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AU: Holding Neutral ahead of RBA DecisionAU remained neutral ahead of RBA decision - closing below .6935 resistance -- A retrace to .69650 could be in the picture before cut talk; My view remains to short and should remain bearish under .70000 price point. AiG Manufacturing news out soon will help set the tone heading into the week... Support Levels: .68950, .68650, .68250 Resistance Levels: .69350, .69650, .70000 *Not Professional advice, just my viewpoint. Let me know what you think! -Krecioch
by Krecioch
Sell AUDUSDBearish Cypher The most important points before the rate decision and the interest rate statement tomorrow morning: The RBA abandoned its confirmation that the next step is to raise interest rates Many expectations suggest a rate cut this year The bank cut its economic growth forecast at its last meeting The Bank may prefer the negative outlook for the economy, such as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand The Australian economy grew by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2018 Weak spending rates during December and January Inflation at 1.8% Sell below 0.7100, Details on the chart
Short
by Assem_Mansour
AUDUSD: ABCD Pattern, RBA RateThe RBA will release its rate statement in less than an hour. The fresh new threat of the US-China trade war is very likely to be reflected in the statement which is most likely to be bad for its currency. The aussie has plunged since the market opened this week. While the price has retraced significantly, the gap has yet to be covered. Therefore, if the price decides to cover the gap before the aussie continues to fall, an ABCD pattern will be completed at 0.7020 during/after the rate statement. Should the gap be left opened, the price may attempt to break new low but unlikely to have a lasting effect.
Short
by AlgoVenture
AUD Technical analysis:AUD bearish bias strongest ahead of RBA Fundamental View: ================== RBA rates cut on May 7 for many reasons. So there is a good chance of trading. In May of 1016 RBA was cut, Then almost weak to 150/20 pips against almost all major pairs. 1.Inflation: RBA's annual inflation tag is below 2-3%, RBA does not hold the normal rate. The reason for this is to keep the * auds stable. * Keep the labor market right. * Ensure balanced income. Australia's current infusion is 1.4% where their togates are 2.5% because of which it is forced to cut rates. A break of 0.6980 triggers fresh selling towards early 2016 levels. However, the year 2016 bottom near 0.6820, followed by the January month’s flash crash low of 0.6730, can appear on the bears’ radar afterward 2. Markets are focused on Trump's renewed China trade threat and will likely keep AUD on the defensive. 3. AUD/USD risk reversals hit 3.5-month lows on Monday. 4. Investors likely buying puts in anticipation of RBA rate cut. Technical View: ============== There are major support at the current rate of 0.6980. If the breakout is 0.6980, then the Next Target 0.6900 and Final Target 0.6830. On the other hand, there are major registrations at the current rate of 0.7110 area. 0.7110 when the area breakout, next target More than 7160, I do not see any fan coming up next Friday. *** So Sell Position Is best about 0.7000 Area Target 0.6830 Area. Daily SMA100 0.7114 Daily SMA200 0.7170 Previous Weekly High 0.707 Previous Weekly Low 0.6984 Previous Monthly High 0.7206 Previous Monthly Low 0.6988 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.7010 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.700
Long
by Saleh11
2
AUD/USD short post payrolls pre RBA 7th MayOn our analysis on the 25.04 we identified a doji candle followed by an upward reversal but we saw this as profit taking on short positions and expected the currency pair to keep dropping. AUD/USD did effectively keep falling in particular due to the FOMC holding rates whilst being more optimistic about the economy than in the March's meeting minutes which should increase the probability of interest rate rises in the future. Payrolls beat expectations coming in at 263K vs 185K forecast with last month's revision adding another 16K but average hourly earnings came in at 3.2% vs 3.3% forecast leading to a positive reversal. However, we see AUDUSD continuing it's downtrend early next week due to the high expectations of a rate cut by the RBA to increase inflation and boost the housing market which is suffering a downturn. Therefore, we maintain our short position which we would look to add to if the currency pair moves towards the next key resistance level at around 0.7040.
Short
by KQMarkets
AUDUSD: Aussie could have bottomed here...I'm long, there's an explosive technical chart at play here, if it accelerates soon, a very sharp move will start from this juncture. Copper is also set up to move up explosively, and I see bullish patterns in multiple currency pairs like $CADUSD and $EURUSD (which we are already long from the lows). Commodities also exhibit bullish patterns, like $NGAS, $XAGUSD, $XAUUSD, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybeans, Ethanol and a few others...Maybe the dollar weakens from here onwards? Either way, it's a good opportunity to ride a potentially large trend with a relatively tight stop, below recent daily lows or weekly lows, or 1 ATR below -daily tf-. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
Exceptional speculation from mid April '18 onwardsUsing an updated chart of earlier posted opportunity around AUDUSD (AU) I like to highlight and illustrate the exceptional speculation that has been going on since mid April onwards. The first and many incidence of the same speculation has often seen coming in very sudden which indicates a single source instead of graduate forming of buying/selling pressure you see normally when larger long term trends are forming. Only news events cause such sudden incoming interest in the buying or selling of an asset when it's coming from a group, but then there have to be a profound reason for it been in the news and it always dies out within a few hours. Quite often we have seen USD buying surges since mid April not complying with any of these rules on top of that these volumes were sometimes hidden from public pools and planned very timely to exactly block a USD bearish cycle from bringing down the value of USD or a potential opposite interest such as London open. The latter is just too silly to observe, suddenly on Tuesday morning Asia timezone when there are normally low volumes until one hour before London open, there would be a ridiculous sudden surge of GU and EU selling at a time it was never seen before. There is simply also no reasonable explanation for anybody selling GU and EU at that time other to stopping GBP and EUR from being appreciated. Nobody says a word and nobody writes about it since that I have noticed these out of place events. There are some economists speaking in youtube videos but searching for manipulation of USD returns litle results on Google and first few entries are about China manipulating their currency and Google's very nice suggestion list doesn't show a single entry when typing it out into the search field. Well, everybody knows that every single central bank is doing it, all of them. They call it market operations and it published on their websites. Look at the implementation notes published by the FED May this year or read on about RBA market operations published clear in public, just to name two examples but all central banks list it as normal operational tasks as part of their portfolio of services. Yet search seems to return limited results, making everyone believe very few people are interested in this business. Something so important as a ring-network of almighty controllers manipulating the financial market on a daily basis and nobody would be interested. That doesn't glue very well with me, censored it is, big time, for only one reason, this network of market operators have a lot to hide. More than they trying to let the everyone believe with their website publications. The dangers are that like this year the speculators are all making to believe the sudden interest is genuine, just to grow a large group of supporters because the FED know it can't beat macroeconomic cycles. At one the these will overpower the built up speculative forces against the macros over 6 months and that contr force will be stronger than ever seen on the market and speculators will realise that at one point in time and start selling on top of the macro selling pressure. That combined could give us the strongest ever seen sling back down from high up reaching far below it normally would go, the so called overshoot could reach the opposite side of the market at USDJPY 67...
Education
by Deep-Peat-Shark
AUD/USD Weekly Outlook and IdeasPretty sizable gap away from the base of a triple bottom (yellow rectangle)...how to interpret this?? Someone or something with deep pockets is eyeing the .707 area, perhaps a barrier option slightly below at the .706 demand level? Either way let's map out the possibilities... If this gap closes down, I think it could spell trouble for buyers who bought heavily @ .707..how many more touches can this level take before capitulation? Now the .706 level is not a significant level @ this point, its well within the ATR range of the yellow rectangle. Meaning if we do close the gap, the possibility this drops further increases. If the current gap level holds and we see upside, the .714 area is the one to watch for resistance. Any move above that, and we may have an uptrend. RBA rate decision on Monday is going to be the key driver for direction this week, so hold on!
by en1gm9t-c
Remaining Nimble in AUDUSD and selling the closeThere are a few opportunities which we have discussed privately on AUD and why it is a good time to be getting long on AUD crosses (namely AUDCAD or AUDJPY). Here I am nervous over USD strength as we begin pricing in a Q3 hike there so with Gold moving down in an impulse move (see attached ideas for more colour on that topic) the short here seems reasonable. Well if we dig deeper on the RBA side, I strongly disagree with the doves that any cuts are around the corner. Lowe does not seem like a man who is desperate to move. The pause globally in central banks has helped equities but markets will test the limits again very soon. A test of the lows by default here seems only a matter of time, I expect a move like this in nature. Best of luck to those who are positioning for the sell-side next week for this 5th and final wave down to the lows.
Short
by ridethepig
EURAUD Likely To Test 1.55 level Amid Risk ON Appetite!With the potential Trade deal getting even closer among the worlds two largest economy and trump delaying the tariffs, The Australian Dollar may appreciate but NOT too much. In the analysis below i explained why the AUD is in for some benefit but DO NOT expect it rally should the trade deal be made! Same goes Fundamental analysis goes for the EURAUD however in this case shall the trade deal be made the EUR would likely be appreciating but not as compared to the AUD. this week kicks off with busy schedule today with FED chairman about to comment on the monetary policy and the impact the trade war is having on the economy. Have a read at the article below: Daily FX Market Roundup February 25, 2019 Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management. We are starting this busy trading week with solid gains in equities and currencies. Thanks to President Trump who officially delayed the next round of tariffs, all of the major currency pairs are trading higher led by gains in the Australian and New Zealand dollars. While the president hinted at this outcome last week, investors were relieved that his views did not change before an official announcement was made. Of course, the decision to extend the deadline was an easy one because it creates good will without a real commitment. Still, investors liked that it was open ended and that the truce will last until the summit between President Trump and President Xi next month. Assuming that both sides continue to make progress, Trump says they will be planning for a Summit at Mar-a-Lago to conclude an agreement. Speculation has now shifted from an extension to a conclusion of the trade war. Memorandums of understanding are being drafted in 6 key areas that include cyber theft, intellectual property, currency and non-tariff barriers. While there will be legs to this rally, it's important to understand that a final trade agreement could take many forms. The US could promise to keep tariffs where they are (with no further increases) and review them in a few months/years or they could abolish them completely. There’s also the possibility that a deal “might not happen at all” according to Trump but he’s motivated to get it done. Fed Chairman Powell is headed to Capitol Hill Tuesday to testify before Congress. His prepared comments on the economy and monetary policy will be released at 9:45AM NY/14:45 GMT and they should drive EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD higher. If the trade deal gives Powell a new sense of optimism, risk appetite will improve, lifting high-beta currencies. If he remain cautious, stresses the need for patience, talks about the downside risks to growth and the possibility of fewer rate hikes, the US dollar will fall, which should still be positive for EUR, AUD and NZD. USD/JPY on the other hand will rise on optimism and fall on pessimism. EUR/USD ended the day at its highest level in more than 2 weeks but it remains firmly within its recent range. A move above 1.1390 is needed for the upside breakout to be real. Sterling extended its gains above 1.31 versus the U.S. dollar after Prime Minister May delayed the “meaningful vote” to March 12, two weeks before they are scheduled to leave the European Union. This decision should have been negative for the currency but investors believe that by running down the clock, May leaves Parliament with no choice but to take over the Brexit process. She’ll have to request an extension of Article 50 or risk being shut out of negotiations. There’s talk that the European Commission could consider a 2-year delay and the Labour party is moving toward supporting a second referendum. Both choices are better than the current course, which is what investors are banking on. The Canadian dollar was the only major currency that failed to benefit from the risk rally and oil prices are to blame. Crude tumbled more than 3% after a tweet from President Trump that simply said “Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike – fragile!” While there was no specific threat, investors feared that the president, who hasn’t tweeted about oil since December, is returning to his criticism of the alliance. It is also a nudge to Saudi Arabia who previously raised output on the back of pressure from the Trump Administration *************************************************** END OF ARTICLE **************************************************************************************************** SOURCE: www.investing.com With FED chairman speaking this week, the USD is in for a shakeout which inturn would affect other currencies specifically speaking about AUD, JPY, NZD and EURO. On a technical perspective of this trade analysis, the price on the daily TF is forming a rough head and shoulders pattern and the neckline is just seem to be present above the weekly 50 EMA. Shall the neckline break it would also be favorable the price breaks the weekly 50 EMA in the process with convincing fashion. The next support based on the Monthly charts lies at the 1.55 crucial level where the price is expected to be headed! Based on all the fundamental analysis and technical ones shall the criteria meet i will likely wait for the neckline to break and retest before making any suitable entry. However we are also keeping an eye out for the AUDUSD pair as these two are kind of correlated which makes executing two trades a risky scenario. Whichever pair gives the best outcome i will possibly take either one of these AUD related pair trade! This just represents my analysis on this pair, shall there be a suitable trade criteria i will post them in a new thread. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
SINO-US TRADE DEAL COULD MAKE AUSSIE REACH 0.73000 LEVEL!With Tariffs delayed which were suppose to come into effect on 1st march and renewed optimism that a trade deal could be reached soon between the world two largest economy, Aussie could be in for a benefit! China usually imports many of its raw material from Australia and if a trade deal can be reached soon (which is a likely scenario) aussie dollar could make a jump towards the crucial 0.73000 level where weekly 50 EMA is present. As of right now the AUD has started the week on strong positive note gaining more than 0.64% of its value since Trump announced that the tariffs that were suppose to come into effect would be delayed and he also signaled that a trade deal would be achieved soon. If a deal is achieved, Chinese economy will slowly start to pick up pace again and thereby taking the AUD higher against the USD and other currencies. However do NOT be fooled thinking that this may make the AUD rally! The AUD faces a lot of resistance on its path to uptrend not only technically but fundamentally too. On a fundamental aspect even though a trade deal could be struck soon, other factors are not in the AUD favor such as the RBA cutting its forecast on the rates and a chinese region banning coal imports from Australia, even certain economic indicators are showing results below the forecast. Taking all this fundamental aspects into consideration, the AUD will likely not make a big move to the upside but a rather short one and after that it remains to be seen what will happen to this pair. Overall market sentiment are bearish on both AUD and NZD dollars! Now coming to the technical aspect on this pair, the daily chart shows a descending trendline being respected on numerous occasions, a sustained break above this trendline would mean the price will likely target the 0.73000 level where the weekly 50 EMA is present. So for now its best to wait for the price to break the trendline and retest certain levels before we can make our move! 0.70000 level is a crucial support if viewed on the monthly charts and since the flash crash happened that day numerous support levels were tested and rejected, projecting that the AUD buyers are present at those levels. For now if the trendline is broken then we will wait for it to break convincingly and retrace slightly so we can make a move. shall there be any updates i would provide them in a new thread. this post just represents My personal outlook on this current pair. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
1