Get started

RBA

AUDUSD: A traders' marketThe key levels on chart give an excellent idea of what's going on in $AUDUSD. My bias is the long side, so I'm buying each chance I get, on dips against support with tight stops. It's fairly easy to close in profit in a day or two most of the time. Longer term, we could be building a rally of monthly scale, but we need time to break above the resistance zone here. While buyers defend the lows, we're safe and can join them after any adverse excursion, but book partial profits each time until we really move. I'd reccomend using no stops, but sizing trades based on average true range values. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
AUD/USD M/T shortHi guys, In effect, this is an extension of my aussie trade posted pre-Trump (26th October 2016) in which we bagged 500 pips. AUDUSD has seen rapid recovery off the back of both dollar weakness (mainly due to lack of details of the US administration's economic plans) and rapidly rising commodity prices, in particular iron ore (/it has rallied 10% recently, mainly based on speculation). At present, the commodity currencies are more overvalued than any of their G10 counterparts at 15% in TWI terms, almost as much as they were a couple of years ago before they corrected substantially lower due to weaker commodity prices and rate cuts from the central banks (RBA in this case). Long term FX valuations point to AUD/USD fair value at 0.70. RBA have sounded more optimistic on growth recently but $MS and others expect a slowdown in the housing sector, which could trigger an RBA cut. It is likely that the RBA wants to limit AUD upside in the n/t and is ready to soft its tone in case the FX rate appreciates excessively. Moreover, as the market could well price in more aggressive action by the Fed, relative mon pols support USD against AUD in coming months. Iron ore futures need a reality check, which is my main reason for taking this trade (as well as favourable price action, esp on the weekly charts). RBA expects additional iron ore output from Brazil, as well as potential return of some output in China, to weigh on iron ore prices in the near term and doesn't see iron ore sticking around $90/metric ton. One could argue for days about whether iron ore prices should have rallied etc but one thing is for sure (as sure as you can be in this game!): iron ore prices need a correction. I see propensity for a correction down to as low as $80. Looking at price action, upward momentum seems to be waning (bearish RSI div + 2 weekly dojis). A correction towards the 50% retracement of the Nov-Dec 2016 move seems likely, in my view. GL all!
Short
by jamiegleave
2
AUDUSD: Update - Consolidating here will give us continuationIf AUDUSD is to hold here, and eventually break out, and cross the overhead resistance, we can see a massive rally take off, which you definitely don't want to miss. If you missed my previous entries, you may go long here, risking a drop under 0.7811. Keep risk to 0.5-1%. This is a swing trade setup. If you want, additionally, or perhaps if more conservative, you may use our monthly setup stop loss: 0.75248. Upside is significant, so don't miss this opportunity! Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
RBA rate decision preview, key levels highlightedThe RBA rate decision tomorrow at 0330GMT has unanimous expectations for rates to remain unchanged at record low 1.50% (ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures pricing in a 95% chance of a hold). Data has been weak since the last meeting with Unemployment Rate rising for both December and January and is now at the highest since June 2016, while we also saw a miss on expectations for all GDP and CPI figures. Despite this, the RBA is expected to use alternative methods to drive the economy, as soaring Building Approvals and rising house prices narrow the scope a near-term rate cut (low rates push up house prices), while surprisingly Goldman Sachs see the next RBA rate move to be a hike amid global economic recovery and increasing incomes. Pressure on the central bank is building as GDP on a Q/Q basis posted a contraction for the first time since Q1 of 2011 and retail sales hit a 4-month low in December. Additional easing is still a possibility according to JPMorgan who stated RBA could ease further this year if there is turbulence in the strength of the economy, while Credit Suisse stated RBA could have to cut rates as many as 3 more times. Since markets are expecting no rate move, focus will be on the statement as neutral or hawkish comments could dampen hopes of future easing and boost AUD
by Trader_Troy
Dark Cloud Cover at TL resistanceThe Aussie finished Friday lower, printing Dark Cloud Cover on back of stronger than expected annual wage growth in the US. Reversal candle occurred at falling wedge resistance / former support confluence and pair looks set to resume lower. Initial support is the .7296 - .7283 hourly zone, with a break below there confirming the top and targeting the lows above .7150. A break above .7365 would invalidate the set up and shift focus to the Dec 14 high at .7525.
Short
by MFXSCharts
AUDNZD Elliott wave trade signal: Can Santa rally pull AUDNZD?Talking Points: Technical Strategy: Bullish can be confirmed soon Elliottwave Count: Wave 2 can mark completed Analysis As per previous analysis, AUDNZD (Australian dollar / NewZealand dollar) was expecting to complete it's wave 2 correction @ 1.0350 after having an high over 1.0726. We were seen corrective move towards 1.0350 in expanded flat correction. We also had a nice bounce from channel support and horizontal support from 1.0350 levels. We are considering it's reversal trend and able to count five wave upwards move in lower time frame. Considering that analysis, we are targeting wave (iii) in coming months which can at-least target above 1.0726. However, we under estimated correction target and correction is still in progress. We are now seeing complex w-x-y correction in placed. We are marking that correction over as we see inner bearish trend line breakout. We will gain more confidence once we have trend line breakout which was drawn from wave 1 towards wave (x) and B. Breakout level can be on 1.0500. However, we are optimistic here and putting correction complete and look for impulse movements in wave 3. We are looking for break of 1.0488 to confirm our analysis Action We re-initiated our long position with definite stoploss.(No Action now) -- By Hoagtrading.com (Twitter: @Hoagtrading)
Long
by Hittesh
AUDUSD: Longer term charts might indicate a downtrendThere's a discrepancy between timeframes in $AUDUSD, with the daily recently turning into a downtrend, after suggesting buying dips was viable all year; the weekly in an uptrend, and close to fail to confirm bearish momentum within 2 weeks; and the monthly indicating a full flung downtrend is en route, and it should eventually achieve the 0.63111 mark by or before the end of December 2017. In the short term, the daily chart despite indicating bears are in control, might indicate a retracement or sideways consolidation is about to start, specially viable after we hit the second target, and/or when time for the daily downtrend runs out by January 3rd. RgMov warns you in the daily, if you wish to go long to catch a retracement, because price might just go sideways, chopping buyers and sellers out for a while, so it will be easier to take the sell side only, either after an overbought rally in the daily, or after a sideways consolidation ends. (I prefer to do nothing for now, but, if you're interested in going long, you can try to buy a new daily high, risking a drop under last week's low) Good luck, Ivan Labrie
Short
by IvanLabrie
AUDCAD: Trend will resumeTalking Point: Technical Strategy: Confirming it's bearish outlook Elliottwave View: Reversal confirmed and counting impulsive waves Analysis AUDCAD was trading sideway from Aug-2013. We were seen May-2015 a declined again but unable to takeout Aug-2013 low in impulse manner. We were experienced a bounce from 9170 area in May-2015. However, upside was corrective and can be counted as flat correction in Elliott-wave and possibly correction is over on 1.04 zone. With that in mind, we are expecting trend reversal should be taking place and can be seen impulsive declined from 1.04 and possibly we had it's first leg down from 1.04 to 0.9864 and now reversal confirmed from 1.0100 level. Currently we are counting impulsive bearish wave. We were expecting it's minor first leg and was expected small correction towards 1.00. This will provide anyone to join who missed this train. On 7th Dec (Today), we are confirming correction should be over. We are marking this is a complex flat correction where price was traded in range bound. Action We are running two short position from 1.01 and 1.004, and for both position we lowered down our stoploss. We also added plan for third position here. - By Hoagtrading.com (@hoagtrading)
Short
by Hittesh
AUDUSD: Monthly range expansions show sellers get trapped higherLooking at monthly ranges, we see that months with sharp selloffs, that surpass the previous true range, as measured from the open to the low, have been causing sellers to get trapped at increasingly higher prices. This is bullish and shows accumulation, and shakeouts taking place. The monthly chart shows a mode near the highs, and now we're testing support at the bottom of the monthly range, so we have a great opportunity on the long side, after the market got extremely one sided. Sellers might get trapped here again, this time higher than the previous range expansion months, which is bullish overall. Daily and weekly RgMov readings are bullish, and we have massive lag relative to copper and iron ore, which eventually will play out, so I remain bullish. The entry to add to longs is described in my 4h chart, see related ideas for more information. Keep these levels in mind, once above, they act as support on a retest. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
AUDUSD enters former support zoneThe Aussie broke through long term channel support in mid-November; falling nearly 300 pips in 3 days, before finding support above 73. Pair has since retraced approximately 61.8% of the decline from 7580 and is testing the .7440 - 75 former support zone. We are looking for a turn lower from here and an eventual break below the 5 month low at 7285. Alternatively; a break above 75 would target the next former support zone at 7555 - 7610, butwe expect any gains to remain capped below there.
Short
by MFXSCharts
AUDCAD: Trend Reversal?Talking Point: Technical Strategy: Confirming it's bearish outlook Elliottwave View : Confirming completion of wave (C) of c Analysis AUDCAD was trading sideway from Aug-2013. We were seen May-2015 a declined again but unable to takeout Aug-2013 low in impulse manner. We were experienced a bounce from 9170 area in May-2015. However, upside was corrective and can be counted as flat correction in elliott-wave and possibly correction is over on 1.04 zone. With that in mind, we are expecting trend reversal should be taking place and can be seen impulsive declined from 1.04 and possibly we had it's first leg down from 1.04 to 0.9864. Ongoing upward momentum can be wave 2 / wave B. Action We are having level planned to short this pair with limited risk and having maximum rewards. -- By @Hoagtrding (Hoagtrading.com)
by Hittesh
0.75 key price zone to monitor this week Last week AUDUSD was rejected again from the 0.77-0.78 daily resistance zone which is also the PRZ of a bearish Gartley (pink). The difference between this time and the previous times it was rejected from this price zone is that now AUDUSD sell off drove it below 2 MA lines and the bottom of a trading channel - Bearish sign Now 0.75 will be tested as support. 1) The 200 days MA line and the structure can drive AUDUSD higher for a short term pullback (or bullish continuation wave). 2) AUDUSD will break below 0.75 and continue towards the next support zone and the secondary target zone of the Gartley - 0.735. Read more about this scenario and others in this week's newsletters (link in bio)
by themarketzone
NZDUSD: Potential turning pointNZDUSD is at a good support zone, and could turn up from here, following gold, which is very oversold. I'm waiting to enter long here, I'd like to see how today's bar acts, to buy into strength going forward. You shouldn't rush into gold or NZDUSD longs right away, but, should monitor how today behaves first. The negative news surrounding New Zealand serve as an extra ingredient, to give us enough bearish sentiment for a bottom in here: www.bloomberg.com Live cattle and milk futures remain bullish, and gold might be about to bottom after stopping out longs and making perma-bulls give up, hopefully, very soon. If you want to learn more about the trade entry, and risk management, contact me via pm. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
AUDNZD November Month Technical: Can RBNZ make wave 3 move?Talking Points: AUDNZD Technical Strategy: Re-initiating Long position Elliottwave Count: Reversal is in process after wave 2 completion Analysis AUDNZD is expecting to complete it's wave 2 correction @ 1.0350 after having an high over 1.0726. We were seen corrective move towards 1.0350 in expanded flat correction. We also had a nice bounce from channel support and horizontal support from 1.0350 levels. We are considering it's reversal trend and able to count five wave upwards move in lower time frame. Considering that analysis, we are targeting wave (iii) in coming months which can atleast target above 1.0726. Action We are re-initiating a long position again after had a handsome profit on long from Sept month at level 1.0337. We also defined entry, exit and stoploss criteria in trade signal section.
Long
by Hittesh
Austrian Traded Index Analysis: Triangle scenario played well, nTalking Points: Austrian Traded Index (ATX) Technical Strategy : Hold until Triangle breakout Elliottwave Count : Triangle Analysis ATX (Austrian Traded Index) is in wave (B) which is in triangle formation. We are in last phase of triangle (wave e). We possibly see last pull leg up or in alternate scenario, we possibly see downtrend from current level. We might mark this move as confirmed after 2092 level breakout which is drawn from wave (c) to wave (d). Each leg of triangle retraced 76.4% of fibbo, with same analogy we can target wave (e) to 2502.26 or at-least 2390 (already reached 2390). Action We are bullish on AUD basket in short term and same time we need to put caution on every AUD pairs. As those pairs are on bearish view for longer time frame. Once ATX confirm it's triangle breakout, we can expect impulse bear move on AUD pairs. -- By @Hoagtrading (Hoagtrading.com)
AShort
by Hittesh
AUDUSD: UpdateIn my previous publication I had signaled a good spot to go long AUDUSD, based on the support level that was tested, after breaking out of a linear regression channel, and landing on a VIX generated support zone. Commercial traders have been a reliable source of information so far, and you can read my analysis on the subject in the previous post. I have part of my position still running, and I'm looking to take short term trades on the way up. For now, AUDUSD has broken above all resistance levels, except for the top of the Brexit range. Ideally, we need tomorrow's bar to stay above this level on close, confirming the breakout of the range, and then proceeding to rally above the next level, the top of the first rate cut date's range, which triggered a massive decline in the Aussie back in May. I'll add the short term view in the comments below. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
AUDNZD: Looking for long opportunityTalking Point: Technical Strategy: Turning Bullish Elliottwave View: Possibly flat correction over. Analysis We were bullish on AUDNZD since Sept month and booked handsome profit on reversal 1.0340. We now looking to re-initiate long position on confirmation. Current pricing structure suggesting a flat correction near previous wave 4 region. This region provide target zone for wave 1 after reversal. As current price is trading in a channel, we are seeking for few confirmation to mark this as a flat correction and initiating long position with defined stoploss. Action Looking for long opportunity for targeting above 1.0910 -- By @Hoagtrading (Hoagtrading.com)
Long
by Hittesh