Still not buying the cyclical rotation to financials theme Still under the 2009 relative low, so no I'm not buying the whole rotation to financials theme just yet.
Ratio
Allstate should make a bullish trend line breakAllstate is one of my top picks in terms of both value and sentiment. In terms of technicals, it's a classic potential trend line breakout play.
Value
After a significant selloff this year, Allstate is still trading near the bottom of its 3-year valuation range in P/E, P/S, and P/D terms. The company is financially healthy, with a 78/100 score for financial health from S&P Global. It pays a solid, but sustainable dividend; I estimate 2.37% dividend return in the next 12 months, assuming the dividend gets bumped up to 58 cents in the first quarter of next year. In the last 12 months, the dividend was only 16% of GAAP EPS, which is a very comfortable level. The PEG ratio of 2.77 is pretty good, and the PSG ratio of 0.25 is extremely good. (Admittedly, analyst coverage is a little thin, so we're not working with very many different estimates of future earnings and sales.) In fact, the only value metrics by which Allstate looks a little lackluster are its ESG score and earnings surprise history, both a little below the market average.
Sentiment
Sentiment on Allstate has been improving over the last month, with a large increase in the Equity Starmine Summary Score to its current rating of 9.7/10. Allstate got a hefty settlement from PG&E last month, so the news environment looks good. The put/call ratio on Allstate is bullish, but not strongly bullish, at 0.69. (A put/call ratio under 1 is bullish; a put/call ratio over 1 is bearish.)
Technicals
Technicals are somewhat negative for now, but given the improvement in analyst ratings, I expect that Allstate will soon make a bullish trend line cross. For a swing trade, I am setting my profit target in the 105-106 range. I will go ahead and buy ahead of the trend line cross, but another way to play this would be to wait for a confirmed cross to place a buy.
BTC/XAU Gold dragging BTC downbut the ratio broke over key resistance and retested it and is on the way up, implying that BTC will outperform gold. We can see decoloration between BTC and gold as the ratio pushes up while BTC goes down, which is interpreted as BTC going down less than gold and when gold stabilize, BTC will take of. RSI in a rising channel suggest BTC will outperform gold more in the near future.
Will you bite the apple?Do you think they will be able to increase their sales towards 20-21? I don't...
Biogen trend line to watchBiogen today reported a huge earning beat, but disappointing guidance for the rest of the year. When you crunch the numbers, the midpoint of Biogen's guidance range for 2H 2020 came in slightly below Street consensus for both earnings and revenues.
Biogen has a reasonable, but not great valuation, with forward PEG of 3.78 and forward PSG of 1.27. It's currently in the lower half (26th percentile) of its three-year valuation range in terms of forward P/S and forward P/E. Biogen pays no dividend, and as a result the stock is more volatile than a dividend-paying stock would be.
Sentiment on Biogen improved quite a bit today. There have been no analyst upgrades yet, but options traders moved from net-bearish to net-bullish positioning for the short term, and from net-bearish to net-neutral positioning for the long term.
We're coming up on the strong season for pharmaceutical stocks in August. Biogen has only one phase 2 clinical trial result due in the second half of 2020 for its multiple sclerosis drug, but there are five results due in the first half of 2021, including a phase 3. These could prove to be major catalysts for the stock over the next year.
For the near term, watch for a possible trend line break as a sign that the stock will move higher.
ABBV buy the dip ahead of pharma seasonAbbvie's volume has slackened somewhat after its recent triangle breakout, and it has broken its steep upward trendline. We may see a small correction late this month as Abbvie pulls back toward triangle top. However, if healthcare and pharmaceutical sector earnings continue to deliver this month (as they have so far), then Abbvie should get some buying volume along with the rest of the sector.
And then in August, a period of seasonal pharmaceutical strength begins. In The Stock Traders' Almanac, Jeffrey Hirsch makes an extensive study of seasonal stock market performance by sectors. His third-best-performing seasonal trade by average 10-year return (16.8%) is to go long biotech from early August to early March. I believe that's because this is the busy season for FDA drug application reviews.
The pharma sector does have an unusual level of political risk this year. Democrats have traditionally been hard on the pharma sector, and they look poised this year for a sweep. If the polls remain strongly blue, then we might see pharma underperform this year.
That said, I think a lot of the political risk is already priced in. Whereas most of the stocks I look at are at the very top of their 3-year valuation range in terms of forward earnings and sales, pharmaceutical companies like Abbvie and Merck are trading in the bottom quartile of their 3-year valuation range. With forward PEG ratio around 2, forward PSG ratio around 0.5, and a whopping 5% dividend, Abbvie looks really attractively valued. I've been doing a lot of deal-hunting lately, and this is one of the only stocks I've seen with both a strong growth story and a valuation I really like. The analysts and options traders like it too; Abbvie has a 9.9/10 Equity Starmine Summary Score, and near-dated options positions are heavily skewed toward calls.
A trading plan on MicrosoftOn its earnings report today, Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings and guidance, but issued first-quarter revenue guidance slightly below the Wall Street consensus. The poor revenue guidance was partly, but not completely, offset by slightly better-than expected guidance for first-quarter operating costs. Overall, the magnitude of the earnings beat was much greater than the magnitude of the guidance cut, and my valuation metrics on Microsoft improved today: PEG dropped from 9+ to about 8.76.
Microsoft is still certainly overvalued, however, along with the rest of the FAANG+ stocks. It's about 30-40% above the top end of its traditional range in terms of forward P/E and P/S. For a long-term buy-and-hold play, I would want to see Microsoft drop all the way to my second volume support before I'd want to buy.
In the short term, Microsoft sentiment still looks pretty good. Options traders are net bullish in their positioning, and the Starmine Equity Summary Score for MSFT is 9.9. ESG has mattered a lot lately, and Microsoft earns one of the best ESG ratings I've seen. Thus I think we'll probably see a bounce from 203 either tomorrow or, more likely, Monday or Tuesday next week. A swing trade over the weekend might be a winner as the market holds out hope for vaccine and stimulus news.
In macroeconomic terms, we saw the "recovery" story start to change today. Initial jobless claims turned upward for the first time in 16 weeks. Lots of other indicators I watch are also starting to look a little more negative. Thus, we may be headed into a period of renewed market weakness until the South and Midwest successfully flatten their coronavirus curves and resume reopening their economies. I highly doubt we'll drop all the way to that lower volume support at $135 unless the Moderna, Pfizer, and Astrazeneca vaccines all fail in clinical trials, but a dip to the upper support around $183.50 in August or September after stimulus news fades may not be out of the question, and from there it'd be worth swinging for a bounce. I will target a small entry at $183.50 and a 3x larger entry for $135, contingent on macroeconomic news.
Taiwan Semiconductor guidance crushed Street estimatesI saw a couple articles this morning suggesting that maybe TSM sold off today because forward guidance disappointed Street expectations. That's nonsense. Revenue guidance came in about 7% above expectations, and earnings guidance came in about 15% above Street expectations. This company's guidance crushed it . The stock sold off for one reason only: it is overbought.
TSM does look a bit pricey, even with the strong guidance for Q3. Even after factoring in the strong forward guidance, I am calculating forward P/E at about 21 and forward P/S at a little below 8. That's about 20% more expensive in forward P/E terms and 34% more expensive in forward P/S terms than the stock's average valuation over the last three years. In this challenging macroeconomic environment, that seems like an unreasonable valuation. It's a reflection of how inflated tech valuations have gotten due to Fed liquidity and investors piling into tech as a safe haven.
Having said that, TSM has an extraordinarily strong growth narrative right now, as the company is set to take over chip production for Apple. Formerly Apple's chips were manufactured by Intel. TSM also makes chips for Qualcomm, among other large companies. Thus, I think TSM will continue to outperform the Nasdaq and is a buy on any significant pullback. Ideally, I'd like to see this stock pull back to the volume node near $53.50 before buying, but in truth I don't see that happening any time soon.
Shiller Ratio Updated for June 11The U.S. equity market now appears "cheap" to many--the ones who have named this so called "V" shaped recovery in the U.S. equity markets, however it's important to keep context in mind when looking back at a decade of earnings growth compared to 1919.
Into December of 1919, the CAPE was at an all-time low. With so much focus on 1919 going into the COVID-19 pandemic among market commentary, the comparison that this chart allows to make is 1919 to 2019, with a suggestion of downtrend.
If the SPX indeed returns to multiples in 1919, that would put a market valuation of the SPX at around $500 according to the CAPE ratio.
An interesting ratio I have been paying attention to for 2 yearsJust an interesting ratio to watch, I saved a lot by moving from LTC to XMR by watching this. Possibly time to very slowly start moving back to LTC. Keep in mind XMR has a much lower circulating supply, so this ratio could get much lower.
BTC to Gold Ratio (BTC/XAU) clear rejectionI waited 2 weeks to confirm that the ratio has clearly reject of 5.66. This means a drop in both bitcoin and gold.
Gold to Silver Ratio FallingThis ratio shows the amount of silver it takes to equal one ounce of gold in price. When the ratio is rising it means that gold is outperforming silver; when the ratio is falling it means that silver is outperforming gold.
The gold to silver ratio is currently at 106 and falling after hitting an all-time high of 126:1. The average ratio in modern times is about 50:1, with the long-term historical average dating back 5,000 years being closer to 15:1. In recent times, 80:1 was about the peak we would see in the ratio before it would fall again, so the recent jump to 126 was more than likely a once-in-a-lifetime event as silver became severely undervalued compared to gold.
The chart currently shows three yellow price candles which indicates that extreme bullish volatility was experienced in the move up as gold outperformed silver. This was most likely due to investors fleeing to gold due to its main function being a store of value, while silver failed to see the same gains due to it mostly being an industrial metal, and since global production has dropped off during the virus outbreak silver was not in high demand. That trend appears to now be shifting in silver's favor due to the extreme disconnect in the ratio.
The three yellow price candles show a strong move up on the first yellow candle, followed by a second yellow candle with a small body and long lower wick, and now the current price candle is retreating. This three-candle pattern resembles a hanging man reversal candle pattern with the second yellow candle being the hanging man candle. This occurs when the price of an asset sees high demand, and then a sudden pause as traders become indecisive, followed by a reversal. This pattern tends to mark the top of price advance, and since we are looking at the gold-to-silver ratio it likely means that we have seen the end of gold outperforming silver, at least in the short-term, and can expect silver to now begin to outperform gold.
The expected move going forward is a decline in the ratio back to 80:1, and more than likely being followed by an undershoot back down to 50:1. If you're playing precious metals, now would be a good time to go heavier in silver trades and then convert back to gold when the ratio hits 50:1 or lower.
BEYOND THE GOLDEN RATIO & TIME AND PRICE AND ALL THINGS AHEAD THE WORLD IS NOW AT THE CROSSROAD IN MAN KIND . THE GIFT I BEEN SHOW IN LIFE IS THAT IT IS A MOVEMENT IN TIME AND THAT HAS BEEN VERY CLEAR BASED ON THE SPIRALS I POSTED FOR FEB 8 TO 10 AND THE EVENT 3/18/21 AND 4/2 . . MANKIND AND THE NEXT 18 MONTHS FIRST I ONLY BELIEVE IN ALL THING HAPPEN AS THEY SHOULD AND THAT TIME AND SPACE ARE A MOVEMENT IN THE WAVE OF ENERGY FROM THE BEGINNING . THAT WAVE IS A FRACTAL WITHIN ALL THE UNIVERSE FROM TIME AND SPACE AND THE VIRUS . THERE IS A 89 YEAR CYCLE MANY I SEE GOING BACK AND FORWARD IN TIME . I DO KNOW THAT THIS IS NOT THE END FOR US BUT NO MATTER WHAT YOU SEE OR THINK THE WORLD AS A WHOLE WILL MOVE TO A HIGHER LEVEL STARTING OCT 2021 . THIS IS ALL BASED ON A LIFETIME SEEING THAT EVERYTHING IS BASED ON AND FROM THE GOLDEN RATIO OF HARMONICS . AND THAT THE SPIRALS IN TIME ARE BASED ON THE LUNAR PHASES WITHIN THE GOLD RATIO THANK YOU CHRIS . BEST OF TRADES I AM LONG 100% IN MANKIND MOVING FORWARD
AD Ratio Suggests Birth of a New Bull Market!AD Ratio Suggests Birth of a New Bull Market!
Or the madness of crowds.
The Advance-Decline Ratio (ADR) is a simple measure of how many stocks increase versus how many decline. A ratio of 1 means 1 company’s stock increases to every 1 that declines. A ratio of 4 means 4 increase to every 1 that declines.
It is a good measure of the bullishness of the market participants. The magic number I am using for this analysis is an ADR of 4, as anything above 4 increases to 1 typically indicates a turning point in the market.
Chart Setup:
Price – Log Weekly
AD Ratio – 10 Bar Moving Average + 200 Bar Moving Average
AD Ratio Red Line = 4 Indicating Extreme Bullishness
There are two stories here. You need to decide which one you believe.
Pre 2008 Crash – The Madness of Crowds.
During the Financial Crisis crash from 2007 to 2009 the crowds were simply wrong. Extreme ADR indicated only temporary market bottoms, which were followed by brief rallies then market collapse.
Post 2009 – The Birth of Bull Markets.
Since 2009 the market participants signaled extreme positive sentiment with an AD ratio above 4 on 9 separate occasions which all indicated the end of the bear market and birth of a new bull market.
This suggests one of two things:
1. During a major market crash the crowds are overly optimistic, underestimating the full impact of the economic devastation.
2. During a long-term bull market, the crowds are correct, in fact, it is the crowds of course, who power the bull market.
The Key Point.
The Corona Crash has shown us 2 extreme bursts of ADR buying above 7 for the week’s March 9 and April 6.
This means either the birth of a new bull market or the radical underestimation of the impact of Corona on the economy.
Final Summary.
I am not convinced either way.
Part of me thinks that this is the start of the new bull market, because in fact governments have done everything possible to stimulate the economy and save jobs and industry, there is no other choice apart from instant economic devastation. Interest rates will remain close to zero for the next 10 years and in governments stimulate inflation that the debt will eventually reduce by itself (according to the Economist April 24th Edition)
The other part of me thinks that we simply cannot move to a new market high without further market correction to account for the large losses in future earnings.
Do not forget.
This market is driven now by central banks, Trump and Macro-economics. This market will turn on its head with a few massive headlines.
Let’s have a discussion, let me know your thoughts below, I will try to reply to all.
If you Like, then Like and Follow to get more updates.
Stay healthy.
Barry
EUR/GBP short sells - 2:1 ratio- Is in a bearish price channel
- Is close to a crucial Pivot point
- Has a major zone for a re-entry below stoploss.
- Rejection of the 50 and 23 fib level
BMY is worth buyingBristol-Myers Squibb says it has seen no major business disruptions and expects no decrease in global demand for its drugs this year. That means the 3.5% dividend yield should stay stable, and BMY is a great value at 1.3 PEG. BMY also just got FDA approval for a multiple sclerosis drug, which could turn out to be a pretty big deal.
Most of the market has been trading based on macroeconomics, but as individual companies like BMY issue quantitative guidance, I think we're going to see more trading on company specifics. I bought a small position here and will add the dip if BMY heads south with the rest of the market next week.
Bitcoin/Gold Ratio - Is BTC topped out in terms of Gold?Interestingly enough, the long term chart of Bitcoin/Gold - AKA how many gold oz 1 bitcoin buys you, seems to be following the issuance curve of bitcoin supply...which is going to have less and less deflation going forward, due to the principle of Bitcoin. Doesn't mean anything for the U.S dollar price of bitcoin really, just implies that gold will out perform Bitcoin in a hyper inflationary environment, contrary to what many BTC bulls believe.
What do you guys think? I am open to all ideas. This could be wrong!
Gold-Silver ration long time predictionCrazy prediction for GoldSilver ratio. It is heading down to CoronaTown, all the way to 60 which is the all time modern times average, it will overshoot to the 45 area before bouncing back to the average.
Dow-Bitcoin ratioBeen following this for a long time.... looks like the bottom finally fell out of the trail.
Nokia may be worth nibbling as it approaches supportFactset, an agency that polls analysts, released a newsletter today titled "S&P 500 NOW PROJECTED TO REPORT A YOY DECLINE IN EARNINGS IN Q1 2020." The newsletter shows that analyst estimates of S&P 500 earnings have fallen from an expected 7% growth rate in Q1 to an expected -0.1% growth rate, and they're still coming down.
However, the newsletter also breaks things down by sector, and when you slice it that way, things look more complicated. The hardest hit sectors are materials, industrials, and consumer discretionary, all poised for double digit earnings decline. A few sectors are still poised for earnings growth in Q1, including communication services, with a 13+% growth rate. Information technology and utilities come in second and third place, with projected growth over 5%. Also set to grow are healthcare and real estate.
Now, earnings expectations likely will continue to decline, and even the outperforming sectors will fall with the rest of the market. But the outperforming sectors will start to find support sooner, and they will get outsized bounces when the market rallies. I don't suggest putting a lot of money here just yet, but it's worth taking a few nibbles at attractively valued companies in these sectors.
Nokia has support from about $3.30-3.50. The company has an attractive PEG of about 0.73, and it's been signing lots of deals lately in connection with the rollout of 5G. It plunged after suspending its dividend last year, but as the company recovers I think we could see the dividend return.
