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AUDUSD ShortOn our last AUDUSD analysis on the 19.06 we indicated that we were short on the back of Dovish comments by the RBA. However, since then the currency pair has risen back to above 0.70 mainly on the back of a Dovish FOMC despite yesterday's expected RBA rate cut by 0.25% to 1%. Nevertheless, we see this as a good time to start building a short position despite the RBA not suggesting any rate cuts this year in yesterday's meeting. Therefore, we have increased our short position just below the 0.702 Fibonacci resistance level due to the continued struggles of the Australian economy coupled with the uncertainty over US and China trade relations.
Short
by KQMarkets
1
AUD/USD POSSIBLE SHORT POSITIONFX:AUDUSD After a sharp gain, AUDUSD approached a key resistance zone (around 0.7020), established on the 26th of October 2018. Moreover, tomorrow (2nd July), there's going to be the RBA Interest Rate Decision of July, followed, as usual, by a statement from the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe. At its meeting of June, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent. This boosted stocks in Sydney and weakened the Australian dollar. Some analysist are warning that Australia’s nearly three-decade run of recession-free growth could finally arrive to an end. Those moves could accelerate if the RBA does in fact lower rates further to 1 per cent. Therefore, if this daily candle will close under 0.7, then the bearish engulfing pattern will be confirmed and I'll open a short position, with a stop loss of 0.705 and a take profit of 0.6835, a Risk/Reward (R) of 1:3. If price will successfully reach that level, based on the momentum given by candles, I could decide to lower my take profit at 0.67875, with an ultimate R of 1:4.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn3701608
2
AU: Holding Neutral ahead of RBA DecisionAU remained neutral ahead of RBA decision - closing below .6935 resistance -- A retrace to .69650 could be in the picture before cut talk; My view remains to short and should remain bearish under .70000 price point. AiG Manufacturing news out soon will help set the tone heading into the week... Support Levels: .68950, .68650, .68250 Resistance Levels: .69350, .69650, .70000 *Not Professional advice, just my viewpoint. Let me know what you think! -Krecioch
by Krecioch
Sell AUDUSDBearish Cypher The most important points before the rate decision and the interest rate statement tomorrow morning: The RBA abandoned its confirmation that the next step is to raise interest rates Many expectations suggest a rate cut this year The bank cut its economic growth forecast at its last meeting The Bank may prefer the negative outlook for the economy, such as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand The Australian economy grew by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2018 Weak spending rates during December and January Inflation at 1.8% Sell below 0.7100, Details on the chart
Short
by Assem_Mansour
AUDUSD: ABCD Pattern, RBA RateThe RBA will release its rate statement in less than an hour. The fresh new threat of the US-China trade war is very likely to be reflected in the statement which is most likely to be bad for its currency. The aussie has plunged since the market opened this week. While the price has retraced significantly, the gap has yet to be covered. Therefore, if the price decides to cover the gap before the aussie continues to fall, an ABCD pattern will be completed at 0.7020 during/after the rate statement. Should the gap be left opened, the price may attempt to break new low but unlikely to have a lasting effect.
Short
by AlgoVenture
AUD Technical analysis:AUD bearish bias strongest ahead of RBA Fundamental View: ================== RBA rates cut on May 7 for many reasons. So there is a good chance of trading. In May of 1016 RBA was cut, Then almost weak to 150/20 pips against almost all major pairs. 1.Inflation: RBA's annual inflation tag is below 2-3%, RBA does not hold the normal rate. The reason for this is to keep the * auds stable. * Keep the labor market right. * Ensure balanced income. Australia's current infusion is 1.4% where their togates are 2.5% because of which it is forced to cut rates. A break of 0.6980 triggers fresh selling towards early 2016 levels. However, the year 2016 bottom near 0.6820, followed by the January month’s flash crash low of 0.6730, can appear on the bears’ radar afterward 2. Markets are focused on Trump's renewed China trade threat and will likely keep AUD on the defensive. 3. AUD/USD risk reversals hit 3.5-month lows on Monday. 4. Investors likely buying puts in anticipation of RBA rate cut. Technical View: ============== There are major support at the current rate of 0.6980. If the breakout is 0.6980, then the Next Target 0.6900 and Final Target 0.6830. On the other hand, there are major registrations at the current rate of 0.7110 area. 0.7110 when the area breakout, next target More than 7160, I do not see any fan coming up next Friday. *** So Sell Position Is best about 0.7000 Area Target 0.6830 Area. Daily SMA100 0.7114 Daily SMA200 0.7170 Previous Weekly High 0.707 Previous Weekly Low 0.6984 Previous Monthly High 0.7206 Previous Monthly Low 0.6988 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.7010 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.700
Long
by Saleh11
2
AUD/USD short post payrolls pre RBA 7th MayOn our analysis on the 25.04 we identified a doji candle followed by an upward reversal but we saw this as profit taking on short positions and expected the currency pair to keep dropping. AUD/USD did effectively keep falling in particular due to the FOMC holding rates whilst being more optimistic about the economy than in the March's meeting minutes which should increase the probability of interest rate rises in the future. Payrolls beat expectations coming in at 263K vs 185K forecast with last month's revision adding another 16K but average hourly earnings came in at 3.2% vs 3.3% forecast leading to a positive reversal. However, we see AUDUSD continuing it's downtrend early next week due to the high expectations of a rate cut by the RBA to increase inflation and boost the housing market which is suffering a downturn. Therefore, we maintain our short position which we would look to add to if the currency pair moves towards the next key resistance level at around 0.7040.
Short
by KQMarkets
AUDUSD: Aussie could have bottomed here...I'm long, there's an explosive technical chart at play here, if it accelerates soon, a very sharp move will start from this juncture. Copper is also set up to move up explosively, and I see bullish patterns in multiple currency pairs like $CADUSD and $EURUSD (which we are already long from the lows). Commodities also exhibit bullish patterns, like $NGAS, $XAGUSD, $XAUUSD, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybeans, Ethanol and a few others...Maybe the dollar weakens from here onwards? Either way, it's a good opportunity to ride a potentially large trend with a relatively tight stop, below recent daily lows or weekly lows, or 1 ATR below -daily tf-. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3