RBC
RY (Royal Bank of Canada) | 10% Short Trade SetupConfirmation: 103.60
Invalidation: Local high
Type of Trade: Countercyclical (EMA50 above EMA200)
Target: 92.19
TF:4HR
Leverage: 2x
Pattern: 1) daily double top with 2) trendline break, 3) untested 8/1 Gann, and 4) frothy fundamentals (insufficient loan loss provisions).
Short Royal Bank of Canada (RY)Short NYSE:RY
Fundamentals
NYSE:RY has over $222 billion in debt, which are mostly mortgages sensitive to interest rates rising.
Interest rates will remain low, which will cause a falling dollar.
The Canadian oil industry is a lot worse than USA and other parts of the world with break even costs at $60-65+ for oil sands. See the WCS Western Canada Select index.
Falling oil prices lead to a weaker dollar, but help exports.
Other Central Banks are raising interest rates, which will cause the CADUSD to weaken compared to others. This could cause a currency crisis which could lead to raising interest rates quickly.
Falling CADUSD is negative on Canadian equities.
Technicals and Trends
The long term trend line has been broken.
The 200 day moving average has been broken.
Notice the green oval, it is the same pattern in 2016 when the USDCAD was rising (CAD falling).
Disclaimer:
I am not a professional trader.
These are my personal notes for my use only.
I do not give trading advice.
I take no responsibility for any actions taken or losses occured from using the information provided.
Thanks and enjoy.