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AUD/USD Weekly Outlook and IdeasPretty sizable gap away from the base of a triple bottom (yellow rectangle)...how to interpret this?? Someone or something with deep pockets is eyeing the .707 area, perhaps a barrier option slightly below at the .706 demand level? Either way let's map out the possibilities... If this gap closes down, I think it could spell trouble for buyers who bought heavily @ .707..how many more touches can this level take before capitulation? Now the .706 level is not a significant level @ this point, its well within the ATR range of the yellow rectangle. Meaning if we do close the gap, the possibility this drops further increases. If the current gap level holds and we see upside, the .714 area is the one to watch for resistance. Any move above that, and we may have an uptrend. RBA rate decision on Monday is going to be the key driver for direction this week, so hold on!
by en1gm9t-c
Remaining Nimble in AUDUSD and selling the closeThere are a few opportunities which we have discussed privately on AUD and why it is a good time to be getting long on AUD crosses (namely AUDCAD or AUDJPY). Here I am nervous over USD strength as we begin pricing in a Q3 hike there so with Gold moving down in an impulse move (see attached ideas for more colour on that topic) the short here seems reasonable. Well if we dig deeper on the RBA side, I strongly disagree with the doves that any cuts are around the corner. Lowe does not seem like a man who is desperate to move. The pause globally in central banks has helped equities but markets will test the limits again very soon. A test of the lows by default here seems only a matter of time, I expect a move like this in nature. Best of luck to those who are positioning for the sell-side next week for this 5th and final wave down to the lows.
Short
by ridethepig
EURAUD Likely To Test 1.55 level Amid Risk ON Appetite!With the potential Trade deal getting even closer among the worlds two largest economy and trump delaying the tariffs, The Australian Dollar may appreciate but NOT too much. In the analysis below i explained why the AUD is in for some benefit but DO NOT expect it rally should the trade deal be made! Same goes Fundamental analysis goes for the EURAUD however in this case shall the trade deal be made the EUR would likely be appreciating but not as compared to the AUD. this week kicks off with busy schedule today with FED chairman about to comment on the monetary policy and the impact the trade war is having on the economy. Have a read at the article below: Daily FX Market Roundup February 25, 2019 Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management. We are starting this busy trading week with solid gains in equities and currencies. Thanks to President Trump who officially delayed the next round of tariffs, all of the major currency pairs are trading higher led by gains in the Australian and New Zealand dollars. While the president hinted at this outcome last week, investors were relieved that his views did not change before an official announcement was made. Of course, the decision to extend the deadline was an easy one because it creates good will without a real commitment. Still, investors liked that it was open ended and that the truce will last until the summit between President Trump and President Xi next month. Assuming that both sides continue to make progress, Trump says they will be planning for a Summit at Mar-a-Lago to conclude an agreement. Speculation has now shifted from an extension to a conclusion of the trade war. Memorandums of understanding are being drafted in 6 key areas that include cyber theft, intellectual property, currency and non-tariff barriers. While there will be legs to this rally, it's important to understand that a final trade agreement could take many forms. The US could promise to keep tariffs where they are (with no further increases) and review them in a few months/years or they could abolish them completely. There’s also the possibility that a deal “might not happen at all” according to Trump but he’s motivated to get it done. Fed Chairman Powell is headed to Capitol Hill Tuesday to testify before Congress. His prepared comments on the economy and monetary policy will be released at 9:45AM NY/14:45 GMT and they should drive EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD higher. If the trade deal gives Powell a new sense of optimism, risk appetite will improve, lifting high-beta currencies. If he remain cautious, stresses the need for patience, talks about the downside risks to growth and the possibility of fewer rate hikes, the US dollar will fall, which should still be positive for EUR, AUD and NZD. USD/JPY on the other hand will rise on optimism and fall on pessimism. EUR/USD ended the day at its highest level in more than 2 weeks but it remains firmly within its recent range. A move above 1.1390 is needed for the upside breakout to be real. Sterling extended its gains above 1.31 versus the U.S. dollar after Prime Minister May delayed the “meaningful vote” to March 12, two weeks before they are scheduled to leave the European Union. This decision should have been negative for the currency but investors believe that by running down the clock, May leaves Parliament with no choice but to take over the Brexit process. She’ll have to request an extension of Article 50 or risk being shut out of negotiations. There’s talk that the European Commission could consider a 2-year delay and the Labour party is moving toward supporting a second referendum. Both choices are better than the current course, which is what investors are banking on. The Canadian dollar was the only major currency that failed to benefit from the risk rally and oil prices are to blame. Crude tumbled more than 3% after a tweet from President Trump that simply said “Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike – fragile!” While there was no specific threat, investors feared that the president, who hasn’t tweeted about oil since December, is returning to his criticism of the alliance. It is also a nudge to Saudi Arabia who previously raised output on the back of pressure from the Trump Administration *************************************************** END OF ARTICLE **************************************************************************************************** SOURCE: www.investing.com With FED chairman speaking this week, the USD is in for a shakeout which inturn would affect other currencies specifically speaking about AUD, JPY, NZD and EURO. On a technical perspective of this trade analysis, the price on the daily TF is forming a rough head and shoulders pattern and the neckline is just seem to be present above the weekly 50 EMA. Shall the neckline break it would also be favorable the price breaks the weekly 50 EMA in the process with convincing fashion. The next support based on the Monthly charts lies at the 1.55 crucial level where the price is expected to be headed! Based on all the fundamental analysis and technical ones shall the criteria meet i will likely wait for the neckline to break and retest before making any suitable entry. However we are also keeping an eye out for the AUDUSD pair as these two are kind of correlated which makes executing two trades a risky scenario. Whichever pair gives the best outcome i will possibly take either one of these AUD related pair trade! This just represents my analysis on this pair, shall there be a suitable trade criteria i will post them in a new thread. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
SINO-US TRADE DEAL COULD MAKE AUSSIE REACH 0.73000 LEVEL!With Tariffs delayed which were suppose to come into effect on 1st march and renewed optimism that a trade deal could be reached soon between the world two largest economy, Aussie could be in for a benefit! China usually imports many of its raw material from Australia and if a trade deal can be reached soon (which is a likely scenario) aussie dollar could make a jump towards the crucial 0.73000 level where weekly 50 EMA is present. As of right now the AUD has started the week on strong positive note gaining more than 0.64% of its value since Trump announced that the tariffs that were suppose to come into effect would be delayed and he also signaled that a trade deal would be achieved soon. If a deal is achieved, Chinese economy will slowly start to pick up pace again and thereby taking the AUD higher against the USD and other currencies. However do NOT be fooled thinking that this may make the AUD rally! The AUD faces a lot of resistance on its path to uptrend not only technically but fundamentally too. On a fundamental aspect even though a trade deal could be struck soon, other factors are not in the AUD favor such as the RBA cutting its forecast on the rates and a chinese region banning coal imports from Australia, even certain economic indicators are showing results below the forecast. Taking all this fundamental aspects into consideration, the AUD will likely not make a big move to the upside but a rather short one and after that it remains to be seen what will happen to this pair. Overall market sentiment are bearish on both AUD and NZD dollars! Now coming to the technical aspect on this pair, the daily chart shows a descending trendline being respected on numerous occasions, a sustained break above this trendline would mean the price will likely target the 0.73000 level where the weekly 50 EMA is present. So for now its best to wait for the price to break the trendline and retest certain levels before we can make our move! 0.70000 level is a crucial support if viewed on the monthly charts and since the flash crash happened that day numerous support levels were tested and rejected, projecting that the AUD buyers are present at those levels. For now if the trendline is broken then we will wait for it to break convincingly and retrace slightly so we can make a move. shall there be any updates i would provide them in a new thread. this post just represents My personal outlook on this current pair. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
1
RBNZ & RBABy Andria Pichidi - February 13, 2019 RBNZ held the official cash rate at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations. RBNZ reiterated its pledge to keep the rate at the current level through 2019 and 2020. "The direction of our next OCR move could be up or down", they repeated. The statement for keeping rates low, for longer than what has been stated so far, along with the statement that OCR could move either way, came in contrast with the highly dovish stance that markets anticipated. This explains Kiwi's spike, with NZDUSD jumping to 0.6851 from 0.6730 ahead of the announcement and during the conference session. RBNZ seems to be following a similar policy path to the RBA. Last week, RBA announced steady rates  at 1.50%, whilst its statement was consistent with no change in the current rate setting through 2019. Overall, the RBA maintained its view that inflation will eventually pick up, although it will take a bit longer than anticipated. Given the Fed's dovish shift, the risk was for the RBA to take a decidedly dovish turn, which Lowe and company did not. Despite the similarity between RBNZ and RBA, New Zealand continues to present an overall fair to middling economy with prospects of any kind of policy changes, as the labour market strengthens and inflation is nearly at the mid of the 1-3% target. This comes in contrast to the Australian economy, which looks erratic given sharp property price declines, despite the "strong" labour market. Furthermore, Aussie's future performance depends greatly on how the Chinese economy evolves, given the strong symbiotic link the Australian economy has with China's. Markets remain in a cautious state due to the current US-China trade talks, which presents binary risk for the Aussie given China's outsized demand for Australian exports. AUD has been trending lower over most of the last year, having declined about 12-13% over this period, largely as a consequence of the eruption of the US-China trade war. On the other hand, Kiwi's future performance is not highly linked to China since the NZ economy is not as exposed to a Chinese slowdown as Australia. Consequently, despite the common policy stance between New Zealand and Australia, all the above arguments suggest that NZD is likely to remain stable in comparison to AUD, something that could give AUDNZD a downleg until it gradually breaches a possible parity. Levels to be watched, starting from immediate to long term Support levels are : 1.0395, 1.0370, 1.0320, 1.0235. Resistances come at 1.055, 1.0667 and 1.0712. Come join us today at HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex
AUD/CHF reaching a confluence zoneI have to credit user BenWright21 with this idea: Currently, the daily time frame is in the midst of a H & S pattern and has seen nice follow through the .718 level. If price continues to climb, the .7325 zone is the level to watch for a pull back. Not only do we have a sizable gap zone from Dec 2nd, it also happens to coincide with a massive downward trend line (see weekly for more detail). The Ozzie had a strong showing this week thus far, but remains fundamentally weak. Yes, Chinese PMI and Australian CPI did beat consensus estimates, but the overall forecast remains uncertain at best for the currency. Feb 4th will surely provide volatility and direction with the release of the RBA's interest rate decision. Meanwhile, the CHF was slammed on the news front this week, hitting below expectations on the KOF indicator and ZEW survey reports. The Swissy is down broadly this week barring an end of the week push. In summary, I expect an AUD sell off next week all things remaining equal. The nearest supply/demand zone ranges are wide, so patience will be necessary. Wait for confirmation @ the .7325 zone to the downside and execute a sell. Assuming .7325 is your average price you can set stop losses @ or between the .737 - .74 levels depending on your tolerance. If everything goes correctly, you could be eyeing over a 300 pip move with a generous R:R.
Short
by en1gm9t-c
GOLD May Trigger Aussie Rally Towards 0.76000 level ! The above picture is the monthly charts of the AUDUSD pair showing the near by concrete support and resistance levels. The flash crash that happened few days ago has affected many FX pairs and as the evidence suggests the aussie has clearly rejected both 0.6700 and 0.7000 level in the process. As the support levels were rejected on the long term timeframe the evidence suggests that this pair might be ready to go up and target that monthly 50 EMA where the 0.76000 also is present too. For this pair to be taken LONG, have a look at the main chart first. there is a trendline that is broken and another trendline is developing too. The second developing trendline needs to be broken too together with the weekly 50 EMA which can confirm that this pair is headed upside. It might take a few weeks for this trade to develop before we can take it LONG. Once if the weekly 50 EMA is broken the price needs to slightly retrace so we can make our entry there by giving us a good risk to reward ratio. GOLD is expected to rise this year and shall there be any updates i will post them in the comment below or in a new thread.
Long
by FX618Analysis
AUDUSD (3 to 6 Months), Short followed by LongThis is based on the observation of the downward AUDUSD channel established from the beginning of this year. Apart from the technically lined lower lows and lower highs along well defined trendlines, a fundamental observation can be linked with the fact that we have observed cycles of: - Bullish Signs: Lower Unemployment rates, high GDP growth approaching 3% and especially an increasing trade surplus (3 Billion $ a month now, mostly due to booming LNG Exports). - Bearish Signs: Very dovish RBA keeping interest rates as low as they get and a kind of busting housing market in the east coast. For the following days expect the AUDUSD to trade momentarily higher from this level at (0.724 maybe up to 0.73 max), and pop out of the descending trendlines, but the first break will likely be a false one (or call it SL hunt) With the next RBA announcement mid next week, expect same cycle to repeat itself, dovish comments and AUDUSD will head down again to test key supports (TP1 0.695 or inversely USDAUD 1.44 key level) However, Australian resources industry is in full steam now, mining sector has recovered and major LNG projects are about to start producing (Gorgon, Wheatstone, Ichthys, Queenslands' Coal Seam LNG....), Australia will overtake Qatar as first LNG exporter globally and this will likely be reflected the AUDUSD rate. This will render RBA's dovish hammers non-meaningful and RBA will have little power remaining to curve AUDUSD down. One other key factor to consider, is that the major four banks are challenging the RBA (NAB, Commentwealth, Westpac, ANZ) with each going their own way and increasing mortgage rates, this may put pressure on RBA to follow free market science, and with the slightest mentioning of increasing interest rates sometime in the future the AUDUSD. A strong break of the downward channel is expected, the TP2 is estimated technically with previous trend lines , fiobonacci expansion and previous resistance level, in the range of 0.89 to 0.95. This is a personal interpretation for the trading community, trade at your own risk.
Long
by ahmedse
AUDUSD Targeting 61.8 Retracement. Another Drop in Sight!You can say that AUDUSD has been taking a beating not only from the USD but also the GOLD market and How the Chinese economy is performing due to the issues with the U.S. Odds are in favour of another drop in AUDUSD both technically and fundamentally . Sentimentally its also looking good to go short on this pair. Looking at the daily chart AUDUSD is looking to target the 61.8 retracement of the previous swing high before heading for an extra drop. Monthly Timeframe confirms that the price has closed below the crucial resistance level of 0.7600 now potentially acting as support. Another crucial support in sight on the monthly timeframe is the 0.69500 level. See the attached monthly image below: On the Weekly charts, A descending channel is in progress and test of upper trendline is in sight (61.8 retracement of previous swing). Price will likely target the crucial support of 0.69500. See the weekly chart image below: In short, the probability is high that the price will retrace before heading down for another drop. However If the price happens to reach the upper trendline of channel on the daily chart, a reversal or high test candle needs to happen so as we can place a trade. FUNDAMENTALLY: The AUDUSD has been taking a beating due to the dollar bullishness. Futhermore AUDUSD being a commodity currency linked strongly to GOLD, is also under performing due to decline in GOLD prices recently. Another strong factor that also limits the advance in AUDUSD is also linked to how the chinese economy performing at the moment, which is not very well. Fundamentally a short position is in our favour at the moment COMMITMENT OF TRADERS: Sentimentally large speculators have been dumping the Aussie for a while now. open interest in the market is decreasing too. Dumping AUD has eased up in the recent week suggesting a consolidation period might take place Overall its a good position to go SHORT on this Pair. I will wait for the price to test the upper channel before making any move on this pair. IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS PLEASE GIVE ME A LIKE AND FOLLOW ME FOR MORE FUTURE ANALYSIS. Please be advised that if a trade opportunity appears i will update below.
Short
by FX618Analysis
AUDUSD: If it climbs over resistance, monthly rally can resume..I started averaging into an $AUDUSD long here, first entry at 0.7537. I suspect we might have what it takes to break above the monthly mode once again, and given the potential bottom in the Euro, and how strong the Aussie has remained all along, as $EURUSD was plunging, it is in a good position to rally from. It acts as a sort of proxy for emerging markets and China overall, a growth proxy. Best of luck if going long, Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
AUDNZD: 2017 AU$ appreciated +600 pips Low to High before MarchFX:AUDNZD Someone called me 'dramatic' I just love it! Let's keep having fun while 'banking' a more dimmes (Ocean Thirteen). Sure, going back to the idea. 1)Last year, between January and April this cross appreciate 660-pips from the low in Jan. 1.0323 handle to the high in March 1.1017 handle. 2)What if it continues, after all, RBA seems to be eager to move soon to reduce households debt and tight a bit over there. Yes, you haven't heard, right? Well, It seems Real Estate went out of control in Sydney and now consumers are far too in debt (where have I seen this...?) 3)NZ$ as usual, vulnerable on the dairy front, milk not milking it. 4)A primitive analysis I know, but could 2018 be the 'Continuation Year' not too different from the $EURUSD or $GBPUSD long trades. 5)I should be playing this with a full standard lot, just for the records.
Long
by josericaurte.jaen