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Aussie stable ahead of RBA decisionIt was another tough week for the Australian dollar, as AUD/USD fell 2.53%. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading quietly at 0.7046. The RBA will be in the spotlight, as it holds its policy meeting on Tuesday. This meeting is live, as it's unclear what policy makers have planned. There's little doubt that the RBA is poised to embark on a rate-hike cycle, keeping in sync with the Federal Reserve and other major central banks. The uncertainty lies in whether the Bank will raise now, and if so, by how much. Inflation continues to spiral, hitting 5.1% in the first quarter. RBA Governor Lowe has long insisted that he would not raise rates until wage growth rose in order to ensure that inflation was not transitory. Well, wage growth is accelerating and nobody is using the T-word when describing inflation. With a robust labour market, the conditions are right for changing gears and moving away from the bank's loose monetary policy. A rate hike of 0.40% would be called for, but there is the issue of the federal election later this month. The RBA does not want to deliver an oversize rate hike in the middle of an election campaign, but at the same time needs to send a message to the markets that it is determined to contain inflation - standing on the sidelines would risk credibility. The compromise (which is the consensus) is that the RBA will raise rates, but only by 0.15%, with a further hike at the June meeting. A small hike will not send inflation on its heels by any stretch, but will send a slightly hawkish message, as this would be the first rate hike since 2011. With the Federal Reserve widely expected to raise rates by a half-point at its meeting on Wednesday, the Aussie could find itself under pressure this week, as it struggles to remain above the symbolic 0.70-line. There is support at 0.6992 and 0.6923 AUD/USD has resistance at 0.7125 and 0.7194
by OANDA
Interest rates, Inflation and how to trade it.Hey Traders, Massive week this week fundamentally for the Forex market. 3 big interest rate decisions being released so I thought there was no better time than now to have a chat about what it is, what it indicates and finally, how traders profit from it. Fed and BOE almost guaranteed to hike rates, RBA is sitting unsure. Have a watch of the video and I am more than happy to have a discussion in the comment section! As always, have a fantastic trading week and I wish you all many profits.
Education
by the5erstrading
4
AUDCHF Heading to the downside? (FUNDAMENTALS)Hey Traders, AUD is showing weakness as the RBA are ready to start hiking rates, this data is usually already priced into the market but it is the meeting minutes which indicate where we are heading into the future. Also expecting lower retail sales data later in the week. CHF is looking rather bullish, on the other hand with not much room for the Monetary Policy to ease the outlook is rather Dovish. The data releases do remain weak but with stocks heading lower I can see money flooding into the CHF. As you can see by the chart, we have formed and broken a clean flag pattern on the 4h timeframe. Keep an eye on how this chart runs and the reaction to the interest rate hikes by the RBA. Good luck traders!
Short
by the5erstrading
1
Australian dollar rebounds on hawkish RBAThe RBA sent a hawkish message to the markets, as the minutes from the April meeting provided a strong hint that a rate hike is coming sooner than had been expected. The minutes cited rising inflation and a tightening labor markets as developments that have "brought forward the likely timing of the first increase in interest rates". The last time the RBA raised rates was back in 2010, so the markets are eagerly awaiting the lift-off of what is expected to be a rate-hike cycle. All four of Australia's major banks are predicting that the RBA will hit the rate trigger in June. With Australians going to the voting booths on May 21st, the RBA would prefer to stay quietly on the sidelines in the middle of an election campaign. Still, the May meeting should be considered live, at least until the April inflation report comes out on April 27th.  A sharp gain in CPI could force the RBA to respond with a rate hike in May, with a strong possibility of a large hike of 0.40%. Things appear much simpler for the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to increase rates by 0.50% at its meeting in early May. Fed members, including the more dovish ones, have been sending out the message that the Fed must take aggressive action in order to contain soaring inflation, which hit 8.5% in March. On Monday, Fed member Bullard, a hawk, said that the Fed rate might need to rise to a "neutral" rate of 3.50% and suggested that a 0.75% hike was a possibility. Bullard's stance isn't a reflection of Fed policy, but the very suggestion of a 0.75% hike illustrates that the Fed plans to come out swinging come May. There is resistance at 0.7427, followed closely at 0.7462 There is support at 0.7324 and 0.7256
by OANDA
What is going on with AUD?AUD/USD has baffled trading breaking out of the years range to the topside last Tuesday after the RBA changed to a hawkish stance. AUD/USD rally was reversed sharply later in the week as US yields exploded and Oil eased back on Chinese lockdowns. Still market is expecting RBA to raise in June now so if the USD rally based on US Bond yields can stop or reverse then the AUD is in poll position to rally first. Big cluster of support here with 0.7380 old support and 0.7350 the trendline support for the whole uptrend. easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. “Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party."
Long
by easyMarkets
GET READY FOR SHORTFX:EURAUD The correction that occurred in the Australian currency was caused by a decrease in the trade balance in that country, causing corrections in several Australian currency pairs such as, AUD/USD , GBP/AUD , EUR/AUD and so on. Bearish potential still exists in the pair EUR/AUD Need to be careful, the rising inflation rate in Europe due to the turmoil of war, made the ECB want to raise interest rates in order to reduce the impact of inflation. This could cause an upward correction for the Euro.
Short
by ellael_ella
AUD/USD Outlook (5 April 2022)Overall, AUD/USD have been trending upwards. Following the RBA rate decision and statement, the AUD/USD rose significantly. The Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision to be released on Tuesday (5th April), indicated: - Unemployment rate to fall to below 4 per cent this year and to remain below 4 per cent next year. - Inflation has increased in Australia, but it remains lower than in many other countries; in underlying terms, inflation is 2.6 per cent and in headline terms it is 3.5 per cent. -The Board has wanted to see actual evidence that inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range before it increases interest rates. These signalled for earlier rate increases possibly in May (previously expected towards the end of the year) Following the trend, look for buying opportunities of AUD/USD if price continues to break above the resistance zone of 0.76000. Next resistance zone is at 0.78000.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
AUDCHF: Trend Continuation Likely As Prices Could Aim For 0.72!With rising inflation, the commodities linked currencies such as the AUD are set to keep appreciating in the near future! whereas on the other hand, the safehaven currencies such as the JPY and in this case the CHF, are all but set to drop in value in the coming months. This vast difference is based on the country's economic policies outlook. Here we are looking at the AUDCHF weekly chart and based on the fundamental outlook, trend continuation is a likely scenario. Now coming to the technical analysis part, AUDCHF has been in an uptrend for a long time and currently the price has tested the 0.70000 psychological resistance. The next resistance beyond 0.7000 lies at the 0.72000 region, however for this target to be attained, the concrete psychological resistance of 0.7000 must be cleared. The main criteria for this trade to be valid in this scenario would be for the monthly candle to close above 0.70000 psychological resistance. This would likely ensure that the level is cleared and thus the prices are ready to head higher. The stop loss should be placed beneath the rising weekly trendline and swing low. The take profit should be set at the next swing high, which is the 0.72000 region. Once the criteria is met, as for all the trades, a 1:1 RR is necessary to manage the risk. In this case we need to wait for the price to retrace if the criteria is met. Retracement should hit 0.68000 level after which a LONG trade could be executed. This would ensure we have a 1:1 RR. However shall the criteria be met and the take profit is hit first, then the trade becomes invalid!. Have a look at the main chart for clear picture on the instruction and explanation above. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more insights into Major & Minor currency pairs.
Long
by FX618Analysis
AUDUSD: Await Retrace Before Going LONG! 0.75000 The TargetWith weekly candle breaking out from the descending channel, the price is ready to target the next high at 0.75000. The price also formed good support at 0.70000 area with RSI indicating a bullish divergence! With that all said, it is advisable to wait for the price to retrace at the desired level and then execute a LONG trade. Trade can be invalidated if 0.75000 is HIT first. To get a clear picture have a look at the main chart. Cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
ridethepig | Australian Yields for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig AU02Y Market Commentary 18.12.2020 This position which arises after the telegraphed breakout from the 10Y and thus creates space for the front end. A typical manoeuvre for the AU and NZ yields: The analysis of the starting position shows us that the control now exists on the bid; because we know that it is the path of least resistance, so the rule is; when the market is strong we are buyers and when weak, we are sellers. The AUD which is being "flanked" from all sides (FED, RBNZ et al) now has commodity shortages entering into play to put the cherry on top. Remain bid AUD for as long as possible; maintain contact with commodities for this cycle. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:AU02YLong
by ridethepig
Australian dollar pauses after strong gainsThe Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday, after posting sharp gains at the start of the week. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7133, up 0.10% on the day. There are no tier-1 events out of Australia this week, but the data released this week is pointing upwards. The AIG Performance of Services Index for December and January punched past the 50-level into expansion territory, with a reading of 56.2, up from 49.6 beforehand. This was the first reading showing expansion in five months. This was followed by an excellent retail sales report for Q4, with gains of 8.2%, which was above expectations. Earlier today, the NAB Business Confidence survey in January jumped 15 points to +3, after a miserable -12 reading in December. However, the survey noted that business conditions weakened. With the government announcing that it will reopen the international borders and allow tourists in later this month, the economy should get a significant boost. At last week's RBA meeting, Governor Lowe said that a hike could be a year away or even longer, but the markets aren't buying it. Lowe is clearly in no rush to raise rates and may not have abandoned the view that inflation is transient and will ease in the near term. The markets, in contrast, are more hawkish and feel that high inflation will prompt the RBA to raise rates in the second half of 2022. In the US, we'll get a look at key inflation data on Thursday. The numbers could have an impact on the size of the expected rate hike next month. The markets have priced in a 33% chance of a 50-basis points hike. The Fed generally sticks to quarter-point moves, but may feel the need to inject a large hike in order to hit hard at inflation and res-establish credibility after taking heat for waiting too long to tighten policy. AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.7168 and 0.7258 There is support at 0.6987 and 0.6896 AUD/USD is near the 50% Fib of 0.7314-0.6968
by OANDA
Aussie steady as rally fizzlesThe Australian dollar headed lower earlier in the day before recovering. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7137, down 0.01% on the day. The RBA policy meeting went as expected, with the bank winding up its bond asset programme while preaching caution. Governor Lowe stressed that the end of QE did not mean that a rate rise was imminent and remained non-committal, saying that a hike could be a year away or even longer. Lowe reiterated that there are significant uncertainties as to recent inflationary pressures and that it was too early to determine if inflation was sustainably within the central bank's 2%-3% target band and said that there was no need to respond aggressively to inflation. Lowe is clearly in no rush to raise rates and may not have abandoned the view that inflation is transient and will ease in the near term. The markets, in contrast, are more hawkish and feel that high inflation will prompt the RBA to raise rates in the second half of 2022. Wage growth remains an obstacle to a rate hike, according to the RBA. Governor Lowe has stated that he will not raise rates prior to wage growth rising to 3.0%. We'll get a look at the 2022 forecast for wage growth on Friday when the RBA releases its monetary policy statement. The current projection stands at 2.5%, but if the bank revises this forecast upwards, it would reinforce expectations of a rate hike later in 2022. The RBA has been in the spotlight this week, overshadowing some positive economic releases. Building Approvals for December jumped 8.2% m/m, surprising the markets which had projected a 1.0% decline. The NAB business confidence index sparkled in Q4, climbing to 18, up from -2 beforehand. The end of Covid lockdowns invigorated the economy and gave a massive boost to business confidence. AUD/USD continues to test resistance at 0.7133. Above, we find resistance at 0.7271 There is support at 0.6913 and 0.6831
by OANDA
Aussie rises as RBA maintains ratesThe Aussie has rebounded nicely this week, recovering half the losses from last week, when it tumbled 2.5%. AUD/USD has edged higher and is trading just below the 0.71 level in the European session. There were no surprises from the RBA policy meeting earlier today. The central bank held the Cash Rate at a record low of 0.10% and announced that it would wind up its bond purchase program in February. The RBA had expected to retire the bond purchase scheme in May but brought the date forward due to better than expected employment and inflation data for December. The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.2%, while Core CPI is at 2.6%, in the middle of the RBA's target band of 2%-3%. These strong numbers could justify a rate hike, but the RBA has stuck to a dovish script, and Governor Lowe has tried to dampen rate hike expectations by saying that the bank will not before wage growth rises to 3%, which is not expected until 2023. In his statement, Lowe acknowledged that inflation had picked up, but said that it was too early to conclude that it was "sustainably" within the target band." The markets remain more hawkish about a rate hike and priced in a move in the second half of the year. Investors are betting that Lowe will have to hike before achieving his wage growth target due to surging inflation.  Any hints from the RBA about a rate hike would be significant, as the bank last raised rates back in 2010. The -4.2% reading came after five successive gains and was the sharpest drop since April 2020. This missed the consensus of a 3.9% gain. The Omicron variant has weighed heavily on consumer spending and this may be reflected in January and February retail sales reports as well. AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.7133. Above, we find resistance at 0.7271 There is support at 0.6913 and 0.6831
by OANDA
RBA and May31 Rate DecisionFundamentals: The RBA in December's meeting was a hawkish stance. This suggests that going forward, their monetary policy will continue to be hawkish. Coupled with that, given the pandemic's effects on the Australian economy, the Australian government's fiscal policy will be at the forefront of their minds in stimulating their economy. This is a two for one punch and should have effects on the Australian currency. Conclusions: We have a country that is forced in a corner to take action by their own desire and resolve to prop up their economy. We have a situation where risk has the potential to prevail should the economy is able to recover from the lockdown measures that took place recently. We have a populace that is mobile, able and ready to work should the pandemic situation has improves. This is potentially, good news for the currency. Trades: AUDNZD and AUDUSD
Long
by Rocketman
AUDUSD: Be Cautious Going Short! Multiple Resistance In The WayBearish RSI divergence on 4H charts. Is the price loosing momentum? is there consolidation ahead? Well, we should NOT expect the price to HIT 0.7000 straight away if the ascending 4H trendline breaks! The reason being simple, THERE ARE MULTIPLE RESISTANCE PRESENT IN THE WAY UNTIL WE REACH 0.70000 LEVEL! Just observe the chart and you would notice these obstacles. To trade this opportunity with extreme caution, it is advisable to break and trade. Focus on each individual level breach and trade accordingly. There is a risk that the price might reverse from any of these levels should the trader decide to take profit in one go at 0.7000. So breaking and trading on each individual level breach might be the best action a trader could execute in such conditions. Just observe the chart, no further explanations is needed here for now. Cheer, I hope you found this insight helpful & Happy Holidays
Short
by FX618Analysis
Australian dollar trading sidewaysTis the week of Christmas, which means eggnog, crackling fireplaces and thin liquidity in the markets. With Australian markets closed on Monday, the Aussie has shown little movement today and this should continue in the North American session. There are no Australian events on this week's calendar, so any movement of AUD/USD will come from events abroad. The US has mostly tier-2 releases this week, so events in China may have a magnified impact on the Aussie. There were some positive developments on the weekend in China. The PBOC said it would provide more support for the economy. As well, there were media reports that Evergrande has resumed most its home construction projects. The mammoth company owes more than USD 300 billion in liabilities, and any news concerning Evergrande could have an impact on the Australian dollar, as China is Australia's largest trading partner. With a very light calendar, market participants will have some time to focus on the RBA, which has been in the headlines frequently in recent weeks and published the minutes of the December meeting just last week. The minutes were cautiously optimistic. with the bank saying that it did not expect the Omicron variant to derail the economic recovery. Still, the bank noted that Omicron "posed additional uncertainty for the near-term outlook." Given the disparity between RBA guidance and the markets' expectations for a rate hike, this language is a signal that the bank has no intention of raising interest rates anytime soon. The month of December is all about volatility, and the Australian dollar has already delivered on that front, with significant movement. Liquidity will be thin as we head towards the New Year, which could mean further volatility, especially if there are further developments surrounding Omicron, good or bad.   0.7288 has held in resistance since mid-November. The next resistance line is at 0.7354 There is support at 0.7119 and 0.7016
by OANDA
AUDUSD: INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN COMPLETE ON 4H CHARTSAUDUSD is has completed an inverse head and shoulder pattern on 4H TF. Now it has set firm sight on the next high at 0.73400 which also happens to be an upper end of a descending parallel channel on daily TF. Strong concrete support lies at 0.7000 monthly support. This analysis is not meant to be a trading signal nor financial advice! Its highly advisable to perform your own analysis and trade markets at your own risk. Please LIKE & FOLLOW if you found this analysis helpful in assisting with your own personal analysis. Cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
EURAUD: Nice long setupLooks like we have a 2.61R potential trade in the Euro vs the Aussie dollar here. I'm long, thinking it can easily hit the target zone, considering that the $EURUSD down trend signal in the daily chart has panned out, $DXY hit the weekly target, and timing for a daily move in $EURUSD has elapsed, implying a possible mean reversion or reversal move in that pair. $AUDUSD is acting weak, and the ratio shows a good reward to risk high probability Time@Mode setup. Seems like an easy win. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
AUDJPY Swing trade + Fundamental DriversHello Traders! A technically and fundamentally appealing trade is developed in the Australian Dollar Against the Japanese Yen pair. Enter at lower timeframe trend line break. Stops below the last supply zone. Take profit at the swing highs. Fundamental Drivers: Australian Dollar (AUD) Fundamental Bias: Neutral 1. The country’s economic and health developments There are 4 key drivers we are watching for Australia’s med-term outlook: The virus situation – a Q3 GDP contraction is priced in, so eyes are firmly on Q4 data to see whether a strong rebound is possible. Look out for any good news with more reduction of lockdown measures. China – the slowdown in China is important as it’s Australia’s biggest export destination. Markets are watching to see whether the CCP and PBoC steps up with stimulus for the economy and possible support for the real estate sector. Politically, the recent defence pact between the US, UK and Australia could see retaliation from China against Australian goods. Commodities – Iron Ore, (24% of exports) have continued its drop, and to make matters worse we’ve seen Coal (18% of exports) prices are pushing lower alongside it. This is negative for Aus terms of trade and definitely a risk to keep on the radar in the sessions ahead. Global growth – as a favourite risk proxy, the market’s current question about whether we see a reflation in Q4 will be an important consideration for the AUD. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBA The RBA’s November decision can be summed up as hawkish in deed but dovish in word. The bank abandoned YCC as markets suspected as they didn’t choose to defend their target in the days leading into the meeting, and they also abandoned their date-based forward guidance that said a lift off in rates would only be appropriate in 2024, by rather saying that conditions for a hike will take ‘some time’. However, Governor Lowe tried his best to sound as dovish as possible by saying that they are prepared to look through temporary spikes in inflation and that market pricing for a hike by 2022 is far away from where their outlook is and is highly unlikely. Even though not all market participants would agree, we think the outlook for growth, inflation, employment and wages do suggest that a late 2022 could be possible, especially if the economy sees a solid bounce back from covid. However, for now, the bank has stuck to an overall dovish tone. Given the importance of wages to their inflation outlook, keeping close track of this week’s Q3 wage growth will be very important for the AUD. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the AUD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the AUD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the AUD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. Japanese Yen (JPY) Fundamental Bias: Bearish 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. With bond yields looking a bit stretched at the current levels any decent mean reversion is expected to be supportive for the JPY, so it remains a key asset class to keep track. Have a great week! Regards Vitez
Long
by Vitezabraham
Steady AUD & Weak YEN Could Make AUDJPY HIT 89.000AUDJPY could target the next high at 89.00 as the path remains clear with least obstacles. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS On the MONTHLY TF the monthly candle closed ideally above 85.000 crucial psychological resistance, indicating that the price is ready to head higher. On the main weekly chart we can see the price failed to break the higher high at 86.00, which is very crucial as the break here would likely remove all obstacles for the price to target the next high at 89.00. Therefore to trade with high probability, the weekly candle must first close above 86.00. Once this happens, the price is highly likely to target 89.00 without much obstacles on the way up. The ascending channel kind of acts a guide for the price to climb steadily with both M & W EMA acting as strong dynamic support. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Now here is the bold statement: WEAKER YEN & STEADY AUD should make AUDJPY appreciate! Japan's economy faces a tough road ahead compared to its G-7 peers, with the lowest projected rate of growth for 2021, according to the International Monetary Fund. The supply-chain issues plaguing the global economic landscape have hit Japan especially hard. Japan's gross domestic product contracted an annualized 3.0 percent on year in the third quarter of 2021. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP sank 0.8 percent - again missing forecasts for a fall of 0.2 percent following the downwardly revised 0.4 percent gain in the second quarter. For the AUD its not a surprise that USD CPI reading last week caused the currency to depreciate. Last week the NAB business conditions and confidence data came in stronger than last month, as did the Westpac consumer confidence survey. The downside for the AUD came via the jobs numbers last week. The unemployment rate rose to 5.2% VS 4.8%. Employment fell by 46K VS 50K. 26th September to 9th October was the period covered for this data. Therefore this did not capture a large amount of population coming out of lockdown. Next month’s jobs data will play a major role and show us how is the economy faring. Considering all this. the AUD might appreciate especially against the weaker currencies like the YEN and we could well see AUDJPY HIT 89.00.
Long
by FX618Analysis
AUD rises, RBA minutes nextThe Australian dollar has started the week in positive territory, extending the gains seen on Friday.  AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7364, up 0.47% on the day. It's a light calendar in  Australia this week, with no major economic releases. The highlight from Down Under will be the RBA minutes from the November meeting, which will be released on Tuesday. The RBA didn't adjust the cash rate or its bond-purchase programme at the meeting, but did abandon its yield curve, which was an important component of its monetary policy. The central bank retreated after trying unsuccessfully to defend a 0.10% target on 3-year Australian bonds, and the Australian dollar fell sharply in response. Given this latest drama with the RBA, the minutes could prove to be a market-mover. With core CPI rising to the bank's target band and inflation expectations above 4%, the RBA's message that inflation is transitory is becoming a tough sell to sceptical markets. Governor Phillip Lowe has not veered from this stance that the bank will not raise rates before 2024, but I would not be surprised if the minutes show that some bank members are in favour of an earlier date. We continue to see a disconnect between RBA guidance and market expectations, which is certainly not an optimal situation, as it puts the RBA's credibility at risk. The markets are much more hawkish than the RBA and have priced in several rate hikes for 2022, with the cash rate projected to approach 1.0% by the end of next year. Will the RBA stick to its guns, or will it become more hawkish? Investors will be hoping for some clarity, or at least some clues from bank policy makers in the minutes as well as at the December policy meeting. There is resistance at 0.7416. 0.7502 is next There are support lines at 0.7261 and 0.7192
by OANDA