will take a bit more time. There’s good dip buying around to support the underside. People are taking the opportunity to build longs, whether tactically as we go into Q2 or strategically because of the green energy transition.” Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen recently told CNBC that industrial metals such as copper, aluminum and lithium would undoubtedly benefit from the “enormous political capital” being invested in achieving the “green transformation.” “The new geopolitical environment will mean a massive boost for the European defence industry which should see double-digit growth rates close to 20 percent per year over the next economic cycle as the European continent doubles its military spending in percentage of GDP." Hansen added that the metal's strong start to the year – copper futures have gained close to 10% year-to-date – are due to “technical and speculative traders frontrunning an expected pickup in demand from China in the coming months”. “Once the initial rally is over, the hard work begins to support those gains, with an underlying rise in physical demand needed to sustain the rally, not least considering the prospect of increased supply in 2023 as several projects go live. “Overall we see copper settle into a $3.75 to $4.75 range during the coming months before eventually breaking higher to reach a new record sometime during the second half.” Analysis by Trading Economics also leaned towards the bearish side on the future price, expecting copper to trade at $3.96 a pound by the end of the current quarter and $3.70 in 12 months’ time. Algorithm-based forecasting site Wallet Investor was more positive regarding the longer-term market outlook, predicting the price could rise over the coming years. The website’s copper price forecast for 2023 estimated that the price could reach $4.162 by the end of the year, while its copper price forecast for 2025 suggested a copper price target of $4.985. On 14 March 2023, analysts at Fitch Solutions revised up their forecasts, suggesting copper could average HKEX:8 ,800 a tonne in 2023 and HKEX:8 ,000 in 2024. “Our increased copper assumptions for 2023-2025 reflect our expectation of a tight balance in the market. China’s re-opening will support growing short-term demand as China accounts for 55% of global refined copper consumption. Medium- and long-term demand for copper is supported by the energy transition. Still, mine underperformance in Chile, political protests in Peru and recent issues in the smelting sector may constrain copper supply.” they said. Analysts at Canada’s TD Securities see the potential for further downside, writing in a copper price analysis: “Timing a market squeeze is an art, particularly amid poor liquidity conditions. Under the crushing weight of a collapse in commodity demand, copper prices have slashed through every support level.” In its October 2022 commodities forecast, the World Bank expected prices to decline over the next few years, from £8,700 a tonne in 2022 to HKEX:7 ,300 in 2023 and HKEX:7 ,361 in 2024. Citi previously predicted in its copper price forecast for 2030 that the metal could trade at HKEX:10 ,756 a tonne by the end of the decade, with a bull case of HKEX:14 ,341 and a bear case of HKEX:8 ,963. When considering any market predictions, it’s important to keep in mind that commodity prices are highly volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict where prices will be at any given time in the future. You should always do your own research. Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future returns, and never invest any money that you cannot afford to lose.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by DaveBrascoFX
BTC to Gold ratio is a consistent indicatorI did this chart in November 2021 and expected a black swan event but the market ended doing a slow painful decent in a downward channel . However, the ratio touched support at 9.64 as predicted and I expected the market to flip bullish afterward. But Sam Banksman Fried's shorting the market with FTX customer deposits to save his Ponzi dropped the market below support. As a rule of thumb in crypto, all inorganic moves revert to their starting point. Such examples are the 2019's XI pump which reverted in a months’ time and the Trump pump which resulted in the covid black swan event. So the FTX dump and manipulation spectacularly reverted with a Bart up and all bears waiting for 12k were decimated. The Bart up formed a fake out below key level with retest which is a very bullish pattern . Currently the ratio broke out of its more than a yearlong descending channel with a retest followed by a strong bounce, breaking over the order block and range resistance at 13.87. The retest was confluent with the retest of the fake out below key level doubling the probability of an upward trend. The descending channel measured move is at 20.53 which confluent with the descending channel midline and triple the 10 to 14 range. All these confluences indicate a high probability target. I was in the past been able to predict the major bull run of 2020 with the BTC to gold ratio. and that the 9.6k gap was internally closed by the CME and that price will no longer fall to close the gap. The 20.53 ratio target will correspond to 51K if gold reaches 2500. The measured move the BTC falling wedge is at 48k which means that gold can reach 2.33k . BTC to gold ratio is a good indicator because it highlights patterns that are not clear on the normal BTC price chart. Coupled with other analysis the BTC to gold ratio should give high probability predictions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by nagihatoum
2
SPY divided by AAPL ratio chartAs you can see on this ratio chart, we had a breakout and backtest with weekly bull divergence, which likely means AAPL will gain less value - or lose more value to SPY in the coming weeks. Since I expect the market to fall from this area, I also expect AAPL to outperform to the downside for a while. Earnings could pump it first - and if so, I think AAPL would be an ideal short near 150 if it could get there. The monthly charts are also showing bull divergence on the RSI. First target would be about 3.40 area resistance.
AMEX:SPYLong
by the_sunship
2
Narrow Focus Delivers Greater ImpactFamous American Author Alfred Paul Ries once said, “Good things happen when you narrow your focus”. Global macro conditions and monetary environment could make that quote apt for US equity market investing too. Given the backdrop of price behavior, this case study argues that a spread trade comprising of Long Dow Jones Index and short S&P 500 index provides a potential reward to risk of 1.01. The charts above clearly point to the strong performance in Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA Index, a narrow market index comprising of 30 stocks) relative to the broader S&P 500 index (an index of 500 stocks). SECTOR WEIGHTINGS Based on sector weights as published by S&P Global on 31/Oct, the table below sets out the comparative analysis of the two indices. Information Technology - DJIA: 19.5%, SPX: 26.3%, Difference: -6.8%, DJIA Significantly Underweight Information Technology Health Care - DJIA: 22.2%, SPX: 15.3%, Difference: +6.9%, DJIA Significantly overweight Healthcare Financials - DJIA: 16.2%, SPX: 11.4%, Difference: +4.8%, DJIA Overweight Financials Consumer Discretionary - DJIA: 13.3%, SPX: 10.9%, Difference: +2.4%, DJIA Overweight Consumer Discretionary Industrials - DJIA: 13.9%, SPX: 8.3%, Difference: +5.6%, DJIA Significantly Overweight Industrials Communication Services - DJIA: 2.9%, SPX: 7.5%, Difference: -4.6%, DJIA Underweight Communication Services Consumer Staples - DJIA: 7.5%, SPX: 6.9%, Difference: +0.6%, DJIA Overweight Consumer Staples Energy - DJIA: 3.6%, SPX: 5.4%, Difference: -1.8%, DJIA Underweight Energy Utilities - DJIA: 0%, SPX: 3%, Difference: -3%, DJIA Underweight Utilities Real Estate - DJIA: 0%, SPX: 2.6%, Difference: -2.6%, DJIA Underweight Real Estate Materials - DJIA: 0.9%, SPX: 2.5%, Difference: -1.6%, DJIA Underweight Materials The DJIA has heavier weightage to Health Care, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Consumer Staples with underweight on Technology, Telecommunications, Utilities and Real Estate sectors. We live in times of unprecedented pace of monetary conditions tightening with high interest-rate expected right through 2023 until policy pivots creating fears of looming recession and continuing geo-political conflicts. Against such a backdrop, historically Financials and defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Health Care have outperformed rate-sensitive and growth sectors such as Technology, Real Estate and Telecommunications. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The CME Micro E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures ( MYMZ2022 ) completed a golden crossover (10d & 200d MA) on 9/Nov. A golden crossover is generally seen as a bullish signal of an uptrend. Furthermore, the MYMZ2022 closed above the R1 for the pivot indicator on 25/Nov. If this level holds, this price point could act as a support level. RSI for MYMZ2022 exhibits an overbought market condition with RSI at 71.25 as of closing 25/Nov. The stochastic indicator also points to the market having overbought with a reading of 97.74. Notably, the stochastic indicator displayed an intersection on 8/Nov which points to a potential reversal in the uptrend. Meanwhile, the MESZ2022 is currently trading below the long-term (200-day) moving average and has not had a golden crossover yet. MESZ2022 also failed to breach R1 of the standard pivot twice and closed below it on 25/Nov. The pivot R1 and the long-term moving average both point to strong resistance at this level. RSI was 61.86 as of 25/Nov. The stochastic indicator shows that MESZ2022 is overbought with a reading of 94.16. Notably, the stochastic indicator displayed an intersection with the 3-day SMA signaling a potential reversal in the uptrend. According to Goldman Sach’s 2023 Equities Outlook, they expect equities to cool off from their current rally in 2023. This is supported by historical performance during similar economic conditions. Moreover, both DJIA and S&P500’s technical signals also point to them being overbought. This could mean a correction is due for both of them. However, the DJI stands on a much stronger footing, technically, as it finds support at the long-term MA that it intersected this month. As such, the Dow is expected to be more resilient than the S&P 500 during the impending correction. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS’ REPORT According to CME’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report, S&P 500 traders have established net long positions. Dealers had long OI of 17.4% compared to short OI of 16.1%. Asset Managers and institutional investors had a long OI of 40.3% compared to 22.1% short. By contrast, Dow futures had dealer/intermediary long OI of 35.3% compared to 16.3% short. While institutions were 22.3% long compared to 8.9% short. Notably, leveraged positions for S&P 500 had 26.6% short OI against 6.5% long while DJI had a roughly balanced 22.3% for long and 21.4% for short. Charting DJIA/SPX shows that the ratio rallied in October and broke through all the resistances for the pivot indicator. November saw the ratio cool off. Both RSI and Stochastic indicator cooled off during this and currently stands neutral. The stochastic indicator recently displayed a crossover which could indicate a reversal in the downtrend. If the ascending channel highlighted below maintains, then a DJIA and SPX spread trade would be viable over the next few months. Take profit could be set as R1 and R2 of the pivot indicator. Stop loss could be set at the Pivot point. In the chart these levels have been adjusted by accounting for the 20-day historical volatility. IF HISTORY IS ANY GUIDE Analysing the ratio over the long-time frame we can see that the rally over the past month is not unexpected. The DJI/SPX ratio rallied during past instances of Quantitative Tightening as well. For instance, during 2018-19, with tightening monetary conditions, the ratio rallied to 9.363 compared to a low of 8.233 in 2016. The ratio also spiked after the tightening in 2006-08 from a low of 8.447 to a high of 10.075. Also in 2000-01, from a low of 6.984 to 9.691. Considering that the Fed has hiked rates in an aggressive manner this time around, the rapid rise in this ratio is also not unexpected. From past data, we can see that the ratio does not peak until the peak of the hiking cycle or a few months after that. From Fed statements we can see that although the pace of hikes is expected to slow, a pivot is not expected anytime soon. TRADE SET UP To establish market neutral spread trade at inception, a ratio of 7:6 lots (DJI:SPX) is required with a long position on 7 lots of DJI and a short position on 6 lots of SPX. The ratio of 7:6 ensures that the exposure to DJI and SPX is neutral with equivalent notional on each position. As such, 7 lots of Micro E-mini Dow Jones Average Futures March Expiry ( MYMH3 ) will be required which have a required margin of $750 each for a total of $5,250. Each contract of MYMH3 provides exposure to $0.5 x Dow Jones Index. Six (6) lots of Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures March Expiry ( MESH3 ) will be required which have a required margin of $750 each for a total of $6,360. Each contract of MESH3 provides exposure to $5 x S&P 500 Index. After factoring in margin credits, the anticipated total margin required for this trade is $12,000. The total notional for the trade would $120,000 SPX spread against $119,689 on DJI based on prices as of closing on 25/Nov. This case study suggests entering the spread trade at the current DJI/SPX ratio of 8.522 with a target ratio of 8.671. This would yield profit of $2,140. Where the trade is held to second target of 8.806 it would yield a profit of $4,054. In case the trade goes sour and the ratio contracts, we would exit the trade at the level of 8.236 which would result in a loss of $4,026. This leads to a reward to risk ratio of 0.53 for the first target and 1.01 for the second target. SPREAD TRADE MARGIN CME offers margin credits for spread trades. Clearing brokers might charge differently from the Exchange imposed margins. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by mintdotfinance
NASDAQ 100 Futures for the week 1/23 to 1/27If the market wants to keep a healthy bullish trend, the excess oversold disruption in box 1 should be reflected with price action in box 2, outside of the yellow box. And if the level of prior high at 11727 holds as support upon retesting, we can set our target price at 12068. But if the prior high cannot hold, the market is likely to range. By then, it's safer to wait for the price to break the ranging zone. Otherwise there are too many uncertainties when the market has no specific direction. **Not Financial Advice** The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by stock_adelie
equity to gdp at extremesquarterly momo is bearish in spy, and equity to gdp ratio is at or near a vertex, or local minimum. if you look at the volume based oscillations there is mixed indication. if you anchor vwap at the breakout level jan 2014 you can see were sitting right on the top band exploring the idea of a monthly higher low. if that breaks things like equity/gdp, market cap/gdp, the buffet indicator (aggregate value or price to share to gdp) will need to converge more bearishly on the price. if we confirm weekly trend reversal then ill be much more confident in an spx broader recovery and maybe all time highs, but if we head toward 52 week lows i expect equity over gdp to test 1999 highs, and spy to test corona highs. its not unthinkable that spy is at 500 soon, but its also not impossible that we see 300 first. this shows that valuations are completely detatched from fundamentals, and thats not necessarily bullish or bearish but instead shows why things have been unravelling for a little more than a year. im sure a lot of that is coronavirus, and im sure a lot of it is just prices trending toward equillibrium.
AMEX:SPY
by cerealpatterns
Short-term plan for Nasdaq 100 FuturesPreparing 2 scenarios: one for long and the other for short. Currently, the market is ranging mainly between 11180 and 10870. If the price up breaks 11180 , we can expect our TP price to be at 11605. On the way to our target price, we need to be aware of the level at 11490 and the downtrend line at the larger timescale that the levels could be potential resistances. If the price down breaks 10870 , we can expect our TP price to be at 10556. On the way to our target price, we need to be aware of the previous low at 10758 that could be a potential support. **Not Financial Advice** The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by stock_adelie
5
APPL's TP price for the bears1. Price is trending within the down channel perfectly. 2. Purple color: The price broke below the horizontal support of the ranging zone (0 to 1). And using the 1:1 ratio strategy, TP price is expected at the next 100% level (level 2). 3. On the way to level 2, we may want to pay attention to level 1.5, where the level could be a horizontal support. 4. Orange color - another strategy to use in this scenario: Down "N" strategy: Key move --> rebounce --> (following an N pattern) After breaking the purple ranging zone 0 to 1 (the rebounce), the market would be highly likely to repeat the key movement (the orange force). Therefore, the bottom of the orange box could also be a strong support. **Not Financial Advice** The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by stock_adelie
NASDAQ 100 Futures for the week 12/27 to 12/30If the price breaks the uptrend channel, the price action will generally follow the downtrend and keep going down. And let’s use the 1:1 ratio strategy to find more details. 1. The price dropped from 0 to 1 and 2 in a perfect 1:1 ratio. 2. Level 2 could not stop the bears, and the price keeps dropping. By the strategy's rules, if level 2 cannot hold, the price will be down another 100%, which is from 0 and 2 to 2 and 4. Since the price never crosses above level 2, the market is still considered weak. Therefore, If the price is moving within level 2 and 3 and never breaks the uptrend channel, the market is more likely to do triangle ranging. If the price drops below level 3, where the price will be below the uptrend channel, it may drop further to level 4 to fulfill a completed 1:1 move. **Not Financial Advice** The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by stock_adelie
Matic vs ETH is breaking outMatic BINANCE:MATICUSDT vs ETH BINANCE:ETHUSD is breaking out of the symmetrical triangle For those of you who do not close spot trades into USD but into large Caps crypto assets, looking at ratios between different crypto assets are invaluable. If your favourite altcoin is not outperforming BTC, ETH, ADA or Sol then why hold that altcoin? Based on this breakout, one should convert some ETH to Matic as we can expect Matic to significantly outperform ETH during this bear market rally. Once the technicals shows signs of a reversal, convert your MATIC back to ETH. One should expect a 40% rally to the 1.618 fib extension target
MLong
by TraderMagz
Another low in play for Nasdaq?Third quarter results for big tech came out last week and it wasn’t pretty. Is this a harbinger of another low? Look at the price action, the Nasdaq 100 is now sitting just below the .5 Fibonacci Level which has marked a local resistance level. Curiously the price structure looks very familiar when compared with the April to June period. In that episode, prices tried to break upwards (1) but lost momentum. This resulted in a large drop to the next lower Fibonacci level (2), followed by a rally back to the 0.382, Fibonacci level above (3), where resistance was met again, and prices fell (4). Is what we are looking at now a reprise? On the macro side of things, a couple of factors keep us bearish. Firstly, the behemoth federal reserve balance sheet is only in the first innings of its reduction program. This worries us as the effect of this reduction is the removal of liquidity in the financial markets which could lead to higher volatility. We will keep our eyes & ears peeled for this week’s FOMC, to identify any potential changes to the quantitative tightening schedule. Secondly, we point back to our previous research and note that the Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio is still at incredible highs, with further room to fall when compared back to the dot-com bubble in 2000. If we layer the 10-year yield (inverted) onto this Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio, one could argue that the tech outperformance could be driven by the decade-long fall in interest rates. With interest rates sharply higher now, and a few more hikes on the cards, we wonder if Nasdaq can truly hold up against the S&P500. With murmurs of a Fed Pivot driving the Nasdaq higher over the past few days, we think this presents a good opportunity for a short position. As laid out by the price structure we observed and the overhanging bearish macro picture we think another low is in play for the Nasdaq 100 index. With FOMC this week and a packed economic calendar, one way to manage risk is to trade the Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures, which is a smaller and more manageable contract, allowing you the option to average into your position. Entry at 11,540, stop at 12,150. Target at 10,300. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
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CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by inspirante
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