Long-Term Prospects of RBOB GasolineThe RBOB Gasoline is in a Bear Market Rally with price trading above the 50 ema, which is below the 200 ema, which is below the 800 week ema. The 50 week ema is currently slightly up trending, but by and large the long term emas are mostly flat. This implies an accumulation/distribution zone. The intermediate term Elliott Wave requires a rally above 1.7785 to complete this c of the x-wave (which is currently taking place) before resumption of the Primary b-wave to bottom below 1.4475. From a fundamental perspective this is likely to happen by Spring, just in time for prices to head back up for the Summer driving Season.
The Market is in a Bear Market Rally on the daily, with price above the 50 ema, which is below the 200 ema, which is below the 800 ema. Price is trading up against a long-term down trend line currently above the 9/13/30/50 emas and is completing the third of three pushes up. A likely upside target for this rally is 1.8366 which is the weekly 800 ema, and above the a-wave high of 1.7785. We’re still in an uptrend as long as each day closes above the 13 ema which is currently at 1.7066.
The Market is giving early warning of a possible Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price above the 50 ema, which is above the 800 ema, but the 200 ema is still below the 800 ema. Price would have to close below 1.794 for this Bear Market Rally to be considered over. The Oil Market is rallying as a result of Middle Eastern turmoil, as well as all the FED Repo and Not-QE money creating a Risk On environment.
I would expect this market to rally into over-head resistance here in January, and then turn down for a little while as the excess end of year REPO money unwinds, and turmoil in the ME subsides for a little while. This would allow the x-wave to top, and the market to sell off into the y-wave bottom.
This is my RBOB Gasoline look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
