RBA
AUDNZD Poised for further upsideThe Aussie dollar's ability to bounce despite yesterday's risk-off move is encouraging for bulls. Market positioning could be supportive, with IMM data showing largest net AUD/USD short since early February 2016. With commodities rising and a gentile pace of rate hikes from the FED (priced in) Aud may continue to benefit vs. NZD which has seen some fairly cautious commentary from the RBNZ recently.
AUDUSD: If it climbs over resistance, monthly rally can resume..I started averaging into an $AUDUSD long here, first entry at 0.7537. I suspect we might have what it takes to break above the monthly mode once again, and given the potential bottom in the Euro, and how strong the Aussie has remained all along, as $EURUSD was plunging, it is in a good position to rally from. It acts as a sort of proxy for emerging markets and China overall, a growth proxy.
Best of luck if going long,
Cheers.
Ivan Labrie.
AUDUSD: Could be a swing trading opportunity here...$AUDUSD offers a very interesting long setup here, good risk/reward and probability in the daily timeframe.
Overall, it should act as a proxy for global growth, and it's a good currency trade to ride waves of risk on/off sentiment in equities.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Preferring to shift my attention to the RBA Decision and StatemeThe cash rate is not expected to change, and the accompanying statement could indicate continual growth for the economy in 2018. Overall, it is likely to be positive news.
But with less global risks now, we could see a short uptick in the AUDUSD, before it turns back down to test the recent lows.
AUDUSD RBA Decision
Tomorrow morning, we have the RBA decision on the Australian cash rate (interest rate) with expectation for rates to be kept on hold. We’ll look towards the sentiment of the accompanying statement.
In previous statements, the RBA had signaled an intention to increase rates in 2018, but current expections have become more dovish, with rates likely to be held at 1.50% for the year.
AUDNZD: 2017 AU$ appreciated +600 pips Low to High before MarchFX:AUDNZD
Someone called me 'dramatic' I just love it! Let's keep having fun while 'banking' a more dimmes (Ocean Thirteen). Sure, going back to the idea.
1)Last year, between January and April this cross appreciate 660-pips from the low in Jan. 1.0323 handle to the high in March 1.1017 handle.
2)What if it continues, after all, RBA seems to be eager to move soon to reduce households debt and tight a bit over there. Yes, you haven't heard, right? Well, It seems Real Estate went out of control in Sydney and now consumers are far too in debt (where have I seen this...?)
3)NZ$ as usual, vulnerable on the dairy front, milk not milking it.
4)A primitive analysis I know, but could 2018 be the 'Continuation Year' not too different from the $EURUSD or $GBPUSD long trades.
5)I should be playing this with a full standard lot, just for the records.
AUDUSD-Will Aussie drop below 70 cents?Hedge funds estimates are all over the board, from 67 cents to 86 cents.
Some of those Hedge funds were kind enough to supply us with an explanation of their speculation on the value of the Aussie, here are some of their scenarios:
• Aussie will be traded below 70 cents by mid-2018, if the nation’s bonds will falls below that of U.S. Treasuries.
• The Aussie is likely to stay above 70 cents due to China’s strong economy, and due to the expectation of commodity price to increase in value.
• The RBA may start rising interest from all time low (1.5%), reducing the house-price growth. According to this scenario, if the unemployment rate drops from 5.4% (19.12.17) to 5%, then the RBA is expected to increase interest rates.
• If China growth will continue its stable track and won’t slow down, then the Aussie is supposed to reduce its decline.
• U.S and Australia have the same interest value, standing at 1.50%bps, which means that IF Australia premium on “Australia Government bonds 2 & 5years yield” will trade below the “U.S Government bonds 2 & 5years yield” the Australia interest rate will weigh in the currency more than other factors.
•
Key point to remember:
• According to the CFTC report, hedge funds reduced their long positioning almost by half, from 86K to 44K.
Shorting AUD against the USDThe rationale for this trade is to take advantage of the vanishing Australian Yield spread, the slowing growth, the expectancy of holding the interest rates by the RBA tomorrow.. thats my bearish rational for the Australian Dollar. My bullish rationale for the USD is ofcourse the tax reform news.
Risk for this trade to be nullified (for the dollar) is as mentioned here in my EURUSD trading plan :
Push to .7500 level to complete daily sharkwe have a decent intra day short opportunity to start week. RBA minutes could be the catalyst the market needs to complete the daily bullish shark harmonic at .7505
AUDNZD - 240 Pips Upside TargetAfter an impulsive bullish move on 19th October, price has been developing correctively, and has hit the minimum target for a decent retracement between 50% and 61.8%.
As long as price remains above the structural trend line, we remain bullish on AUDNZD and can potentially target 1.1332 area.
We are having the RBA and RBNZ Rate Statement this week which might provide us the catalyst to move price.
Disclaimer - make sure you have a proper trading plan before taking any trades.
AUDUSD Short - Retest of Monthly SupportAUDUSD Short after Entering 61.8 Fib Region. Looking to Extend Past Extension Levels to The Weekly Support AFter Breaking Monthly. Price is currently Sitting On Monthly Support
$AUDUSD SwingA clean break and retest of the TL after market struggled to hold above the .8000 quarter point could see the market move back towards the .7800 lvl
Short AUDCAD - residue play post rate hike (Late Entry)This morning as the beginning of Asia session you can see that the market bid up AUD prepping for a good Trade Balance Data. This is kinda hit and miss historically, I just did a quick statistics analysis to data release since end of 2013 and the missed forecast currently at 49%. Not very encouraging for a certain bet.
The price action up until the announcement was strongest in AUDCAD, which again tilting the odds in the Short favor. If data is a hit, it likely won't move much further given the pair has had a big retracement since CAD rate hike last night, on the other hand a miss would prepare you the best entry to squeeze out the last juice from the rate hike. Again, retail IG Sentiment is Long, I wanna be Short.
Technical level was 0.98 and this week Pivot at 0.9817.
I did not take the trade as I was away from desk but if it's retracing to just around the 0.98-0.9792 (Last Week Pivot) I will enter. Target wise, I'd love to hit the 0.971-0.972 area but it won't get there if there is no further support from CAD news coming Friday. As for AUD, I don't expect Governor Lowe to make any hawkish remarks. It's still a bit of a risk event that if you make early entry now and trail your stop loss just before the speech, I believe that gives a better protection.
RBA - neutral or dovish stance?!there is a probability of the beginning of growth in the pair GBPAUD
- bullish daily RSI divergence
- level 1,6170
- RBA has dovish stance (Australian dollar remains quite overvalued) or neutral monetary policy (not hawkish)
- GBPNZD up trend
I will watch the price and follow it after the RBA meeting
RBA Rate Decision - Neutral unless Hawkish SurpriseToday AUDUSD has risen since morning anticipating good Caixin data. The better than expected release pushed price even further and gives people who trade into the news chances to take profit.
The subsequent drop of can be a combination of taking profit and also market pricing in a Dovish RBA statement due soon. Also according to IG Sentiment statistic, retail trader is net short AUDUSD pair. My take is if the RBA does send out a Dovish statement, there is not much for market to move since this is expected. The risk is on a Hawkish statement. A surprise upside will cause a lot people to reverse their positions and send the pair higher. The next major news is tomorrow GDP release and it is expected to be very good. Again, today rate statement gives us hint to prepare for tomorrow release.
Technical levels that I watched are round level 0.795. If there is a dovish statement I expect people who made the early short to take profit around this level, if there is a Hawkish statement, I will look to enter Long as price may spike to the previous week Pivot of 0.7966 (even potentially to 0.8 if tomorrow GDP is good).
EURUSD Pull Back For Weekly, Monthly And Daily SetupBased on the trend formation on that this pair has been on, It has broken the monthly consolidation level and trend line, this pair might be heading for a good long trade but before then expect a retracement. I will enter the trade when the price comes down to the level and ride to the first zone as indicated. However, if price breaks the minor resistance level indicated (the weekly high), I will wait for another short signal for a retrace on another price level before joining bulls.
AUDUSD - We got the first impulse move upFollowing up from our latest post on AUDUSD, we got the first impulse move up after price met the minimum target area around 0.7827 on the lower timeframe.
Our bias still remains to the upside, and we are now looking for opportunities to scale in, increasing our profit potential, yet at the same time reducing our risk.
*These posts are meant to be educational, and not served as a trade call. So do make sure you have a proper trading and risk management plan before engaging on any trades.
AUDUSD: Monthly uptrend finally confirmed - Buy the dip$AUDUSD took ages, but finally confirmed the monthly rally we were anticipating. I already rode it up from the bottom practically, but took profits today at 0.8040. I will try to rejoin this once we get a short term entry signal or if we hit monthly support below. For now, I'll wait and watch. The good thing is this is a big monthly trend and the target is significant, so we can get a lot of great daily trend signals on the way up, and countless add on trades too. Great time to trade Forex, after an excruciating sideways period of like 16 months.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
short AUDNZDWith RBA tomorrow Audnzd seems to have retraced all of its earlier losses from Asian trading. Selling here AT 1.0657 with a 30 pip stop makes a good RR before RBA tomorrow.They are definitely not going to be pleased with aussie strength tomorrow.
EURAUD - Will RBA weaken the Aussie this week?The Aussie has been rallying strongly since the last RBA Rate Statement, and coupled with the weakness on the US Dollar, the AUDUSD has gained more than 6% in the last 30 days. As often stated in the RBA Rate Statement, rising Aussie will complicate the economic transition. Given the RBA is meeting this week, will they send out a dovish tone to push the Aussie lower?
Should that happen, we will be focusing on EURAUD for a potential long opportunity.
Price has recently bounced strongly after hitting the target at 1.4478, giving us the expectation that we can now expect one more wave (5-wave) up towards 1.5032 - 1.5409 region.
Combining with the potential of a year end tapering from ECB, we are currently holding on to a bullish bias on the EUR.
What would be a better opportunity combining the fundamental forces of EUR and AUD, if RBA were to adopt a dovish tone this week.
*Disclaimer - these are all just my personal observation and perspective of the market. Make sure you do your own due diligence before taking any trades.
AUDUSD: Gaining strength during a bull market in steelI think AUDUSD is ready to move, I booked a short term long, so my long here is risk free if stopped. We can enter at market, and add on dips, just don't buy your full position in one go. Target on chart, stop at 0.7582.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
