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Rbnz

SELL NZD ON DIVERGENT MONETARY POLICY"We recommend selling NZDUSD targeting 0.7130 with a stop-loss at 0.7315, implying a reward-to-risk ration of 2:1 (spot reference: 0.7252). In stark contrast to the Fed, the RBNZ is likely to strike a dovish tone in its March Statement, given recent disappointing activity data. Following the February MPS meeting, Assistant Governor and Chief Economist, John McDermott, noted in an interview with Bloomberg that while the central bank’s stance was neutral with “a significant probability that the next rate move could be an increase sometime in the future” he added “there’s also a substantial probability that the next move could actually be a cut. If we saw big moves in inflation expectations, the market should expect the bank to act.” As noted above, NZD may experience further downward pressure if a more hawkish Fed creates an environment of higher US interest rates and weaker equities, given that its high sensitivity to these variables will likely be exacerbated by a lack of real rate advantage, FX overvaluation, and a highly responsive government bond market." - BARCLAYS
Short
by itzbert
AUDNZD: 2017 AU$ appreciated +600 pips Low to High before MarchFX:AUDNZD Someone called me 'dramatic' I just love it! Let's keep having fun while 'banking' a more dimmes (Ocean Thirteen). Sure, going back to the idea. 1)Last year, between January and April this cross appreciate 660-pips from the low in Jan. 1.0323 handle to the high in March 1.1017 handle. 2)What if it continues, after all, RBA seems to be eager to move soon to reduce households debt and tight a bit over there. Yes, you haven't heard, right? Well, It seems Real Estate went out of control in Sydney and now consumers are far too in debt (where have I seen this...?) 3)NZ$ as usual, vulnerable on the dairy front, milk not milking it. 4)A primitive analysis I know, but could 2018 be the 'Continuation Year' not too different from the $EURUSD or $GBPUSD long trades. 5)I should be playing this with a full standard lot, just for the records.
Long
by josericaurte.jaen
AUDNZD - 240 Pips Upside TargetAfter an impulsive bullish move on 19th October, price has been developing correctively, and has hit the minimum target for a decent retracement between 50% and 61.8%. As long as price remains above the structural trend line, we remain bullish on AUDNZD and can potentially target 1.1332 area. We are having the RBA and RBNZ Rate Statement this week which might provide us the catalyst to move price. Disclaimer - make sure you have a proper trading plan before taking any trades.
Long
by KarYong
4
NZDUSD - Bearish Bias Going Into RBNZ Rate StatementThe focus for this week will definitely be on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), a.k.a the Kiwi. The New Zealand’s central bank – the Reverse Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be releasing their latest Official Cash Rate and the Rate Statement this Thursday. Since the interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1.75%, the key will be the tone of the Rate Statement. A dovish tone will see more selling pressure on the NZD; while a hawkish tone will see the NZD being support by the bulls. Based on our analysis, we are holding a bearish bias on the NZD. Since late July this year, the NZDUSD has fallen from the high at 0.7557 to the low at 0.7131 in a 5-wave structure; and has since bounced higher towards the recent high at 0.7434 in a 3-wave structure. According to Elliott Wave Principle, a complete price cycle comprises a 5-wave move, followed by a 3-wave correction. With that, the correction in NZDUSD is deemed to be completed, and we are now expecting more downside potential for this currency pair.
Short
by KarYong
NZDUSD - RBNZ to be the catalyst to push the Kiwi lower?This week there are relatively less risk events in the currency market - the only one worth highlighting is RBNZ Rate Statement happening on Thursday morning here in Singapore. Here are a few reasons why I'm expecting the Kiwi to weaken in the near term - 1) We are currently in a 6th swing, thus we are expecting one more move lower since this is not a complete swing cycle; 2) Price has met the minimum fibonacci requirement for an expanding flat structure; 3) Price is currently at the top of the bearish channel; and 4) On the lower timeframe, price is also showing signs of exhaustion. With these simple technical analysis, I have a stronger bias in looking for shorting opportunities on NZDUSD rather than longing it. However, do take note that this are only my personal views and I may jolly well be wrong too :P So trade according to your plan and manage your risk ALWAYS! **Quiz - what other information or 'edge' can we get to enhance our analysis on the NZD?
Short
by KarYong
6
Retracement Off Dovish RBNZ StatementThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand was surprisingly more Dovish than expected. This caused the price of all NZD pairs to weaken. This is a simple trade. Wait for the price to retrace and then hop in. There are two good spots: 1.58500 & 1.58050. These are the 28.6% and 38.2% Fib Retracement levels and they are previous support/resistance lines on the hourly chart. The entry at 1.58500 is the more risky of the two; however, it is also more likely to occur. I am targeting 1.6000 as my take profit, as that was the high last week. And, I have my Stop loss below the 61.8% fib level. As that level is also a previous support/resistance level: 1.5735
Long
by basquefxb1
NZDUSD: Interesting setupI'm entering gradually into a long position here. $NZDUSD has built a significant monthly mode here, which could evolve into a breakout and eventual monthly uptrend. The weekly is neatly oversold into support, and flashed a buy signal courtesy of RgMov, so going long gradually here is a good idea. Don't risk much, I would consider a drop below 0.689 a good invalidation level for this trade. 4h and daily charts show potential for a rally as well, so you could see rapid progress within a couple days, hence, you should average in during 3 days until you have maxed the risk on the trade. Risk a maximum of 0.5-1%. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
To seek short entry point on NZDUSD In this week, there have important economy events which flow through into NZD performance. On Tuesday (London trade time), GDT index will be published. After 2 continuous negative changed on GDT index, expected it will not be good reading in this time. Then, RBNZ rate announcement will be on Thursday (Asia trade time). According to market consensus, its rate will remained unchanged and RBNZ keep their view on NZ inflation lower expectation. If not hawkish sign appear on its statement, NZD shall be depreciated on the time prior to next rate announcement on May.
Short
by AdamHeng
RBNZ rate decision & NZDUSD at confluence resistanceWe observe a tug of war between buyers and sellers near .7280 -.7310 area, here lies the confluence resistance, channel bottom line crossing the down trend line. 1- RBNZ rate decision may give the direction cues. 2- Longer term down-trend is still intact with resistance @ .7740 handle, but since Aug 2015 kiwi showing resilience against greenback. 3- we have short term bullish bais above .7220 and looking to enter long once RBNZ rate decision announced. 4- From commodity bloc both aussie and kiwi are performing better against king dollar as compared to CAD which may struggle further as OIL remain range bound.
Long
by ashfaq.hussain.duggal
NZDUSD: Once again, retracing for more shortsNZDUSD can be bought, it was a long against the trend a day or two ago, and if it stays above the 'Bullish if above level' you can hold longs in it and aim higher. If it breas the resistance above (the low of the Brexit day) it could go and test the 'Brexit key level' which is the level sitting at 0.71342. I don't think it can go into a full blown uptrend, but rather, start a significant retracement in a longer term and a much stronger and sharper downtrend. So this is probably just the beginning. You can either long here, buy dips, or if you're long, hold, look to add on dips and move stops to 0.69196. Risk 0.5-1% per trade entry, and aim to trail stops after we advance above resistance, and start thinking of shorting this market at 0.71342 with a wide stop. The preferred method would be to use no stop, and enter over 5 days after hitting this level, as long as we don't close above it, and then trade with a LOW above that range. Seeing new lows after we arrive there would confirm the downside is inminent, but we still need to see if we can in fact break that level. As you know, I'm long precious metals for a couple days now, that's why I didn't buy this pair which is highly correlated with gold anyway. I'm also long TLT as a hedge to my equity trades, which is also correlated to this risk off theme. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
NZDCAD: Potential uptrend continuation trade$NZDCAD offers a low risk buy opportunity here. You can establish a position buying gradually at the close of each day until Friday's close. Position size should be 0.15 lots per every 10k in your account more or less. A stop loss is detrimental, but we want to see the low hold for a week here. Potential upside is considerable, so it's worth taking this trade as a nice alpha source in your portfolio. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
10
AUDNZD Elliott wave trade signal: Can Santa rally pull AUDNZD?Talking Points: Technical Strategy: Bullish can be confirmed soon Elliottwave Count: Wave 2 can mark completed Analysis As per previous analysis, AUDNZD (Australian dollar / NewZealand dollar) was expecting to complete it's wave 2 correction @ 1.0350 after having an high over 1.0726. We were seen corrective move towards 1.0350 in expanded flat correction. We also had a nice bounce from channel support and horizontal support from 1.0350 levels. We are considering it's reversal trend and able to count five wave upwards move in lower time frame. Considering that analysis, we are targeting wave (iii) in coming months which can at-least target above 1.0726. However, we under estimated correction target and correction is still in progress. We are now seeing complex w-x-y correction in placed. We are marking that correction over as we see inner bearish trend line breakout. We will gain more confidence once we have trend line breakout which was drawn from wave 1 towards wave (x) and B. Breakout level can be on 1.0500. However, we are optimistic here and putting correction complete and look for impulse movements in wave 3. We are looking for break of 1.0488 to confirm our analysis Action We re-initiated our long position with definite stoploss.(No Action now) -- By Hoagtrading.com (Twitter: @Hoagtrading)
Long
by Hoag
NZDUSD Short coveredTalking Point: Technical Strategy: Bearish Elliottwave View: Bear count confirmed Analysis From our last December's analysis on NZDUSD (New Zealand dollar vs US dollar), nothing much changed. We are on bear trend count and able to break and trade outside corrective channel. We are considering as wave 2 wave and counting sub wave 3 for larger bear move. On shorter term wave cycle, we are considering bearish wave3 of 3 will continue and can target 6900 and below. We are now expecting channel breakout or some smaller correction in current price @ 6897. Action We are running short position @ 0.7035 and we closed our position here @ 6897 before we entered into vacation. To get more information on trade, please login into "Trade Signal" area. -- By Hoagtrading.com (Twitter: @Hoagtrading)
by Hoag
NZDUSD: Potential turning pointNZDUSD is at a good support zone, and could turn up from here, following gold, which is very oversold. I'm waiting to enter long here, I'd like to see how today's bar acts, to buy into strength going forward. You shouldn't rush into gold or NZDUSD longs right away, but, should monitor how today behaves first. The negative news surrounding New Zealand serve as an extra ingredient, to give us enough bearish sentiment for a bottom in here: www.bloomberg.com Live cattle and milk futures remain bullish, and gold might be about to bottom after stopping out longs and making perma-bulls give up, hopefully, very soon. If you want to learn more about the trade entry, and risk management, contact me via pm. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
AUDNZD November Month Technical: Can RBNZ make wave 3 move?Talking Points: AUDNZD Technical Strategy: Re-initiating Long position Elliottwave Count: Reversal is in process after wave 2 completion Analysis AUDNZD is expecting to complete it's wave 2 correction @ 1.0350 after having an high over 1.0726. We were seen corrective move towards 1.0350 in expanded flat correction. We also had a nice bounce from channel support and horizontal support from 1.0350 levels. We are considering it's reversal trend and able to count five wave upwards move in lower time frame. Considering that analysis, we are targeting wave (iii) in coming months which can atleast target above 1.0726. Action We are re-initiating a long position again after had a handsome profit on long from Sept month at level 1.0337. We also defined entry, exit and stoploss criteria in trade signal section.
Long
by Hoag