Can Defense Industry Giants Turn Global Tensions into SustainablIn a fascinating paradox of modern defense economics, RTX Corporation stands at the epicenter of escalating global security demands while grappling with production constraints that challenge its ability to meet them. With a remarkable $90 billion defense backlog and recent approval for a $744 million missile sale to Denmark, RTX exemplifies how geopolitical tensions are reshaping the aerospace and defense industry landscape. Yet this surge in demand raises profound questions about the sustainability of growth in an industry where production capacity faces inherent limitations.
The company's financial performance tells a compelling story of adaptation and resilience, with its stock attracting increased attention from major analysts and an upward revision of earnings guidance. However, beneath these promising figures lies a more complex narrative: RTX must balance the immediate pressures of global defense requirements against the long-term challenges of production capacity and technological innovation. This delicate equilibrium becomes even more critical as the company serves not just one nation's defense needs, but those of at least 14 allied nations simultaneously.
What emerges is a thought-provoking case study in strategic industrial scaling: How can defense manufacturers like RTX transform short-term geopolitical pressures into sustainable long-term growth? The answer may lie in the company's diversified approach, combining traditional defense contracts with innovative aerospace solutions, while navigating the intricate balance between immediate market demands and long-term strategic planning. This scenario challenges our traditional understanding of defense industry dynamics and forces us to reconsider how global security needs might reshape industrial capacity in the decades to come.
Raytheon
Raytheon's Defense Division Shines in Q1 a Deep DiveRaytheon Corporation's Q1 2024 earnings reveal impressive growth driven by its defense division, which achieved $6.6 billion in sales and contributed significantly to a $202 billion backlog. Key highlights include major defense system sales to Germany and Ukraine. Despite overall growth, civilian divisions like Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney also performed well but experienced declining profit margins. Raytheon's innovative commercial satellite imagers, launched as part of Maxar's WorldView Legion, promise advanced imaging capabilities for various sectors. The article concludes with a bullish recommendation on Raytheon stock, suggesting long positions with entry at $102.59 targets ranging from $105.93 to $119.00, and a stop-loss at $93.01.
DFEN 11/17 17CAMEX:DFEN has shown a pattern of responding positively to conflict, this combined with an earnings event for NYSE:RTX , $NO and NYSE:BA could prove to bring significant upside. 3 Bearish imbalances that need to be filled, PT1 at $16.82, PT2 at $18.12, OB at $20.11. I am bullish on defense earnings due to the conflict in Ukraine.
thehill.com
War/Defence Stocks: Macro Fib SchematicsThis handcrafted idea using Advanced Fibonacci Tools beholds 6 of the largest War Mongering "Defence" contractors.
( Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, L3 Harris Tech )
These Fibonacci Schematics show all price manipulation of Support and Resistance. I've started the timeline at 1999 for many reasons. One being the already conceived and "soon to be" conflicts of the Middle East with the "war of terror." (Give me a break)
2001 kickstarted another HUGE flow of stimulus into these defence contractors to fund the West's newest war to keep people "proud to be an American". Solely by continuing the collective punishment of millions of people in the Middle East region. This had already been going on for about 2 decades at least before 9/11.
The American Government killed hundreds of thousands to millions of Iraqis and Afghanistan people through this collective punishment. They needed a way to continue their genocidal intent and ethnic cleansing with a false flag terror attack to get the American People back on their side. 9/11 brought out the worst in our country and the "PatRioTiC" US citizens green lit their leaders to dish out more collective punishment even though their leaders had been lying though their teeth for countless years.... I need give only one example with "weapons of mass destruction"
Obviously this matters because these Defence Contractors have blood all over their hands that they are basically swimming in it.
Anyways, this is just a Macro Analysis. These lines represent death and destruction so investing in them is a moral dilemma which I obviously advice against.
Raytheon will succeed in WW3Raytheon Technologies Corporation is in a wonderful position, and will likely benefit heavily in the coming years. They are a company with strong fundamentals, plenty of employees, and constant demand from the US military. Missile defense systems will be sought after for decades to come.
Russian missiles have reportedly struck Poland today during a massive strike on Ukraine's infrastructure. US aid to Ukraine has reached over $5 billion, and does not seem to be stopping anytime soon. The attack will seemingly increase tensions between Russia and NATO, possibly leading to more sanctions or war.
Raytheon has plenty of room to decrease in the short term, but I personally think it is a great long-term play. The small dividend allows for more growth, and the profits are rising. I could surely see it hitting $100 in 2023.
This is in no way financial advice, I am not responsible for any losses taken. Invest at your own risk, this is an extremely volatile market.
Raytheon - A Potential Earnings Pump To WatchEveryone wants to get rich quick. Because getting rich quick means you:
a) Get rich
b) Quick
Then you can wear big ugly sunglasses, a crappy t-shirt, flipflops, sit on the beach, eat a lot of meat, drink a lot of alcohol, and be promiscuous with women.
This is the modern human's dream, right?
And so everyone loves to speculate on potential earnings pumps and dumps.
There really is more to aim for in life.
Raytheon is one of the U.S. Military Industrial Complex cornerstones and is more or less a weapons mill for the NATO proxy war in Ukraine, which is of note because of the recent escalations of the conflict and how it can affect the U.S. Petrodollar, and thus bonds, oil, gold, equities, everything.
DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia
Geopolitically, the conflict between China and the International Rules Based Order is heating up. The current edict is to "de-risk but not decouple" from China (notice they never say "from the Chinese Communist Party"?).
In mid-June CEO Hayes was quoted by the propaganda machines as stating that decoupling from China was pretty much impossible because of all the parts and components that are manufactured in the mainland.
What this means, if you ask me, is that going forward, certain companies are going to have a very hard time meeting their target EPS and revenue estimates.
Raytheon may very well be one of them, as foreshadowed by a salvo of sanctions the Xi Jinping administration placed on them and Lockheed Martin.
The situation in China is very volatile right now. The IRBO wants control of China when the CCP falls. Xi Jinping and the other nationalists want to make sure that outside forces do not steal the motherland.
And so one day soon, we may find that Xi has thrown away the CCP in the middle of the U.S. night, and the markets will have themselves a series of consecutive red days like we've all never seen before.
Xi can weaponize the crimes against humanity that the Party and the Jiang Zemin faction have committed in the persecution of Falun Gong that started on July 20, 1999, and use the truth to protect both himself and China.
Organ harvesting and genocide of a group of 100 million spiritual cultivators with upright faith is certainly enough of a weapon to handle all the threats the motherland can be facing.
So why do you care about this if you're trading Raytheon?
Because a basic principle of markets is they go up when big money is selling and go down when big money is buying.
Raytheon and other military companies ironically never really pumped following the QE recovery from the COVID pandemic dump.
It wasn't until the Ukraine War began that Raytheon finally ran the highs.
And then it retraced.
That kind of retrace is actually really bullish and what bulls should want to see if they want their $145 billion~ company to become a $1.4 trillion company.
But the problem with the theory is more manifest on the weekly charts:
31 weeks of ranging and no breakout is not bullish.
And yet, after taking lows, it continues to recover. The most notable price swing is the $105 to $92 leg that just occurred.
I feel that Raytheon has some fundamental hidden bearish divergences to it and this is why it has traded this way all along, with the ultimate purpose of selling a lot high, and then selling it all above the all time high.
This hidden divergence, I think, is that U.S.-based companies may find themselves cut off from the Chinese supply chain in the very near future.
Only to tip all the bulls on their backs like stranded turtles and then dump and dump and dump and dump and not come back.
So I believe that with the setup at hand, the catalyst is actually the July earnings.
But if you look back at previous earnings, Raytheon doesn't have major pumps. It can go a bit and then it will run after.
Implied volatility on options for the July 28 expiry are only 20%, slightly higher than the 17% average.
But before we get there, I expect we're going to see prices return to the $92-93 range and give the best buying opportunity.
The catalyst for this, I believe, will simply be market-wide correction, which I outline in the following two posts:
Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap
And
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
In summary, there will be a shakeout in equities that will probably not be long lived, even if it's violent.
And after that, things will make their final run up, many of which will set new highs or new 52W highs, etc.
What's left for the remainder of 2023 and the start of 2024 doesn't look like it's going to be very pleasant, to speak frankly.
So make sure if you see Raytheon at a new high, you don't go getting ahead of yourself, longing the top.
War Giants Greed: Secret Military Industrial Complex TechnologyThe War on Terror: A Cash Infusion: "The global War on Terror" Massive air quotes , initiated in 2001 following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, led to a substantial surge in defense spending, especially by the U.S. This created an economic windfall for defense companies, fuelling their research and development initiatives.
Black Budget Projects: Part of the military's classified "black budget" is allocated to defense companies for top-secret projects. This could include advanced propulsion systems, stealth technology, energy weapons, and yes, even so-called anti-gravity technology.
Alien Technology Reverse-Engineering: Some conspiracy theories propose that defense companies have recovered crashed extraterrestrial spacecraft and are reverse-engineering their technology for military purposes. This narrative often ties back to the infamous Roswell incident in 1947, where it's suggested that debris from an alien spacecraft was collected and studied.
UFOs as Military Aircraft: Another common theory suggests that some UFO sightings are actually sightings of advanced, top-secret military aircraft developed by defense companies. In this theory, the strange movements and high speeds of these UFOs can be explained by undisclosed technological advancements.
Government and Corporate Secrecy: Conspiracy theories often hinge on the idea of widespread secrecy among governments and corporations. Theorists suggest that these entities possess advanced technology (possibly of extraterrestrial origin) but keep it secret for reasons of national security, profit, or control.
Area 51 and Skunk Works: Area 51, a classified remote detachment of Edwards Air Force Base, is often mentioned in conspiracy theories. Lockheed Martin's Skunk Works, known for developing groundbreaking aircraft like the SR-71 Blackbird and the F-117 Nighthawk, is also rumored to test new technologies there. These rumors fuel theories of secret advanced technology development.
Advanced Technology Suppression: Some theories suggest that highly advanced technologies, such as zero-point energy or anti-gravity, have been discovered and are being suppressed by defense companies, the military, or powerful elites. The rationale behind these theories varies, but common themes include maintaining control over the populace and protecting established industries.
1. Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT): $95 billion
2. Boeing Co (BA): $132 billion
3. Raytheon Technologies Corp (RTX): $134 billion
4. Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC): $57 billion
5. General Dynamics Corp (GD): $44 billion
6. L3Harris Technologies Inc (LHX): $42 billion
The U.S. Department of Defense only represents a portion of these companies' business, as they may also have contracts with other parts of the government, as well as with foreign governments and private entities.
For example, in 2020, Lockheed Martin reportedly received $75 billion in contract obligations from the U.S. government,
--Boeing received about $28 billion
--Raytheon about $27 billion
--Northrop Grumman about $19 billion
--General Dynamics about $15 billion
--L3Harris about $9 billion.
These figures are for one single year and only for U.S. government contracts.
Boeing BA - A Dark HarbourI have never looked at Boeing until today, when I saw some guy posting ideas about it while I was having lunch and I didn't even recognize the ticker, and so I took a look at it, and was surprised to see what I found.
In considering this company, I completely understand that they've had problems with their planes, and big ones. But I have also said that I do not put much weight in the ostensible correlation between fundamentals of a company and price.
So long as the equity is still being maintained by Wall Street's behemoths, price action will remain orderly made and constitute a fractal that is rationally written and contains the combined intelligence of all market participants.
Boeing is really notable on the monthly charts:
Frankly, its bullish price action looked even better than what stuff like AAPL and TSLA printed during this unsustainable Federal Reserve money printer-backed tractor pull to SPX 4,800, and it occurred before COVID, and was accompanied by heavy distribution.
It only finally corrected when COVID hit, and yet it only swept out the '16 low, which led to the original impulse to $450.
Even more taste bud-piquing is the weekly chart:
BA has not had a shred of bullish impulse since March of 2021. More or less, while the entire market went ape-up in a straight line, Boeing has just grinded downwards.
This is highly indicative of significant smart money accumulation.
When the big 2022 correction started, Boeing lost 30% like everyone else, but formed a 24-month double bottom and protected its pre-COVID low with a generous wick and a healthy bounce.
More importantly, there is a gap that appears both on the daily and weekly candles at $330, which is exceptionally notable considering this mid-term range high, printed 18 months ago, wasn't far away at $~279.
I believe that a significant shakeout in the market will come shortly.
VIX - 9x8 = 72
But based on the price action of Boeing, I can't help but feel this is the definition of oversold and that an expectation from short sellers that this is going to turn around and rip south to new lows is going to be met with only one outcome: liquidation.
For other defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, although they have totally different (and much more bullish) price action compared BA, they share the characteristic of severely lagging the overall market in terms of bull impulse.
And these are arguably the most critical companies underpinning the United States and the globalist empire.
This leads me to believe that what lies ahead is a catalyst that will see defense and aerospace stocks go on a _significant_ bull run, providing an unlikely harbour amid an overall market that sees both equities and commodities revisiting (and breaking) pre-COVID market structure.
SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws
For Boeing, it's still too expensive to buy, trading above the equilibrium point of this June-forward dealing range.
However, if this thesis that Boeing will go on a tear and not turn around and die is correct, I would want to see it fall to only a certain point and not flirt with the double bottom or the even the June gap lows.
The best buy signal, hands down, will be a dump into the $135 range, accompanied by market makers reverently supporting this area.
If so, you should definitely expect this whole 18 month range below $280 gets cleaned up, and likely in a highly aggressive fashion.
The question is, what serves as a catalyst for the defense and aerospace industry to moon?
There are no pleasant answers.
Raytheon Technologies – Whopping 60% Shorting Opportunity?If you like this idea, please don’t forget to Boost it.
Fundamental Indicators:
Sector – Industrials
US Business Cycle Stage – late cycle, when this sector is neutral
Revenue – consistent growth for the past 5 years, although just 6% average annual rate, the performance in 2022 TTM is considerably slowing down
Profits – although slight increase in 2022TTM, it has still not recovered to pre-pandemic levels
Net margin – 7% which is still below pre-pandemic levels
P/E – the highest historic level with ratio of 31 compared to S&P500 with 21, Industrials sector with 21 and historic average level of 11
Liabilities - debt ratio is at 0.55 which is within the norm, Net Debt/ EBITDA is 2.48 – no problems with debt
Conclusion – although the company is recovering from pandemic but still hasn’t caught up to the previous levels, and given current overpriced valuation, it is very likely to go into correction to get back to the fair value
Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
Main scenario of this idea suggests that we are still observing development of the global growth cycle which is currently at the stage of starting corrective wave 4 (see higher timeframe graph)
Since the longest correction in the shape of a Running Triangle that has lasted between 1987 and 1994 completed, this company has enjoyed explosive growth with circa 2100%. However, the whole movement is choppy with a lot of crossings hence likely to be an Ending Diagonal (see guidelines for Ending Diagonals below)
The historic high which was formed in March 2022 was the point of completion of wave 3 in the Ending Diagonal and now we are observing formation of the first leg of wave 4, presumably as a double zigzag. Wave W has completed, wave X is likely to finalise at the price level $97.32
Once completed, there will be another bull run in wave Y with the target range $67-$78 – which may present up to 30% shorting opportunity. However, longer term target is potentially $40 which is whopping 60%
This is a higher timeframe to reflect the full history of Raytheon Technologies Corporation and to provide full wave count:
This is the link to the guidelines for Ending Diagonals
What do you think about Raytheon Technologies Corporation and its short term prospects?
Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves. And BOOST this idea if you like it.
Thanks
RTX - potential setupsNYSE:RTX
Raytheon Technologies Corporation , an aerospace and defense company, provides systems and services for the commercial, military, and government customers worldwide.
It operates through four segments: Collins Aerospace Systems, Pratt & Whitney, Raytheon Intelligence & Space, and Raytheon Missiles & Defense.
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👉 1. Price goes ABOVE the selected range on the picture. Long positions to activate.
👉 2. Price goes BELOW the selected range. below. Short positions to activate.
⚠️ Important Notes:
1. Follow your risk management rules.
2. Timeframes: up to 1D
Good luck and profit to all
Raytheon getting nuked. RTXIndeed. A Wave, B Wave as a condensing or constricting triangle, pivot and now just awaiting confirmation.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
Raytheon on the breakout ?A repeated patter on the weekly RTX chart appears to be forming, and technical indicators are set up similarly.
The daily chart is also in alignment as previously. Technical Indicators have just crossed over and suggest a breakout is in order.
About 15% upside potential with upside target at 113.80, about mid-September 2022.
Fundamental and geopolitical alignment should start appearing soon...
Watch this one!
Raytheon zigzagging. RTXGoals 94, 92. Invalidation at 104 .
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
Raytheon Oversold, Divergent. RTXImmediate targets 87, 82, 79. Invalidation 100.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
Ex2, Buy the Rumor Sell the NewsLet’s look at the recent news with Ukraine.
Anyone who bought the US rumor about Russian aggression profited in weapons manufacturing stocks from December to present day.
This is example is not meant to lean in any direction of morality as much as it is meant to show how news hints at the direction of the markets.
- The US has been working of possible Russian invasion since December 2021
- Biden publicly proclaimed this warning on Jan 27
- Invasion started last week.
Raytheon Technologies is up 20% from December 2021. Seeing new all time highs
- On Dec 20 $RTX has double bottom and golden cross on Jan 6
- Currently the price is consolidating at upper resistance,
- Upward movement likely to continue if NATO anxiety over Russian aggression will most likely continue to bolster the price of weapons stocks for now and into the near future.
2/13/22 RTXRaytheon Technologies Corporation ( NYSE:RTX )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Aerospace & Defense)
Market Capitalization: 142.598B
Current Price: $95.27
Breakout price: $94.60 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $94.50-$89.40
Price Target: $99.80-$100.60 (1st), $126.00-$127.40 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 48-52d (1st), 540-560d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $RTX 3/18/22 100c, $RTX 1/20/23 100c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.26/contract, $7.15/contract
LMT LONG/ Lockheed Martin is a giant of advanced defense industrIt is not a secret to anyone that Lockheed Martin participates in the production of the most important American warplanes, which are the backbone of the American air force, such as the F-22 and F-16
It produces the UGM-133A Trident II nuclear missile
It is the most important line of US nuclear defense
It produces many aircraft, missiles, advanced electronic systems and satellites
And I think that this is the company with the unique technology that it owns. I expect it to continue going up and back to the technical analysis clearly rising.
And financial analysis also gives a bullish signal
By going back to history, you will notice that the company is a strongly bullish trend
RTX Long Raytheon Tech Corp Com ( RTX ) looks to break out of a bull flag after a ABC correction. On the daily timeframe , we have a pin bar on the 50 EMA signifying a support zone . February option contracts have good Open Interest (OI) and volume . Daily squeeze with momentum curling on the daily and hourly timeframe. Look for a break of top trendline