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RBA

AUDNZD - 240 Pips Upside TargetAfter an impulsive bullish move on 19th October, price has been developing correctively, and has hit the minimum target for a decent retracement between 50% and 61.8%. As long as price remains above the structural trend line, we remain bullish on AUDNZD and can potentially target 1.1332 area. We are having the RBA and RBNZ Rate Statement this week which might provide us the catalyst to move price. Disclaimer - make sure you have a proper trading plan before taking any trades.
Long
by KarYong
4
Short AUDCAD - residue play post rate hike (Late Entry)This morning as the beginning of Asia session you can see that the market bid up AUD prepping for a good Trade Balance Data. This is kinda hit and miss historically, I just did a quick statistics analysis to data release since end of 2013 and the missed forecast currently at 49%. Not very encouraging for a certain bet. The price action up until the announcement was strongest in AUDCAD, which again tilting the odds in the Short favor. If data is a hit, it likely won't move much further given the pair has had a big retracement since CAD rate hike last night, on the other hand a miss would prepare you the best entry to squeeze out the last juice from the rate hike. Again, retail IG Sentiment is Long, I wanna be Short. Technical level was 0.98 and this week Pivot at 0.9817. I did not take the trade as I was away from desk but if it's retracing to just around the 0.98-0.9792 (Last Week Pivot) I will enter. Target wise, I'd love to hit the 0.971-0.972 area but it won't get there if there is no further support from CAD news coming Friday. As for AUD, I don't expect Governor Lowe to make any hawkish remarks. It's still a bit of a risk event that if you make early entry now and trail your stop loss just before the speech, I believe that gives a better protection.
Short
by vietbach1990
3
RBA Rate Decision - Neutral unless Hawkish SurpriseToday AUDUSD has risen since morning anticipating good Caixin data. The better than expected release pushed price even further and gives people who trade into the news chances to take profit. The subsequent drop of can be a combination of taking profit and also market pricing in a Dovish RBA statement due soon. Also according to IG Sentiment statistic, retail trader is net short AUDUSD pair. My take is if the RBA does send out a Dovish statement, there is not much for market to move since this is expected. The risk is on a Hawkish statement. A surprise upside will cause a lot people to reverse their positions and send the pair higher. The next major news is tomorrow GDP release and it is expected to be very good. Again, today rate statement gives us hint to prepare for tomorrow release. Technical levels that I watched are round level 0.795. If there is a dovish statement I expect people who made the early short to take profit around this level, if there is a Hawkish statement, I will look to enter Long as price may spike to the previous week Pivot of 0.7966 (even potentially to 0.8 if tomorrow GDP is good).
Long
by vietbach1990
EURUSD Pull Back For Weekly, Monthly And Daily SetupBased on the trend formation on that this pair has been on, It has broken the monthly consolidation level and trend line, this pair might be heading for a good long trade but before then expect a retracement. I will enter the trade when the price comes down to the level and ride to the first zone as indicated. However, if price breaks the minor resistance level indicated (the weekly high), I will wait for another short signal for a retrace on another price level before joining bulls.
Short
by DevLucem
AUDUSD - We got the first impulse move upFollowing up from our latest post on AUDUSD, we got the first impulse move up after price met the minimum target area around 0.7827 on the lower timeframe. Our bias still remains to the upside, and we are now looking for opportunities to scale in, increasing our profit potential, yet at the same time reducing our risk. *These posts are meant to be educational, and not served as a trade call. So do make sure you have a proper trading and risk management plan before engaging on any trades.
Long
by KarYong
AUDUSD: Monthly uptrend finally confirmed - Buy the dip$AUDUSD took ages, but finally confirmed the monthly rally we were anticipating. I already rode it up from the bottom practically, but took profits today at 0.8040. I will try to rejoin this once we get a short term entry signal or if we hit monthly support below. For now, I'll wait and watch. The good thing is this is a big monthly trend and the target is significant, so we can get a lot of great daily trend signals on the way up, and countless add on trades too. Great time to trade Forex, after an excruciating sideways period of like 16 months. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
7
EURAUD - Will RBA weaken the Aussie this week?The Aussie has been rallying strongly since the last RBA Rate Statement, and coupled with the weakness on the US Dollar, the AUDUSD has gained more than 6% in the last 30 days. As often stated in the RBA Rate Statement, rising Aussie will complicate the economic transition. Given the RBA is meeting this week, will they send out a dovish tone to push the Aussie lower? Should that happen, we will be focusing on EURAUD for a potential long opportunity. Price has recently bounced strongly after hitting the target at 1.4478, giving us the expectation that we can now expect one more wave (5-wave) up towards 1.5032 - 1.5409 region. Combining with the potential of a year end tapering from ECB, we are currently holding on to a bullish bias on the EUR. What would be a better opportunity combining the fundamental forces of EUR and AUD, if RBA were to adopt a dovish tone this week. *Disclaimer - these are all just my personal observation and perspective of the market. Make sure you do your own due diligence before taking any trades.
Long
by KarYong
AUDUSD - What's Next Post-RBA?A slightly more dovish statement from the RBA this morning sent the Aussie falling towards 0.7600 level. We didn't catch the AUDUSD trade this morning but we traded the EURAUD and AUDJPY. In fact we shared the EURAUD trade idea () yesterday before RBA today. Our traders know how we leverage on the risk events and trade the fundamental catalyst in the financial market. Understanding the concept of waves movement in the market - impulse or corrective - is crucial in knowing with high probability where price is likely to go. As shared with our traders over and over again, DO NOT jump into a trade after an impulse move. So what's next for AUDUSD post RBA? Here're some current views and analysis - 1) Previous price move hit the 161.8% fibonacci level, giving us an expectation of a 5-wave structure developing. 2) Price came into the 23.6 - 38.2% fibonacci level potentially completing the minimum expectation for a wave 4 correction. Depending on how price react from here - 1) If price develop as a correction, we are likely to see another push lower; 2) If price bounce off from this level, we are likely to see price reaching for 0.7740 area. **This Friday NFP might be the key in providing us more information.
by KarYong
Short AUDGBP to 0.585 based on stagnant RBAExpect Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rates to stay stagnant. There has been a drop in auction clearance rates and property values across previously hot markets of Melbourne and Sydney due to APRA's interest only lending changes, but this is nothing to cause concern for the RBA. We can see the beginning of a downtrend on AUDGBP as confirmed by a lack of buying volume and the crossover of the moving average at 20, 50 and 100 on the 4hr Charts. Retail Sales in Australia are also expected to show a slower growth. From these factors I am predicting a short to around 0.5850 which we have previously seen as strong resistance prior to the last major bull run and now expect this to turn to a support. As always, Stay focused and trade to trade well.
Short
by OmegaTrade
EURAUD - Time to head higher?Early June we shared an idea on EURAUD short term downside towards 1.4732 area (). After hitting that area and completing the short term correction, we are now expecting price to move higher towards 1.5230 area to complete the overall 5-wave structure. Here are some reasons for me to have a bullish bias on EURAUD - 1) Price development on daily timeframe is showing a potential 5-wave structure development; 2) Price is currently showing bullish impulses on 4-hour timeframe after hitting the 0.382 - 0.50 fibonacci area, completing the minimum retracement for a wave 4 correction; and 3) The most recent price move is corrective, thus indicating that there is a high probability of seeing a bullish impulse to the upside. *Next week RBA Rate Statement and Cash Rate might be the catalyst to move the Aussie. P.S. My personal bias is to the upside, but doesn't mean it's time now to take a buy trade. Make sure you have a proper strategy to engage the trade according to your personal plan :)
Long
by KarYong
AUDUSD: Likely going up after retesting supportI think we can see a rally against the dollar here, and in other pairs naturally. This one happens to have a nice setup overall and has positive carry. You could risk a drop under yesterday's low, or 1-3 atr below 0.7475. There's upside to retest the next resistance level initially, eventually, one day it could break out in the monthly, but it's hard to put your finger on it and say, ok here it goes. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
AUDNZD Elliott Forecast & Flag Breakout TradeAt the moment, in the big picture we are forming an ABC zigzag correction pattern which will take us into the 1.07408 area in which price will continue upwards. For now we can short down to this level by taking flag breakouts in favor of the downside. We have just closed below an ascending triangle on the lower timeframes and this has lead me to go short taking conservative targets @1.08240. I may, however, trail stops with structure if the AUD interest rate decision causes more bears to step in.
Short
by wstipp18