The RBA just made a small (but big) change to their statementThe RBA held rates at 4.35% as expected, but there were several changes to their December statement which warrant a closer look. I highlight the key differences to the November statement and provide my interpretation of what it means for the RBA's policy as we head into next year, then look at AUD/USD.
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Rbarates
AUDUSD speculative BUY as RBA Interest Rate DecisionAUDUSD currently traded in the downtrend movement. As we see in the weekly chart, the downshift movement starts from October as USD move stronger belong to strong economic data followed by investor's optimism of second Trump Presidential era.
Tomorrow, 10/12/24 RBA would give us signal about it's interest rate. Consensus is 4,35% and we may anticipate the movement if the actual data shows 4,35%. It may cause the upward shift as technical analyst see the movement already bounced from it's weekly trendline support. The upward correction movement would as high as 0.650xx using Fibbonacci Internal Retracement tools.
But, if the data shows us <4,35% it may cause more deep movement for the AUDUSD and we need to review again in further movement. I anticipated the movement and see BUY opportunity in this pair.
GBPAUD | Daily | Trade IdeaAhead of tomorrow’s RBA Interest rate announcement I’ll be looking closely at GBPAUD, as we can see from the current GBPAUD chart from a top-down and a down-up perspective we can take note of the fact that after managing to break out of the downward retracement last month, GBPAUD mamaged to push steadily upward until reaching our 1.94150 area before “losing momentum” forming a consolidation which has lasted for the past few days from the 17th of January till today where it has been steadily trading sideways.
With the RBA Interest rate decision underway we can expect GBPAUD to finally choose a direction and breakout of the current consolidation, and from my analysis I can expect the GBPAUD to break in an upward/bullish direction pushing towards our 1.97xxx level hence I’ll be looking to hold my current GBPAUD (BUY) positions for now which haven’t yielded much results thus far.
Will be sharing more updates on GBPAUD towards the end of trading tomorrow or early Wednesday morning.
Please take note that this analysis is comprised solely of my personal opinions and outlook of the current market and should not be mistaken for financial advice or indication to enter into a particular trade, please confirm with your own analysis first before entering any trades based on the information from the current chart.
EURAUD SHORT SIGNAL BEFORE AUSTRALIAN RATESOn the EURAUD currency pair, we have a bearish setup today with the price retracing to the 61% Fibonacci level. This occurs within a fair value gap, confirmed by the M15 and H1 timeframes, and inside a supply zone with volumes in H1 pushing the price down. The target is located in the 1.6163 area. However, the trade carries a certain risk as important economic announcements are expected in Australia tomorrow morning. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion and leave a like to support our work. Greetings from Iccola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
AUD/JPY - Can the AUD outperform the JPY?COMMENTARY
The AUD seems to be gaining the most against the JPY compared to the following G10 Fx pairs including the NZD, CAD, EUR, and the USD in front of tomorrow's Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) interest rate decision. High price action across the AUD cross pairs is expected upon tomorrow's RBA rate decision.
Current price for the AUD/JPY is above its 40 day moving average (bullish), MACD above its signal line (bullish), rate of change 13 day above its signal line (bullish); upside potential for a retest of the 92.8s provided price can remain above the 89.9 support; downside risk on break below the 89.9 support could position short sellers to target the 87.90 area.
Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Dip buying on GBPAUD ahead of the RBA rate decisionGBPAUD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.7580 (stop at 1.7512)
Previous resistance at 1.7570 now becomes support. Support could prove difficult to breakdown. We expect a reversal in this move. Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 1.7780 and 1.7800
Resistance: 1.7750 / 1.8120 / 1.9100
Support: 1.7570 / 1.7200 / 1.6200
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RBA and May31 Rate DecisionFundamentals:
The RBA in December's meeting was a hawkish stance. This suggests that going forward, their monetary policy will continue to be hawkish. Coupled with that, given the pandemic's effects on the Australian economy, the Australian government's fiscal policy will be at the forefront of their minds in stimulating their economy. This is a two for one punch and should have effects on the Australian currency.
Conclusions:
We have a country that is forced in a corner to take action by their own desire and resolve to prop up their economy. We have a situation where risk has the potential to prevail should the economy is able to recover from the lockdown measures that took place recently. We have a populace that is mobile, able and ready to work should the pandemic situation has improves. This is potentially, good news for the currency.
Trades:
AUDNZD and AUDUSD