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Rbnz

RBNZ rate decision & NZDUSD at confluence resistanceWe observe a tug of war between buyers and sellers near .7280 -.7310 area, here lies the confluence resistance, channel bottom line crossing the down trend line. 1- RBNZ rate decision may give the direction cues. 2- Longer term down-trend is still intact with resistance @ .7740 handle, but since Aug 2015 kiwi showing resilience against greenback. 3- we have short term bullish bais above .7220 and looking to enter long once RBNZ rate decision announced. 4- From commodity bloc both aussie and kiwi are performing better against king dollar as compared to CAD which may struggle further as OIL remain range bound.
Long
by ashfaq.hussain.duggal
NZDUSD: Once again, retracing for more shortsNZDUSD can be bought, it was a long against the trend a day or two ago, and if it stays above the 'Bullish if above level' you can hold longs in it and aim higher. If it breas the resistance above (the low of the Brexit day) it could go and test the 'Brexit key level' which is the level sitting at 0.71342. I don't think it can go into a full blown uptrend, but rather, start a significant retracement in a longer term and a much stronger and sharper downtrend. So this is probably just the beginning. You can either long here, buy dips, or if you're long, hold, look to add on dips and move stops to 0.69196. Risk 0.5-1% per trade entry, and aim to trail stops after we advance above resistance, and start thinking of shorting this market at 0.71342 with a wide stop. The preferred method would be to use no stop, and enter over 5 days after hitting this level, as long as we don't close above it, and then trade with a LOW above that range. Seeing new lows after we arrive there would confirm the downside is inminent, but we still need to see if we can in fact break that level. As you know, I'm long precious metals for a couple days now, that's why I didn't buy this pair which is highly correlated with gold anyway. I'm also long TLT as a hedge to my equity trades, which is also correlated to this risk off theme. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
NZDCAD: Potential uptrend continuation trade$NZDCAD offers a low risk buy opportunity here. You can establish a position buying gradually at the close of each day until Friday's close. Position size should be 0.15 lots per every 10k in your account more or less. A stop loss is detrimental, but we want to see the low hold for a week here. Potential upside is considerable, so it's worth taking this trade as a nice alpha source in your portfolio. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
10
AUDNZD Elliott wave trade signal: Can Santa rally pull AUDNZD?Talking Points: Technical Strategy: Bullish can be confirmed soon Elliottwave Count: Wave 2 can mark completed Analysis As per previous analysis, AUDNZD (Australian dollar / NewZealand dollar) was expecting to complete it's wave 2 correction @ 1.0350 after having an high over 1.0726. We were seen corrective move towards 1.0350 in expanded flat correction. We also had a nice bounce from channel support and horizontal support from 1.0350 levels. We are considering it's reversal trend and able to count five wave upwards move in lower time frame. Considering that analysis, we are targeting wave (iii) in coming months which can at-least target above 1.0726. However, we under estimated correction target and correction is still in progress. We are now seeing complex w-x-y correction in placed. We are marking that correction over as we see inner bearish trend line breakout. We will gain more confidence once we have trend line breakout which was drawn from wave 1 towards wave (x) and B. Breakout level can be on 1.0500. However, we are optimistic here and putting correction complete and look for impulse movements in wave 3. We are looking for break of 1.0488 to confirm our analysis Action We re-initiated our long position with definite stoploss.(No Action now) -- By Hoagtrading.com (Twitter: @Hoagtrading)
Long
by Hittesh
NZDUSD Short coveredTalking Point: Technical Strategy: Bearish Elliottwave View: Bear count confirmed Analysis From our last December's analysis on NZDUSD (New Zealand dollar vs US dollar), nothing much changed. We are on bear trend count and able to break and trade outside corrective channel. We are considering as wave 2 wave and counting sub wave 3 for larger bear move. On shorter term wave cycle, we are considering bearish wave3 of 3 will continue and can target 6900 and below. We are now expecting channel breakout or some smaller correction in current price @ 6897. Action We are running short position @ 0.7035 and we closed our position here @ 6897 before we entered into vacation. To get more information on trade, please login into "Trade Signal" area. -- By Hoagtrading.com (Twitter: @Hoagtrading)
by Hittesh
NZDUSD: Potential turning pointNZDUSD is at a good support zone, and could turn up from here, following gold, which is very oversold. I'm waiting to enter long here, I'd like to see how today's bar acts, to buy into strength going forward. You shouldn't rush into gold or NZDUSD longs right away, but, should monitor how today behaves first. The negative news surrounding New Zealand serve as an extra ingredient, to give us enough bearish sentiment for a bottom in here: www.bloomberg.com Live cattle and milk futures remain bullish, and gold might be about to bottom after stopping out longs and making perma-bulls give up, hopefully, very soon. If you want to learn more about the trade entry, and risk management, contact me via pm. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
AUDNZD November Month Technical: Can RBNZ make wave 3 move?Talking Points: AUDNZD Technical Strategy: Re-initiating Long position Elliottwave Count: Reversal is in process after wave 2 completion Analysis AUDNZD is expecting to complete it's wave 2 correction @ 1.0350 after having an high over 1.0726. We were seen corrective move towards 1.0350 in expanded flat correction. We also had a nice bounce from channel support and horizontal support from 1.0350 levels. We are considering it's reversal trend and able to count five wave upwards move in lower time frame. Considering that analysis, we are targeting wave (iii) in coming months which can atleast target above 1.0726. Action We are re-initiating a long position again after had a handsome profit on long from Sept month at level 1.0337. We also defined entry, exit and stoploss criteria in trade signal section.
Long
by Hittesh
AUDNZD: Looking for long opportunityTalking Point: Technical Strategy: Turning Bullish Elliottwave View: Possibly flat correction over. Analysis We were bullish on AUDNZD since Sept month and booked handsome profit on reversal 1.0340. We now looking to re-initiate long position on confirmation. Current pricing structure suggesting a flat correction near previous wave 4 region. This region provide target zone for wave 1 after reversal. As current price is trading in a channel, we are seeking for few confirmation to mark this as a flat correction and initiating long position with defined stoploss. Action Looking for long opportunity for targeting above 1.0910 -- By @Hoagtrading (Hoagtrading.com)
Long
by Hittesh
NZDUSD: Weekly buy setupNZDUSD has a nice swing trade opportunity that can evolve into a continuation of the weekly uptrend. Buy a break of the last session's high, stop at the low. I copied a previous rally, after the weekly got oversold to get an idea of what to expect. The price tested Brexit support as well as an inside trendline in the weekly, so I think it's highly probable to get a sharp rally out of this zone, specially with China coming back from a week of public holidays, which will bring fresh demand for commodities, boosting asian currencies and metals. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
SHORT AUDNZD - STRAT TRADE: 99.5% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALSHORT AUDNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) AUDNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1.045 level. Trading Strategy: 1. Sell AUDNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower (it could be several days). TP is the next/ First daily close higher. Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
8
SHORT AUDNZD - STRAT TRADE: 99.5% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALSHORT AUDNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) AUDNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1.045 level. Trading Strategy: 1. Sell AUDNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower (it could be several days). TP is the next/ First daily close higher. Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
RBNZ MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT - GBPNZD TACTICAL LONG (NZDUSD)*RBNZ not adding much new in their September statement, and imo, Gov Wheelers speech highlighting the issues with trying to control a ccy with the cash rate makes the persistent worries regarding kiwi/ nzd strength less of a dovish factor than it may appear. Nonetheless, the statement on the margin was neutral, with perhaps the pressure for a lower kiwi and inflation prints putting it on the dovish side. Positioning wise, I am tactically long GBPNZD and EURNZD for another day or two (depending on closes - see attached).. this leaning dovish statement may ease these positions into the money but it isnt the key driver I was looking for but ill take any kiwi weakness we can get here. One onus on short kiwi is the tail off in US STIR which may see some more AUDNZD selling (kiwi buying) as USD rates become less attractive - although we have infact seen December fed funds trade flat on the day (though November did soften from 20 to 14%) so this yield seeking cross selling may be limited and under some sort of control for now which should enable these tactical kiwi shorts some running room. RBNZ: MONETARY POLICY TO REMAIN ACCOMODATIVE - A Decline In THE NZ$ Is Needed - Further Easing Will Be Required - Weak Global Growth And Low Rates Putting Upward Pressure On NZ$ - High NZ$ Makes It Difficult To Reach Inflation Target - Further Declines In Inflation Expectations Still A Risk - Domestic Growth Supported By Strong Migration, Tourism, Construction - Strong Immigration Is Limiting Wages Pressure - Watching Data Closely - Volatility In Global Markets Has Increased - House Price Inflation Remains Excessive, Macropru Having Moderating Influence - Outlook For Global Growth, Commodity Prices Remains Uncertain - Annual CPI Inflation Expected To Weaken In Sept Quarter Full statement is here - www.rbnz.govt.nz WESTPAC ON THE RBNZ: -This morning the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.00%, as was widely expected. -Much of the language from the August Monetary Policy Statement was retained in today's release, most likely deliberately so. The last paragraph repeated that "further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range" (our emphasis - "will" is about as strong as the RBNZ's language gets). -The statement acknowledged the economic developments since August, without altering its bottom-line assessment on inflation. Dairy prices have risen strongly, although there is still a great deal of uncertainty around the full season outcome; the NZ dollar has risen more than expected; strong GDP growth was broadly in line with expectations; and there are early signs that the latest round of lending restrictions is having a dampening effect on the housing market. -The RBNZ again noted that annual inflation is expected to rise from the end of this year, as some temporary factors drop out. Nevertheless, the RBNZ still faces an uncomfortably slow return to the inflation target, with the risk that persistently low inflation leads to a further decline in wage and price expectations. -In August the RBNZ was fairly explicit that its interest rate projections split the difference between one and two more OCR cuts in coming months, with the first cut most likely to be at the November MPS. -We suspect that the RBNZ is still committed to at least the first of those rate cuts. Any change in the language of today's statement could have given the false impression that the RBNZ was wavering on further easing.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
RBNZ MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT - GBPNZD TACTICAL LONG (NZDUSD)RBNZ not adding much new in their September statement, and imo, Gov Wheelers speech highlighting the issues with trying to control a ccy with the cash rate makes the persistent worries regarding kiwi/ nzd strength less of a dovish factor than it may appear. Nonetheless, the statement on the margin was neutral, with perhaps the pressure for a lower kiwi and inflation prints putting it on the dovish side. Positioning wise, I am tactically long GBPNZD and EURNZD for another day or two (depending on closes - see attached).. this leaning dovish statement may ease these positions into the money but it isnt the key driver I was looking for but ill take any kiwi weakness we can get here. One onus on short kiwi is the tail off in US STIR which may see some more AUDNZD selling (kiwi buying) as USD rates become less attractive - although we have infact seen December fed funds trade flat on the day (though November did soften from 20 to 14%) so this yield seeking cross selling may be limited and under some sort of control for now which should enable these tactical kiwi shorts some running room. RBNZ: MONETARY POLICY TO REMAIN ACCOMODATIVE - A Decline In THE NZ$ Is Needed - Further Easing Will Be Required - Weak Global Growth And Low Rates Putting Upward Pressure On NZ$ - High NZ$ Makes It Difficult To Reach Inflation Target - Further Declines In Inflation Expectations Still A Risk - Domestic Growth Supported By Strong Migration, Tourism, Construction - Strong Immigration Is Limiting Wages Pressure - Watching Data Closely - Volatility In Global Markets Has Increased - House Price Inflation Remains Excessive, Macropru Having Moderating Influence - Outlook For Global Growth, Commodity Prices Remains Uncertain - Annual CPI Inflation Expected To Weaken In Sept Quarter Full statement is here - www.rbnz.govt.nz WESTPAC ON THE RBNZ: -This morning the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.00%, as was widely expected. -Much of the language from the August Monetary Policy Statement was retained in today's release, most likely deliberately so. The last paragraph repeated that "further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range" (our emphasis - "will" is about as strong as the RBNZ's language gets). -The statement acknowledged the economic developments since August, without altering its bottom-line assessment on inflation. Dairy prices have risen strongly, although there is still a great deal of uncertainty around the full season outcome; the NZ dollar has risen more than expected; strong GDP growth was broadly in line with expectations; and there are early signs that the latest round of lending restrictions is having a dampening effect on the housing market. -The RBNZ again noted that annual inflation is expected to rise from the end of this year, as some temporary factors drop out. Nevertheless, the RBNZ still faces an uncomfortably slow return to the inflation target, with the risk that persistently low inflation leads to a further decline in wage and price expectations. -In August the RBNZ was fairly explicit that its interest rate projections split the difference between one and two more OCR cuts in coming months, with the first cut most likely to be at the November MPS. -We suspect that the RBNZ is still committed to at least the first of those rate cuts. Any change in the language of today's statement could have given the false impression that the RBNZ was wavering on further easing.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
LONG EURNZD: STRAT TRADE - 99.49% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALLong EURNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) EURNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1SD. 3. Fundamentally I also like being long EUR given the ECBs new more neutral stance where monpol easing looks to be coming to an end. Trading Strategy: 1. Buy EURNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower. TP is the next daily close higher.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
6
LONG GBPNZD - STRAT TRADE: 99.01% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALLong GBPNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) GBPNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.99%, hence there is a implied 99% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1.5SD - with 1m heavily over sold at -2SD. 3. Fundamentally Sterling looks a little over-offered, with the reason for the aggressive move lower uncertain at best imo - whilst today we saw the kiwi/ GDT Price index trade much softer than recent months which is a positive to be short kiwi tactically. Trading Strategy: 1. Buy GBPNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower. TP is the next daily close higher. Any questions please ask!
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
LONG GBPNZD - STRAT TRADE: 99.01% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL *Long GBPNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) GBPNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.99%, hence there is a implied 99% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1.5SD - with 1m heavily over sold at -2SD. 3. Fundamentally Sterling looks a little over-offered, with the reason for the aggressive move lower uncertain at best imo - whilst today we saw the kiwi/ GDT Price index trade much softer than recent months which is a positive to be short kiwi tactically. 4. Technically there is also a triple bottom forming at the 1.77 level (previous 2 support lows) which is even more reason to take a long position. Trading Strategy: 1. Buy GBPNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower. TP is the next daily close higher. Any questions please ask!
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
LONG EURNZD: STRAT TRADE - 99.49% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL *Long EURNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) EURNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1SD. 3. Fundamentally I also like being long EUR given the ECBs new more neutral stance where monpol easing looks to be coming to an end. 4. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1.52 level, though not quite yearly lows (as in GBPNZD) but still a firm level which is more likely than not to attract some bids. Trading Strategy: 1. Buy EURNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower. TP is the next daily close higher.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
SHORT GBPNZD: CARRY TO OUTPERFORM; LOWER BOE EQUILIBRIUM?GBPNZD: 1. Wanted to repost my view on GBPNZD - remain short on rallies here into 1.82 with a 1.80, 200pip target. 2. This whole week weve remained strictly rangebound and sterling kiwi has paid every time (about 10) on shorts at the 1.810 level so i will continue this view at 1.82 given: 1) NZD carry continues to be the highest in G10 so Kiwi demand will likely hold up for the foreseeable future especially on BOE fwd guidance - though UK data outperforming in the near term could continue to put sterling topside pressure though the long game i dont expect this to last. 2) Sterling looks overbrought on the daily at these levels some 400pips higher than BOE monpol lows, here imo is the true home for GBPNZD given I expected the lean for further easing to be on BOE vs RBNZ as kiwi house prices will continue to prevent aggressive easing (as Wheeler pointed out earlier this week - rapid easing isnt going to happen). Risks: 1. Technically, on sterling demand I think risk is to the 1.83 resistance level, I dont think sterlingkiwi has much more given the amount of resistance we have found down at 1.81. 2. AUDNZD Re-balancing - there looks like there may be a AUDNZD rebalancing higher after 2wks of selling, this could shift GBPAUD aussie shorts into kiwi shorts vs GBP, though the AUDNZD movement higher looks to be struggling to gain traction given the differential of 50bps remains the bottom line, and weak fwd guidance from both RBA and RBNZ makes it difficult to differerentite the two (not to mention aussie data has been less firm in recent times vs kiwi). 3. UK PMI - UK PMIs next week, if outperforming will likely give GBP bulls more fuel to own sterling, given it is economic revisions recently higher that has been the fundamental reason for sterling topside - so further leading indications from PMIs could continue this trend, though given the move already higher, 1.82 could be the ceiling here (though watch out for a AUDNZD equilibrium higher which would make gbpnzd move through 1.82). If the PMIs were to show any figure above 50, expect an aggressive 300pip+ movement higher. 4. USD hiking risk - USD strength will cause NZD yield seeking supply as investors shift into USD markets instead.. as we have seen today with the spike higher, continued USD rate performance will drag on NZD longs in the medium term.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading