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RBA

AUDUSD: Add to long term longs, nice short term opportunityAUDUSD has a very bullish long term, intermediate term, and short term chart. We can add to our core positions, if we make a new daily high. We can also take a short term trade once that happens, with a tight stop at the previous daily bar's close. Target is roughly 0.77 for the short term position, and over 0.8350 for the long term entries. Long term positions were entered earlier, and recently averaged at lower levels, refer to my previous publications. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
AUDUSD: Huge breakout, similar to copper and iron oreWe have a potential breakout of considerable scale in the Aussie dollar chart. I'd highly reccomend entering longs if not in, you can risk either 3 times the daily ATR for the long term, or use Friday's low as your stop, more aggressively. The target is the 0.8350 handle, to be confirmed after the bi-weekly time at mode signal on chart confirms. For now, it's not yet confirmed, but highly likely, so we can get in early on. I'm adding a shorter term entry here, on a break of Friday's high, with stops under Friday's low, to complement my longer term position in this pair. Check out my copper forecast in the related ideas, as well as the oil an commodity index charts. We're in the brink of a massive move, that if confirmed, can be ridiculously profitable for all of us if it pans out like I expect it to. This also ties nicely with China's inclusion in the SDR basket today, OPEC's deal, fears of Deutsche Bank's failure dissipated, and Australia's fundamentals overall. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13
AUDUSD: RBA key levels analysisAUDUSD gives us plenty of clues whenever we record the key levels after major monetary policy changes or simply news related to the RBA. If we check these levels, also paying attention to levels generated from international events, like Fed news, or events like Brexit, we can get a clear picture of what is more likely to happen and what price has to do to sustain a bearish or bullish bias. If you have any questions let me know. For now, we're long, you can refer to my previous publication. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
AUDUSD: Key Hidden Levels and Linear regression analysisAUDUSD found support at the upper deviation of the recent downtrend's linear regression channel today. This level coincides with the mid point of the recent VIX 75% retracement, or 'smart money buying spree' key level, which happens after VIX spikes by 5 points or more, and the smart money 'buys the dip' in risk assets, making VIX retrace 75% of its recent climb, reducing option volatility, calming the market and putting a floor below the recent sell off lows. This range, gives 3 levels to monitor on retest, and that's what we have here. Let's see if bulls step in and drive price above resistance, else, the downtrend in AUDUSD will resume. We can enter longs here, or on a new daily high to be more conservative, risking a new daily low. Keep risk at 1% or less. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
FX portfolio: Long AUDUSD on a breakout of last session's highWe have a nice setup in AUDUSD, although of lower probability than the others I posted today, since the longer term trend signals on chart aren't confirmed yet. Interestingly, price bottomed at the June 24th's session low...rings a bell? We can extrapolate the signals from commodities, to the ones in FX pairs, and take the daily chart signals as an excuse to join this potential massive trades yet to be confirmed. Keep risk below 2% if you take it. After the daily oscillators get overbought, we can trim the position, trail stops, or simply exit. But, since we speculate on this eventually confirming a higher timeframe uptrend signal, we'll only close half the position on a new daily low after CCI goes above +100, and trail stops to entry on the rest of the position. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
RBA MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS - GBPAUD AUSSIEAs expected the RBA deciced to keep the OCR unchanged at 150bps. 30D Aussie bank bills implied only a 2% chance of a cut, down from the 10% we saw several weeks ago. There were few hints as to further policy, and it certainly feels as if the calls/ rhetoric for further cuts has been dampened in recent meetings following the august reduction. As well as in recent weeks, sentiment from the insto/ macro community has also shifted towards 2017 cuts vs 2016 which was previously a consensus view. I remain bearish on aussie crosses, as I expect another leg lower towards 1.00 for audnzd which should maintain aussie supply across currencies as I expect kiwi to be picked up a the headline G10 yield ccy. The fundamentals (inflation, growth, employment, housing) of aussie and kiwi remain very similar, but the rate differential is 25-50bps in NZDs favour thus imo its difficult to justify audnzd being worth less than parity. up here at 1.05 thus the leg lower towards 1.00 (my 1-2yr average) would realise firm cross market aussie supply. Short aussie positioning should be taken once AUDNZD has confirmed the leg lower (e.g. this topside correction fades with some daily closes lower/ downside structure forms in lower lows/ lower highs on meaningful timeframe(s). My preferred cross is GBPAUD longs as i have discussed before I feel STG is heavily undervalued in the medium term - though this renewed brexit selling needs to be watched in the immediate term (which works nicely to give time for AUDNZD to restart on the offer). GBPAUD has structure right until 1.40 2013 lows so there is plenty of room for further GBP selling until this trade moves into uncharted territories (unlike GBPNZD which has just cracked all time lows). USD longs are on the risky side going into election & with the finger less fed. RBA MonPol Decision: RBA SAYS GLOBAL ECONOMY GROWING AT LOWER THAN AVERAGE PACE - Judged Steady Rate Consistent With Growth, Inflation Targets - Pace Of China Growth Appears To Be Moderating - Rising A$ Could Complicate Economic Adjustment - Inflation Expected To Remain Low For Some Time - Australian Economy Growing At Moderate Rate - Labour Market Data Mixed, Sees Continued Growth In Employment - Inflation Expected To Remain Low For Some Time - Lenders Taking More Cautious Attitude To Housing - Large Decline In Mining Investment Being Offset By Growth In Other Areas - Says Household Consumption Growing At Reasonable Pace But Appears To Have Slowed Recently RBA SAYS INFLATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME RBA SAYS PACE OF CHINA GROWTH APPEARS TO BE MODERATING RBA SAYS JUDGED STEADY RATE CONSISTENT WITH GROWTH, INFLATION TARGETS RBA SAYS GLOBAL ECONOMY GROWING AT LOWER THAN AVERAGE PACE RBA SAYS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION GROWING AT REASONABLE PACE BUT APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED RECENTLY RBA SAYS LARGE DECLINE IN MINING INVESTMENT BEING OFFSET BY GROWTH IN OTHER AREAS RBA SAYS LENDERS TAKING MORE CAUTIOUS ATTITUDE TO HOUSINGRBA SAYS LABOUR MARKET DATA MIXED, SEES CONTINUED GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT RBA SAYS AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY GROWING AT MODERATE RATE RBA SAYS INFLATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME RBA SAYS RISING A$ COULD COMPLICATE ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
RBA MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS - GBPAUD AUSSIEAs expected the RBA deciced to keep the OCR unchanged at 150bps. 30D Aussie bank bills implied only a 2% chance of a cut, down from the 10% we saw several weeks ago. There were few hints as to further policy, and it certainly feels as if the calls/ rhetoric for further cuts has been dampened in recent meetings following the august reduction. As well as in recent weeks, sentiment from the insto/ macro community has also shifted towards 2017 cuts vs 2016 which was previously a consensus view. I remain bearish on aussie crosses, as I expect another leg lower towards 1.00 for audnzd which should maintain aussie supply across currencies as I expect kiwi to be picked up a the headline G10 yield ccy. The fundamentals (inflation, growth, employment, housing) of aussie and kiwi remain very similar, but the rate differential is 25-50bps in NZDs favour thus imo its difficult to justify audnzd being worth less than parity. up here at 1.05 thus the leg lower towards 1.00 (my 1-2yr average) would realise firm cross market aussie supply. Short aussie positioning should be taken once AUDNZD has confirmed the leg lower (e.g. this topside correction fades with some daily closes lower/ downside structure forms in lower lows/ lower highs on meaningful timeframe(s). My preferred cross is GBPAUD longs as i have discussed before I feel STG is heavily undervalued in the medium term - though this renewed brexit selling needs to be watched in the immediate term (which works nicely to give time for AUDNZD to restart on the offer). GBPAUD has structure right until 1.40 2013 lows so there is plenty of room for further GBP selling until this trade moves into uncharted territories (unlike GBPNZD which has just cracked all time lows). USD longs are on the risky side going into election & with the finger less fed. RBA MonPol Decision: RBA SAYS GLOBAL ECONOMY GROWING AT LOWER THAN AVERAGE PACE - Judged Steady Rate Consistent With Growth, Inflation Targets - Pace Of China Growth Appears To Be Moderating - Rising A$ Could Complicate Economic Adjustment - Inflation Expected To Remain Low For Some Time - Australian Economy Growing At Moderate Rate - Labour Market Data Mixed, Sees Continued Growth In Employment - Inflation Expected To Remain Low For Some Time - Lenders Taking More Cautious Attitude To Housing - Large Decline In Mining Investment Being Offset By Growth In Other Areas - Says Household Consumption Growing At Reasonable Pace But Appears To Have Slowed Recently RBA SAYS INFLATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME RBA SAYS PACE OF CHINA GROWTH APPEARS TO BE MODERATING RBA SAYS JUDGED STEADY RATE CONSISTENT WITH GROWTH, INFLATION TARGETS RBA SAYS GLOBAL ECONOMY GROWING AT LOWER THAN AVERAGE PACE RBA SAYS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION GROWING AT REASONABLE PACE BUT APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED RECENTLY RBA SAYS LARGE DECLINE IN MINING INVESTMENT BEING OFFSET BY GROWTH IN OTHER AREAS RBA SAYS LENDERS TAKING MORE CAUTIOUS ATTITUDE TO HOUSINGRBA SAYS LABOUR MARKET DATA MIXED, SEES CONTINUED GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT RBA SAYS AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY GROWING AT MODERATE RATE RBA SAYS INFLATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME RBA SAYS RISING A$ COULD COMPLICATE ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
LONG EURAUD - STRAT TRADE: 99.13% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALLong EURAUD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) EURAUD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.87%, hence there is a implied 99.13% chance of reversal on the daily. Trading Strategy: 1. Buy EURAUD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower. TP is the next daily close higher. Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
SHORT AUDNZD - STRAT TRADE: 99.5% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALSHORT AUDNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) AUDNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1.045 level. Trading Strategy: 1. Sell AUDNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower (it could be several days). TP is the next/ First daily close higher. Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
8
LONG EURAUD - STRAT TRADE: 99.13% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALLong EURAUD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) EURAUD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.87%, hence there is a implied 99.13% chance of reversal on the daily. Trading Strategy: 1. Buy EURAUD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower. TP is the next daily close higher. Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
SHORT AUDNZD - STRAT TRADE: 99.5% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALSHORT AUDNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) AUDNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1.045 level. Trading Strategy: 1. Sell AUDNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower (it could be several days). TP is the next/ First daily close higher. Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
RBA ASSIST GOV LOWE SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - AUDUSD AUDJPY EURAUD* Gov Lowe speech Highlights: -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME, BUT THEN TO GRADUALLY PICK UP AS LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR VIEW IS THAT A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION TARGET REMAINS THE RIGHT MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM TARGET IS THE BEST WAY FOR US TO DELIVER LOW AND STABLE INFLATION IN A WAY THAT CONTRIBUTES TO OUR OTHER BROAD RESPONSIBILITIES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY LOW INTEREST RATES AND THE DEPRECIATION OF THE EXCHANGE RATE SINCE EARLY 2013 -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS HOUSING SITUATION IS SOMEWHAT MORE COMFORTABLE THAN IT WAS A YEAR AGO, ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THINGS CAREFULLY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR JUDGEMENT IS THAT PAST EASING IN MONETARY POLICY IS SUPPORTING JOBS AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS BOARD VERY CONSCIOUS THAT RATE CUTS MEAN LOWER INTEREST INCOME FOR SAVERS  -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS THE ECONOMY IS ADJUSTING REASONABLY WELL TO THE UNWINDING OF THE BIGGEST MINING INVESTMENT BOOM IN MORE THAN A CENTURY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS RECENT GDP DATA A LITTLE ABOVE MOST ESTIMATES OF TREND GROWTH IN OUR ECONOMY.  -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  STORY ON INCOME GROWTH HAS BEEN LESS POSITIVE, WITH GROWTH IN NOMINAL GDP BEING DISAPPOINTING -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS IMPORTANTLY, THE DRAG FROM THE FALL IN MINING INVESTMENT WILL COME TO AN END -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LOW WAGE GROWTH AND LOWER COMMODITY PRICES HAVE MEANT THAT CPI INFLATION HAS BEEN QUITE LOW OVER RECENT TIMES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  IF THESE INCREASES WERE TO BE SUSTAINED THEN WE COULD LOOK FORWARD TO THE DRAG ON NATIONAL INCOME FROM FALLING COMMODITY PRICES COMING TO AN END -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS RECENT NEWS ON COMMODITY PRICES HAS BEEN A BIT MORE POSITIVE THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR A WHILE -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION GROWTH HAS BEEN OK, NOT FAR FROM TREND -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS A LOWER AUD WOULD BE HELPFUL -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS , BUT OF COURSE MOST CENTRAL BANKS WOULD LIKE LOWER CURRENCIES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS UNDERSTANDABLE WHY AUD HAS RISEN OVER RECENT MONTHS, BUT GOOD IF A BIT LOWER -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LABOUR MARKET STORY POSITIVE OVERALL, CAN LOOK FORWARD TO REASONABLE JOBS GROWTH -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LABOUR MARKET NOT AS STRONG AS HEADLINE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SUGGESTS -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS VERY UNLIKELY RBA WILL RUN OUT OF POLICY ROOM -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS GOVERNMENT COULD USE BALANCE SHEET TO BORROW TO FUND INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS WOULD BE WATCHING MARKET REACTION SHOULD TRUMP BE ELECTED -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULAR CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR MARKETS SHOULD DONALD TRUMP BE ELECTED US PRESIDENT -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS FURTHER CUT IN RATES IS POSSIBLE, DEPENDS ON WHOLE RANGE OF FACTORS -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS POCKETS OF SPARE CAPACITY IN CHINESE ECONOMY, BUT DO NOT WANT TO OVERSTATE THE PROBLEMS
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
RBA ASSIST GOV LOWE SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - AUDUSD AUDJPY EURAUD Gov Lowe speech Highlights: -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME, BUT THEN TO GRADUALLY PICK UP AS LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR VIEW IS THAT A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION TARGET REMAINS THE RIGHT MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM TARGET IS THE BEST WAY FOR US TO DELIVER LOW AND STABLE INFLATION IN A WAY THAT CONTRIBUTES TO OUR OTHER BROAD RESPONSIBILITIES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY LOW INTEREST RATES AND THE DEPRECIATION OF THE EXCHANGE RATE SINCE EARLY 2013 -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS HOUSING SITUATION IS SOMEWHAT MORE COMFORTABLE THAN IT WAS A YEAR AGO, ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THINGS CAREFULLY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR JUDGEMENT IS THAT PAST EASING IN MONETARY POLICY IS SUPPORTING JOBS AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS BOARD VERY CONSCIOUS THAT RATE CUTS MEAN LOWER INTEREST INCOME FOR SAVERS  -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS THE ECONOMY IS ADJUSTING REASONABLY WELL TO THE UNWINDING OF THE BIGGEST MINING INVESTMENT BOOM IN MORE THAN A CENTURY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS RECENT GDP DATA A LITTLE ABOVE MOST ESTIMATES OF TREND GROWTH IN OUR ECONOMY.  -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  STORY ON INCOME GROWTH HAS BEEN LESS POSITIVE, WITH GROWTH IN NOMINAL GDP BEING DISAPPOINTING -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS IMPORTANTLY, THE DRAG FROM THE FALL IN MINING INVESTMENT WILL COME TO AN END -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LOW WAGE GROWTH AND LOWER COMMODITY PRICES HAVE MEANT THAT CPI INFLATION HAS BEEN QUITE LOW OVER RECENT TIMES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  IF THESE INCREASES WERE TO BE SUSTAINED THEN WE COULD LOOK FORWARD TO THE DRAG ON NATIONAL INCOME FROM FALLING COMMODITY PRICES COMING TO AN END -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS RECENT NEWS ON COMMODITY PRICES HAS BEEN A BIT MORE POSITIVE THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR A WHILE -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION GROWTH HAS BEEN OK, NOT FAR FROM TREND -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS A LOWER AUD WOULD BE HELPFUL -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS , BUT OF COURSE MOST CENTRAL BANKS WOULD LIKE LOWER CURRENCIES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS UNDERSTANDABLE WHY AUD HAS RISEN OVER RECENT MONTHS, BUT GOOD IF A BIT LOWER -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LABOUR MARKET STORY POSITIVE OVERALL, CAN LOOK FORWARD TO REASONABLE JOBS GROWTH -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LABOUR MARKET NOT AS STRONG AS HEADLINE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SUGGESTS -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS VERY UNLIKELY RBA WILL RUN OUT OF POLICY ROOM -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS GOVERNMENT COULD USE BALANCE SHEET TO BORROW TO FUND INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS WOULD BE WATCHING MARKET REACTION SHOULD TRUMP BE ELECTED -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULAR CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR MARKETS SHOULD DONALD TRUMP BE ELECTED US PRESIDENT -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS FURTHER CUT IN RATES IS POSSIBLE, DEPENDS ON WHOLE RANGE OF FACTORS -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS POCKETS OF SPARE CAPACITY IN CHINESE ECONOMY, BUT DO NOT WANT TO OVERSTATE THE PROBLEMS
by QuantumLogicTrading
AUSSIE - AUDUSD: RBA MINUTES HIGHLIGHTSRBA minutes broadly neutral on the margin. Aussie rates (30 day bills) are implying a 5% chance of an October 25bps cut. In general we've seen aussie rates firm up, with 30d bills moving from 7% last week and 9% the week before to now 5%, this firming/ steepening has been the general consensus further along the maturity curve where rate cut hopes are diminishing in AUD as speculation regarding a nearing RBA terminal rate/ housing market issues dampening expectations. Feb/ March 2017 is where we see a "dip" in rates or a spike in cut hopes, with there currently being 12/13bps of cuts into these dates - there seems to be an accumulation of institutional macro expectations of an RBA cut in March. Beyond here we see diminishing basis point cuts:time with the May to July differential being only 1bps (from -16bps in May to -17bps in Jun/ July). The driver for AUDUSD will likely be FED/ USD induced. AUD will provide a firm base, but has continued risk of cross selling from AUDNZD as kiwi at 2.00% remains the leading G10 carry trade. Both kiwi and aussie have the ability to push higher and maintain these higher levels if the fed confirms one hike this year, which puts the fed a hike behind the curve. RBA MINUTES: JUDGED CURRENT STANCE OF POLICY CONSISTENT WITH GROWTH, INFLATION TARGETS - Steady Decision Took Into Account Rate Cuts In May And August, Recent Data - Estimated Around Half Of The August Rate Cut Had Been Passed On To Bank Customers - Repeats Rising A$ Would Complicate Economic Rebalancing - Decline In A$ Since 2013 Continued To Support Traded Sector Of Economy - Data Suggest Economy Growing In Line With Potential - Forward Indicators Consistent With Little Change In Unemployment Rate In Coming Months - Cost Pressures, Wage Growth Set To Remain Low For Some Time - Conditions In Established Housing Market Had Generally Eased, House Price Growth Moderated - High Home Building Approvals Pointed To Significant Amount Of Work In Pipeline - Economic Drag From Falling Mining Investment Looked To Have Peaked In 2015/16
by QuantumLogicTrading
AUSSIE - AUDUSD: RBA MINUTES HIGHLIGHTSRBA MINUTES: JUDGED CURRENT STANCE OF POLICY CONSISTENT WITH GROWTH, INFLATION TARGETS - Steady Decision Took Into Account Rate Cuts In May And August, Recent Data - Estimated Around Half Of The August Rate Cut Had Been Passed On To Bank Customers - Repeats Rising A$ Would Complicate Economic Rebalancing - Decline In A$ Since 2013 Continued To Support Traded Sector Of Economy - Data Suggest Economy Growing In Line With Potential - Forward Indicators Consistent With Little Change In Unemployment Rate In Coming Months - Cost Pressures, Wage Growth Set To Remain Low For Some Time - Conditions In Established Housing Market Had Generally Eased, House Price Growth Moderated - High Home Building Approvals Pointed To Significant Amount Of Work In Pipeline - Economic Drag From Falling Mining Investment Looked To Have Peaked In 2015/16
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
AUDCAD: Good chance to longWe can take this long here, risking a drop under 0.97612. Target is not set in stone, but watch how it evolves. We're testing a critical support level, but also facing considerable resistance, so we might have to be patient. I still think the trend will continue to be up, so, not a huge concern to hold this. Good luck! Ivan Labrie. PS: I had a moderator comment on my publication format, for now, I'm keeping it brief, but message me if interested in my services. I will post trades on and off, but there are quite a few I reserve for my private clients.
Long
by IvanLabrie
SHORT GBPNZD: CARRY TO OUTPERFORM; LOWER BOE EQUILIBRIUM?GBPNZD: 1. Wanted to repost my view on GBPNZD - remain short on rallies here into 1.82 with a 1.80, 200pip target. 2. This whole week weve remained strictly rangebound and sterling kiwi has paid every time (about 10) on shorts at the 1.810 level so i will continue this view at 1.82 given: 1) NZD carry continues to be the highest in G10 so Kiwi demand will likely hold up for the foreseeable future especially on BOE fwd guidance - though UK data outperforming in the near term could continue to put sterling topside pressure though the long game i dont expect this to last. 2) Sterling looks overbrought on the daily at these levels some 400pips higher than BOE monpol lows, here imo is the true home for GBPNZD given I expected the lean for further easing to be on BOE vs RBNZ as kiwi house prices will continue to prevent aggressive easing (as Wheeler pointed out earlier this week - rapid easing isnt going to happen). Risks: 1. Technically, on sterling demand I think risk is to the 1.83 resistance level, I dont think sterlingkiwi has much more given the amount of resistance we have found down at 1.81. 2. AUDNZD Re-balancing - there looks like there may be a AUDNZD rebalancing higher after 2wks of selling, this could shift GBPAUD aussie shorts into kiwi shorts vs GBP, though the AUDNZD movement higher looks to be struggling to gain traction given the differential of 50bps remains the bottom line, and weak fwd guidance from both RBA and RBNZ makes it difficult to differerentite the two (not to mention aussie data has been less firm in recent times vs kiwi). 3. UK PMI - UK PMIs next week, if outperforming will likely give GBP bulls more fuel to own sterling, given it is economic revisions recently higher that has been the fundamental reason for sterling topside - so further leading indications from PMIs could continue this trend, though given the move already higher, 1.82 could be the ceiling here (though watch out for a AUDNZD equilibrium higher which would make gbpnzd move through 1.82). If the PMIs were to show any figure above 50, expect an aggressive 300pip+ movement higher. 4. USD hiking risk - USD strength will cause NZD yield seeking supply as investors shift into USD markets instead.. as we have seen today with the spike higher, continued USD rate performance will drag on NZD longs in the medium term.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading