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LONG EURAUD - STRAT TRADE: 99.13% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALLong EURAUD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) EURAUD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.87%, hence there is a implied 99.13% chance of reversal on the daily. Trading Strategy: 1. Buy EURAUD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower. TP is the next daily close higher. Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
SHORT AUDNZD - STRAT TRADE: 99.5% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALSHORT AUDNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) AUDNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1.045 level. Trading Strategy: 1. Sell AUDNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower (it could be several days). TP is the next/ First daily close higher. Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
RBA ASSIST GOV LOWE SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - AUDUSD AUDJPY EURAUD* Gov Lowe speech Highlights: -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME, BUT THEN TO GRADUALLY PICK UP AS LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR VIEW IS THAT A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION TARGET REMAINS THE RIGHT MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM TARGET IS THE BEST WAY FOR US TO DELIVER LOW AND STABLE INFLATION IN A WAY THAT CONTRIBUTES TO OUR OTHER BROAD RESPONSIBILITIES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY LOW INTEREST RATES AND THE DEPRECIATION OF THE EXCHANGE RATE SINCE EARLY 2013 -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS HOUSING SITUATION IS SOMEWHAT MORE COMFORTABLE THAN IT WAS A YEAR AGO, ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THINGS CAREFULLY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR JUDGEMENT IS THAT PAST EASING IN MONETARY POLICY IS SUPPORTING JOBS AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS BOARD VERY CONSCIOUS THAT RATE CUTS MEAN LOWER INTEREST INCOME FOR SAVERS  -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS THE ECONOMY IS ADJUSTING REASONABLY WELL TO THE UNWINDING OF THE BIGGEST MINING INVESTMENT BOOM IN MORE THAN A CENTURY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS RECENT GDP DATA A LITTLE ABOVE MOST ESTIMATES OF TREND GROWTH IN OUR ECONOMY.  -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  STORY ON INCOME GROWTH HAS BEEN LESS POSITIVE, WITH GROWTH IN NOMINAL GDP BEING DISAPPOINTING -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS IMPORTANTLY, THE DRAG FROM THE FALL IN MINING INVESTMENT WILL COME TO AN END -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LOW WAGE GROWTH AND LOWER COMMODITY PRICES HAVE MEANT THAT CPI INFLATION HAS BEEN QUITE LOW OVER RECENT TIMES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  IF THESE INCREASES WERE TO BE SUSTAINED THEN WE COULD LOOK FORWARD TO THE DRAG ON NATIONAL INCOME FROM FALLING COMMODITY PRICES COMING TO AN END -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS RECENT NEWS ON COMMODITY PRICES HAS BEEN A BIT MORE POSITIVE THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR A WHILE -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION GROWTH HAS BEEN OK, NOT FAR FROM TREND -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS A LOWER AUD WOULD BE HELPFUL -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS , BUT OF COURSE MOST CENTRAL BANKS WOULD LIKE LOWER CURRENCIES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS UNDERSTANDABLE WHY AUD HAS RISEN OVER RECENT MONTHS, BUT GOOD IF A BIT LOWER -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LABOUR MARKET STORY POSITIVE OVERALL, CAN LOOK FORWARD TO REASONABLE JOBS GROWTH -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LABOUR MARKET NOT AS STRONG AS HEADLINE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SUGGESTS -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS VERY UNLIKELY RBA WILL RUN OUT OF POLICY ROOM -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS GOVERNMENT COULD USE BALANCE SHEET TO BORROW TO FUND INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS WOULD BE WATCHING MARKET REACTION SHOULD TRUMP BE ELECTED -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULAR CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR MARKETS SHOULD DONALD TRUMP BE ELECTED US PRESIDENT -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS FURTHER CUT IN RATES IS POSSIBLE, DEPENDS ON WHOLE RANGE OF FACTORS -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS POCKETS OF SPARE CAPACITY IN CHINESE ECONOMY, BUT DO NOT WANT TO OVERSTATE THE PROBLEMS
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
RBA ASSIST GOV LOWE SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - AUDUSD AUDJPY EURAUD Gov Lowe speech Highlights: -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME, BUT THEN TO GRADUALLY PICK UP AS LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR VIEW IS THAT A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION TARGET REMAINS THE RIGHT MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM TARGET IS THE BEST WAY FOR US TO DELIVER LOW AND STABLE INFLATION IN A WAY THAT CONTRIBUTES TO OUR OTHER BROAD RESPONSIBILITIES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY LOW INTEREST RATES AND THE DEPRECIATION OF THE EXCHANGE RATE SINCE EARLY 2013 -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS HOUSING SITUATION IS SOMEWHAT MORE COMFORTABLE THAN IT WAS A YEAR AGO, ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THINGS CAREFULLY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR JUDGEMENT IS THAT PAST EASING IN MONETARY POLICY IS SUPPORTING JOBS AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS BOARD VERY CONSCIOUS THAT RATE CUTS MEAN LOWER INTEREST INCOME FOR SAVERS  -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS THE ECONOMY IS ADJUSTING REASONABLY WELL TO THE UNWINDING OF THE BIGGEST MINING INVESTMENT BOOM IN MORE THAN A CENTURY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS RECENT GDP DATA A LITTLE ABOVE MOST ESTIMATES OF TREND GROWTH IN OUR ECONOMY.  -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  STORY ON INCOME GROWTH HAS BEEN LESS POSITIVE, WITH GROWTH IN NOMINAL GDP BEING DISAPPOINTING -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS IMPORTANTLY, THE DRAG FROM THE FALL IN MINING INVESTMENT WILL COME TO AN END -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LOW WAGE GROWTH AND LOWER COMMODITY PRICES HAVE MEANT THAT CPI INFLATION HAS BEEN QUITE LOW OVER RECENT TIMES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  IF THESE INCREASES WERE TO BE SUSTAINED THEN WE COULD LOOK FORWARD TO THE DRAG ON NATIONAL INCOME FROM FALLING COMMODITY PRICES COMING TO AN END -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS RECENT NEWS ON COMMODITY PRICES HAS BEEN A BIT MORE POSITIVE THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR A WHILE -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION GROWTH HAS BEEN OK, NOT FAR FROM TREND -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS A LOWER AUD WOULD BE HELPFUL -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS , BUT OF COURSE MOST CENTRAL BANKS WOULD LIKE LOWER CURRENCIES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS UNDERSTANDABLE WHY AUD HAS RISEN OVER RECENT MONTHS, BUT GOOD IF A BIT LOWER -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LABOUR MARKET STORY POSITIVE OVERALL, CAN LOOK FORWARD TO REASONABLE JOBS GROWTH -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LABOUR MARKET NOT AS STRONG AS HEADLINE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SUGGESTS -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS VERY UNLIKELY RBA WILL RUN OUT OF POLICY ROOM -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS GOVERNMENT COULD USE BALANCE SHEET TO BORROW TO FUND INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS WOULD BE WATCHING MARKET REACTION SHOULD TRUMP BE ELECTED -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULAR CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR MARKETS SHOULD DONALD TRUMP BE ELECTED US PRESIDENT -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS FURTHER CUT IN RATES IS POSSIBLE, DEPENDS ON WHOLE RANGE OF FACTORS -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS POCKETS OF SPARE CAPACITY IN CHINESE ECONOMY, BUT DO NOT WANT TO OVERSTATE THE PROBLEMS
by QuantumLogicTrading
AUSSIE - AUDUSD: RBA MINUTES HIGHLIGHTSRBA minutes broadly neutral on the margin. Aussie rates (30 day bills) are implying a 5% chance of an October 25bps cut. In general we've seen aussie rates firm up, with 30d bills moving from 7% last week and 9% the week before to now 5%, this firming/ steepening has been the general consensus further along the maturity curve where rate cut hopes are diminishing in AUD as speculation regarding a nearing RBA terminal rate/ housing market issues dampening expectations. Feb/ March 2017 is where we see a "dip" in rates or a spike in cut hopes, with there currently being 12/13bps of cuts into these dates - there seems to be an accumulation of institutional macro expectations of an RBA cut in March. Beyond here we see diminishing basis point cuts:time with the May to July differential being only 1bps (from -16bps in May to -17bps in Jun/ July). The driver for AUDUSD will likely be FED/ USD induced. AUD will provide a firm base, but has continued risk of cross selling from AUDNZD as kiwi at 2.00% remains the leading G10 carry trade. Both kiwi and aussie have the ability to push higher and maintain these higher levels if the fed confirms one hike this year, which puts the fed a hike behind the curve. RBA MINUTES: JUDGED CURRENT STANCE OF POLICY CONSISTENT WITH GROWTH, INFLATION TARGETS - Steady Decision Took Into Account Rate Cuts In May And August, Recent Data - Estimated Around Half Of The August Rate Cut Had Been Passed On To Bank Customers - Repeats Rising A$ Would Complicate Economic Rebalancing - Decline In A$ Since 2013 Continued To Support Traded Sector Of Economy - Data Suggest Economy Growing In Line With Potential - Forward Indicators Consistent With Little Change In Unemployment Rate In Coming Months - Cost Pressures, Wage Growth Set To Remain Low For Some Time - Conditions In Established Housing Market Had Generally Eased, House Price Growth Moderated - High Home Building Approvals Pointed To Significant Amount Of Work In Pipeline - Economic Drag From Falling Mining Investment Looked To Have Peaked In 2015/16
by QuantumLogicTrading
AUSSIE - AUDUSD: RBA MINUTES HIGHLIGHTSRBA MINUTES: JUDGED CURRENT STANCE OF POLICY CONSISTENT WITH GROWTH, INFLATION TARGETS - Steady Decision Took Into Account Rate Cuts In May And August, Recent Data - Estimated Around Half Of The August Rate Cut Had Been Passed On To Bank Customers - Repeats Rising A$ Would Complicate Economic Rebalancing - Decline In A$ Since 2013 Continued To Support Traded Sector Of Economy - Data Suggest Economy Growing In Line With Potential - Forward Indicators Consistent With Little Change In Unemployment Rate In Coming Months - Cost Pressures, Wage Growth Set To Remain Low For Some Time - Conditions In Established Housing Market Had Generally Eased, House Price Growth Moderated - High Home Building Approvals Pointed To Significant Amount Of Work In Pipeline - Economic Drag From Falling Mining Investment Looked To Have Peaked In 2015/16
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
AUDCAD: Good chance to longWe can take this long here, risking a drop under 0.97612. Target is not set in stone, but watch how it evolves. We're testing a critical support level, but also facing considerable resistance, so we might have to be patient. I still think the trend will continue to be up, so, not a huge concern to hold this. Good luck! Ivan Labrie. PS: I had a moderator comment on my publication format, for now, I'm keeping it brief, but message me if interested in my services. I will post trades on and off, but there are quite a few I reserve for my private clients.
Long
by IvanLabrie
SHORT GBPNZD: CARRY TO OUTPERFORM; LOWER BOE EQUILIBRIUM?GBPNZD: 1. Wanted to repost my view on GBPNZD - remain short on rallies here into 1.82 with a 1.80, 200pip target. 2. This whole week weve remained strictly rangebound and sterling kiwi has paid every time (about 10) on shorts at the 1.810 level so i will continue this view at 1.82 given: 1) NZD carry continues to be the highest in G10 so Kiwi demand will likely hold up for the foreseeable future especially on BOE fwd guidance - though UK data outperforming in the near term could continue to put sterling topside pressure though the long game i dont expect this to last. 2) Sterling looks overbrought on the daily at these levels some 400pips higher than BOE monpol lows, here imo is the true home for GBPNZD given I expected the lean for further easing to be on BOE vs RBNZ as kiwi house prices will continue to prevent aggressive easing (as Wheeler pointed out earlier this week - rapid easing isnt going to happen). Risks: 1. Technically, on sterling demand I think risk is to the 1.83 resistance level, I dont think sterlingkiwi has much more given the amount of resistance we have found down at 1.81. 2. AUDNZD Re-balancing - there looks like there may be a AUDNZD rebalancing higher after 2wks of selling, this could shift GBPAUD aussie shorts into kiwi shorts vs GBP, though the AUDNZD movement higher looks to be struggling to gain traction given the differential of 50bps remains the bottom line, and weak fwd guidance from both RBA and RBNZ makes it difficult to differerentite the two (not to mention aussie data has been less firm in recent times vs kiwi). 3. UK PMI - UK PMIs next week, if outperforming will likely give GBP bulls more fuel to own sterling, given it is economic revisions recently higher that has been the fundamental reason for sterling topside - so further leading indications from PMIs could continue this trend, though given the move already higher, 1.82 could be the ceiling here (though watch out for a AUDNZD equilibrium higher which would make gbpnzd move through 1.82). If the PMIs were to show any figure above 50, expect an aggressive 300pip+ movement higher. 4. USD hiking risk - USD strength will cause NZD yield seeking supply as investors shift into USD markets instead.. as we have seen today with the spike higher, continued USD rate performance will drag on NZD longs in the medium term.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
SELL GBPAUD: STRAT TRADE - 7 DAYS UP P=99.746% 8TH DAY LOWERb]GBPAUD: 1. Sterlingaussie has been aggressively bid higher for the last 7-days on the back of sterling data outperforming last week, broad aussie weakness and a general recovery from lows. 2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 8th day or more of buying is 0.254% which means there is an implied 98.78% chance that we move higher today - I like these odds so will add a short here. - If we were to see another day of buying, a 8th day, then the probability of a 9th day is even better on the sell-side odds of 99.918% so i will add to shorts if this is the case - the max number of buying days in GBPAUD has been 10d once and 9d 3 times, 8d 7 times. 3. Plus aussie 30 bill rates firmed up on monday implying only a 5% chance of a september cut down from 8% of the past week, and sterling OIS rates came off from Fridays rally after the market decided to fade last weeks data. - Also we have found some technical price resistance at the 1.72 handle so being short here makes sense. Trading strategy - GBPAUD Sell @1.740: 1. Short GBPAUD pretty much at market TP should be 100-200pips lower. 2. Short small and add if we move higher again on thursday - friday imo is the most likely day for a sterling sell-off as shorts are squared up on profit taking. 3. I also like being short gbpnzd and gbpusd from 1.81 and 1.325 - both have 100-200 easy pips - especially on a UK GDP miss on friday.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
6
SELL GBPAUD: STRAT TRADE - 5 Days up P=98.78% 6TH DAY LOWERGBPAUD: 1. SterlingKiwi has been aggressively bid higher for the last 5-days on the back of sterling data outperforming last week, broad aussie weakness and a general recovery from lows. 2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 6th day or more of buying is 1.22% which means there is an implied 98.78% chance that we move higher today - I like these odds so will add a short here. - If we were to see another day of buying, a 6th day, then the probability of a 7th day is even better on the sell-side odds of 99.45% so i will add to shorts if this is the case - the max number of buying days in GBPAUD has been 10 once and 9 3 times. 3. Plus aussie 30 bill rates firmed up on monday implying only a 5% chance of a september cut down from 8% of the past week, and sterling OIS rates came off from fridays rally after the market decided to fade last weeks data. - Also we have found some technical price resistance at the 1.72 handle so being short here makes sense. Trading strategy - GBPAUD Sell @1.721: 1. Short GBPAUD pretty much at market TP should be 100pips lower at the 1.711 level. 2. Also check my previous post of short gbpnzd into rallies at 1.81 and GBPUSD into 1.315-32
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
4
AUDNZD - STAT TRADE: BUY AFTER A 5TH DAY OF SELLING; P=98.7%AUDNZD: 1. Aussie kiwi has been aggressively sold lower for the last 8/9 days, with the bullday being only 4pips higher (pretty much 9 straight days of selling) and most recently the last 4 days have been pure consecutive closes lower. 2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 5th day or more of selling is 3% which means there is an implied 32/33/ 97% chance that we move higher on the next day, these odds arent too great so I suggust NOT buying on open, instead lets wait and see if we can get another close lower on the daily that takes us into the strong support zone at 1.041/3 - then this will mean buying the probability that a 6th or more day of selling occurs which is 1.3% or an implied chance of 98.7% or 99/100 that the price will go up on the 6th day Trading strategy - AUDNZD wait for monday to close lower at 1.041/3 and buy tuesdays open: 1. I advise buying aussie here after the 5th day lower as the 6th day has a 98.7% chance of moving higher, after a 5th day of selling, the odds are good and I will take part in this.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
5
SELL EUR V AUD, USD, NZD: ECB MONETARY POLICY MINUTES HIGHLIGHTSAfter 5days higher EUR$ Statistically is a 80th percentile sell opportunity - the monetary policy minutes were dovish on the margin reiterating and stressing the ECB's willingness to "Boost stimulus again if needed". This should put downside pressure on EUR given september meeting is coming up (when most likely to add to easing). EURAUD and EURUSD shorts here look technically the best and fundamentally with EURNZD also possible and an alternative for EURAUD (depends on your preference - higher differential = NZD; weaker monpol fwd guidance/ future rate stability = AUD). ECB Monetary Policy Minutes Highlights: ECB SAYS "WIDE AGREEMENT" AMONG COUNCIL MEMBERS NOT TO DISCUSS ANY MONETARY POLICY REACTION AT JULY 20-21 MEETING -Brexit Vote Created New Headwinds for Eurozone Economy, Heightened Uncertainty-ECB Minutes -Brexit Vote Could Affect Global Economy in Unpredictable Ways-ECB Minutes -Policymakers Stressed ECB's Readiness to Boost Stimulus Again if Needed-ECB Minutes -Policymakers Thought it Was Too Soon to Discuss Fresh Stimulus-ECB Minutes -ECB Saw Market Impact of Brexit Vote "Contained"-ECB Minutes -Policymakers Stressed Need To Safeguard Transmission of ECB Policies Through Banks-ECB Minutes -Policymakers Noted Apparent Link Between Bank Stock Prices, Bank Lending Volumes-ECB Minutes ECB ACCOUNT OF MONPOL MEETING -Called For Measures To Address Weak Profitability -No Clear Upward Trend In Inflation Path -Premature To Discuss Fresh Stimulus ECB'S PRAET: CALLS WEAK PRICES AN 'ONGOING SOURCE' OF CONCERN
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
SHORT GBP VS AUD, NZD, USD: FADE RALLIES - RETAIL SALES BEATRetail sales outperformed on all cylinders today and GBP as expected has rallied into nice shortable levels now - with brexit uncertainty likely to continue to way and continued dovish BOE support also equally weighing on sterling in the future. My preferred shorts immediately are vs USD as i expected Fed Dudley and Williams (speaking today) to talk the extremely battered USD higher (as they did earlier in the week). I also like medium-term (end of next week shorts) vs NZD and AUD as GBPAUD and GBPNZD come into nice resistance at 1.81 and 1.713, after closing two days with both aussie and kiwi weaker i think this third day higher will be the last and thus a high probability opportunity to short GBP - I also like these AUD and NZD longs given the above average employment reports from both NZD and AUD this week which seemingly are yet to be priced vs GBP. Further the medium term view vs AUD and NZD of short GBP derives from the trend - where you can see GBP has lost 1000pips post brexit as the implied interest rate differential between GBP and AUD/ NZD has increased and is projected to increase as BOE ease rates and AUD and NZD rates are likely to remain stable (especially AUD given the SOMP and RBA minutes). Whilst NZD rates remain at the pinnacle of 2% so even if the RBNZ does ease as expected the differential between sterling and kiwi will remain the highest for yield seekers for the next 50bps lower, which is likely to be neutral. Trading strategy - Short GBP vs AUD, NZD, GBP in proportionate SMALL lots and add if higher: 1. Short GBPUSD @1.317 - 1.305/8TP1 1.290TP2 2. Short GBPAUD @1.713 - 1.693TP1 1.673TP2 3. Short GBPNZD @1.81 - 1.7910TP1 1.777TP2 I also like this strategy given the 3-way exposure net hedges any individual cross risk e.g. aud nzd or usd.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
AUDUSD LONG: RBA GOV STEVENS SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS"It's a search-for-yield world and this country still looks attractive because other yields look so unattractive," Mr. Stevens said in a joint interview with The Wall Street Journal and the Australian newspaper ahead of his retirement next month. "That's not something that the Reserve Bank can wave a wand and make go away." The below and above support my bullish AUD$ view, the RBA/ Gov Stevens seems to have accepted and become contempt somewhat that AUD appreciation will continue in an era of low global interest rates as ive said before/ earlier. I continue to like AUD$ to 0.78 12m highs, on the back of weak US CPI.. USD currently seeing some bids on the back of Fed Dudleys hawkish comments (attached), but i nonetheless think CPI will be the lasting word on the USD front and will help AUD$ bid up to the 0.78 level. USD strength comes as a function of the fed funds futures which are up at 18% probability of a sept hike vs 9% yesterday, though this should be faded into days end as the CPI weakness takes over RBA Gov Stevens Speech Highlights: RBA Gov. Stevens: World Economy Ready for U.S. Rate Rise RBA Gov. Stevens: Stronger GDP Growth Rates Would Be Welcomed RBA Gov. Stevens: Should Be Possible to Expand Budget, Retain AAA-Rating RBA Gov. Stevens: House Prices Must Still Be Watched Carefully RBA Gov. Stevens: Worrying Knowledge Gap Around China Economy RBA Gov. Stevens: Cash Rate Just One Variable for Australian Dollar Level RBA Gov. Stevens: High Yields in Australia in Infrastructure, Property RBA Gov. Stevens: Hard to Wave Away Demand for Australian Dolla RBA Gov. Stevens: Australian Housing Not in Risky Category RBA Gov. Stevens: Housing Debt Is Significant RBA Gov. Stevens: No Fresh Surge in Housing Leverage RBA Gov. Stevens: Housing Slump Would Not Lead to Systemic Risk RBA Gov. Stevens: Housing Slump Would Not Trigger Bank Failures
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
5
AUDUSD: RBA MINUTES - NEUTRAL & NO COMMITMENT TO FURTHER ACTIONMinutes were neutral with little hints to further action, much of which inline with the SOMP - if anything it was on the hawkish side given they expect "inflation to be improved by easing" which infers they think policy stable at 1.50% might be sufficient. Though they did go on to say "AUD$ rise could cause complications" though it was kept to a very limited sense (mining industry) and it certainly didnt suggest further easing was on the horizon if it persists. So Aussie from here, with the continued lack of fwd guidance from the RBA i see higher, as posted several days ago - given the 6-9m trend which looks to be yield seeking given the largest economies have slipped into negative rates (ECB, BOJ) and the BOE soon to follow (plus FOMC seem to have adopted a much flatter hike trajectory) thus i expect this bullish sentiment to continue to put topside pressure on aussie (particularly as the RBA have offered little reason for speculators to stay away) as investors continue to seek carry. Trading Strategy: Bullish - Buy Kiwi and Aussie @Market - careful of US Data. 0.773 and 0.779 (0.73 kiwi) look to be the next targets higher - risks to the view are obviously a firming USD through data improvement (given this is the Feds biggest mandate for future hikes), but given the recent data environment this seems unlikely, where i expect CPI today to miss too given retail sales and PPI (CPI Leading indicators) missed heavily last week - this should cause USD STIRs to sell-off again, push rate hopes for sept/ dec back lower and USD weaker + the presidential election i hear is becoming a somewhat constant drag on the USD, even if the rate expectations sell-off subsides. Kiwi has slightly more fwd guidance from the RBNZ with Oct/ November cut on the cards - whilst this may seem encouraging remember kiwi rates trade at 2.0% still vs 1.5% aussie which is a 50bps differential - not to mention that being 200bps+ vs rest of G10.. so kiwi topside is likely expected even though there was some average further monpol suggested as kiwi rates have to come down quite aggressively until they are even at par with aussie, let alone not the no.1 yield currency or closer to the average in G10.. until this point the antipodes will continue to be chased higher imo as investors seek easier yields . RBA Minutes Highlights: -RBA MINUTES: AT AUGUIST MEETING JUDGED PROSPECTS FOR GROWTH, INFLATION WOULD BE IMPROVED BY EASING -RBA MINUTES: BOARD SAW DIMINISHED RISKS FROM HOUSING DEBT, RISING HOME PRICES -RBA MINUTES: ROOM FOR STRONGER ECONOMIC GROWTH GIVEN INFLATION TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME -RBA MINUTES: HOUSE PRICES, AUCTION RATES, MORTGAGE LENDING POINTED TO COOLING MARKET -RBA MINUTES: RISING A$ COULD COMPLICATE TRANSITION FROM MINING BOOM -RBA MINUTES: FORWARD INDICATORS OF JOBS GROWTH POINTED TO STEADY UNEMPLOYMENT IN COMING MONTHS -RBA MINUTES: CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MOMENTUM IN LABOUR MARKET, INFLATION OUTLOOK -RBA MINUTES: GDP GROWTH LIKELY TO BE MORE MODEST IN Q2, AFTER STRONG Q1 -RBA MINUTES: UNEMPLOYMENT EXPECTED TO DIP ONLY SLOWLY TO 5.5 PCT BY 2018, LEAVE SLACK IN MARKET -RBA MINUTES: SUPPLY OF NEW HOMES TO KEEP RENT INFLATION AT LOW LEVELS -RBA MINUTES: PIPELINE OF HOME BUILDING AT VERY HIGH LEVELS, RISK OF OVERSUPPLY IN SOME MARKETS -RBA MINUTES: REASONABLE CHANCE OF FURTHER STIMULUS GLOBALLY IMPACTING ON CURRENCIES -RBA MINUTES: CHINA STIMULUS SUPPORTING GROWTH THERE, BUT UNCERTAINTY OVER LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK Full Minutes - www.rba.gov.au a
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: RBNZ GOV WHEELER SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSGovernor of the RBNZ Wheeler offered little bearish pressure on kiwi, refusing to go into any intervention talk and failing to say what the bank will actually use to tame this deflationaire NZD they are experiencing at the moment - with the comments below in mind imo this leaves on direction for Kiwi (short of some FOMC/ USD bullish pressure which seems unlikely as rate expectations continue to be sold-off on the back of a quiet data week) and thats higher - in the speech it became apparent that cutting rates does little to curb kiwi strength given the relative differential remains the highest in G10 in this low interest environment both AUD and NZD rates remain some 50-150bps more attractive for those low risk yield seeking funds. On a break of 0.733 I see NZD$ moving towards 0.76 - though any USD strength could tame the cross, especailly given 60bps of further cuts have been built into the kiwi projections - though given there is 6wks until the next meeting imo there is certainly time for us to move higher before moving lower into the meeting as dovish expectations build as they did before. From here AUD looks more attractive here given their lack of forward guidance, and already breakout levels 0.78 is now the target - USD strength may continue weak given the presidential election.. is it likely the FOMC will hike just before an election e.g. sept or nov? despite their independence this seems unlikely + imo a Dec hike makes the most sense especially as some feds call for some consistency e.g. 12m as it is easier to measure policy transmission this way. One potential downside to this view is USD strength, whilst we seem to be in a wave of relentless selling this could be reversed if it is no election related (though there is little else impetus offered) but nonetheless given AUD's breakout i think the 0.78 target is still fair and given NZDs reaction already - it is unlikely we see sellers from here, this reaction almost mimics the RBA's rate cut reaction e.g. 50pips higher - but that was then followed by 200pips higher 1wk later.. we could certainly be in for the same price action here and this is what my bets are on. RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speech Highlights: -WHEELER: NOT SURPRISED BY NZD MOVE AFTER TODAY'S DECISION -WHEELER: RBNZ HAS BUILT 60BPS OF CUTS INTO PROJECTIONS -WHEELER: NO SERIOUS CONSIDERATIONS OF A 50BPS CUT -RBNZ GOV WHEELER: WOULD LIKE TO SEE MOST OF RATE CUT PASSED ON BY BANKS -WHEELER: THERE IS FLEXIBILITY IN POLICY TARGETS AGREEMENT -WHEELER: WANT NZD TO FALL, WANT TO TAKE PRESSURE OFF NZD WITH LOWER RATES -WHEELER: DEBT TO INCOME TOOL UNLIKELY TO BE IMPLEMENTED THIS YEAR -WHEELER: WAGE MODERATION GREATER THAN RBNZ EXPECTED -WHEELER: RBNZ HAS LIMITED INFLUENCE OVER NZD -WHEELER: WOULD BE CONCERNED IF THERE WAS A FURTHER DROP IN ST INFLATION EXPECTATIONS -WHEELER: WILL LOOK AT NZD REACTION OVER COMING DAYS
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
NZDUSD: RBNZ MONPOL DECISION PREVIEW - BOE OR RBA STYLE?RBNZ Monetary Policy Decision : 1. At 22:00GMT the RBNZ are expected to cut their OCR rate to 2% from 2.25% (25bps), further they will release their monpol statement and rate statement then too - with RBNZ Gov Wheeler speaking 1hr after the release. 2. The are a number of outcomes which are likely to or not to affect the NZD$ market, I will list the combinations below from the very LHS/ Dovish to the more mild and RHS- Combination of outcomes - assuming the 25bps cut is certain as it is priced 100% into kiwi rates markets: 1. LHS NZD$ response fall to 0.690-0.681 - a 50bps rate cut, dovish statements and offering strong easing biased forward guidance e.g. hinting at further cuts likely, possible QE, other alternative measures being taken if kiwi persists strong - and Gov Wheeler Reiterates this dovish and highly committed sentiment in his speech.. - BOE and Gov Carney speech last week is a good illustration of a LHS response, very strong commitment to future easing - despite denying negative rates (housing market sentiment could be the equivalent here) 2. Average NZD$ response fall to 0.710 on the day - a 25bps rate cut, some weak references to future monpol - Wheeler fails to convince the market anything new will be coming 3. RHS NZD$ response = stable at market, then whipsaw higher to 0.73 on the day as investors flock to the highest G10 carry - a 25bps cut, no references to more easing and a theme of conplacency - Wheeler is neutral and perhaps makes mention to the housing environment limiting the RBNZ's hand with future easing. - RBA's rate cut and SOMP last week and Gov Stevens speech yesterday is a good example of a RHS rate cut and neutral statement/ Speech - offering no forward guidance on policy, no hits at future easing conventional or otherwise - where we have seen AUD$ move 200pips higher despite the cut My Opinion on the most likely outcome: 1. Assuming the RBNZ have seen the very bullish AUD reaction to this weeks WEAK rate cut by the RBA/ Stevens (as discussed above) and the RBNZ has also seen the bearish reaction of the market towards BOE/ Carney's reaction to their aggressively dovish statement, speech and policy measures (e.g. cut and 60bn in QE); - And assuming the RBNZ have seen Kiwi's strength (or USD weakness) and the high levels/ bullish sentiment kiwi is going in at into this monpol decision, which is particularly important now since the RBNZ's emergency economic assessment which stated that they didnt appreciate the strong kiwi$ and would like to bring it down. - These two factors in mind, plus the fact kiwi data has remained weak and RBNZ at even 2% after a 25bps cut is still the highest yield currency by a massive 50bps in G10 (AUD at 1.5%), so thinking of these 4 elements which are all very dominant calls for dovish/ 50bps cut policy It makes sense to think that the RBNZ will be skewed to delivering a very dovish/ LHS monpol package and a BOE M. Carney like speech by Gov Wheeler, especially since the House inflation issue has been discussed and macroprudential policies are set to be put in place in september to try and curb this issue where of past this has been a hawkish limitation on the RBNZ's will to be dovish and ease more. - However, guessing central banks this year has been tricky (BOJ in mind) so there is no certainty, and also there are some worrys over the RBNZs ability to cut 50bps at once - despite the need for it as a 25bps cut leaves a 50bps differential between AUD and NZD which will continue to cause deflationairy pressure and bullish NZD as investors flock to kiwi over the close partner Aussie - given this the RBNZ should be even more inclined to cutting the 50bps so that their ccy isnt used as the "carry ccy". There has been several calls by sell-side houses for a 50bps cut, but as above only time will tell.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTSRelatively poor delivery from the RBNZ, by the looks of the whipsaw the market wanted/ expected 50bps based on the AUD differential and the RBA rate cut last week 50bps or some alt policy (e.g. QE) seemed like the smart move to make. From here Kiwi and Aussie longs look preferential as the macro environment shifts to a yield seeking stance from monpol trading - 0.782 for AUD and 0.76 for NZD seem the next bull levels. RBNZ unlike RBA offered some promsing forward guidance though e.g. "further policy easing willl be required" and "A decline in the exchange rate is needed" and "high NZD is causing negative inflation in tradables sector" and "Low global rates are placing upward pressure on the kiwi dollar" - all of which comments point to the RBNZ issuing more dovish easing but it does also ponder the question that given they knew this before making the decision why they didnt execute some of the "further policy easing" and "monpol will continue to be accommodative" which will be required in the future now, to have a greater effect vs just a 25bps cut which the market had already digested weeks ago. The RBNZ also interestingly referenced the low global rates environment causing NZD strength through carrry/ hot money flows - which once again begs the question if the RBNZ know that their rate is the leading rate in G10 by 50-150bps, why did they only cut 25bps as a 25bps cut still keeps NZD as the headline ccy for carry and will likely continue to attract hot money flows unless investors are scared by aggressive future policy - which is now in the hands of Gov Wheeler to project the aggressiveness (or not) of the RBNZ to combat the rate differential and consequently bring the NZD down where they feel it is acceptable. Imo given the markets reaction alot is riding on Gov Wheelers speech in 35mins - he needs to be VERY dovish in his forward guidance rhetoric and offer certainties that make kiwi seem less stable than AUD in the future and thus send the hot money flows into AUD and in order to tame kiwi below 0.73, otherwise we will likely see a replication of the AUD case where we moved 100pips+ on the day despite a cut and SOMP and Gov Stevens speech. From here we wait for the speech. If the speech fails to tame kiwi, i suggest buying kiwi as it is likely to outperform given the lack of easing vs expectations/ what is needed to move NZD lower. Further AUD longs are also advised in this carry seeking macro environment - a Dovish RBNZ makes AUD more attractive but even a neutral RBNZ should help AUD also as it puts less pressure on the RBA to ease since the rate differential between their biggest partner is large enough and still in their favour for kiwi buying for aussie. Nonetheless at these technical levels i like AUD to 0.78 and kiwi to 0.76 if we break 0.734 and Wheeler isnt specific/ aggressive with the forward guidance + the USD weakness is likely to last this week with 0 data coming out so longs make even more sense if only short term RBNZ Monetary Policy Decision Highlights: RBNZ: Risk of Further Declines in Inflation Expectations RBNZ Says Further Policy Easing Will Be Required RBNZ: House Price Inflation Adding To Financial Stability Concerns RBNZ: Monetary Policy Will Continue To Be Accommodative New Zealand Dollar Rises After RBNZ Cut To US$0.7315 RBNZ: A Decline In Exchange Rate is Needed RBNZ: House Price Inflation Remains Excessive RBNZ:Lower Dairy Prices Depressing Farm Sector Incomes RBNZ:Domestic Growth Supported By Inward Migration, Construction, Tourism RBNZ: Low Global Rates Placing Upward Pressure On NZ Dollar RBNZ: Trade Weighted Index Signficantly Higher Than Assumed in June MPS RBNZ: High NZ Dollar Causing Negative Inflation in Tradables Sector NZ Central Bank Sees 90-Day Bank Bill at 2.1% in 4Q 2016 vs Prior 2.2% NZ Central Bank Sees 90-Day Bank Bill at 1.8 % in 2Q 2017 vs Prior 2.1%
by QuantumLogicTrading
NZDUSD: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - TARGET 0.701 BUT USD WEAKNESS?NZD$ Technical Analysis: Moving Average/ fair price gauge: 1. Kiwi looks rich here at the lower 0.72 level which, significantly above the 3m and 12m which sit at 0.703 and 0.690 respestively, whilst the 1 trades at 0.711. - However, going into RBNZ where they are expected to be dovish (discussed in detail in attached post), these MA levels fall nicely in line with areas of price action suppport and thus will be used as profit targets - thus 0.711, 0.701 and 0.691 are my TP1 TP2 and TP3 levels however, given the bearish bias >50% of my lots will be squared at between the 0.701 and the 0.61 level. The 0.711 level is an intermediate TP, which is better suited for 0.718 shorts vs the 0.722 shorts that i currently hold. 0.691 is possible but is skewed towards the bottom of the range, with 0.681 at the very LHS - a 50bps cut and strong dovish forward guidance e.g. like BOE will likely offer us here - cable managed to fall some 350-400pips which ceteris paribus takes kiwi into the 0.681 level also. Volatility 1. Realised vol has contracted aggressively in the last few days as the daily ranges have tightened unsurprisingly going into RBNZ - IV on the other hand also unsurprisingly has traded bid as option positioning increases as investors place bets on RBNZ. - Net bets to date look to be bearish, with current 25d risk reversals skewed to the downside at -2.6vols, and across the view we observe a -0.5 to -1 downside bias reflecting the expected RBNZ dovish pressure expected. - 50d ATM vols trade currently at 30%, 14.8% 1wks, 12.3% 2wks and 11.3% 1m - clearly the RBNZ and following speakers are steepening the vols here. Though interestingly past current and 1wks, 2wk and 1m IVs are flatter than RV, indicating the market expects kiwi price action to settle after the next week which could mean we see NZD$ move post RBNZ then stabalise at this level vs obseriving continued seesaw action of the past 6wks e.g. 0.70-3 ranging. - Interestingly RV has developed a 60-80% correlated pattern of aggressive/ volatile price action emerging AFTER RV reaching the 5.0-5.5 level (current levels) so assuming my/ markets RBNZ forecasts are correct one would expect this move to be lower (ive highlighted these moves). Standard Deviation: 1. On the daily weve seen SD normalise from the previous levels where kiwi tested the +2 levels after realising these upper 0.72 levels for a sustained amount of time now - hence NZD$ trades at pretty normal levels for the linear regression though an uptrend as now formed vs sideways/ flat being the previous trend. However, I am betting on the RBNZ offering kiwi lower and realising some days below the 0.70 which should see the kiwi trade at 0.70 as an average price at years end - assuming the RBNZ has seen RBA and BOE (and the difference in response and will use this to make their policy effective).
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
AUDUSD: FUTURE DIRECTION? BUY THE BREAKOUT; SELL THE TRIPLE TOPPost RBA has left Aussie in a somewhat uncertain direction; whilst the 25bps cut last week should have seen us offered to at least the 0.74 low support level, instead weve seen persistent aussie bids, even despite the strong USD employment report and consequential increased rate hike odds. Much of this Aussie topside is a function of investors shifting macro strategies from a monetary policy stance to a yield seeking/ rate differential positionings; further aussie downside was unhelped by the RBA's rate statement & SOMP which failed to offer any forward guidance regarding further policy, or hint at any FX levels which they thought were too high. Despite this I have seen several sell-side houses offer particularly dovish outlooks for the RBA - with 2 or more rate cuts and potentially new unconventional methods being used by end of 2017. My personal view is a mixed one. Whilst Aussie lower at these levels makes sense e.g. rate cut last week seemingly yet to be priced, we are at a double top resistance level that has held when the rate was 1.75 so should hold now the rate is lower. However, whilst this is the case in the immediate term aussie is still trading better bid, which is interesting given kiwi is trading with a slightly biased offered tone even though kiwi still has the better carry at 2.25% vs 1.5% - this could be a signal the market expects the RBNZ to be more aggressive in their policy decision on the 10th and/ or they will be more dovish and assertive with their forward guidance, which i agree is likely given the RBNZ has said several times it is not happy with kiwi at these levels and is likely to use policy tools to combat this. So on this note, if AUD$ holds the 0.768 level and fails to close on the daily above this (and shows 1/2 red dailies lower) this wiLl show the bias has confirmed to the downside and I will sell aussie to 0.750tp1 and 0.743tp2. Alternatively, given aussies topside bias, and the factors mentioned above, it is highly possible that the bulls win and AUD$ breaks higher - if we see a daily close above the 0.768 highs this imo will likely confirm the breakout and my bias until 0.778 is bullish thus I will buy the break with a 0.775tp1 and 0.778tp2. Today USD strength is firming as the fed funds rate implies a sept p=18% that the fed hikes up from 12% yesterday - though on the data side we are pretty quiet, with retail sales the only notable print which is on Friday. On the AUD side Gov Stevens from the RBA will be speaking later this week... hopefully he sets a bearish aussie tone and helps us move lower, but either way i think AUD$ is a solid trade. The breakout will see alot of momentum imo as a high % of bears will have stops ust above the 0.768 level (given the double top resistance) so we would likely short squeeze those stops 30pips higher immediately once their level has broken. Further, a confirmed rejection at the 0.767 level should see the bears take over (as they have done in the past 2 times), hence my high conviction on this trade.
by QuantumLogicTrading
3