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Comparison of parabolic moves in BitcoinGiven the recent parabolic move in Bitcoin, I thought I would take a look at previous parabolic moves. Disclaimer: The below is by no means an exact calculation, but more some things I noticed and wanted to share. Also, the dataset is way too small to get to any exact conclusions. Also, this is my first publication ;-) PAST I started with identifying all the parabolic moves I could find on the daily or weekly timeframes and draw best fitting arcs (yellow A-G), making sure the arcs would only move up and right (no down or left movement allowed). Then I added the measurements of the move up and the following maximum move down (white dashed arrows), giving me percentages. Now, the markets are not exact, so these measurements should me looked at in a rough way. What I first noticed, was that the bigger the parabolic movement up, the bigger the crash afterwards (percentage wise). Let's see if we can more details on that. First, I looked at A and B. They are very similar in the up move (200 vs 250%), and also quite similar in the down move (50-55% respectively). Let's just say for simplicity that a 250% parabolic up move results in a 55% down move. Then I looked at C and D. Very similar up moves (roughly around 2000%), and very similar down moves (roughly 85%). Now we get to E: the move up is only about half of A or B, and also the down move is less: about 40%. So, if the up move is twice as big (120 vs 250%), the down move is only about 15 percentage points bigger (40 vs 55%). Did I already mention that these numbers are not exact, and that I'm rounding them a lot? ;-) Now let's compare C & D with A & B: An up move of about 8x bigger (250 vs 2000%), results in a down move that is 30% percentage points bigger (85 vs 55%). Now, I looked at F, the mother of all bull markets in BTC. This curve show an increase of roughly 5500%, more than 2.5 times the increase of C & D. We don't know what the full down move is, since we're not sure the bear market is over. Now for simplicity's sake, let's just assume it is 2x the increase (way off, but this is just to illustrate an idea). So: E: 1x up move = -40% A & B: 2x up move = -55% (-15% extra) C & D: 16x up move = -85% (-30% extra; 8x compared with A & B, 16x compared with E) F: 32x up move = ? Now, looking at the above, one would conclude that the drop after F is probably larger than the drop after C or D, because the up move is also bigger. How much? Well, it's not linear and it has to be less than 100%, so let's see what we can find. I decided to plot the few datapoints we have in a graph, drawn by hand ;) To me, it looks like a parabolic curve, although more datapoints would be better. PRESENT AND FUTURE As you can see in the graph, the projection for the drop of our parabolic F move hardly fits on the graph, but the estimated drop would be something like 90-95%. I drew some orange arrows in the chart from the top of F to 1830 and 1360 levels, and those ended up being 90-93%, both likely targets (long term). We already dropped 84% to the 3000 area, which was also an area of support. Now we have started another parabolic move from 3k upwards, and as of writing we are at the 11k level. So far that is a 260% move up. Where will this move end? I decided to draw a best fit trend line (magenta) from 2012 through 2017 and right through the point where we dropped from 6k to 3k. Right now we are very close to this trend line and I think this will be big resistance, just like the diagonal trendline (in red) was when we got to 20k. If this magenta trend line happens to be the top of this parabolic move, and comparing with the previous parabolic moves, I expect a drop of about 55%. Targets of 6k (50%) and 5k (60%) are likely support areas here. Now what will happen in the future... nobody knows, but based on the parabolic curves I can see at least a bullish and a bearish scenario, assuming that we can't break the magenta trend line: BULLISH We drop about 55% from around the 11k level and stay above the green supporting trend line. This could set us up for another parabolic move, just like we got a big move F after E. This could take us to 250-500k bitcoin in a couple of years. BEARISH We drop about 55% from about the current 11k level and eventually drop below the green support line. I think it is then very likely we go to 1800-1300 levels and we'll have some more bear market for some years to come. If we happen to drop 85% from the current parabolic move (G) we end up at the 90-95% target for curve F (but that doesn't fit the idea).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sandervdberg
1
$IVZ Strategies on a Value Growth StockIVZ has low P/E, D/E, and P/B ratios, despite growing revenue and dividends. Therefore, my 5 year outlook is bullish. I suspect the best times to buy are around a low of $19.40 for a short turnaround, but the price may get as low as $18.58 in as little as 2-3 weeks if the impulse from Jan-Feb echos the latest high. Other possible low points for the suspected echo impulse, using fib levels, are 18.65, 18.93, 19.14, and 19.29. Pyramiding your buys using these levels should give a relatively low average position for long term growth, which can be sold off, probably during the year, for a profit to adjust the weight in the portfolio back to a reasonable level to meet your portfolio diversity goals. Despite the effort in averaging down and out, I do believe it is a worthy strategy to reap greater returns rather than buying once when it looks good. The average price per book value for this stock is less than one and averages greater than 1.65, according to Yahoo. To reach equivalent value if book value remained constant, which it will not, the factor is 1.8x. Earnings are expected to rise, so book value itself will rise over time. Book value has risen 50% in the past ten years, so a 5 year price target given today's suspected low and a 1.2x oversold factor (because who sells at value?) will be 19.40*1.8*1.25*1.2 = $52.38 or about a 170% return on investment, plus another $6 in 5 year straight dividends at $0.30 per quarter. Due to the volatility and bullish/bearish runs with bulls beating bears in the end, this makes a great swing trading opportunity. When the stock trends above 1.67% monthly or 0.38% weekly, the stock is performing greater than its exponential averages: Average Exponential Monthly (%) Growth: (2.7^(1/(12*5))-1)*100 = 1.67% Average Exponential Weekly (%) Growth: (2.7^(1/(365/7*5))-1)*100 = 0.38% This is likely to occur now and less likely over the course of 5 years. Therefore, linear price increments may be more useful in determining rapid growth in earlier stages. In which case, when the stock trades above $0.55 a month or $0.13, the stock is performing better than its linear averages: Average Monthly ($) Growth: (52.38-19.4)/(5*12) = $0.55 Average Weekly ($) Growth: (52.38-19.4)/(5*365/7) = $0.13 Right now, we are in a bit of a bull swing since Dec 24th, as with most (financial sector) stocks. There is some potential to ride this out for a while, so adjust your alerts to watch for the bear once it crosses down on the average expected growths. This stock has a tendency to go up in the early mornings around 10:00AM, so that would be your time to sell if the previous week was low and would not be your time to get hopeful.
NYSE:IVZLong
by ValueMyAsk
Garden Hose Pattern on a High DY REIT... Hurray for VolatilityNYSE:NLY is a bit less bearish in comparison to the other stocks in its peer group of REIT's with Div/Yield over 10%. You can see this since its P/E ratio (using FFO) is much higher, probably due to consistently high analyst ratings and their various reasons for evaluating it with neutral to positive ratings. As of recently, it has seen a weakness in volatility. In a triangle pattern, it approaches the 10.11 price point. At this point, the trend will see an arc, and a breakout will occur. Nothing trades flat forever, because every living thing has heat. I call this a garden hose pattern... because it sort of looks like a hose spraying a jet... and because I want to... Set your price points around 10.11 and look forward to a new wave of volatility. These 3-4 cent daily arc heights are stupid. The price/book value is a bit high, so I believe this is a good point to see a market correction. I would say my advice would be to short, if I had to guess. There may be some upward momentum left, but it will not sustain for long.
NYSE:NLY
by ValueMyAsk
Silver Has Some Catching Up to DoGold/Silver spread is still strong with a Gold/Silver ratio around 83, indicating strong bias to gold. With incoming panic in the markets, debasement of the dollar, or both, we can expect the bullish move in gold and silver to continue in the long-term despite all attempts at suppression within the futures exchange. Silver has some serious catching up to do post price fixing in the futures exchange. "Bet against the debt, become your own central bank." - Gregory Mannarino
TVC:GOLDLong
by Derivati_Capital
Silver : Negative Interest Rates, QE4, End of PetrodollarAll long-looking indicators point to silver being undervalued vs gold . Top chart shows silver candlesticks vs gold red line as percentage returns since 2006 in the case of these investment trusts. Middle indicator is the Trader's Dynamic Index ( TDI ) which holds a combination of moving average, volatility and momentum trends. Bottom indicator is the infamous Gold:Silver ratio. Silver is sitting on top of the .382 fib level support shown in the chart, which is where the current cost of production resides around $14.75/oz. Low risk, high reward - this is a perfect setup for those interested in making an inflation play going toward negative rates, QE4 and the end of the petrodollar agreement. % Returns Analysis: Silver below Gold -> Silver undervalued Fibonacci Level: Strong support at cost of production near $14.75/oz TDI: Bullish divergence in formation Gold/Silver ratio: 83:1 -> Silver undervalued Note: SLV is not equivalent to owning physical silver. Trade SLV at the risk of fund insolvency and loss of investment - most holdings are suggested to be physical.
AMEX:SLVLong
by Derivati_Capital
Silver is a Screaming BuyAll long-looking indicators point to silver being undervalued vs gold. Top chart shows silver candlesticks vs gold red line as percentage returns since 1998. Middle indicator is the Trader's Dynamic Index (TDI) which holds a combination of moving average, volatility and momentum trends. Bottom indicator is the infamous Gold:Silver ratio. Silver is sitting on top of the .382 fib level support shown in the chart, which is where the current cost of production resides around $14.75/oz. Low risk, high reward - this is a perfect setup for those interested in making an inflation play going toward negative rates, QE4 and the end of the petrodollar. % Returns Analysis: Silver below Gold -> Silver undervalued Fibonacci Level: Strong support at cost of production near $14.75/oz TDI: Bullish divergence in formation Gold/Silver ratio: 83:1 -> Silver undervalued
TVC:SILVERLong
by Derivati_Capital
1
SPY Pattern Analysis - The Magic Ratio 1.865, Plus or Minus .01"My problem is that I have been persecuted by a (ratio). For the last few months this (ratio) has followed me around, has intruded in my most private data, and has assaulted me from the pages of our most public journals. This (ratio) assumes a variety of disguises, being sometimes a little larger and sometimes a little smaller than usual, but never changing so much as to be unrecognizable. The persistence with which this (ratio) plagues me is far more than a random accident. There is, to quote a famous senator, a design behind it, some pattern governing its appearances. Either there really is something unusual about the (ratio) or else I am suffering from delusions of persecution." Dry humor aside - in comparing various inflection points and critical resistance boundaries of the SPY during the 2008-2009 recession and today's 2018-2019 "correction", I've identified one particular ratio that haunts my analysis. To be precise, 1.865 +/- .01 has appeared, without fail, at seemingly each and every corner - at every major toss and turn - of the present market. By simply dividing the daily lows or highs of the matched "reference points", such as 22 Jan 2008 and 26 Dec 2018, a ratio could be found - in this instance, ~1.8552381. When applied to the reference points shown in the chart above, we end up with a list of similar numbers: 293.94 157.52 ~1.8660487 280.40 149.68 ~1.8733298 233.76 126.00 ~1.8552381 260.70 139.61 ~1.8673447 Very interesting, isn't it? A tad off our usual fib 1.618, but nothing too difficult to work with. By averaging the four reference points we have gathered, we can then determine a "working estimate" of ~1.8654903. Apply this ratio to the next potential turning point in the market - for example, a local bottom at 131.73 on 07 Feb 2008 - and voila: a target estimate of ~245.74. A range could be estimated as well, using 1.865 +/- .01 as the upper and lower boundaries. For the same example, the estimate target range would be 244.42~247.06, presenting a gap of 2.64. Will this work to pinpoint exact dates or price targets? Probably not. Is this a potential fractal of human nature? Possibly. Either way, it presents itself as something potentially significant. I recommend you to trade like you drive - safe and steady in a Benz or wild and out in a convertible roadster. Regardless, the wheel is in your hands, not mine.
AMEX:SPYShort
by fenditendi
2
Bitcoin Price Volume Ratio Analysis Update Oct 21st 2018Well a peak has formed on the price volume ratio which is looking like the hidden bear div will play out. I'm leaning toward this playing out and possibly creating a new bullish divergence if the price falls to test $6k again. 1. Level price had to have reached to invalidate hidden bear div by creating a peak in price above the ~$8200 level. 2. Peak in price occurring in this region will validate the hidden bear div. 3. a) This region could have previously invalidated the hidden bear div, if the last dip had been deeper and price hadn't climbed back to current levels. b) If the hidden bear div plays out and the price falls below the previous price dip at ~$6350, the formation of a bullish divergence is a strong possibility. In other words a dip that doesn't breach $6k and is below that threshold most likely will form a PVR bull div. A dip breaching $6k most likely will have a large effect on PVR and most likely will invalidate the potential bull div. TLDR Another dip to test $6k again could signal a good reversal.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by rumpypumpydumpy
5
ETH/BTC ... Uncanny 5ths ?When venturing over from the default use of logarithmic charts, to linear .. I noticed (please tell me otherwise) what seems to be, significant , inflection points in the BITTREX:ETHBTC pairing chart. Each inflection point, takes place on / around the 5th of each month. Whether to the upside, downside, fall/upside ( once ) , chop/fall ( twice ). What could possibly be the reasoning or staging behind these major inflection points, that seem to take place on . around the 5th of each of each month? Any thoughts /observations / perspective welcomed.. otherwise, please don't hesitate to call me crazy.
by jwilk484