Get started

RBA

AUD/USD - Aussie on the move, RBA expected to pause ratesThe Australian dollar has edged higher at the start of the week. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6715, up 0.45%. The RBA meets on Tuesday (Australia time) and is expected to pause rates. The US releases ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to record another decline. The RBA has aggressively tightened interest rates in the current cycle, raising rates 10 straight times. The fight against inflation continues but there has been some improvement. February CPI fell sharply to 6.8%, vs. 7.4% prior and 7.1% anticipated. Inflation is more than triple the RBA target, but the sharp rise in rates has dampened economic activity and further hikes could jeopardize a soft landing. The RBA is widely expected to stay on the sidelines, with the market pricing in a pause at 86%. Governor Lowe has said that in addition to inflation, employment and consumer spending data would play a key factor in the RBA's decision. The labour market remains tight, but retail sales hit the breaks in February and slowed to just 0.2%, down from 1.8% in January and just above the consensus estimate of 0.1%. The weak retail sales data supports the RBA taking a breather. The banking crisis, which roiled global financial markets, raised fears of a financial meltdown. Although the contagion appears to have been contained, central banks are having to think twice about raising rates in an uncertain economic landscape, and if the RBA does pause, it could use the banking crisis as further ammunition in defending its decision. We're seeing a decline in manufacturing across the globe as demand remains weak. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and China's Covid-zero policy interrupted supply chains and dampened demand, and manufacturing is yet to recover even though China has made an about-face and relaxed its Covid regulations. The US is no exception to this disturbing global trend. ISM Manufacturing PMI has been in decline for four straight months, with readings below the 50 threshold, which separates expansion from contraction. The estimate stands at 47.5, a bit lower than the 47.7 reading in January. AUD/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.6737. Above, there is resistance at 0.6790 There is support at 0.6678 and 0.6582
by OANDA
RBA meeting preview – a defining moment in the cycle Time – 4 April @ 14:30 AEDT In the March RBA meeting minutes, the RBA noted policy was now in restrictive territory and they would “reconsider” the case for a pause in the April meeting. Is there enough new information to compel this pause? Market expectations - hike or a pause? The market prices just 4bp of hikes for this meeting, equating to a 16% chance of a 25bp hike. We see just 10bp of hikes priced for both the April and May meeting, with the market seeing the effective cash rate at 3.52% by September. Economists’ expectations are more divided than the pricing implied in the interest rate futures – of 26 economists polled by Bloomberg 16 are calling for a pause and 10 for a 25bp hike. AUD positioning – essential when assessing risk around any major announcement. Looking at AUD futures positioning, or spot FX positioning reported by banks, there is no extreme bias - so positioning, in isolation, shouldn’t result in any exacerbated moves in the AUD. In the weekly CoT report, we see non-commercial accounts (trading FX futures) hold a net position of -38,459 contracts - that is the 49th percentile of the 5-year range. In the more defined TFF report leveraged funds (again trading FX futures) are small net long at 6290 contracts, the 67th percentile of the 5-year range. (CFTC/CoT report – non-commercial AUD futures positions) Investment bank flow reports portray leveraged funds running a small net short AUD position, while real money accounts are long but not neither are at extremes. Pepperstone’s clients hold a net long AUD position, and this could be representative of broad retail trader positioning and sentiment. Digging into this we see a split on the near-term direction of AUDUSD, with 52% of open positions held short (48% long). There is a more concentrated long bias in the AUD crosses with 77% of open positions in AUDNZD held long and 74% short EURAUD and 79% short GBPAUD. This is likely a reflection of the set-up in the pairs and not on the RBA meeting per se. Trading the RBA meeting Initial thoughts I think the RBA holds rates unchanged, but I also think 4bp of hikes that are priced is too low and the probability of a hike should be closer to 40% than the implied 16%. The downside in AUD on a pause seems limited, given the RBA will likely make it clear in the statement they will retain the flexibility to hike rates in May. My preferred tactical approach is to fade any extreme initial moves – using limit orders to sell rallies or buy weakness, as I see a high probability the RBA statement may counter any initial move driven by their actions with the cash rate. Need to know Market pricing portrays a high degree of conviction that the RBA are on hold - so a 25bp hike could cause the AUD to see a solid spike off the bat. The extent by which price could extend would be driven by the RBAs statement and whether the market felt the wording suggested the May meeting was also priced too low. With 10bp of hikes priced for both this meeting and May, the market is essentially saying that if they don’t hike at this meeting then it's unlikely the RBA will hike in May – this seems fair, as they are more likely to hike now and pause in May. With subdued levels of AUD implied volatility, the market is not expecting to be shocked – for a genuine surprise I suspect we’d need to see a ‘dovish hold’ – where the RBA keep rates on hold and offers a clear view they will pause for an extended period as they assess the lag effect of tightening into the real economy. This seems unlikely given inflation is still far too high. Conversely, a ‘hawkish hike’ – where we get a 25bp hike, and the statement signals another could come in May – this would get the AUD firing. Again, this seems unlikely, as it would cause a strong tightening of financial conditions at a time when growth is delicately poised. The case for a hike - Those calling for a hike of 25bp see a tight labour market, strong business confidence, and high-capacity utilization. Digging into the Feb monthly CPI indicators we saw broad-based month-on-month rising price pressures – it was only holiday, travel and accommodation and recreation that created the disinflation impulse. The case to pause - Those calling for the RBA to hold rates at 3.6% acknowledge that headline inflation is moderating quicker than expected, suggesting a big downside risk in the Q1 CPI print (released 26 April). There is clear evidence that inflation has peaked and fallen to the RBA’s estimate of 6.7% by June. Wage growth is not problematic and there are lag effects from 360bp of hikes that still need to filter through to the real economy – there is also a significant number of fixed-rate mortgages rolling off in Q223. I think the RBA hold but I also see the implied probability too low – how do you see the risks?
by Pepperstone
AUD/USD - Aussie falls as inflation dipsThe Australian dollar is trading at 0.6670 in Europe, down 0.57%. Australian inflation was lower than expected, raising speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia might pause at its April meeting. Australia's inflation rate for February eased to 6.7% y/y, down from 7.4% prior and the 7.2% estimate. It may be too early to declare that inflation has peaked, but there's no question that inflation is heading in the right direction. That is good news for businesses and households, which have been hurt by the double-punch of high inflation and rising interest rates. The unexpected sharp drop in inflation likely has cemented the RBA pausing at the April 4th meeting, and that is weighing on the Australian dollar today. RBA Governor Lowe had said that this week's retail sales and inflation releases would be key factors in the rate decision. Retail sales slowed to just 0.2% m/m in February, down from 1.2% prior and shy of the estimate of 0.4%. Weak consumer spending and falling inflation point to the economy slowing, and the RBA will likely respond with a pause, which would be the first since the rate-tightening cycle began in May 2022. The markets have fully priced in a pause at next week's meeting, with a likelihood of around 90%. In the US, higher rates have taken a toll on the housing sector. Pending Home Sales has recorded mostly declines over the past year, as potential home buyers are finding it more difficult to afford a new home. The indicator is expected to come in at -2.9% in February, after an unexpected jump of 8.1% in January. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6676. Above, there is resistance at 0.6728. There is support at 0.6565 and 0.6402
by OANDA
AUDJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, AUDJPY is trading in a descending channel, in the coming week i expect JPY to continue outperforming AUD as JPY is considered a safe haven in time of uncertainty in the Forex Market so it may continue to strengthen against commodity currencies and as Reserve Bank of Australia attend an 11 Years interest rate high that open a door for a pause and signals dovish interest rates hikes the coming meeting. so AUDJPY shorts should be a perfect catch. Technically we have noticed that AUDJPY is approaching the descending channel resistance so i will be watching a potential reversal around 89 resistance zone. and i would be targeting the channel support. feel free to ask any question in the comment section. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
22
Australian dollar climbs on strong employment dataThe Australian dollar has taken investors on a roller-coaster ride this week, reflective of the gyrations we're seeing in the financial markets. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6656, up 0.56%. Australia's employment report for February was stronger than expected. The economy produced 64,600 news jobs, after a decline of 10,900 in January. This beat the estimate of 48,500. What was especially encouraging was that full-time jobs rose by 74,900, with part-time positions declining by 10,300. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, its lowest level in almost 50 years, down from 3.7% and below the estimate of 3.6%. The tightness in the labour market has allowed the RBA to aggressively tighten, with ten straight rate hikes since April 2022. Inflation slowed to 7.4% in January, down from 8.4% in December, so the rate hikes are having an effect on curbing inflation. Still, it will be a long road back to the inflation target of around 2%. The central bank is leaning to taking a pause at the April meeting and leaving the cash rate at 3.60%. Major central banks are moving away from continued tightening and the RBA will have to take that into account, as well as the Silicon Valley Bank crisis which has investors on edge about contagion spreading. Central banks have to be cautious with all the market turmoil, for fear that additional tightening would make a global recession more likely. Market pricing of rate moves has been gyrating like a yo-yo, and currently there is a 10% chance that the RBA will cut rates by 25 basis points at the April meeting. Just a month ago, the markets expected rates to peak at 4.1% in August. The SVB crisis has completely shifted pricing and the markets are currently expecting rates to fall to 3.35% by August.On There was more good news as Australian consumer inflation expectations for March ticked lower to 5.0%, down from 5.1% and below the forecast of 5.4%. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6639. Below, there is support at 0.6508 0.6713 and 0.6844 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
4
AUD/USD falls ahead of employment reportThe Australian dollar, which has posted strong gains early in the week, has run into a wall on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6638, down 0.66%. Australia releases the February employment report on Thursday (Australia time). Job growth is expected to rebound, with a consensus of 48,500 after a soft January read of -11,500. The unemployment rate is expected to tick lower to 3.6%, down from 3.7%. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be watching closely, as a robust labour market has enabled the central bank to continue its tightening - the Bank raised rates last week by 25 basis points, a 10th straight hike which brought the cash rate to 3.60%. The good news is that the end of the tightening cycle could be near, with the markets pricing in a pause at the April meeting. Consumers and businesses are weary of rising interest rates and confidence indicators do not paint an optimistic picture. Along with the job data, Australia releases consumer inflation expectations for March. The markets are braced for the indicator to rise to 5.4%, after a 5.1% gain in February. Inflation expectations is a key inflation gauge as it can set the direction of actual inflation, and the RBA will not be happy if inflation expectations accelerate. There is an uneasy calm in the air as the dust begins to settle after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. The sky is not falling, not even above US bank towers, as regional bank stocks have rebounded. The US inflation release on Tuesday delivered as expected, with both the headline and core CPI readings matching the estimates. Headline CPI fell to 6.0%, down from 6.4%, while the core rate ticked lower to 5.5%, down from 5.6%. Inflation is cooling but we're not seeing the disinflation process that the markets were celebrating only a few weeks ago. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6639. Below, there is support at 0.6508 0.6713 and 0.6844 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUD/NZD Retests Resistance Ahead of RBA Rate DecisionThe AUD/NZD currency pair has recently broken through a key support level and is now being retested as a resistance level. This development comes just before the RBA interest rate decision, which is expected to result in a 25-point increase. However, traders should keep an eye out for signs that the central bank is taking a more dovish stance or downplaying the current terminal rate, which could put downside pressure on the AUD. In light of recent negative economic data for the AUD, a shift away from a hawkish stance could exacerbate this downward trend. From a technical standpoint, if the AUD/NZD breaks below 1.0855 and maintains this level, it could be a good opportunity to sell this currency pair.
Short
by natron
10
AUDUSD RBA Decision 7th March 2023The AUDUSD remains "trapped" between the support (0.67) and resistance (0.6780) in the lead up to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision at 11:30am GMT+8 The current expectation is for a 25bps rate hike, to take the interest rates in Australia from 3.35% to 3.60%. Generally, since August 2022, every interest rate hike from the RBA had seen the AUDUSD trade lower. This trend was broken with the most recent decision in February. Currently trading at the 0.6746 price level, if the RBA does hike rates by 25bps AND signals that further rate hikes can be expected, the AUDUSD could trade up to the 0.6780 resistance level. However, at the resistance level, if the price fails to break higher, the AUDUSD could reverse back down and continue to be trapped within the range.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
4
NZDUSD Outlook 7th March 2023The NZDUSD traded lower before the US market session as the price broke below 0.62 to test the 0.6170 intermediate support area. However, due to the overnight weakness of the DXY, moves to the downside was sustained as the NZDUSD reversed strongly to reclaim and trade beyond the 0.62 resistance turned support level. With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision due today, the volatility and directional bias of the NZDUSD could be heavily influenced due to its correlation with the AUDUSD. While the AUDUSD usually drops following an interest rate decision from the RBA, the most recent decision in February saw the AUDUSD climb briefly higher. Therefore, if this upward move continues for the NZDUSD, the price could retest the 0.6260 resistance level, however, watch out for a potential hurdle at the 0.6234 price level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
AUDUSD Outlook 6th March 2023The AUDUSD traded with significantly choppy price action toward the end of last week. The price generally fluctuated along the 0.6750 price level before trading slightly higher, toward the resistance level of 0.6780, due to the weakness of the DXY. Although the AUDUSD has been trapped within the price range of 0.67 and 0.6780 in the short term, the current DXY weakness could see the AUDUSD trade slightly higher. However, look toward how the price action develops for a potential setup, with the RBA interest rate decision due tomorrow. Based on previous backtesting, the AUDUSD tends to trade lower following the RBA interest rate decision. Therefore, if by the news release tomorrow, the AUDUSD continues to trade below the 0.6780 resistance level, this could be a good setup for a retest of the 0.67 price level again.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
Key news events for the weekIt might be a big week head for the markets. Monday CHF CPI data release. The inflation gauge for the Swiss is expected to be lower than previous, signaling a slowdown in inflation growth. Could result in some weakness in the CHF if markets anticipate no more rate hikes to come from the SNB. Tuesday Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision. Another 25bps rate hike to come? However, the AUDUSD has often traded lower following the release of the news. Could the same thing happen again? Fed Chair Powell testifies during the US session. This could lead to increased volatility on the DXY, but watch what Powell says! Pivot? Or continue with the rate increases? Wednesday Bank of Canada (BoC) is set to hold rates at 4.50%. Unlikely that we'll see a surprise given how recent Canadian CPI has been released lower than previous (signaling a possible reversal in inflation). Friday Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to announce its monetary policy decision. This is Kuroda's last monetary policy meeting as Governor. While a surprise is unlikely, he might lay the foundations for his predecessor. Expect significant volatility on the Japanese Yen. Since it is the first Friday of the month, look out for the release of the US Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP). The data shouldn't surprise like the previous month, however, some stability in the employment data could see markets reconsider the FOMC's stance on further rate hikes, leading the DXY to trade lower. Whatever the news, watch out for my daily posts on the specific currency pairs as I update you on possible setups and price levels. Also, tune in to the Daily Live Stream at 3pm (GMT+8)!
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
4
AUD/USD jumps on inflation, China PMIsThe Australian dollar is showing strong gains for the first time in a week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6764 in Europe, up 0.53%. Australia's inflation fell to 7.4% in January, down from 8.4% in December and below the estimate of 8.0%. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that he was "cautiously hopeful" that inflation has peaked, but inflation still remained the economy's biggest challenge. The GDP report was not as positive, with a gain of 0.5% q/q in Q4, below the Q3 gain of 0.7% and the forecast of 0.8%. On an annualized basis, GDP slowed to 2.7% in Q4, down sharply from 5.9% in the third quarter. The RBA's rate-hike cycle has slowed economic activity and is responsible for the drop in inflation as well as the soft GDP. The central bank will have to consider how aggressive it should be with regard to future rate increases. Inflation needs to come down much further, but further rate hikes raise the risk of the economy tipping into a recession. The RBA is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points next week but may pause at the April meeting if the data, particularly inflation, allows the Bank to take to a breather. The Aussie received a boost today from strong Chinese PMIs. Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMIs improved in February and beat expectations, with readings of 52.6 and 56.3, respectively. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion. China is Australia's largest trading partner and a stronger Chinese economy means greater demand for Australian exports, which is bullish for the Australian dollar. China's transition from zero-Covid to reopening the economy has gone well so far and a rebound in China is important not just for China and the region but for the global economy as well. AUD/USD has support at 0.6656 and 0.6586 There is resistance at 0.6788 and 0.6858
by OANDA
AUDUSD Outlook 1st March 2023Overnight, the AUDUSD fluctuated between the 0.67 and 0.6760 price range as the DXY retraced lower but recovered in strength toward the end of the trading session. Early this morning, the AUD CPI was released at 7.4% (Forecast: 8.1% Previous: 8.4%) which was significantly lower than expected. This signals that the ongoing interest rate hikes from the RBA are taking effect in lowering inflation in Australia. However, a cost of the significant rate increases is the slowdown in the economy as the Australian GDP slid to 0.5% (Forecast: 0.8% Previous: 0.7%). The AUDUSD traded lower to test the 0.67 support level but rebound strongly to the upside, testing the bearish trendline. If the price breaks above the trendline, the AUDUSD could see further moves higher toward the near-term resistance area of 0.6780 before continuing with the downtrend, retesting the 0.67 round number support level and breaking below that. Beyond 0.67, the next key support level is 0.6630.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
AUDUSD retests 4H support after CPI dropHi, traders and TradingView community. Today we saw the AUDUSD retreat after Australian CPI data came in at 7.4, well below the 8.1% that had been expected. Unexpected data almost always has more impact on the market than expected, as it has shock effect. 7.4 is still a very firm number for inflation, and you might think, why is that a good thing? The drop is good, and it shows the RBA’s policy is working, and it also starts to put some doubt on the current rates outlook. But we’re wondering just how good it is. Yes, this could have an impact on the current rates policy, but we still feel that rates will have to continue higher to cut this figure back further. The AUDUSD continues to fight back after testing .6700. Price at this point remains in its 4H consolidation pattern. Could the market be thinking it’s a good drop, but work still has to be done? Will we see a retest of .6700 in tonight’s LON session? Buyers have .6752 resistance to beat, and sellers have .6700 to break. These are the 4H levels we are watching on the AUDUSD, and if one of them can be beaten, we will look to see if a new leg can develop. What are your thoughts? Good trading.
by Eightcap
AUD/USD eyes CPI, GDPThe Australian dollar remains under pressure and has edged lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD dropped below the 0.67 line on Monday for the first time since Jan. 3. Australian retail sales jumped 1.9% m/m in January, following an upwardly revised 4% decline in December and beating the consensus of 1.5%. The data indicates that consumer demand remains resilient despite rising interest rates and higher inflation. For the RBA, the upswing in consumer spending is a sign that the economy can continue to bear higher rates. The central bank has hiked some 325 basis points since May 2022 in a bid to curb inflation. The cash rate is currently at 3.35% and the markets have priced in a peak rate of 4.3%, with four rate hikes expected before the end of the year - one more than what is expected for the Fed. The RBA meets on March 7 and is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points. Wednesday could be a busy day for the Australian dollar, as Australia releases inflation and GDP reports. Inflation for January is expected to ease to 7.9% y/y, following an 8.4% gain in December. GDP for the fourth quarter is projected to slow to 2.7% y/y, after a robust gain of 5.9% in Q3. A decline in inflation and in GDP would indicate that high interest rates are having their intended effect and slowing economic activity. The question is whether the RBA will be able to guide the slowing economy to a soft landing and avoid a recession. In the US, a recent string of strong numbers has raised speculation that the Fed could raise interest rates as high as 6%. The unseasonably warm weather in January may have played a part in the better-than-expected numbers and we'll have to see if the positive data repeats itself in February. The markets have shifted their stance from a final rate hike in March with rate cuts late in the year to pricing in three more rate hikes in 2023. If upcoming inflation, employment and consumer spending reports point to a weaker economy, we can expect the markets to revert to pricing in a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve. AUD/USD has support at 0.6656 and 0.6586 There is resistance at 0.6788 and 0.6858
by OANDA
EURAUD: Expecting ECB to be more hawkish than RBA this weekWhere the ECB is being hawkish on rate hikes and has room for manoeuvre, the RBA is trying to be hawkish, but has less room due to low consumer sentiment / general backlash due to the increasing costs due to interest rates - it also seems as though inflation may have peaked, we'll find out soon enough if it's stabilising... In terms of price action, we look to have broken a descending dynamic trendline and we're retesting, I then expect a move up to 1.563 to test this resistance in the coming week.
Long
by Finchcliffe
AUD/USD rises on strong capital spendingThe Australian dollar has rebounded on Thursday, after a 2-day slide in which AUD/USD lost 100 points. In European trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6830, up 0.37%. On Wednesday, the Australian dollar fell to 0.6794, its lowest level since Jan. 6. Australia's private capital expenditure jumped 2.2% q/q in Q4 2022, rebounding from 0.6% in Q3 and above the estimate of 1.3%. Building capex sparkled with a 3.6% gain, after declining by 1.6% in the third quarter. The strong numbers have pushed the Aussie higher on Thursday. The capex release comes on the heels of wage growth, which slowed to 0.8% q/q in Q4 2022. This was lower than the 1.1% gain and the estimate of 1.0%. On an annualized basis, wage growth edged up to 3.3%, up from 3.2% but lower than the estimate of 3.5%. The RBA is keeping a close eye on wage growth, concerned that stubbornly high inflation could trigger a price-wage spiral that would entrench inflation expectations and complicate efforts to curb inflation. The FOMC minutes reiterated what we've been hearing from Powell & Co. for months. FOMC members said there were signs that inflation was heading lower but more rate hikes were needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target. The minutes noted that the labour market remains robust, which is contributing to continuing upward pressures on wages and prices." It should be noted that the minutes are somewhat stale, given the blowout employment report and the jump in retail sales which were released after the February meeting. These releases point to a surprisingly resilient US economy and could mean that members will become even more hawkish. An important takeaway is that although the vote to hike by 0.25% was unanimous, two members (Bullard and Mester) saw a case for a 0.50% increase. The markets widely expect another 0.25% hike in March, but the host of unexpectedly strong releases in recent weeks has raised the likelihood of a 0.50% move. We can expect market pricing to continue to shift as the US releases key data in the coming weeks ahead of the Mar. 22 meeting. AUD/USD has support at 0.6784 and 0.6690 There is resistance at 0.6907 and 0.7001
by OANDA
Aussie dips after soft wage dataThe Australian dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. In North American trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6824, down 0.47%. Australian wage growth was short of the forecast, with a gain of 0.8% q/q in Q4 2020. This was down from 1.1% in Q3 and below the forecast of 1.0%. Annual wage growth rose to 3.3%, up from 3.2% but below the estimate of 3.5%. This will be welcome news to the RBA, which is concerned that high inflation could lead to a price-wage spiral that would entrench inflation expectations and complicate efforts to curb inflation. The RBA has hiked interest rates by 325 basis points in the current cycle but the battle against inflation rages on. Inflation rose to 7.8% in Q4 2022, its highest level since March 1990. The central bank's steep tightening is yet to curb inflation, and Lowe faced criticism of his rate policy when he appeared before a parliamentary committee last week. Lowe told the lawmakers that high inflation was "dangerous" and reiterated that future rate moves would be data-driven. The cash rate is currently at 3.35% and the markets have priced a peak rate of 4.1%. The RBA has signalled that more rate hikes are coming and we're likely to see a 25-basis point hike for a fifth straight time at the March meeting, barring some unexpected data. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which will release the minutes of its February meeting later on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by 25 bp, but investors will be interested in the extent of support for a 50-bp hike at the meeting as a clue what to expect from the March 22 meeting. It was only a few weeks ago that the markets were confident that the March meeting would provide a 'one and done' rate increase and the Fed would cut rates late in the year. The blowout employment report, a strong retail sales release and higher-than-expected inflation have changed that narrative. The markets have moved closer to the Fed's hawkish stance, and Goldman Sachs and the Bank of America are projecting three more rate hikes in 2023. AUD/USD has support at 0.6784 and 0.6690 There is resistance at 0.6907 and 0.7001
by OANDA
AUDUSD Remains Bearish Despite Hawkish RBAMarkets are slow, they did not change much for the last sessions. Well, the only mover of the Asian session is AUD which found support at rallied after RBA hiked from 3.10% to 3.35% as expected. More important RBA mentioned that further hikes will be needed to bring down inflation, which is not a surprise after a latest jump in CPI figures. But despite the hawkish policy, AUDUSD did not gain that much, so I still think that further potential weakness on the pair can show up, but mostly because of USD domination after reversals last week. From an Elliott wave perspective, we see nice and clear five waves down, so more weakness will be expected after A-B-C. Nice resistance can be at 0.7-0.705.  We talked about aussie yesterday in LIVE WEBINAR here on tradingview. For recording CLICK HERE www.tradingview.com
Short
by ew-forecast
1
Looking ahead into February 2023 (AUD)Throughout the month of January, the AUDUSD traded consistently higher within a bullish channel, after bouncing off the 0.67 round number support level, at the start of the year. While the move higher was primarily driven by the weakness in the DXY, 2 CPI y/y data releases (inflation growth indicator) and no Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision provided additional stimulus to the climb higher. On the 11th of January, the CPI y/y data was released at 7.3% (Forecasted: 7.2% Previous 6.9%). The release of higher than previous data showed that inflation was still growing in Australia for the month of December, despite the RBA's approach of consistently hiking interest rates, to the current rate of 3.10%. Price reacted positively as it bounced off the 0.6870 level to trade higher. Again on the 25th of January , the CPI y/y data was released at 8.4% (Forecast: 7.6% Previous: 7.3%), this time for the month of January. Continual inflation growth, signaled to the market to increase bets for further rate hikes to come from the RBA. This time, the price broke through the 0.7045 previous swing-high and near-term resistance to trade strongly to the upside, testing the 0.7140 resistance area (last reached in August 2022). So, where could the AUD move to in February? The next directional movement of the AUDUSD will be highly dependent on the outcome of the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision on 2nd February. (read the DXY analysis in the link below) Anticipating some downside potential on the AUDUSD, if the US Federal Reserve raises rates without making a comment regarding a slowdown/pivot. The AUDUSD could break out of the current bullish channel to trade down to the 0.6870 price level. On the 7th of February, the RBA is due to release its interest rate decision, with current rates at 3.10%, the market expectation is for another rate hike of 25bps. It would be crucial to pay attention to the accompanying statement for hints regarding further rate hikes in 2023. However, the statement would most likely be in the tone of "future rate hikes will be data dependent, with an expectation for further inflation growth in the near term." Read my previous write up regarding the RBA interest rate decision. Price tends to fall following the release of a rate hike. Is this going to happen again for the AUDUSD in February? If the price breaks down from the bullish channel the next support level is at the 0.6870 level. Beyond the immediate resistance level of 0.7140, the next key resistance level is at the 0.73 price area.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
7
Another hawkish RBA hike, but will Jerome Powell turn AUD lower?Summary of the RBA’s February 2023 statement: • The RBA hiked the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.35% • Underlying inflation was above expectations at 6.9% • Strong domestic demand is adding to the inflationary pressures • CPI is expected to decline this year due to global factors and slower growth in domestic demand • Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case • The labour market remains very tight • Wages growth is expected to continue picking up due to the tight labour market and higher inflation • The board will continue to pay close attention to labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms in the period ahead • Further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead The RBA hiked the overnight cash rate by 25bp to 3.35% - its highest level since September 2012 – and warned of further increases in the months ahead. The two key words here are ‘increases’ and ‘months’, as it implies more than one hike over the coming months. And with rates at 3.35% it means the market pricing and consensus among economists for a terminal rate of 3.6% is not correct. Given that the employment situation remains robust, inflation is higher than they expected and ‘strong domestic demand is adding to inflationary pressures’, we have several green lights for a hike in March and perhaps in May. Perhaps we’re closer to the elusive pause they teased us with last year, but I see no immediate threat of one in that statement. And whilst the RBA expect CPI to decline as global factors and growth in domestic demands slows, what is going to happen if they do not slow quickly enough? Yep, more hikes. For now, a March hike seems like a done deal and I live in hope they hint at a pause, but I will not hang my hat on that given the data overall and strong levels of inflation. AUD/USD 1-hour chart: The Aussie bounce around 1% after the rate decision, but it is debatable as to whether it can retain its strength if Jerome Powell delivers a hawkish message overnight. The Fed’s rate remains above the RBA’s, with a higher expected terminal rate. AUD/USD found support around the 50-day EMA and has since spiked higher, but bears may want to seek evidence of weakness around 0.6900 as it houses the monthly pivot point and broken trendline. Of course, should Powell fail to deliver the hawkish message, then it leaves AUD (and other FX majors) more wriggle room to unwind some of their post-NFP losses.
Short
by CityIndex
AUD/USD slides after soft Aussie job reportThe Australian dollar has extended its slide on Thursday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6884 in Europe, down 0.82%. Australia's December employment report was weaker than expected, sending the Australian dollar sharply lower. The headline reading showed a loss of 14,600 in total employment, which may have soured investors. The release wasn't all that bad, as full-time jobs showed gains of 17,600, with part-time positions falling by 32,200. The unemployment rate remained at 3.5%, but this was a notch higher than the forecast of 3.4%. On the inflation front, recent releases point to inflation moving higher. November CPI rose to 7.3%, up from 6.9%, and the Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations climbed to 5.6%, up from 5.2%. We'll get a look at the all-important quarterly inflation reading next week. Inflation came in at 1.8% q/q in Q3, and an acceleration in Q4 would force the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider raising rates higher and for longer than it had anticipated. The cash rate is currently at 3.10%, and I expect the RBA will raise it to 3.50% or a bit higher, which means we are looking at further rate hikes early in the year. The US dollar seems to take a hit every time there is a soft US release, and this week has had its share of weak data. The Empire State Manufacturing Index sank to -32.9, while headline and core retail sales both fell by -1.1%. PPI came in at -0.5%. All three releases were weaker than the November readings and missed the forecasts, indicating that cracks are appearing across the US economy, as the bite of higher rates is being felt. The markets are clinging to the belief that softer numbers will force the Fed to ease up on its pace of rate hikes and possibly end the current rate-cycle after a 25-bp increase in February. The Fed has done its best to dispel speculation that it will pivot, but I expect the US dollar to lose ground if key releases are weaker than expected. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6893. Below, there is support at 0.6810 0.6944 and 0.7027 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Aussie shrugs off soft GDPThe Australian dollar is showing limited movement for a second successive day. In European trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6696, up 0.12%. Australia's economy underperformed in Q3, with a modest gain of 0.6% m/m. This was lower than the Q2 print of 0.9% and beneath the 0.7% consensus and also marked the weakest quarterly growth this year. Annualized GDP climbed 5.9%, an improvement from 3.6% in Q2 but shy of the consensus of 6.2%. The RBA is projecting that GDP will continue to slow through to 2024. The economy is showing clear signs of slowing down. Services, manufacturing and construction PMIs are all in decline. There was more bad news this week - Current Account for Q3 showed a deficit for the first time since 2019 and Company Operating Profits fell by 12.4% in the third quarter. Household spending remains strong, but high inflation continues to erode savings and consumers will have no choice but to cut back on spending at some point. Inflation has been more persistent than the RBA anticipated, and Governor Lowe has reiterated that inflation is a "scourge" that must be defeated. The RBA would prefer to avoid a recession, but it will be a tricky task to guide the economy to a soft landing. The RBA raised rates by 25 bp on Tuesday, bringing the cash rate to 3.10%. The move was widely expected. As a result, the Australian dollar showed a muted response. There was little of note in Governor Lowe's rate statement, which was almost identical to the November statement. Lowe noted that the RBA expects to increase rates, but "is not on a pre-set course" and rate decisions would be data-dependent. This last point may seem obvious, but events such as consumer spending, employment and inflation will be key drivers which determine rate policy in the early part of 2023. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to the terminal rate, which forecasts ranging from 3.3% all the way to 3.8%. This means there is some life left in the current rate cycle, and there is a strong possibility that the RBA will deliver another 25 bp hike at its next meeting in February. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6676 earlier. Next, there is support at 0.6558 There is resistance at 0.6760 and 0.6878
by OANDA