GBPAUD: Australia will continue its economic growth?!The GBPAUD is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of upward correction, we can see the supply zone and sell within that zone with appropriate risk reward.
The breaking of the upward trend line will pave the way for this currency pair to fall to the demand zone. In this demand zone we can open GBPAUD buy positions.
The Fitch rating agency has reaffirmed Australia’s AAA credit rating with a stable outlook, even as it highlighted the country’s higher debt levels compared to similarly rated peers. Fitch stated that Australia remains committed to fiscal sustainability rules, which have contributed to nearly 30 years of economic expansion before the pandemic.
Jim Chalmers, Australia’s Treasurer, warned that a potential victory for Donald Trump in the U.S. elections could create short-term economic pressures for Australia, manifesting as lower production and increased inflationary pressures. Chalmers also mentioned that Australia is prepared to face potential challenges from a Trump administration.
Chalmers, revealing Treasury’s modeling results that took a Trump victory into account, indicated that there could be a slight decrease in output and additional price pressures. However, the characteristics of Australia’s economy provide it a relative advantage compared to other countries.
Meanwhile, Barclays has revised its forecast and now expects the Bank of England (BOE) to keep the bank rate unchanged in December. This change is due to BOE’s more cautious tone and its emphasis on uncertainty and gradual policy moves. Barclays also anticipates that the BOE will reduce interest rates in several 25-basis-point increments over the next year, ultimately bringing the terminal rate to 3.50%.
Bloomberg reported that Rachel Reeves, the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, is facing serious challenges just 10 days after presenting her first budget. Rising borrowing costs and weaker economic growth have strained her £9.9 billion fiscal space set aside for her “stability” rule, which mandates that day-to-day expenses should be covered by taxes by 2029-30. Reeves now risks falling short of the Labour Party’s election promise to hold only one fiscal event per year and may need to secure additional funding before the 2025 budget.
