AUDUSD Cautiously Bullish As US PI Data Looms This is the Weekly FOREX Forecast for the week of July 14 - 18th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: AUDUSD
The AUDUSD has been grinding higher for weeks. Only Friday closed with a hint of a pullback starting. The RBA is looking for the US CPI Data to post. If the inflation numbers are a bit hot, this will strengthen the USD against the AUD. A soft CPI should see the market pricing back in higher chances of a third cut by year-end and weigh on the US dollar.
We'll see how the market reacts on Tuesday.
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Rbacashrate
The RBA just made a small (but big) change to their statementThe RBA held rates at 4.35% as expected, but there were several changes to their December statement which warrant a closer look. I highlight the key differences to the November statement and provide my interpretation of what it means for the RBA's policy as we head into next year, then look at AUD/USD.
MS
ASX 200 @ 2 NOV 20212 November 2021 – Market Watch
The last time I did an analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 was on 26 October (red arrow). I said that it was good that Blue Arrow No. 4 didn’t look likely to take place and that’s a good sign for the short-term. How wrong I was as the ASX 200 quickly retraced to fall below the (i) 7400 psychological support, (ii) short-term support, and (iii) mid-term support.
In last Sunday’s FB livestream, I was lamenting that the US indices continue to create new all-time highs but the ASX 200 tries to find every opportunity to disappoint. A head-and-shoulder chart pattern is forming and a break at the neckline (7250 levels) could spell trouble for the short- to mid-term.
With last week’s inflation numbers coming in higher than expected, investors are pricing in an early interest rate hike. Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Governor did nothing to calm investors’ nerves by not reiterating that official interest rates will not be increased until 2024.
Interest hikes are a tool to counter the rise on inflation. Inflation is usually a sign of the broader market recovering more people re-joining the workforce, increase in wages, increase in spending, etc. At the same time, interest hikes also mean that the cost of borrowings will increase and thus, temper any potential spending sprees like properties, quick business expansions, etc.
As seen in the US in late September, any talk of bond tapering can spook the markets as that is a precursor to interest rate hikes. With no confirmation that the RBA will wait till 2024 to increase rates, there is a potential that the ASX 200 will see more downwards pressure in the coming days.
The US markets recovered from their September scare to create new all-time highs. How about the ASX 200? Will it recover above 7600? Or are we looking at a re-test of the 7150-7250 support zone again?
I’m personally avoiding the big caps while being more selective with my purchases. How about you? Is this another opportunity to average down? Or are you waiting for more signs of recovery?
If you find this market analysis helpful, let me know in the comments. May the markets continue to be with us!