Rb1
Gasoline Down + Oil Extends Losses in Asia With Crude DownHeadlines:
• Crude Extends its Losses in Asia With NYMEX Crude Down -3.16% + RBOB Gasoline Down -3.29%
• UN Secretary General Calls for Immediate Ceasefire After 33 Turkish Soldiers Killed in Idlib
• Asian Equities Feel Full Force of Sell Pressure with Nikkei225 Down -4.60%
Long-Term Prospects of RBOB GasolineThe RBOB Gasoline is in a Bear Market Rally with price trading above the 50 ema, which is below the 200 ema, which is below the 800 week ema. The 50 week ema is currently slightly up trending, but by and large the long term emas are mostly flat. This implies an accumulation/distribution zone. The intermediate term Elliott Wave requires a rally above 1.7785 to complete this c of the x-wave (which is currently taking place) before resumption of the Primary b-wave to bottom below 1.4475. From a fundamental perspective this is likely to happen by Spring, just in time for prices to head back up for the Summer driving Season.
The Market is in a Bear Market Rally on the daily, with price above the 50 ema, which is below the 200 ema, which is below the 800 ema. Price is trading up against a long-term down trend line currently above the 9/13/30/50 emas and is completing the third of three pushes up. A likely upside target for this rally is 1.8366 which is the weekly 800 ema, and above the a-wave high of 1.7785. We’re still in an uptrend as long as each day closes above the 13 ema which is currently at 1.7066.
The Market is giving early warning of a possible Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price above the 50 ema, which is above the 800 ema, but the 200 ema is still below the 800 ema. Price would have to close below 1.794 for this Bear Market Rally to be considered over. The Oil Market is rallying as a result of Middle Eastern turmoil, as well as all the FED Repo and Not-QE money creating a Risk On environment.
I would expect this market to rally into over-head resistance here in January, and then turn down for a little while as the excess end of year REPO money unwinds, and turmoil in the ME subsides for a little while. This would allow the x-wave to top, and the market to sell off into the y-wave bottom.
This is my RBOB Gasoline look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
Gasoline: Repeating a 1980s pattern. Major bullish break ahead.We have discovered a 1980s pattern on Gasoline (RB) that is strikingly simalar the recent candle action on 1W. We are rather puzzled though as to which point of the 1980s sequence we are currently at.
In 1980s the Golden Cross (MA50 over MA200) emerged after a Double Bottom. Currently we are past that Golden Cross and the price is approaching the last low on a sequence bearing many similar characteristics with the old pattern. This leads us to believe that the Golden Cross is irrelevant on this pattern and that the price mostly follows the trend of the 1W MA50 into similar benchmarks of the 1980 pattern.
For that reason it may be viable to start taking long positions with a projected Target Zone of 2.5000 - 2.8000.
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Gasoline (RB1!): Bullish reversal.Gasoline made two important break outs this week: 1) above the 1D Lower High trend line and 2) the 1.7659 4H Resistance. Trading now on standard bullish set up (RSI = 62.821, MACD = 0.013, Highs/Lows = 0.0339), a Channel Up may emerge if the 1.7868 Resistance is rejected. If broken then the uptrend will most likely continue until it reaches the MA200. It will be extremely positive if the MA50 turns into a support now. The long term TP is 1.9000.
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Gasoline: How high can it get?This is a long term analysis on Gasoline on the 1W chart. We are trying to determine where this aggressive buying sequence that started at the end of December will stop.
The previous similar sequence stopped just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Then it bottomed just under the 0.500 level and consolidated before it resumed the uptrend.
We expect a similar pattern this time as well. The current 0.618 Fibonacci level is at 1.8883, so expect a top around 1.8600. Similarly the 0.500 level is at 1.5543, so this is a projected pull back mark.
This analysis is best suited for long term traders and investors who are looking for a safe and high R/R position for the next bull run.
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RISING CHANNEL IN GASOLINE (TRAILS CRUDE OIL)No long explanation here, a rising channel in gasoline which will break to the downside so we are not yet cleared for bull trend just yet, same goes for crude oil as gasoline market trails crude, though sometimes ahead of crude in movement.
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LONG UGA @ $28.50 for Gasoline Futures bounce from $1.64Gasoline Futures (RBOB Gasoline Futures) likely counter trend bounce here off 200weekSMA support at $1.66 to reclaim long-term moving average support of 50monthSMA at $1.70, then rally to test 100weekSMA resistance at $1.80.
Technical Analysis:
- Gasoline Futures (RBOB Gasoline Futures) now testing long-term support of 200weekSMA at $1.66.
- $1.66 also strong price support from Feb 2018 for potential double bottom pattern
- Daily & Weekly RSI extremely oversold
- Daily MACD record lows
- 50monthSMA long-term support sitting at $1.70 to continue uptrend from 2016 lows
- Potential bottom hammer candle on hourly chart today at $1.66
Fundamental Analysis:
Over recent weeks, we have seen an almost perfect bearish storm in the Crude Oil market that sent the price of futures from a high of $76 to low of $61, a decline of about 19% in less than one month. Rising production, increasing inventories, a strong dollar, concerns over trade, and the realization that the sanctions on Iran include some exceptions, all led the price of the energy commodity lower in a dramatic corrective move. These factors have had a greater impact on its bi-product Gasoline, which is also undergoing a seasonal bearish period during the winter months. However, we feel this move has been overextended to the downside as there are still 3 fundamental reasons why oil is close to low and could spark a counter trend rally in Gasoline.
- Turmoil in the Middle East could result in a decrease in production and rapid price increase
- OPEC expected to cut production at their bi-annual meeting Dec. 6th
- Pullback of USD from highs due to US election results could relieve some of the bearish weight on commodity prices
- Demand for the energy commodity remains strong with increasing population and rising heating oil cracks
RDOB Gasoline showing an upward trend with LONG SIGNALSame strategy as the related ideas below.
Currently reading a long signal. Is that because Winter is approaching in the northern side of the sphere?
Strategy
Refer to BTCUSD and TRNUSDT related ideas below for detail into strategy, which works well with only high volume/volatile coins.
Summary: All indicators must cross to give a strong buy/sell signal
i.e. fibonacci lines, bollinger bands , macd , rsi must be crossed simultaneously.
PNL = +13.8%
Max Drawdown = 0.2% !!!
2 closed trades in total spanning ~4+ months (over 3% profit a month)
p.S. its a shame the graph above doesn't allow you to scroll back to view the whole range of time :(, but you can still view all the trades below