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ridethepig | AUDNZD Market Commentary 2019.11.29Here we are tracking further downside in the cross as NZD strength continues across the board before AUD takes the wheel in 2020. Among the commodity currencies, NZD stands out the most into year-end and those following the macro updates in Telegram and charts will know I have also been sitting long NZDCAD, with a dovish BoC and RBNZ 'hawkish' surprise there continues to be further upside: For AUDNZD flows, for the most part of 2019 the market has been heavily short NZD, and the NZD short cleansing pullback is likely to continue if regional growth and trade improves. Watching risk sentiment closely, with AUDJPY and NZDJPY coming to life intraday and with the power to drive the commodity currencies on other crosses. On the AUD side, RBA crystal clear about conditions needed for further easing and unlikely in the near-term. On the NZD side, RBNZ slightly hawkish surprise in the last meeting and see a lot of NZD shorts left that that need unwinding. With that in mind I see both AUD and NZD as bullish vs USD: As previously mentioned, confidence for those betting on the topside has increased dramatically after cracking 1.0620, watch closely for follow-throughs here into 2020 after the NZD outperformance theme fades away. Best of luck those already in positions and those looking to build swing positions into 2020. ...Please remember to keep the support coming with likes and comments!
by ridethepig
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2019.11.21A superb few months for AUD and with the Giant Panda sitting on the bid it remains my most optimistic currency in the G10 space. I am noticing impressive sizes coming in again with markets pricing the Australian recovery theme, largely driven by commodity prices which will help Chinese growth and the export outlook for AUD. Those following in the Telegram will know I have been long AUD since we changed outlooks in June: For the macro charts lets kick off firstly with AUD: The Morrison housing campaign single handedly held consumption growth, probably the most memorable policy in his premiership. AUD recovery will continue into 2020 with fiscal and monetary aligned, the RBA shift away from easing after February means we can comfortably lean on this cross for the coming months and quarters. Short-term flows remain the same: NZD also outperforming vs USD, I have posted my 2020 Macro Map here: Lastly on the USD side, for the long-term chart the infamous "Dollar Focus" : For the more immediate term, I have recently posted a new DXY chart. Key takeaways come from the update in year-end target to a 96 handle: Here looking to continue trading the buy side in AUD, targeting 0.70 for Dec makes sense to me. Keep the likes and feedback coming if these strategy ideas are helping. Good luck!
Long
by ridethepig
2
Aussie Vs Loonie (AUD/CAD) Trade Strategy and PlanTraders sold the Aussie like no tomorrow when the minutes of RBA's meeting indicated members expected another rate cut in November. We are worried about Australia's major trading partners ' economic slowdown; contraction in housing construction activity; outlook for consumption; wage growth; inflation; and domestic growth. Ultimately, the latest papers point out that when they meet next, RBA leaders will slash their rates in February. Trade tensions in the U.S .- China pressured crude oil prices and lead it to fall lower further. Also, Russia isn't inclined to cut production more deeply at the December 5 OPEC meeting and that means the market is likely to remain oversupplied in early-2020 . Carolyn A. Wilkins (Speech): The market is focusing on the line that there is 'room to maneuver'. Don't think she's sending a signal here but any time there is the talk of cuts (and QE), that's the knee-jerk. USD/CAD touched a session high of 1.3264 from 1.3230 before the comments and AUDCAD had an effect too. Canada also did not publish outstanding posts. Canada’s manufacturing sales took a step back in September. CPI reports (Nov 20), Poloz Speaks (Nov 21) and Retail Sales (Nov 22) will clearly provide additional optimism or pessimism hint to traders for the loonie. Positive turn in global risk sentiment may also help traders to think to get out of safe havens and into risk currencies like the Loonie. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs (Nov 21) from Australia should be taken care of. We should take this information in mind throughout the week if we trade in this cross pair or any Aussie or Loonie being as base or variable (counter).
by Anatta0
3
Aussi Vs Yen (AUD/JPY) Mid Term Trade Strategy & PlanWord through the forex town was that, depending on how the first step of the agreement works out, the U.S. and China are planning to roll back certain tariffs in tranches. Risk capital, however, had their rallies cut short when it was also revealed that within the U.S. government this proposal faced strong internal opposition. The monetary policy statement issued at the Asian session of the RBA indicated that the central bank refused to further lower rates. Besides seeing some signs of growth emerging from a soft patch and labor market resilience, officials are also concerned that further easing could convey an excessively negative performance view.
by Anatta0
ORBEX: RBA Stays Put, Keeps Inflation Outlook Unchanged!In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk mainly about #RBA and why #Aussie in somewhat bid and I also touch #eurodollar. #AUDUSD, despite yesterday's slide and regardless of trade war narratives, was pushed higher earlier in the session on the back of RBA's hold. The pair was supported as the bank kept the inflation outlook unchanged and reiterated that the economy is indeed in a changing state. That, of course, gave hope to investors and the like. #EURUSD on the other hand, also weak yesterday on the back of a stronger dollar, remains under pressure as Euro Area PMIs remain far from expansion. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Pricing in Aussi/Greenback retracement!! Small swing setup.Expectations are for the RBA to hold on to any further rate cuts, for now, so the big action is likely to come only if there is a surprise rate cut from the current overnight interest rate of 0.75 percent. After the RBA event, AUD / USD may fall into a "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news" situation as an interest-rate holding might have been pre-priced. Negative geopolitical headlines (e.g. negativity of trade between the United States and China) may help this retracement to form which should be taken care throughout the weak. TP: 38.20% Fibo Retracement.
Short
by Anatta0
Bull Flag - Head & Shoulder Formation Hello Traders, We are currently watching this pair for a potential bull flag , and a break higher towards the shoulder line. Major resistance found at 1.6420. We will look to enter a sell position from the shoulder line with a long term target of 1.5900. The RBA will cut interest rates tomorrow therefore expect volatility on all AUD pairs. Short term we are expecting further upside, however long term we may see the pair break lower than the neck line of the head and shoulders pattern. Please let us know your thoughts on the set up, www.forexstoreau.com
by ForexStoreau
AUDUSD - Volatility Contracting Ahead of RBAThe AUD has seen a very tight range last week, across the board. Tomorrow we will get the RBA's decision and that will likely be the catalyst for a pickup in volatility. We believe the odds are for a dovish hold...which might disappoint the markets. Last week RBA Governor Lowe noted the difficult external environment, but he also repeated three times that the Australian economy was at a "gentle turning point", suggesting he was not going to rush into further easing after the June and July rate cuts. So despite some worse employment figures, it seems like a cut is by no means a done deal. Look to buy AUDUSD on a disappointment of the market's rate cut expectations.
by Sam_Eder
1
Navigating through the RBA Interest Rate Decision : AUDUSDThe market is pricing in for the RBA to cut their interest rate from 1.00% to 0.75%. Personally, I always stay on the sidelines during interest rate risk events. The reason is how unpredictable the market reaction going to be. I believe that institutions use risk events to get liquidity via stop hunts/ price manipulation hence the spike direction has no correlation (at most case) with the rate decision. "Interest Cut = bearish for the currency" is the basic thing being taught to every trader. Tho it has some degree of truth in it but it is not that easy, traders should put this in their head: Stop Hunters loves big news events. For example, on July 2nd, 2019. RBA decided to cut their rates and the intraday direction of that day after the interest rate decision was UP. The reaction news spike did go down tho. Whoever went short (via trading the news) probably got some pips (if they get filled at the price they wanted, which is very rare!) but high chance get stopped out because traders logic suggests AUDUSD should go down because "Interest Cut = bearish for the currency" So it is not that simple. Another example, on June 4th, 2019, RBA cut their rates and interestingly the reactionary spike was not down but up and then the price closed below the 12.30pm (Singapore time) candle open. The intraday trend later that day was up. "Interest Cut = bearish for the currency"? This is an example last May when the RBA decided to keep their interest rate. This time the reactionary candle moved exactly the traders logic of "Interest Cut = bearish for the currency". However, that's the only bullish move AUDUSD made that day, in fact AUDUSD went down days after that. All these reactionary candles are traces of stop hunts happening during big news event, and RBA cash rate decision is prone to this as well. I will not trade before and during the risk event, the soonest I would trade this is 30 minutes after the decision rate and/or after the RBA governor's speech (if there's any) Technically, I am still bearish AUDUSD. Whatever decision RBA makes on Tuesday, I believe its almost fully priced in. I am anticipating some random news spike on Tuesday however and if that spike tapping in the levels at the upside, then that would be awesome because I could short AUDUSD at a better price. That's probably the only way I would "trade" the news spike.
Short
by sufiansaid
Update AUDUSD This is referring to initial AUDUSD plan (below) RBA was less dovish than what the "market" expected. Technically, i was hoping the price would go up, which it did, and tap into chunks of buy orders. I am still bearish the Aussie in spite of that RBA statement. Even if his words had much more weight than just a spike reaction (in truth, it was an opportunity to load positions from the bank, the liquidity run), I THINK (an opinion, don't need your bark as if I am saying it like its fact) its priced in already. I could be wrong and I don't care. I will react what the chart is telling me. And the reaction would be a bearish signal at any point of the day, I will short AUDUSD since price have gone into the minimal point for me to short. (refer to the initial post) There is no risk event for Australia, HOWEVER, there is a rate decision from the RBNZ which could effect this pair via AUDNZD.
Short
by sufiansaid
AUDNZD - Extremely overbought - RBNZ in spotlightHello Traders, This week the RBNZ will decide if they will hold interest rates steady after they look a 50 basis point cut during their last meeting. This shocked the market as they had forecast only a 25 basis point cut previously, therefore the NZD took a larger loss. This week the RBNZ is expected to hold rates steady, on the other hand, the RBA is looking at an additional rate cut. This means we could see some strength going back into the NZD. The AUDNZD is also extremely overbought, as you can see this has provided a great opportunity to sell from previously. Keep in mind: If the RBNZ do cut interest rates rates, this trade will not work out. Any questions or comments please let us know, www.forexstoreau.com
Short
by ForexStoreau
Navigating the RBA Rate Cuts - Pricing In AUDUSD 23 SeptSentiment/fundamental rationale tells me to look for short signals only this week. It is reported that the market is starting to price in RBA rate cuts on Oct 1st (81% as of now so plenty of moves to be had) Technically it is very obvious, at least in an intraday context, AUDUSD have been trading lower and now in an intraday bearish trend. Since I am bearish on the AUDUSD, I am looking to "short the rallies". I have identified several liquidity spots, which I marked with green sniper crosshair, as a place I would place my short (if there were bearish signal). The targets potentially be the Boomerang level (purple line) or the 20-week AWR downside projection
Short
by sufiansaid
AUDUSD - Short - Post RBAAs expected the RBA held the AUD cash rate at 1% and AUDUSD has since risen as it failed to challenge 0.67 due to the RBA giving no indication of future rate cuts reducing the odds of a rate cut this year. However, we believe recent rise in the currency pair can be also attributed to the ISM manufacturing coming in weaker than expected and less concern surrounding the US and China trade war. Therefore we maintain our short view mainly on the back of Australian economic weakness which we would hold unless the currency pair rises above the 0.70 psychological level.
Short
by KQMarkets
Navigating The Market : Trading Plan #AUDNZDThere was liquidity run as anticipated yesterday. Price stayed around in that pool and barely got out to make a meaningful trigger for me to Long AUDNZD. As Tokyo opens, we saw price breaks through above Friday's low suggesting it could be time for price expansion after accumulation. Having said that though, there will be risk events in 7 minutes as of i'm writing now, Retail Numbers for Australia. Fantastic time for the institutions doing some stop hunts. I will be looking for a quick tap downside, another tap into the liquidity pool. 12.30pm (Singapore time) there will be Australia Cash Rate (another best time for tapping in those sell stops down below!), I am expecting they will hold their rate at 1.00% and whatever it is they plan next month have been fully priced in The actionable from this : Long AUDNZD when : Price close above the filter line OR Price makes another move to the downside (close below Monday Low) and wait for another bullish trigger (which would opt me to draw a new Filter line). I love the latter plan better.
Long
by sufiansaid
3
AUDUSD - Short - Slow Progress to breach 0.67AUDUSD has been making slow progress to breach 0.67 but we still see this happening in the short term potentially even after the AUDUSD rate decision tomorrow. Despite the odds of a rate cut from the current level of 1% being quite low dovish comments coming out of the RBA would put further downward pressure on the currency pair. However, AUDUSD has been supported somewhat by the easing of trades tensions between the US and China but key US data during this week could lead to significant price action.
Short
by KQMarkets
AUSSIE Has Bottomed! For Now Atleast. Might Aim For 0.69500 Have a look at the snapshot above for AUDUSD weekly TF. It shows the support and resistance levels represented by red horizontal lines. At the moment the price HIT 0.67000 level and is bouncing around near that level, suggesting a BOTTOM or The support has been respected (well at least for now). The main chart, shows AUDUSD on daily TF where as you can see the daily candles have started to form a range. If this range gets broken the price would aim for daily 50 EMA. Now for this to happen we need the daily candle to breakout and close above the range (note: 4hr candle would provide an early signal but there are high chances that it may be a fakeout!). After the breakout happens and gets confirmed we can opt to take this pair LONG and target the daily 50 EMA. However trading such a volatile pair on daily TF is risky as it would trigger the SL or TP quickly due to unexpected news in the current fundamental market. Therefore sticking to the weekly TF is the best option and safest based on the current market situation. For those of you who are eager to take this trade on daily TF to target the DAILY EMA, please exercise caution and do it at your own risk! Now getting back to the technical picture, we need to see the daily candle close convincingly above the daily 50 EMA so we can opt to take this pair LONG towards the 0.695000 level where the descending line of the channel is present plus the WEEKLY 50 EMA. Fundamentally, we have seen the escalation of the tradewar which has heavy effects on the AUSSIE. However we have also seen that a china is ready to start talks again with the U.S giving some hopes to the market. Due to this reason i feel the AUSSIE can target 0.69500 and then from thereafter the free fall would begin again. Shall there be any updates about the trade entry, i will provide them in a new post. this just represents my analysis and outlook of this pair.
Long
by FX618Analysis
AUDUSD Short - Post FEDOn our last AUDUSD analysis on the 23.07 we indicated that the AUDUSD position at the time at the key psychological level of 0.7 would be a short opportunity primarily due to market expectations of further RBA rate cuts. The currency pair has effectively dropped down 0.685 as a result of the unexpectedly hawkish FED which advised that there would be just a 25bps rate cut and gave no signal there will be further cuts in future. Therefore we maintain our short position and will look to take profit as the currency pair reaches 0.67.
Short
by KQMarkets
AUDUSD - Short - RBA Thursday!We are currently short AUDUSD and see the current level as an opportunity to increase the position with a view to the currency pair breaking the Fibonacci level at around 0.69. AUDUSD is at the key 0.70 psychological level and with no Chinese data to be released and with RBA governor speaking on Thursday we expect downward pressure on the currency pair even through the recent message coming out of the RBA has been "wait and see" regarding further rate cuts. This is largely because the market expects further rate cuts this year due to a slowdown in China, a domestic housing slump, weak consumption and high levels of household debt. This coupled with the odds and aggressiveness of US rate cuts dropping as well as an increase in US China tensions could see AUDUSD falling in the coming months.
Short
by KQMarkets
AUSSIE Likely To Slump Towards 0.6700 Level. A SHORT SWING TRADENow that The RBA has cut its interest and the economy not doing so well we could see this pair slump to 67 cents! Bare in mind that the 0.7000 level is a very crucial resistance at the moment and any upward momentum is unlikely to happen as the trade war persists putting pressure on the AUD. 0.67000 level is another crucial support that has been drawn from the monthly charts and in my view this where the price is headed next. so below are the trade details. shall there be any updates i will update them below TRADE ENTRY LEVEL: 0.69100 STOP LOSS: 0.71100 TAKE PROFIT: 0.67000 RR: 1:1 TRADE TYPE: SHORT CHEERS
Short
by FX618Analysis
1