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RBA

Trade Idea for AUDUSDAlthough we are not keen to open a new trade position yet, we thought it might be useful to provide some analysis for the Aussie, just because we enjoy doing it. So here goes! Current momentum for Aussie is definitely bearish, although recent unemployment data has been much better then expected. However the low commodity prices is putting a cap on the AUD, especially with copper and iron prices printing fresh lows. Looking at the weekly chart above, the AUDUSD was trading within a range for the past 2 weeks, and last week managed to gain selling pressure as commodities were dumped, although it recovered on Friday, but closedat 0.7160, the previous support now supposedly turned resistance. Clearly the rally for the past month to test 0.7380, the level capping the trend as bearish, failed, with selling momentum back on, and forming a double top in the process. With this failure, we can expect to see price head back towards 0.6900. After last friday's recovery however, traders who want a high possibility trade should wait for the bearish momentum to resume.  We have below the 4hr chart, which shows a strong recovery prior to the end of the US session on Friday, but still capped below 0.7200. Further bearish signals on the lower timeframe charts will provide a entry to go short on the back of bearish momentum. with the speed of the decline, not very strong at the momentum, respecting neither the 8 nor 21 EMA.  Cheers! FX Genesis Fund Manager For more analysis, please visit our page at www.fxgenesisfm.com
Short
by FxGenesis
GBPAUD: UpdateSee the related ideas for my analysis of this pair, which demonstrate the power and surgical precision of the Time at Mode methodology I learned from Tim West here. In this juncture, the weekly chart is offering a potential retracement entry, in case we were to see such an event, which would guarantee a 9.54:1 trade op. In case price were to continue straight down, I'd be looking for alternative ways of joining the decline, perhaps having to resort to lower timeframe entries for instance. For information on managing positions, and getting trade signals and coaching, contact me or Nicholas Coulby (ncoulb1) here. We're running a trading room Skype group for Forex, CFD, Metals, Energy or Stock traders. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
Short
by IvanLabrie
16
AUDUSD: At the crossroadsI'm monitoring AUDUSD to enter a long trade today if possible. After today's close, and before the RBA minutes come out, I'll be entering pending orders, and sharing them here. The outlook is bearish for the dollar mostly, and if we have evidence of the Fed delaying hikes until next year (which we did today), I think we can expect a continued rallying in risk on assets, one being AUDUSD, NZDUSD and Gold (yes, paper gold implies risk as well, and has been correlated to the Dow and S&P lately). For more information and insights into managing this position, scaling in, and understanding the logic behind the technical setups contact me via pm. I'm currently hosting a skype group, where I share trade setups and also provide traders with training, as well as 2 private webinars per week, and also giving tutoring via skype calls, on a one on one basis. See the GBPAUD idea for an example of the kind of work that I do. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
by IvanLabrie
3
AUDUSD Near-Term OutlookThe Australian dollar is coming off a sizable gain against the greenback, following an employment jump of 58,600. This pushed the unemployment rate down to 5.9 percent from 6.2 percent in September. Analysts are expecting this to hinder further rate cuts near-term, while economist Stephen Koukoulas believes the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may indeed raise rates. Before we jump off the deep-end, I noted following the higher than expected employment data that Australian employment from month-to-month is volatile and should be taken with a grain of salt. I have witnessed a gain of 70,000 one month followed by a loss of 20,000 the next. Furthermore, wage growth is rapidly contracting. Traders watch central banks fumbling with whether to continue on a path to ease or not. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) increased their key benchmark by 100 bps on a series of strong, albeit short-lived, data only to reverse course in less than a year’s time. AUDUSD is trading within a descending channel on the 4H chart leading into the RBA policy minutes on Monday. If the RBA can hold off on further easing, the pair could set up for a potential near-term trend break. Near-term resistance is located at .7163 and .7217, while if the RBA hints at further easing, AUDUSD could continue its path lower .7070. The week is chalk full of U.S. data, which could aid the Aussie dollar in either direction. If U.S. data is weak enough and triggers greenback selling, the pair could achieve near-term resistance targets. Moving average activity is looking like it is setting up for a 20/50-EMA bullish convergence, but until then they are merely minor support levels. Intraday momentum, as measured by the ADX, is rather weak at 14. The +/- DMI is suggesting bullish price action is still there, but the RBA could quickly jawbone a change. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
GBPAUD Bullish View fundamentals #RBA #China #forexMy mood is bullish for that Pair. Basically due to fundamentals like cheap oil FX:USOIL , iron ore, coal and metals like copper FX:COPPER . Main consumer worldwide and in this region is China. China's economy is slowing down after years of +7% growth. www.tradingeconomics.com www.tradingeconomics.com One of China's big supplier is Australia. atlas.media.mit.edu Australia's currency devalues with cheap commodities. Watch out for the main event for GBPAUD. Interest Rate in Australia is reported by the Reserve Bank of Australia this week. www.tradingeconomics.com
Long
by piptank
AUDUSD: Long a retracement if offeredAUDUSD seems to be reversing the long term downtrend that started in July 2014. There's only one week left in the largest mode's signal, and after exceeding the target, price formed a double bottom, and we observed a very strong rally emerge after its completion. I'll be placing pending long orders here, similarly to NZDUSD, to try and capture the uptrend if it were to materialize. If I don't get a fill, then I'll have to look for different entries. Good luck, and remember to check out my signals page at collective2.com. I offer live updates and trade management cues to minimize risk and maximize profits. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
EURAUD: Uptrend continuationIt seems like the time is finally right to buy into EURAUD. There's a 4h downtrend signal time expiration after this bar's close, as well as a relevant level of technical confluence: Fibonacci 0.382 retracement of previous impulse Range expansion support Low volume profile support Correlation to gold: Australian dollar will suffer, gold breached the weekly mode down, so it's probable to see AUD weaken. Stop loss should be below 1.43296, or using daily 3 atr value for it, or 1 atr below the low after the close. Depends on your preference. I will have no TP, and will watch the hourly chart for entry, but you could enter now with a wide stop and average the entry as well. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
31
EURAUD: Multiple timeframe analysis suggests rallyThis is an update to my previous EURAUD chart, I was waiting for a long entry and it just presented itself to me. We have an hourly impulse forming, looks like a 5 wave advance, which could be the first of a new bullish cycle. The daily chart shows a strong mode has been formed and price is about to move above it, after producing a series of strong moves up followed by weak and grinding corrections. This looks like a potentially explosive long trade, with the weekly timeframe hinting at the possibility of a larger uptrend as well. I'll enter long and manage the position, trying to scale in on every chance I get. The initial target is the projection of the point of balance off the lows to the mode of the current distribution curve (a time spent at price profile of recent price action, as per Tim West's technique). A hefty move, considering this is only a very speculative projection, price can always end up trending and moving faster and in wider intervals. We'll see in due time, for now, looking to get long off lower timeframe signals, speculating that the larger timeframe ones will be confirmed with me already in an advantageous position. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
EURAUD: Ideal opportunity for a pair tradeAfter seeing The Working Trader's idea I figured I could attemp a pair trade in this pair, to take advantage of the interest rate differential in both EURUSD short and AUDUSD long. The entry will be a market order, but I'd have to see how the markets open tomorrow, I will update the chart by then. For now, keep in mind that for pair trades, I aim to open a big position on each side, which thanks to the pair trade's more 'market neutral' stance, lets me use no stop loss and be somewhat safe, at least, as long as the ratio chart's setup is valid (in this case EURAUD). The advantages are multiple, check out The Working Trader's post in 'related ideas' for more information, I detailed it there. For now, if you want to enter this trade, find out the ADR value (atr of 1,5,10 and 20 bars added together and divided by 4). Once you know this you can calculate position size in base on your desired risk, per day. You will have to watch the trade, unless you're deep in profit, it won't be a set and forget deal. Good luck, and wait for the update regarding entry tomorrow. Target is initially the time at mode one, but it can retrace the whole terminal wedge (it should for it to be valid, and it has to occur in 1/3-1/4 the time it took to be formed). Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
11
Copper: offering clues for the Australian dollar tradersWatch this commodity, since it's very influential, showing a high positive correlation with the australian dollar. Right now I have a bullish weekly setup, aiming for the area depicted by the triangle, which happens to match two channels' resistance. Rgmov is advancing with price, and currently showing a 0.382 retracement after the recent bearish swing. Will this be a refresher before further upside? Should be constructive to keep this as reference when trading Australian dollar FX pairs. Good luck, Ivan.
FX:COPPER
by IvanLabrie
6
AUDUSD: Neutral but potentially due for a long tradeWe have interesting evidence, suggesting AUDUSD might be ready for a reversal from this level. The selloff has been intense, but price only completed a 0.786 retracement of the advance, which matches the daily mode that originated said uptrend. The downtrend generated a 4 bar target that has reached and exceeded the projected level, and is flashing a buy signal after doing so right on time, sending price back to a support area. Similarly to EURUSD, I'm changing my bias to cautiously bullish here, and will look for an entry long tomorrow before NY opens, based on tonight's developments. An early small position could be entered here but I'd rather take a confirmed setup off the 1h/4h and daily charts instead. Good luck! Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
23
GBPAUD: In depth time at mode analysisI spent a long time analyzing this pair, contrasting views with my colleague Nick Coulby, who specializes in Elliott Wave analysis, and working on my own time at mode analysis of this pair, as well as adding the result of insightful discussions held at Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' chatroom, regarding this topping pattern, as well as the patterns in the gold chart, and it's Elliott Wave analysis. All this rich information and length analytical process leads me to conclude the following: The uptrend isn't done, and while we see gold rallying, this pair will correct down offering a potentially interesting short setup, before lending us a perfect position trade on the long side if it meets my expectations. Ultimately the structure in gold is corrective, and the faith of the Aussie dollar's strength is connected to it, as well as to other dollar linked commodities (iron ore, copper), and subjected to stronger easing biases, vs those of the United Kingdom's BOE. In this regard, on the subject of fundamental analysis, we can see that the bias it favors is on the long side, but the timing for trading with it wouldn't position us favorably in this trade. I'll be looking for shorts as soon as gold starts rallying again, waiting for a retest of the top area, since I think we're seeing a corrective X wave flat pattern with limited downside. This will lead to new highs to complete the monthly uptrend signal target which will possibly form a new zigzag with a wedge C wave like we have observed before in this pair. This new wedge C wave will be the top of this formation offering an ideal short trade of larger implications, which is what I'm after. Conclusion is: If this model holds, and I think it's highly probable that it will, we will see a range bound situation, leading to a new high in a sharp advance, after which we will probably observe a terminal wedge pattern, which will be our cue for the interesting short setup, which should retrace the whole structure, and lead to a perfect long entry to rejoin the larger quarterly uptrend. I will continue to update this publication, since I think it has great potential and value, both as a journal, and as a testament of both Tradingview.com's and Tim West's 'time at mode' model's power. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
41
GBPAUD: Doves vs Hawks pt.2I'm watching this pair closely, there's a time at mode downtrend currently active but the target was already reached. We have a lot of interesting news events today for both currencies which makes me think we will have an excellent opportunity on the long side here. I'll update with my suggested entry once I'm convinced enough. Longer term time at mode targets are still active and valid, so I think we will soon reach them based on both technicals and fundamental information. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13
AUDUSD: Time at mode updateOk, the correction seems complete, as many bright people pointed out. Now I'll try to get an entry short here. My last time at mode downtrend target has been reached ahead of time, which is typical behavior before a correction, so, the plan is to wait for said retracement to trigger a sell, probably by tomorrow morning, during the NY session. Initial target is a retest of the lower mode in the daily chart. Copper might correct now, so that should confirm my bias as well: I'll post updates when entering the trade.
Short
by IvanLabrie
3
AUDUSD: Quarterly and yearly signals and trading mapThe levels on chart are very significant, as evidenced by the price action around them, and how the trend signals targets and timing of said trends respects time at mode guidelines. I identified the end of a quarterly downtrend, in time, byJune 30th, which isn't far ahead, and a new quarterly downtrend signal that points to further declines in the long term, with completion dates by March 31st, 2016. I think this publication will aid in identifying the potential of lower timeframe signals, when contrasting it with the levels on chart, to gauge how far, and how fast price can move in the future. In the short term, I anticipate a surge in gold, and in the AUD and NZD pairs, while the crude oil correlated currencies cool down after strong uptrends, and also, while the dollar remains weak (which might extend for months if we continue at this rate). As for the yearly chart, there's a possibility that we confirm a yearly downtrend signal in the future, depending on how far the AUDUSD rallies and where does the yearly bar close. Cheers, Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
3
EURAUD: Potential time at mode uptrend confirms tomorrowBased on my lower timeframe analysis and the fact that rgmov has put on a new 2 month high despite price not making higher highs yet, I think this uptrend signal will be valid very soon. I'll enter long here, and let it run, it's worth the risk, even if it's a long shot. As an extra for my pitchfork enthusiast friends, there's a close past the trigger line of that PB fork...rather sleek. Remember to follow me at collective2.com to get live trading updates by email, auto-trading or signals for manual trading, as well as coaching. Link is in my profile. Good luck! Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1