WHY IS DEFI LOSING SO MUCH?Hello, alts are suffering (see my previous idea), but why is defi suffering even more? Should it not be the FUTURE?
Well, there are basically two reasons.
The first and most obvious one is that, despite other alts, old generation alts, the defi alts experienced an astonishing rise that would have come to an abrupt end anyway. They had to come to more realistic levels.
The second one, that also answers the question "yes, but why are they getting slaughtered?", lies in the rational behind the defi world.
DeFi (as it is now) is lending and borrowing. Mainly lending at astonishing % to people willing to pay huge interests to swap their coins and invest in more profitable coins. Why the hell would someone borrow BAT at 60%? To farm defi coins and to invest in projects that have a 60%+ expected returns. For the game to stay in equilibrium, coins HAVE TO RISE. With the first fall, the whole game crumble down.
It also depends on BTC. With BTC indecision, many are in usdt and btc only, simply not willing to deploy their coins in any way. They just want to stay liquid. We need to wait for a better moment to re enter DeFi
Rationale
YEAR LONG ANALYSIS. DON'T BE FOOLED, THINK RATIONAL.I am not a fan of conspiracy theory so here is the logical deal. Most of you who had investments before the crash will benefit for this going to previous levels to recoup your losses. Traders also picked up on this idea and use it in their favour to make some money, helping the stock market to go up. It is logical to go with the trend, irrational is to stay on the sidelines. Again, please be careful here because markets reflect two things:
(1) - people's needs and desires
(2) - the economy
Now, everyone knows it is a time bomb, but it is reasonable to grow until it is not. That is when earnings and Q2 reports start coming in. The current financial indices are based on information from Jan, Feb, March, where March was slightly affected. Thus, I emphasise, WE HAVE YET TO SEE THE ECONOMIC IMPACT of April and May, where the majority of us were in lockdown. We should expect reports to be catastrophic in terms of numbers. This reports should come around late JULY.
A bit before this, the narrative in the media will be directed towards "doom and gloom" scenarios and I expect late June or early July people will start predicting that shit will hit the fan. Action markets are always proactive. So, we can expect a sell-off before the actual news come in. A third-grader can see it coming. IF you ask me why not earlier, it's because as I said, something is reasonable to go up UNTIL it is not. Thus, we can expect a sell-off mid-July and for a while, we will have a lot of bad news. (July- bad, August - bad, September- neutral?, November- DING!)
I think here is the time a new wave of bulls can set the scene. We got bored with the bad news and we know what is going on. Unemployment, not enough money, bla bla. But, here humans get optimistic because it "has been a while". Greatly timed with US elections, the re-election of Trump could be a great move to buy as I believe he will be able to push it further during his stay (we're talking 2024). It is logical to buy at that step since:
(1) He is pro-market
(2) Stocks were down for a while = a good price to go in
I hope you like this analysis. I am a rational trader and I do not believe in "dark forces" who move the markets. Markets are people.
(P.S. Psychology student here)
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AUDUSD uptrend continuationIn this trade I'm aiming to ride the continuing uptrend to the next swing high.
If I'm right it'll continue through the old high on its way up to the high set back in late April. Stop is set below current swing low as indicated by the bottom of the red box. Take profit is set at next swing high (green box). I'm not confident that this trend will continue beyond that previous high and I'm not interested in predicting the future.
Just ride the current trend to the next likely bump in the road.