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AUD/USD climbs on Aussie job data, Fed rate cutThe Australian dollar has posted sharp gains on Thursday. AUD/USD rose as much as 1% before paring most of those gains. In the North American session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6792, up 0.41% on the day. Australia created 47.5 thousand jobs in August, close to the revised 48.9 thousand in July and crushing the market estimate of 25 thousand. The gains were all part-time positions as full-time jobs actually declined by 3.1 thousand. Still, investors gave a thumbs-up and the Australian dollar is up sharply today. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, in line with market expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia remains an outlier among the major central banks as it is yet to lower rates. The RBA has maintained rates at 4.35% since November but its “higher for longer” stance has not brought down inflation as much as expected. Inflation has dropped to 3.5% but that is still higher than the inflation target range of between 2 and 3 percent. The RBA meets next Wednesday, a day before the August inflation report and is expected to maintain rates. In one of the most anticipated rate meetings in recent memory, the Federal Reserve surprised the markets with an oversize cut of 50 basis points. The markets were unsure right up to decision time whether the Fed would go with a modest 25 bps cut or the large 50 bps cut. In the end, the Fed opted for the deeper cut in a near-unanimous decision (11 of 12 members voted in favor). The message from the Fed was that it is confident that inflation will remain sustainably near the 2% target and that the weak labor market was in need of strong relief. In his press conference, Fed Chair Powell tried to assure the markets that the US economy was in good shape and that today’s move was not a signal that further 50 bps cuts were on the way. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6798. Above, there is resistance at 0.6862 0.6751 and 0.6687 are the next support levels
by OANDA
AU Bears "Head" Down to Target .6570Here I have AUD/USD on the Daily Chart! From Friday's High @ .67672 to its Low @ .66597, we can see we get the Confirmation of a strong reversal pattern with the Break of the Neckline of the Head & Shoulders! Now what I'd like to see off the same High and Low of Friday is Price give us a 38.2% Retracement of the Low & Pullback to test the Neckline for potential Sell Entries. ( .67008 - .6697 ) Swing High of Head to Neckline = 126.9 Pips Neckline - 126.9 = .6570 (Target) Fundamentals: AUD's undoing comes from a mix of a rise in Unemployment to 4.2% and Retail Sales ending August coming in @ 0% With the horrible run of jobs reports for the USD to start September, it managed to recover to end the week and give the idea that a 50 bps Rate Cut is less likely sitting at a 30% change and a 25 bps Rate Cut more likely at a 70% chance at the Sept 18th meeting. -RBA Interest Rate sits @ 4.35% -Fed Interest Rate sits @ 5.5% This upcoming week will be VERY news heavy for USD seeing as there is: -Core CPI, CPI m & y on Wednesday, Sept. 11th -Core PPI/ PPI m/m & Unemployment Claims on Thursday, Sept 12th!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
AUD/USD steady despite weak GDPThe Australian dollar is drifting on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6704 in the European session, down 0.10% today at the time of writing. The Australian dollar took a bath a day earlier, sliding 1.1%, one of the sharpest daily declines this year. Australia’s economy gained a paltry 0.2% q/q in the second quarter, shy of the market estimate of 0.3% and unchanged for a third consecutive quarter. This was the softest pace of growth in five quarters and the small gain was driven by higher government spending as household spending declined. Yearly, GDP climbed 1%, in line with the market estimate and down from 1.3% in the first quarter. This was the lowest annual GDP release since the fourth quarter of 2020. Australia’s economic picture is being described by some local commentators as a “horror show”. This is not a wild exaggeration as GDP is in the doldrums, inflation remains sticky and consumer spending was flat in July. The Reserve Bank has maintained rates at 4.35% since November but inflation hasn’t fallen as quickly as anticipated. The GDP release is unlikely to be a factor at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next meeting on Sept. 24. The central bank is primarily concerned with inflation and the labor market. Governor Bullock has essentially ruled out a rate cut in the next six months but the markets have priced in a rate cut before year’s end and more cuts in early 2025. Bullock will speak at an event in Sydney early on Thursday and the markets will be looking for some insights from the hawkish Governor regarding future rate policy. There is support at 0.6681 and 0.6650 0.6738 and 0.6769 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUD/USD sinks ahead of GDPThe Australian dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6732 in the European session, down 0.88% today at the time of writing. Australia’s economy has been sputtering and the markets aren’t expecting much change from second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. GDP is expected to trickle lower to 1% y/y, down from 1.1% in Q1, which was the weakest pace of growth since Q4 2020. Quarterly, the market estimate for GDP stands at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in Q1. GDP-per-capita is expected to be negative, another indication that economic activity remains subdued. Australia has been hit by a drop in iron ore and core prices and exports fell by 4.4% in the second quarter, which doesn’t bode well for the Australian dollar. The GDP is unlikely to change the Reserve Bank of Australia’s plans when it meets on Sept. 24. The central bank is closely watching inflation, which remains stubbornly high, as well as the labor market. Governor Bullock has said she has no plans to lower the cash rate from its current 4.35% for the next six months. The RBA has stuck to its “higher for longer” stance and has maintained rates since November. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates on September 18, with a 70% likelihood of a quarter-point cut and a 31% likelihood of a half-point cut. Ahead of the meeting is a crucial employment report on Friday. The previous jobs report was much weaker than expected and triggered a meltdown in the financial markets. Another weak jobs report would raise the likelihood of a half-point cut, while a solid release will cement a quarter-point cut. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6780 and is testing support at 0.6737. Below, there is support at 0.6708 0.6809 and 0.6852 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Australian CPI falls but markets not impressedThe Australian dollar continues to have a quiet week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6796 in the European session, up 0.06% on the day at the time of writing. Australia’s inflation rate continued to decelerate in July, although the markets were hoping for more. CPI rose 3.5%, down from 3.8% in June but above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the lowest figure since March but much of the decline was driven by electricity rebates which artificially lowered electricity prices. Core inflation eased but goods inflation remained flat. The markets weren’t impressed with the inflation data and the odds of a rate cut in November fell to 48%, down from 58% prior to the inflation release. The markets are more dovish than the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has discussed raising rates at recent meetings. The central bank is not satisfied with the pace of underlying inflation and has projected that it won’t return to the target band of 2% to 3% until the end of 2025. Governor Bullock has said that the Bank has no plans to cut for at least six months, but the markets are betting that the RBA won’t stay on the sidelines while the Fed and other major central banks are lowering rates. The financial markets are hanging onto every word from FOMC members and we’ll hear from members Christopher Waller later today and Rafael Bostic early on Thursday. As well, the US releases second estimate GDP for the second quarter on Thursday. The initial estimate showed the economy powering ahead with a 2.8% gain, double the 1.4% pace in Q1. The second estimate is expected to confirm the initial reading and confirm that the economy remains in solid shape, despite concerns about a weak employment labor which led to a market meltdown earlier this month. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6784. Below, there is support at 0.6771 0.6805 and 0.6818 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Aussie jumps as RBA says rates could riseThe Australian dollar has had a busy week and is showing strong gains on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6550, up 0.50% at the time of writing. Two days after the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate, Governor Bullock reinforced her hawkish stance on monetary policy. At the meeting, Bullock dropped a bombshell, saying she didn’t expect a rate cut for at least the next six months. Bullock said earlier today that the central bank wouldn’t hesitate to raise rates if needed, arguing that “the alternative of persistently high inflation is worse”. The RBA discussed the possibility of a rate hike at recent meetings and today Bullock said the RBA board had “explicitly considered” a rate hike at Tuesday’s meeting. The Australian dollar has responded with strong gains to Bullock’s hawkish remarks. At the Tuesday meeting, the central bank opted to maintain rates at the 12-year high of 4.35% for a seventh straight time. At a time when other major central banks have lowered rates and the mighty Federal Reserve is poised to make an initial cut in September, the RBA could well move in the opposite direction. The blame can be squarely put on inflation, which remains sticky, especially services prices. The RBA is projecting that CPI, which rose to 3.9% in the second quarter, won’t recede to 2-3% target until late 2025. The labor market continues to remain tight to the large-scale immigration, which will also make it difficult for the RBA to reduce rates. The financial markets are not marching to Bullock’s hawkish tune and widely expect a rate cut in December. The RBA has a poor track record with its forward guidance, particularly when it pledged in 2020 not to raise rates until 2023 and then hiked in May 2022. As well, the trend among central banks has been to lower rates and the RBA risks becoming an outlier if its raises rates. AUD/USD pushed above resistance at 0.6520 and tested resistance at 0.6559 earlier 0.6471 and 0.6432 are the next support levels
by fisherkj4
AUD/USD remains under pressure as RBA holds ratesThe Australian dollar gained ground earlier but has reversed directions and has edged lower. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6778, down 0.24% at the time of writing. The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.35% for a seventh straight time today. The markets had fully priced in this move and the Australian dollar’s reaction has been muted. At her press conference, RBA Governor Bullock said that policymakers had discussed the possibility of raising rates at today’s meeting. This has become a pattern for the RBA, which considered hiking rates in previous meetings but opted to hold rates each time. Bullock dropped a bombshell when she said that the central bank was unlikely to lower interest rates for at least six months due to inflation being too high. Bullock said that the markets were “a little bit ahead of themselves” in pricing rate cuts, but the markets still expect the Bank to start lowering rates before the end of the year. The RBA is currently forecasting that inflation, which rose to 3.8% in Q2, will not drop to the midpoint of the 1-3% target band until mid-2026. The RBA Governor noted the sudden meltdown in global stock markets, but said this development had not factored in to today’s rate decision. The rout stocks was a reaction to a soft US employment report on Friday, which has raised fears of a US recession. The Australian dollar wobbled on Monday, falling as much as 2.4% before recovering most of these losses. The S&P ASX 200 index, the country’s benchmark stock index, declined by 3.7% on Monday but has stabilized today. There is resistance at 0.6562 and 0.6627 0.6455 and 0.6390 are the next support levels
by OANDA
AUD/USD slides on fears over the US economyThe Australian dollar has taken a nasty spill to start off the trading week. AUD/USD dropped as much has 2.5% in the Asian session and fell to its lowest levels since November 2023. The Aussie has pared those losses and is down 0.96% at the time of writing, trading at 0.6448. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets early Tuesday and it’s a virtual certainty that the Bank will hold the cash rate at 4.35%. The RBA has maintained rates six straight times and policy makers have discussed raising rates at recent meetings. This goes against the grain of the current trend in which central banks are lowering rates. The RBA would prefer to lower rates, which are at a 12-year high and are squeezing businesses and households. The problem remains stubborn inflation, which moved the wrong way in the second quarter, rising from 3.6% to 3.8%. This is well above the RBA’s upper band of its target range of between 1 and 3% and it won’t be a surprise if policy makers again debate raising rates at tomorrow’s meeting before keeping rates on hold. With the RBA expected to stay pat, the markets will be focusing on the rate statement and Governor Bullock’s press conference. The message from the RBA is expected to be along the lines that inflation remains too high and it’s premature to cut interest rates. The Federal Reserve is aiming for a soft landing for the US economy, but concerns are rising that the economy could tip into recession. US nonfarm payrolls for July slowed to 114 thousand on Friday, much lower than the revised 179 thousand in June and the market estimate of 175 thousand. The labour market has cooled much more quickly than expected, and there have been calls for an emergency unscheduled rate cut. The Fed would prefer not to make such a move, which could panic the markets, but the next meeting on September 18th is looking far away. Can the Fed afford to wait until then to deliver a rate cut? AUD/USD pushed through 0.6471 and is testing support at 0.6432 There is resistance at 0.6520 and 0.6559
Long
by OANDA
AUD/USD shrugs as Australian retail sales jumpThe Australian dollar is drifting on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6674 at the time of writing, up 0.11%on the day. Australian consumers have been counting their pennies and reducing discretionary spending. Consumers are feeling the double squeeze of high borrowing costs and stubborn inflation, but retail sales pulled a surprise today with a gain of 0.6% m/m in May. This follows a meager gain of 0.1% in April and crushed the market estimate of 0.2%. This marked the sharpest gain since January, but does not mean that Australian consumers have suddenly switched to a spendthrift mindset. Rather, the jump in retail sales was the result of many retailers involving large discounts and sales events. The monthly May release was strong but there is an underlying weakness in consumer spending, as retail sales climbed just 1.7% y/y in May, compared to over 4% in early 2023. This means that the retail market remains weak despite today’s upbeat report. The Reserve Bank of Australia has stressed that rate hikes are on the table, as stubbornly high inflation has raised concerns that monetary policy may have to be tightened. The RBA discussed the possibility of a rate hike at each of the past two meetings and today’s strong retail sales could strengthen the case for a hike, although policy makers won’t make a rate decision based on one release. The RBA meets next on August 6 and the second-quarter CPI report, which will be released a week before will play a key role in the decision. The markets have priced in a 32% chance of a quarter-point at the August meeting, according to the ASX rate tracker. This would bring the cash rate to 4.6% and would mark the first rate hike since last November. There is resistance at 0.6699 and 0.6729 0.6660 is a weak support level. The next support level is 0.6630
by OANDA
Aussie Shows Bullish Pattern After Hot CPI DataAussie is still sideways against the US dollar, trapped in a range for more than a month. However, the price is now moving towards the upper side of this pattern after hot Australina CPI (4%) this week, so RBA shoudl stay hakiwhs, suggesting a greater chance for a break out of a bullish triangle rather than a bearish trend. If analysis is correct, we are currently in a subwave "e", meaning there could still be some intraday weakness down to the 0.6630 to 0.6640 potential support levels. These would then be the final piece of this bullish structure, which should eventually take the price higher. However, only if the price closes above 0.6700 , the triangle will be seen as completed, and we should expect a straight move higher, possibly even to the 0.6780 area. Grega
Long
by ew-forecast
AUD/USD Upside Bias Supported by Hot AU InflationAustralian inflation accelerated 4% y/y in May, according to Wednesday’s data, marking the fastest pace in six months. The Reserve Bank of Australia was already worried around price pressures and had once again discussed raising rates during this month’s hold, while keeping the door open to further tightening. Yesterday’s hot CPI report likely aggravated these concerns and strengthens the case for a rate hike, while diminishing chances for a shift to a less restrictive chance this year. AUD/USD erased its gains yesterday after the initial jump, but remains constructive and the monetary policy differential supports further upside. The US Fed is reluctant to pivot, but still sees a rate cut this year, while markets are more aggressive and price in two moves. The technicals are also favorable, since the Aussie has defended the 38.2% Fibonacci of the last leg up and trades above the EMA200 (black line). This provide a solid basis for higher highs (0.6714) that would bring the 2024 peak in the spotlight (0.6839), although bulls don’t inspire yet confidence for challenging it. On the other hand, the bar is high for further tightening by the RBA, while the weak Australian economy creates pressure for an easier monetary stance. The Fed meanwhile expects just one cut this year, due to the disinflation slowdown, which supports the greenback. As such, the there is scope for renewed pressure towards the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci and the daily Ichimoku Cloud, but sustained weakness below it is not easy given the favorable monetary policy differential. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Long
by FXCM
Australian dollar edges lower, CPI nextThe Australian dollar is slightly lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6638 in the North American session, down 0.27% on the day. Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment index flexed some muscle earlier on Tuesday but that didn’t help the Australian dollar. The index jumped 1.7% in June, a strong turnaround after three straight declines. Despite the improvement, consumer confidence remains deep in negative territory, at 83.6. The index has been mired below 100 for over two years as pessimistic continue to outnumber optimists by a wide margin. Consumers have long been concerned that the Reserve Bank of Australia could raise interest rates, which at 4.35% are already at a 12-year high. The RBA remains concerned about sticky inflation and has warned that it could raise rates if inflationary pressures don’t ease. Inflation rose in April from 3.5% to 3.6% and May CPI, which will be released on Wednesday, is expected to rise to 3.8%. If inflation did accelerate in May, it could set up another hold in rates and possibly a rate hike when the RBA meets in July. The RBA left interest rates at 4.35% at the June meeting for a seventh straight time and discussed the possibility of a rate hike at that meeting. Inflation will be on center stage again on Thursday with the release of the Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations, which is expected to rise to 4.3% in June, after a 4.1% gain in May. In the US, Conference Board Consumer Confidence dipped to 100.4 in June, down from the revised 101.3 in May and just above the market estimate of 100.0, which separates pessimism from optimism. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6635. Below, there is support at 0.6591 0.6685 and 0.6729 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Australian dollar calm ahead of consumer confidenceAustralian dollar has started the week quietly. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6648 early in the North American session, up 0.11% on the day. Australia releases Westpac Consumer Sentiment early on Tuesday. Consumer confidence has been weak and fell 0.3% in May to 82.4, following a 2.4% decline in April. Consumers have been pessimistic about the weak economy and concerns that sticky inflation could prod the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike interest rates. The RBA has maintained its stance of “higher for longer”, holding rates at 4.35% for the past five meetings. The central bank hasn’t shied away from warning that it could raise rates if inflationary pressures don’t ease. The April CPI report surprised on the upside, rising from 3.5% to 3.6%, above the market estimate of 3.5%. The May CPI report will be released on Wednesday, with a market estimate of 3.8%. If inflation does rise again, we will no doubt hear the RBA express its concern and reiterate that rate hikes remain on the table. The economy is barely treading above water and posted a weak 0.1% gain in the first quarter, but the labor market, which is surprisingly tight, continues to confound the RBA and has dampened any hope of a rate cut in the near term. There are no US releases on Monday but we’ll hear from two FOMC members, Christopher Waller and Mary Daly. Investors will be hoping for some insights about the Fed’s rate path. The Federal Reserve has been hawkish as inflation has been stickier than anticipated. The markets have priced in a rate cut in September at around 60%, according to CME’s FedWatch. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6655. Above, there is resistance at 0.6685 0.6591 and 0.6541 are the next support levels
by OANDA
AUD/USD Upside Favored by Monetary Policy DeferentialAUD/USD upside bias is supported by the monetary policy differential and the technicals. The Australian central bank stayed on the sidelines on Tuesday, but once again considered the case for a hike and does not shut the door to such action. The US Fed on the other hand has already pointed to lower rates and markets expect two cuts within the year. The Aussie benefited from RBA’s hawkish hold and after defending again the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci of the last leg up, it returned above the EMA200 (black line). This reaffirms the bullish tilt and strengthens prospects of new higher highs (0.6714), but does not inspire confidence for tackling 0.6839. On the other hand, AUD/USD has faltered above 0.6700 multiple times, creating scope for a pullback and a retest of the 38.2% Fibonacci and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. This would bring 0.6465 in the spotlight, but strong catalyst would be needed for testing it. Markets may be optimistic about two Fed cuts, but officials see just one and their reluctance to pivot supports the greenback. The RBA keeps the door open to a hike, but there is a high bar for such action, while deteriorating economy could increase pressure for easier stance. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Long
by FXCM
BofA sees Aussie dollar outperforming Bank of America anticipates diverging monetary policy paths between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) after their respective June meetings, with the RBA seen as one of the last major central banks to cut interest rates. The Wall Street bank's view was reinforced by robust Australian labor market data, suggesting potential for the RBA to maintain higher rates for longer. "An unambiguously strong jobs report has further strengthened our conviction in higher-for-longer trades," said Adarsh Sinha, a strategist at Bank of America. Australian employment jumped by 39,700 in May, beating forecasts of 30,000, driven by full-time hiring as unemployment fell, official data showed. "We see this as a good entry point for adding higher-for-longer trades, including our recommendation to buy carry-rich AUD/CHF," Sinha added. Earlier this year, Sinha made similar calls favoring the Australian dollar on expectations the RBA would lag peers in lowering rates. He cited other factors supporting potential Aussie outperformance in 2024, including a less restrictive RBA policy rate versus other economies, bearish China sentiment subsiding, and Australia's solid fiscal position. Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, said he expected the Aussie to gain ground versus the Canadian dollar too, as the RBA is in no rush to cut rates unlike the Bank of Canada.
by BlackBull_Markets
Looking forward to the RBA decision on TuesdayWatch out for the RBA interest rate decision, which is coming out on Tuesday. Strong moves in AUD are possible. #AUDUSD EASYMARKETS:AUDUSD Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
by easyMarkets
RBA decision: Will the Aussie Dollar break out? RBA decision: Will the Aussie Dollar break out? A potentially interesting week awaits the Aussie dollar, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expected to hold its interest rate unchanged. Money markets price around a 97% chance for rates to remain at the current level and only a 3% probability of a 25-basis point cut. Last week, ANZ became the first of the big four banks to push their prediction of a RBA interest rate cut into 2025. The bank now expects the first RBA cash rate reduction to come in February. Before this shift, ANZ was aligned with CBA, NAB, and Westpac in forecasting a cut this November. A look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within a very mild descending channel formation or a range between 0.6577 and 0.6690. A decisive break above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before breaking 0.6709 could indicate an extension higher to a target at 0.6713. A decisive break below the range floor could indicate a follow-through to at least 0.6556.
by BlackBull_Markets
AUD/USD slides on weak Australian data, GDP nextThe Australian dollar continues to swing sharply this week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6641 in the North American session, down 0.71% on the day. The downswing has wiped out the Aussie’s gains of 0.55% on Monday. Australia posted weak data earlier today, which has weighed on the Australian dollar. Corporate profits declined 2.5% q/q in the first quarter after revised growth of 7.1% in the fourth quarter. This was well short of the market estimate of -0.9%. On an annualized basis, corporate profits plunged 8.6%, marking a fourth straight quarter of contraction. Australia also posted a current account deficit of AUD 4.9 billion in the first quarter, after a revised surplus of AUD 2.7 billion in Q4 2023. This missed the market estimate of a surplus of AUD 5.9 billion. The trade surplus fell as imports rose and exports declined, as metal ore prices fell. Today’s silver lining was an improvement in retail sales, which rebounded with a small gain of 0.1% m/m in April, after a -0.4% reading in March Australia’s GDP is expected to fall to 1.2% y/y in the fourth quarter, compared to 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023. GDP is expected to show weak growth of 0.2% q/q in the first quarter, unchanged from Q4 2023. Consumer spending has been soft as consumers grapple with high interest rates and stubborn inflation. The March GDP data is expected to indicate that Australia narrowly avoided a recession. Normally, such an economic landscape would likely result in the Reserve Bank of Australia lowering rates in order to kick-start the limping economy. However, with inflation stickier than anticipated, the RBA is likely to wait before easing up on interest rates and hasn’t ruled out rate hikes in order to keep a lid on inflation. The RBA meets next on June 18th. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6641. Below, there is support at 0.6603 0.6692 and 0.6730 are the next resistance lines
by fisherkj4
AUD/USD rises after retail sales tick higherThe Australian dollar has edged higher on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6667, up 0.25% on the day at the time of writing. Australia’s retail sales rise 0.1%, CPI next Australian consumers remain frugal and cautious, as retail sales rose just 0.1% m/m April. This was a rebound from the 0.4% decline in March and beat the market estimate of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, retail sales rose 1.3%, compared to 0.9% in March. Retail activity has been flat and that could prod the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower interest rates later this year. The RBA has held the cash rate at 4.35% for four straight times and the markets are anticipating that the next move will be a cut. However, the RBA has sounded hawkish and the RBA minutes of the May 7th meeting indicated that policy makers discussed a rate hike at the May 7th meeting. This was due to concerns that inflation, particularly services prices has been stickier than expected and that the path to the RBA’s 2-3% target will not be smooth. Australia releases April CPI early on Wednesday, which is expected to tick lower to 3.4% y/y, down from 3.5% in March. Fed members continue to send out a hawkish message about rate policy. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday that he would want to see “many more months of positive inflation data” before the Fed lowers rates, adding that a rate hike should not be ruled out. Kashakri said earlier this month that rates need to stay in restrictive territory for “an extended period”. The markets are more dovish and have priced in a rate cut at 52%, according to the CME’s FedWatch. AUD/USD Technical 0.6643 is a weak support level. Below, there is support at 0.6578 0.6695 and 0.6760 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Policy Divergence: BoC and RBNZ Take Opposing PathsGreetings Traders, In today's trading session, our focus is on NZDCAD, where we see a promising buying opportunity emerging around the 0.83500 zone. NZDCAD has been traversing a downtrend but is currently undergoing a correction phase, drawing nearer to the retrace area near the 0.83500 support and resistance zone. Adding depth to our analysis, recent fundamental developments are worth noting. Just yesterday, the Canadian CPI figures came in softer than anticipated. Meanwhile, during the night, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) issued some notably hawkish guidance. This sets an interesting stage: while the Bank of Canada (BoC) is poised to initiate rate cuts come June, the RBNZ appears to be steering clear of such measures for the time being. This subtle policy divergence introduces a compelling dynamic that suggests NZDCAD may continue its upward trajectory. In summary, the confluence of technical retracement and fundamental policy disparities presents an opportune moment for traders to consider a bullish stance on NZDCAD.
Long
by JoeChampion
Australian dollar eyes RBA minutesThe Australian dollar is unchanged at the time of writing, trading at 0.6692 in the European session. There are no economic releases out of the US or Australia today, which should translate into a quiet day for AUD/USD. The Aussie is coming off an excellent week, gaining 1.36% and hitting its highest level since January. In the month of May, AUD/USD has surged 3.4%. Tuesday will be busier, with the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing the minutes of the policy meeting earlier this month. At that meeting, there were no surprises as the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% for a fourth straight time. Notably, the central bank discussed the possibility of a rate hike at the meeting, which was not the case at the March meeting. This was likely a response to first-quarter CPI, which was slightly higher than expected. CPI fell from 4.1% to 3.6%, missing the forecast of 3.5%. Service inflation remains sticky, which means that CPI is expected to continue to ease, but slowly. RBA policy makers are concerned that the path to the 2% inflation target will be bumpy and are hesitant to start lowering rates until they see evidence of sustainable price stability. The fact that a rate hike is on the table, albeit an unlikely scenario, indicates that the RBA remains cautious and somewhat hawkish, and a rate cut will have to wait until inflation shows a substantial decline. Australia will also release Westpac Consumer Sentiment on Tuesday. The index has declined two straight times and remains in negative territory as consumers remain surly about high interest rates and the high cost of living. The May release is expected to show an improvement, with a market estimate of a 0.9% gain. AUD/USD has support at 0.6681 and 0.6662 0.6714 and 0.6733 are the next resistance lines
LSE:CPI
by OANDA