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Rbnz

This Sell Zone may be interesting towards RBNZ rate decision$NZDUSD exploded higher as the rest of the Majors due to the Dollar's weakness last Friday. Now it is reaching an interesting resistance zone - One that has generated nice bearish moves in recent weeks. Broken uptrend line - Now should act as resistance Psychological level and daily structure zone PRZ of Harmonic patterns. Interesting potential Sell Zone towards RBNZ rate decision - especially when rate cut is expected. Look for intraday reversal signs inside the 0.7 resistance zone. Stop loss should be at least above 0.705 (recognize reversal first) Tomer Jakov, The MarketZone This analysis is part of the Weekly Markets Analysis newsletters To read more interesting technical reviews for the week - goo.gl To subscribe to the newsletters - goo.gl
Short
by themarketzone
Tentative: RBNZ decision setup. Part 2/2The RBNZ decision is coming up tonight at 22 UK time. While the expected outcome, on paper, is for a stay of the current rate, economists seem to speculate a probability of ~ 20 % of a rate cut I think, which is high but not so much to discourage a stay setup. How can we trade this exciting piece of news? Two setups come to mind. This, the second one, is alligned with a CUT of the rates from the RBNZ --> Long AUDNZD. The choise of pairs comes from a tactical advantage given by the current price action indicating a rebound from lower long term channel support line at ~ 1.06 which provides a decent margin for stop. Furthermore, the recent decision of the BoA to keep rates at current value should enhance the divergence between the two monetary standings, in case of an RBNZ cut.
Long
by LotsOfLore
Tentative: RBNZ decision setup. Part 1/2The RBNZ decision is coming up tonight at 22 UK time. While the expected outcome, on paper, is for a stay of the current rate, economists seem to speculate a probability of ~ 20 % of a rate cut I think, which is high but not so much to discourage a stay setup. How can we trade this exciting piece of news? Two setups come to mind. This, the first one, is alligned to a STAY of the rates --> Long NZDUSD on the break of the lower mid line of the pitchfork formation, current resistance of ~ 0.7. This decision comes from taking advantage of the current short term weakness of the USD. Possible targets could be the midline of the pitchfork or up to the 1.618 fibo trend calibrated fibo at ~ 0.72
Long
by LotsOfLore
NZDCAD: Time to go longI had shared the entry in my monthly short publication (see related ideas) but today I had more clear confirmation that oil is topping against monthly resistance, so we can go long NZDCAD with stops below 0.8591. We can exit when NZDUSD catches up with CADUSD in the percentage scale chart to the left. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
USDCNH, AUDUSD and NZDUSD: Don't fade an uptrendIn this chart I break down the price action in these 3 pairs. USDCNH is in a strong 2 day chart downtrend, and about to breach a key level on chart. Once below we can see it trade significantly lower, or even go back to the start of the recent massive PBOC devaluation rally start. AUDUSD, I have covered and even given a long entry for this trend, currently not giving a continuation signal, but the rally is so strong that it has become ridiculous to attempt shorting it. Usually, when a long term trend reverses, the reversal move is so violent that leaves everyone wondering what happened, waiting for retracements that never come to join, or simply getting stopped time and time again fading it. It has broken all resistances so far, and I'd like to see a new 10 bar+ level or it moving to the weekly timeframe or a different timeframe to trade it. For now, the 2 bar timeframe has proven effective, and unsurprisingly, it's acting like CNH, gaining strength when the chinese currency does. NZDUSD, there's a huge 10 day timeframe uptrend signal that will trigger soon, (could be a 17 week confirmed uptrend too, but might be too many bars at the mode). I'm long with a wide stop, and will add on retrace, and add as the trend progresses. It'll be hard to join, if you're not an avid position trader, and try to slap on tight stops and catch retracements. If we get further opportunities to long, it'll be a nice one to join. CoT positions in Milk futures show commercials have lowered shorts aggressively and are now flat, and creeping into the long side. Copper, commercials are flat, but might go net long soon, favoring this long Asia thesis. I think these trends are here to stay, don't miss out on the moves to come. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
NZDCAD: Triple top and potential 12 month decline aheadThis chart is significantly interesting for a variety of reasons. On a technical and fundamental basis I think we can expect NZDCAD to sell off in the intermediate to long term, and right here we have the perfect excuse to join in on this action as a position trade. The entry is a discretionary entry, below the previous monthly close, in case next month, we stay under the monthly mode at 0.92063, which would confirm the 12 month decline and the target on chart. Good luck if taking this trade. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
10
NZDUSD: Expecting downtrend continuationIt looks like NZDUSD-1.49% will resume the bearish trend right away. The confirmation for this setup would be to see a sharp decline, reaching 0,60135 before March 2nd ideally. We could preemtively enter shorts at market and use a stop at 0.68286 initially, and add to the trade as it progresses. The potential decline ahead is rather large, and when we apply an 'expanding triangle' look to is, it would appear like we can expect a 2x range decline in this pair. Rgmov is bearish and the price action highly suggestive. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
19
Long AUDNZD Idea- Weekly Inverted H&S+Renewed Policy Divergence The weekly chart shows a very interesting inverted head & shoulders pattern following a significant AUD decline against the NZD after breaking, but failing to hold below the December 2005 lows. With the renewed dovish tone of the RBNZ after disappointing dairy prices, and even more disappointing consumer price figures, this looks to be a good opportunity for medium term longs on the AUDNZD. The RBA continues to remain on hold with the 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures suggesting a 94% probability of no change, while expectations for further cuts by the RBNZ have increased from 8% to 40% since the latest statement, according the current OIS market. This pair also limits the exposure to falling commodities and risk tone considering both the Aussie and Kiwi are higher yielding commodity currencies.
Long
by ChrisMathis
1
AUDNZD Long Fundamentally we have the Reserve Bank of Australia with a neutral stance and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand with a neutral stance after the latest rate cut. In fact the NZ CPI Figures are scheduled for this week before we head into the showdown of the RBNZ in the last week of January. I am expecting a drop in NZ CPI Figures of round about -0.5%, while the newest Dairy Auction should bring a negative result for milk price pouder what should force the RBNZ to act further this year and give up the neutral stance. Further the El Nino should have a much bigger Impact on NZ's Economy than on Australia Economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia should keep the Cash Rate unchanged throughout the year. The only thing i am worried about are the falling coal and iron ore prices what is more related to Australias ToT. Further the weakness surrounding about china is more bad news for the Land Down Under than for NZ because Australia Export round about 33 % to China, while NZ is only within the game with round about 20%. Technically we are also preparing for a big move higher. This does not mean it could happens this or next week. But should the NZ CPI Figures and Dairy Prices tank, than the RBNZ has to act again. Currently the RBNZ expects CPI to shrink to -0.2%. But as said earlier, I am expecting a drop to -0.5%. Anyway, in the weekly and monthly chart we are forming a nice head and shoulders reversal pattern. What i am also wanted to say is: The iron ore and coal prices what i am worried about has fallen significantly already and the AUD adjusted to them a lot already. Anyway, short term we still have space to go a bit down to my area, but i am not thinking about that the AUD/NZD could test the Parity again. Further when we scroll back in history, we are at one of the most important support zones for this pair, what makes me more confident about it. Please let me know what you think. Thank you! Have a great sunday
Long
by robert.zach.7543
5
GBPNZD: Pound/Kiwi retracement done in 2 daysThe GBPNZD pair has been in a strong uptrend, and after topping in August 24th, when the stock market bottomed after flash crashing, endured a lengthy correction. The time for this correction now matches the time the advance took to form, and we're close to a perfect 0.618 retracement of it, which nicely lines up with many time at mode elements suggesting a long is possible in this zone. I'll be looking to entering intermediate/long term positions around these parts, I expect new longs to enter after new year, and a very strong uptrend aiming for 2.66+ to start soon. The stop loss for this entry is vital, and can make or break the trade, so I will enter with a few different techniques to attempt to leverage this into a giant home run trade. For details on the specific position management, entry, exit, and stop loss values we will use, contact me, since I will reserve this for my private trading room. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
8
NZDUSD Elliottwave Daily Technical Analysis and ForecastTalking Points: NZDUSD Technical Strategy: Temporary Bullish Elliottwave Count: Wave C is still due We were tracking to see correction complete on or above .7200 area before downtrend. But this might not be a straight line. This can be played with two scenario. Scenario 1: where we might see upside on wave (c) and can be target on area zone of 7060, 7152 and 7234. If we reach those area in corrective channel we might mark correction close. But, in case of not, scenario 2 can be played. Scenario 2: which should point more upside and suggest complex correction and target towards 7500 area zone. We are putting less confident count on this as NZD fundamental are not strong as suggested. But this count too be considerable before marking any correction completed. Where we are? We initiated trade last week with this pair at price 6738 and after that, we suggested our client to move their stop loss to 6710, risking only 28 pips and now targeting 7060 as initial target. We move our stoploss higher once first objective met and book 50% of position and leave another 50% for more gain
Long
by Hoag
New Zealand Dollar Sets Up for Bullish MoveThe kiwi had a solid move against the dollar on Friday, gaining 1.14 percent. The move came as commodities rebounded, thus pushing up their respected commodity FX. This was a response to the weaker dollar, but commodities saw their sixth week of capital inflows as traders deem a more risk-on approach in the medium-term. The move into commodities has been the longest in eight months. The daily chart has formed a “cup and handle” pattern. Typically more consistent on the weekly chart, but price action has been able to form a rounded bottom which coincides with weekly price support. The handle is formed as price begins to fade upward momentum and can resemble a bull flag or pennant. If NZDUSD can close above .6770, the pair will likely break out of the downward consolidation (shaded box). Traders’ risk sentiment will fuel either the run up to the 200-day EMA near .7000, or cause the kiwi to trend lower to price support of .6638 – at this point the subjective pattern could show signs of breaking down. If the pair does close below the 50-day EMA, price support would be sought out as downward targets. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
10
EURNZD: Weekly uptrend confirming in 2 days, 4h uptrend in a barSimilarly to EURAUD, EURNZD presents us with a very interesting long opportunity. It would seem as if the Euro pairs have taken a breath before climbing higher overall, potentially even EURUSD, but I'd rather stick to these two (and maybe EURJPY) for a long trade. I'll update EURJPY briefly, for now I leave you with this chart, I believe it paints a pretty clear picture: Rgmov points up Price found support at a previous level of extreme agreement between market participants, a low volume profile support level, where market was totally one-directional. This level matches a significant fibonacci retracement of a strong bar. 4h chart shows 4 bars with no new low as of now, and soon a 5th, making me want to go long asap, before it starts accelerating. Good luck! Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
Pound/Gold ratio: Trend ongoingIn this chart I describe the relationship between gold, the pound and kiwi. I think we have a very strong trend going, which hasn't ended. It's highly possible that the gold EW count in the related ideas pans out, which would correlate with the bullish signals I obtain from the gbp/nzd and gbp/gold charts using time at mode. Initially, we had a correction after exceeding my forecasted target, as outlined in my previous GBPNZD chart (also in related ideas) but I don't think the move is done yet. Today we had lots of bullish gold publications, lots of technical traders calling bottoms, even myself for a minute but I'm not so sure anymore. Not with this background and the lower timeframe analysis of the move from the lows. I think we will have to wait for any kind of longer term reversal, and for now I'd suggest waiting for GBPNZD to get oversold to buy it, and waiting for gold rallies to fade them,same with the Kiwi. As a sidenote, I believe it's highly probable to see an intermediate bottom form in the near term, but it won't happen today. I'll monitor the RBNZ decision, we might have good opportunities on the short side very soon. Cheers, Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
9
GBPNZD: the beginning of a longterm uptrendThis is my time at mode analysis of this pair. Currently kicking off with a strong uptrend off a longterm mode. The horizontal lines map different areas of high volume from the past, which were 'fair value' at one given time. They are magnetic in nature and offer valuable clues as to where price will move, or where price will stop and reverse. In Elliott Wave terms, there's a clear impulse in sight, but I'm not 100% sure about its construction. Quoting my friend's Nick Coulby's work, this might be the start of the 3rd wave, inside a larger 5 wave structure. This could always resolve into a series of nested 1-2,1-2 impulses that end up in an explosive move up, so I'll just focus on buying the correction completion.
Long
by IvanLabrie
18
GBPNZD: Potential range tradeWe have a confluence of signals indicating a long is possible from this area. We got: Key hidden levels options expirations support Downtrend signal that probably won't be reached in time. (if not reached = bullish!) RgMov in an uptrend since the inverted head and shoulders in jangseohee's chart formed. Also showing fibonacci levels of support at play. (It can be used to detect trends and sentiment very well, great tool) CCI showing a hidden divergence and quarterly ROC showing an uptrend. Price action suggests this oversold spike down reached its end, specially if we break above the last daily bar's high. Feel free to comment, and take this trade as well...Keep in mind price can extend down to meet my forecasted time at mode downtrend target by April 17th. I don't think it will, but it can. Targets would be between 1.97 and 1.99 in a strong surge, but it can extend higher. Stops are to be placed based on your own criteria, always follow your methodology, this is nothing more than a trade journal. Good luck!
Long
by IvanLabrie
14
GBPNZD: Correction spottedThis is an interesting chart. I was under the impression that this was a running correction intially but the recent price action makes me think otherwise. The majority of the people are expecting a rate cut this week, during the RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday. With heavy UK data coming out tomorrow, volatility is a given and I think the bigger risk/reward ratio will be on the short side. Looking to short this week, using the 4h chart for entry, and scaling in as we move forward. I'll update with my entry and scale ins once the trade is active. This trade would serve as a hedge for GBPUSD longs. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
21
GBPNZD: Forming an expanding terminal wedgeWe have one more push up left before this turns into a massive short in my opinion. Right now, I had a short running, from a lower timeframe entry but I'll cover and go long at the support level in green, which also matches an 11 bar daily mode. Look at the momentum indicators, I plotted a derivative oscillator, composite index and RSI with averages to illustrate my point: This is a topping formation, suggesting we sell the next swing up, which will probably form a lower momentum and atr peak before the house of cards comes crashing down. Risk is 180 pips, but the target lies 809.3 pips up, so I won't hesitate with this setup. Once we take profits from the long trade, we can initiate a short at the same area, so, leaving a take profit and a reverse position at the same price, using an ATR based stop. Will modify it if need be, for now I'd reccomend focusing on the long. See the related ideas for more examples on this methodology applied to this pair. Time at mode has been excellent at timing and pricing swing end points before, and I believe it will work again this time. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
35