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Australian dollar rally continues, Trump tariffs loomThe Australian dollar has posted strong gains for a second straight day. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6306, up 0.47% on the day. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on Tuesday, in a move that was widely expected by markets. Still, the Australian dollar reacted positively, gaining 0.48% on Tuesday. The RBA statement noted that underlying inflation continued to ease in line with the Bank's forecast, but the Board "needs to be confident that this progress will continue" so that inflation remains sustainable at the midpoint of the 2%-3% target band. The statement said there was "significant" uncertainty over global trade developments, pointing to the threat of further US tariffs and possible counter-tariffs from targeted countries. The central bank's decision was made in the midst of a hotly contested election campaign, and a rate cut would likely have been attacked by the opposition parties as political interference. In a press conference after the meeting, Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the uncertainty over the global outlook due to US trade policy but sought to assure the markets by saying that Australia was "well placed" to weather the potential storm of a global trade war. US President Trump has not specifically targeted Australia with any tariffs but China is Australia's number one trading partner and a US-China trade war would inflict damage on Australia's economy. The new US tariffs are expected to be announced later today and take effect on Thursday. The financial markets remain volatile as investors look for some clarity from Washington about the tariffs, as it remains unclear which countries will be targeted and the extent of the tariff rates.
by OANDA
Why the RBA should cut rates todayThe Reserve Bank of Australia should cut rates today, argues James Glynn in the Wall Street Journal . Markets, however, expect the central bank to wait until May for its next move. RBA Governor Michele Bullock remains cautious, citing lingering inflation. But Glynn contends that global uncertainty now outweighs the RBA’s desire to wait for marginal improvements in inflation data. That uncertainty is set to escalate this Wednesday, with the Trump administration announcing sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners—likely triggering retaliatory measures. Andrew Boak, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Australia, appears to support Glynn’s view: “There are costs to waiting until May to cut. Waiting is not always a virtue.” Is Glynn simply chasing a contrarian headline or is there actually a possibility the RBA could act today?
by BlackBull_Markets
Australian dollar awaiting inflation dataThe Australian dollar is steady after two straight losing trading days.  In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6343, down 0.09% on the day. Australia releases the consumer price index for January on Wednesday. Inflation has been moving higher, as CPI accelerated in December to 2.5% y/y, up from 2.3% and its highest level since August.  The market estimate for January stands at 2.6%. Inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia's target band of 2%-3% but the central bank remains concerned about upside risks to inflation.  The RBA finally lowered rates last week after maintaining rates for over a year and joined most of the major central banks which are in the midst of an easing cycle.  The RBA delivered a "hawkish cut" as the central bank stated it "remains cautious" on the possibility of further cuts and the markets aren't expecting a rate cut before May. The latest headache for RBA policymakers is the Trump administration which has hit China with tariffs and threatened to apply tariffs to other trading partners.  This could lead to another trade war with China which would likely raise inflation and hurt China's economy.  China is Australia's largest trading partner and a slowdown in China would hurt Australia's key export sector. The US releases the Conference Board consumer confidence index later today. The market estimate stands at 102.5 for January, down from 104.1 in December. The US consumer is spending, as retail sales for December rose 0.4% m/m and 5.5% annualized from November. The labor market is strong, wages are outpacing inflation and the economy is humming. This rosy picture means that the Federal Reserve isn't under pressure to lower rates and the markets aren't expecting another rate cut before June. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6331 earlier.  Below, there is support at 0.6314 0.6362 and 0.6379 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Australian Dollar holds up after RBA rate cut | FX ResearchEarlier today, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25 basis points as widely expected. The accompanying communication leaned to the hawkish side with respect to the outlook on future rate cuts, which kept the Australian dollar propped up. As for Fed rate expectations, the market is currently pricing in 40 basis points of cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, risk sentiment has been improving in recent days due to an alleviation of stress around tariffs and a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Key standouts on Tuesday's calendar include UK employment data, a speech from BOE Governor Bailey, German and Eurozone ZEW sentiment, Canada inflation data, New York Empire manufacturing, NAHB housing, and Fed speak. That's all for now. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
Massive week for Aussie and Kiwi markets The Reserve Bank of Australia’s first meeting of the year is days away with money markets pricing in an 86% chance of a 25bps cut and a 14% chance that rates unchanged. However, Australia Finacial Review’s John Kehoe suggests market expectations of a 90% probability for a cut may be overstated, arguing the decision is closer to a 50/50 call. If the RBA cuts rates on Tuesday, it could support the government's message that cost-of-living pressures are easing and could lead to an early election announcement. If rates remain unchanged, the prime minister may delay the election until mid-April or May, hoping for a cut at the RBA’s next meeting on April 1. Meanwhile, the RBNZ is expected to cut rates this week, with markets pricing a 68% chance of a 50bps cut and a 32% chance of a 25bps reduction. A Reuters poll of 33 economists found 32 expecting a 50bps cut. However, ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley anticipates smaller 25bps cuts in April and May instead.
by BlackBull_Markets
Watch NZDUSD and AUDUSD because of RBNZ & RBA next weekThe RBA and the RBNZ are expected to deliver rate decisions next week, so there might be an slight opportunity for the bulls to capture a move higher, before those Banks deliver. Also, the current weakness in DXY could give a small helping hand for the bulls. That said, the positivity might be short-lived, as both Banks are expected to announce cuts, with the RBNZ potentially going for the bigger 50 bps cut. Let's see what happens. MARKETSCOM:AUDUSD MARKETSCOM:NZDUSD FX_IDC:AUDUSD FX_IDC:NZDUSD 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
Will AUDUSD limitedly recover amid mixed views?Macro: - The aussie-dollar is rebounding after the bearish sentiment over Trump’s tariffs has pressured the currency. - Expectations are rising that the RBA will cut interest rates this month due to easing inflation and weaker growth prospects. - This theme may impair currency recovery if there are any further corrections. Technical: - AUDUSD is recovering from its swing low around the support at 0.6150. The price forms a potential double-bottom pattern, which may set an upward bias to the currency in the short term. - If AUDUSD stays above its support at 0.6250, the price may continue to advance to retest at 0.6400, which confluences with the 38.2% level of the Fibonacci Retracement. - On the contrary, closing below the support at 0.6250, confluence with EMA21 may prompt a retest of the previous swing low of around 0.6140. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
Australian dollar drifting after mixed confidence dataThe Australian dollar is showing little movement on Tuesday.  In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6279, up 0.05% on the day. Australian confidence indicators were mixed on Tuesday.  The Westpac consumer sentiment index climbed 0.1% in February to 92.2 points, which means a majority of the surveyed consumers were pessimistic about econmic conditions.  The reading bounced back from a 0.7% decline in January but was shy of the forecast of 0.4%.  Consumer confidence remains weak as consumers have been squeezed by high inflation and elevated interest rates.  The survey noted that consumers have become more confident that the central bank will lower rates. The National Australia Bank's (NAB) business confidence index, which rose 6 points in January to +4. However, business conditions index dropped to +3 from +6 a month earlier, as profitability and employment weakened.  The NAB survey noted that retail spending has improved and this trend would need to continue if business conditions were to improve. The mixed confidence numbers come just one week before a crucial Reserve Bank of Australia meeting.  A rate cut is virtually certain at the meeting, which would mark the RBA's first rate cut since Nov. 2020.  The RBA is yet to join the easing cycle which other major central banks have implemented as inflation has fallen. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to continue to maintain interest rates at the March meeting.  The US economy remains robust and the labor market has slowed gradually, which means there isn't much pressure on Fed policy makers to lower rates in the coming months.  Barring unexpected economic news, the Fed is expected to cut rates no more than one or two times in 2025. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6267 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6245 There is resistance at 0.6299 and 0.6321
by OANDA
Australian dollar extends losses on soft Aussie CPIThe Australian dollar is down for a third straight trading day and has declined 1.3% this week. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6228, down 0.37% on the day.  Australia's annual inflation rate dropped to 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 2.8% in Q3. This was below the market estimate of 2.5% and was the lowest reading since Q1 2023. Electricity prices were sharply lower due to an energy bill rebate and services inflation dropped to 4.3% from 4.6%, its lowest level in three quarters. On a quarterly basis, CPI remained unchanged at 0.2% in Q4, below the market estimate of 0.3%. The Reserved Bank of Australia's trimmed mean CPI, a key indicator of underlying inflation, slowed to 0.5% q/q in Q4, lower than 0.8% in Q3 and below the market estimate of 0.6%. Annually, trimmed mean CPI fell to 3.2%, compared to a revised 3.6% in Q3 and below the market estimate of 3.3%. The soft inflation report has raised expectations that the RBA will lower rates at the Feb. 18 meeting, with the market pricing in a quarter-point cut at 80%. That would bring the cash rate to 4.10%, its lowest since Oct. 2023. Today's inflation report has added significance as it is the final tier-1 event prior to next month's rate meeting. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's rate announcement later today, although it would be a massive surprise if the Fed did not maintain the current benchmark interest rate of 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed has cut rate three consecutive times, including a jumb0 half-point chop in September 2024, but the resilient US economy has stalled plans to aggressively lower rates further and currently the Fed is projected to cut rates only once or twice in 2025. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6228. Below, there is support at 0.6204 0.6262 and 0.6286 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUD/USD slides on soft Chinese dataThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6276, down 0.59%. The Australian dollar is coming off its best weekly performance since Nov. 2023, gaining 2% against the US dollar. China's services and  manufacturing sectors both decelerated in January and missed expectations. The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2, down from 52.2 in December and shy of the forecast of 51.8. With the exception of November, service activity has been stagnant, with readings barely above the 50 level, which separates expansion from contraction. Domestic demand weakened and the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's trade policies have dampened foreign sales. The manufacturing sector is struggling and contracted in January, easing to 49.1. compared to 50.1 in December and missing the market estimate of 50.1. This was the first contraction since September 2024 and the sharpest decline in five months. Manufacturing output and foreign orders weakened in January and the weak global economy could mean further headwinds in 2025 for the manufacturing sector. China's government has implemented stimulus measures in order to boost the economy and GDP hit 5% in 2024. Still, deflation has persisted and consumer spending remains weak. The government will have to inject further stimulus in order to boost domestic consumption, a key engine of economic growth. Australia releases the National Australia Bank business confidence index early on Tuesday. The index fell sharply to -3 in November, down sharply from 5 in October. The markets are expecting a rebound for December, with a forecast of 3 points. Investors are also keeping an eye on the third-quarter inflation report, which will be released on Wednesday. CPI is expected to ease to 2.5% from 2.8%. This is the final tier-1 event prior to the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate meeting on Feb. 18. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6284. Below, there is support at 0.6256 0.6308 and 0.6336 are the next resistance line
by OANDA
Aussie rises after US core CPI declines to 3.2%The Australian dollar is higher for a third consecutive trading day. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6233, up 0.63% at the time of writing. The US inflation report for December was a mixed bag, as headline CPI rose while the core rate declined. Headline CPI rose to 2.9% y/y from 2.7% in November, matching the market estimate. Monthly, headline CPI rose to 0.4%, up from 0.3% and above the market estimate of 0.3%. The more important story was the decline in core CPI, which excludes food and energy and is more closely watched by the Federal Reserve than the headline data. Core CPI eased to 3.2% y/y in December, down from 3.3% over the past three months and below the market estimate of 3.3%.  Monthly, core CPI ticked lower to 0.2% in December, down from 0.3% a month earlier and in line with the market estimate. The decline in core CPI was small but still significant, as the core rate showed downward movement after remaining unchanged for three months. Investors responded by raising the probability of a quarter-point cut in March at 29%, up from 19% prior to the inflation release, according to CME's FedWatch. The Fed meets at the end of the month and is virtually certain to hold rates. Australia releases the December employment report early on Thursday. Australia's labor market remains solid, although the economy as a whole is struggling. Job growth increased by a strong 35.6 thousand in November, beating expectations. Will the positive trend continue? The market estimate for December stands at 15 thousand, which would mark a nine-month low. The unemployment rate has been low and fell to an eight-month low in November at 3.9%. It is expected to creep up to 4.0% in December. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Feb. 18 and the strength of the labor market is a key consideration in the central bank's decision-making. As long as the labor market remains solid and does not deteriorate quickly, the RBA can afford to hold off on a rate cut. If, however, the employment report is softer than expected, it would put pressure on the RBA to lower rates at next month's meeting. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6231. Above, there is resistance at 0.6255 0.6189 and 0.6171 are providing support
by OANDA
AUDUSD - stronger dollar, what consequences will it have for us?The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the support range, we can see the bottom of the downward channel and buy in that range with a suitable risk reward. If the downward momentum decreases, we will look for buy positions on the support range. According to the official data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday, Australia’s retail sales index increased by 0.8% in November compared to the previous month. In October, the index had grown by 0.5% after being revised down from an initial 0.6%. However, this growth fell short of market expectations, which had predicted a 1.0% rise. Additionally, newly released foreign trade data from the ABS on Thursday showed that Australia’s trade surplus reached AUD 7,079 million in November, surpassing the market forecast of AUD 5,750 million and the previous month’s revised figure of AUD 5,670 million (adjusted from AUD 5,953 million). Details of the report indicate that Australian exports rose by 4.8% month-over-month in November, compared to a revised 3.5% in October. Meanwhile, imports grew by 1.7% in November, compared to a flat 0% growth in October (adjusted from 0.1%)Meanwhile, JPMorgan reported that the US dollar has maintained its value contrary to expectations and may continue to do so. However, the bank’s analysts believe further appreciation of the dollar is limited. Key Factors Influencing the US Dollar • Global Growth Divergence and Central Bank Policies: Disparities in global economic growth have led to significant differences in monetary policies. Additionally, the yield gap between US 10-year bonds and those of key trading partners has reached its highest level since 1994. • Sustained Strength of the US Dollar: Despite two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, the US dollar appreciated by 7%. The real effective exchange rate (REER) also remains near its historical peak. • Reasons Behind Dollar Strength: 1. Economic Growth Disparity: The US economy grew by 2.7% in 2024, compared to 1.7% growth in other developed markets. 2. Monetary Policy Differences: The limited rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (44 basis points projected for 2025) compared to larger cuts by the European Central Bank (110 basis points) and rate hikes by Japan (47 basis points) have sustained the yield gap. 3. Policy Shifts: New government policies, such as domestic production support, tariffs, and deregulation, could bolster economic growth and strengthen the dollar. • Long-term Constraints on Dollar Strength: 1. The US dollar is historically overvalued (two standard deviations above the 50-year average), indicating limited room for further appreciation. 2. Structural issues, such as the US trade deficit (4.2% of GDP as of September 2024), could eventually pressure the dollar downward. • Impacts of Dollar Strength: 1. Challenges for US-Based Investors: A strong dollar could reduce the performance of international companies and increase export costs. 2. Negative Effects on US Companies with Extensive International Operations: These businesses might suffer due to the dollar’s strength. Assessing risks related to the dollar’s strength is essential for investors. While the dollar may continue to rise in the short term, structural factors and historical trends suggest significant downward pressure in the long term.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Australian dollar falls as core CPI dips lowerThe Australian dollar is lower for a second straight trading day. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6214, down 0.27% at the time of writing. The Australian dollar dropped as low as 0.60% but has pared much of those losses. Australia's inflation report was a mixed bag in November. Headline inflation rose 2.3% y/y, up from 2.1% in the previous two months and above the market estimate of 2.2%. This marked the highest level since August and was partially driven by a lower electricity rebate for most households. At the same time, the trimmed mean inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia's preferred core inflation gauge, fell from 3.5% to 3.2% in November. This reading is close to the upper limit of the RBA's target band of 2%-3% and supports the case for the RBA to join the other major central banks in lowering rates. The RBA has maintained the cash rate at 4.35% at nine consecutive meetings but is this prolonged pause about to end? In the aftermath of today's inflation report, the money markets have priced in a quarter-point hike in February at over 70%. Australia releases the quarterly inflation report for the fourth quarter on Jan. 29 and if inflation is lower than expected, expectations of a rate cut will likely increase. The US economy has been solid and this week's services and employment indicators headed higher. The ISM Services PMI rose to 54.1 in December, up from 52.1 and above the market estimate of 53.3. JOLT Job Openings jumped to 8.09 million in November and 7.8 million in October. The market is looking ahead to Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which is expected to drop to 154 thousand, compared to 227 thousand in November. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6214 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6182 0.6250 and 0.6282 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Will the better-than-expected employment data revert AUD's trend+ Macro theme: The RBA kept rates at 4.35%, sounding more optimistic about inflation and hinting at future cuts. But Thu's job numbers might spoil those plans—Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.9%, showing a surprisingly strong labor market. This hot jobs data could push back those early 2025 rate-cut forecasts many have been making. + Technical theme: - AUDUSD found support and bounced above 0.6365. The price is within the descending channel and below both EMAs, indicating a bearish momentum persists. - If AUDUSD extends its decline below 0.6365, the price may retest the subsequent support at 0.6300, confluence with the 100% level of Fibonacci Extension. - On the contrary, if AUDUSD surges above 0.6474, breaking its descending channel and EMA21, the price may retest the following resistance around 0.6560. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
by DatTong
AUD/USD soars as China's inflation dipsThe Australian dollar continues to takes traders on a roller-coaster. AUD/USD has surged 0.85% on Monday, recovering most of the 1% decline on Friday. In the European session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6443 at the time of writing. The week ended with a rebound from US nonfarm payrolls. In November, nonfarm payrolls climbed by 227 thousand, above the market estimate of 200 thousand. This followed a very weak October report, which was revised upwards to 36 thousand from 12 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% as expected, up from 4.1% in October. The employment data has raised expectations of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 18 meeting, with the odds currently at 87%, up sharply from 62% a week ago. The Australian dollar took a tumble after the strong nonfarm payroll numbers, but has quickly recovered after China's inflation was lower than expected. In November, CPI eased to 0.2% y/y, down from 0.3% in October and short of the market estimate of 0.5%. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.6%, down from -0.3% in October and lower than the market estimate of -0.6%. The weak Chinese inflation data has raised expectations that China's central bank will respond by lowering interest rates. That would help boost the economy and increase demand for Australian exports and  the Australian dollar has responded with sharp gains today. The Reserve Bank of Australia  meets on Dec. 10 and is widely expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35%, where it has been for over a year. The markets aren’t expecting a rate cut before May 2025, although a surprise decline in inflation in the coming months could push the central bank to lower rates in Q1 2025. AUD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.6407 and is testing resistance at 0.6492. Above, there is resistance at 0.6492 0.6356 and 0.6322 are the next support lines
by OANDA
1
Aussie tumbles to 4-month low after soft GDPThe Australian dollar has taken a tumble on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6416, down 1.1% on the day at the time of writing. Earlier, the Australian dollar dropped as low as 0.6407, its lowest level since August 5. Australia’s GDP report was a disappointment, falling short of expectations. GDP rose 0.3% q/q in the third quarter, following three straight quarters of 0.2% growth. This missed the market estimate of 0.5%. Annually, GDP rose 0.8%, below the  Q2 gain of 1% and shy of the market estimate of 1.1%. A key reason why GDP growth has been weak is soft household consumption. Consumers have been battered by high interest  rates and stubborn inflation, and private domestic demand was negligible in the second and third quarters. The soft GDP report was a bust with the markets and sent the Australian dollar tumbling lower. The report is unlikely to cause any changes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has been in a prolonged “higher for longer” stance. The RBA has managed to bring headline inflation within the target of 2%-3%, but remains concerned about underlying inflation, which rose to 3.5% in October. The RBA makes its next rate announcement on Dec. 10 and is widely expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35%, where it has been for over a year. The markets aren’t expecting a rate cut before May 2025, although a surprise decline in inflation in the coming months could push the central bank to lower rates in Q1 2025. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6447. Below, there is support at 0.6382 0.6563 and 0.6613 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
1
Australian dollar eyes GDPThe Australian dollar is drifting on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6461, down 0.20% on the day at the time of writing. Australia’s economy is expected to improve in the third quarter, with a market estimate of 0.4% q/q. This follows a disappointing gain of 0.2% in Q2, the weakest growth in five quarters, as household spending declined. On a  yearly basis, GDP is expected to tick up to 1.1% compared to 1% in the second quarter. The Australian economy continues to groan under the weight of high interest rates, which the Reserve Bank of Australia implemented in order to tame high inflation. Now that inflation has come down, there is pressure on the RBA to respond with lower rates. The RBA has become an outlier as most major central banks are in the middle of an easing cycle while the RBA has held rates for over a year. RBA Governor Bullock has remained hawkish, reiterating that underlying inflation is too high for the RBA’s liking and that a rate hike is not off the table. Headline inflation has fallen to 2.1%, well within the RBA’s target bank of 2%-3%, but the RBA remains concerned about underlying inflation, which  accelerated in October to 3.5%, up from 3.2% a month earlier. The market isn’t buying the warning of higher rates and expects the next rate move to be a cut sometime in mid-2025. That means that consumers will have to grapple with high rates for months, barring an unexpected fall in underlying inflation. In the US, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that he is leaning toward a cut in December but could change his mind if inflation surprised on the upside. The US releases November CPI one week prior to the rate announcement and the release will be a key factor as to whether the Fed cuts or maintains interest rates. AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6478 earlier. Next, there is resistance at 0.6514 0.6441 and 0.6405 are the next support levels
by OANDA