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Rbnz

SHORT NZDUSD: GOLDMAN SACHS FORECASTS 0.68, 0.64, 0.62 GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECT 3 RBNZ RATE CUTS OF 25BP APIECE IN AUG, NOV AND MAR. In a scheduled "Economic Update" published on Thursday, the RBNZ signalled a significant strengthening in its easing bias, and dovish shift across its views on domestic inflation and domestic/global growth. At the heart of many of these changes is renewed concern about the elevated NZD. In our view, these changes make clear that the RBNZ is positioning for a deeper easing cycle, notwithstanding ongoing risks to financial stability from rising house prices. NZDUSD Targets: - 3 Month: 0.68 - 6 Month: 0.64 - 12 Month 0.62 This is largely inline with my previous posts/ reaffirms my short view of NZD$ - especially with the possibility of 50bps of cuts increasing for this year (GS citing two cuts); Plus I also see increased USD strength over the medium term as rate hike expectations/ implied probabilities ever grow - Fed Funds Futures Opt Implied probs now trade at 19.5% for Sept, 20.8% Nove and 40% for Dec, up from yesterday at 18.8, 20 an 39.8 - the firsk-on bias already started today will likely see these probabilities continue to strengthen until the end of the day. The Probability of 2 hikes this year is also becoming an ever stronger possibility with 2 hikes pricing at 7.5% in Dec - and with July Pricing a hike for the first time since Brexit at 2.4%
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
SHORT NZDUSD: RBNZ DOVISH ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT HIGHLIGHTSThe RBNZ was dovish in their economic assesment and IMO used it to communicate their 100% commitment to a OCR cut. Key drivers of this view were quotes such as "futher policy easing will be required, and monetary policy will remain accomodative.", "NZD currency strength makes it difficult to hit target inflation" and "NZD exachange rate is too high stronger NZD implies inflation outlook will be weak" So clearly there is no illusion as to the RBNZ's August 10th decision. Perhaps the only question, given the extensiveness of the dovish rhetoic/ comments is how much will the RBNZ cut? could it be 50bps rather than than the usual 25bps given how aggressively dovish they have came out on the record. Trading Strategy: 1. From current levels there is little interest in adding fresh shorts - shorts still standing from 0.72/3 are firm and should be held. A 25bps cut IMO will take NZDUSD to 0.68TP and a 50bps cut, with the shock pricing it even lower, likely to 0.65/4. 2. Risks to this downside view continue to be RBNZ driven. As we have seen in the past 2wks Kiwi has traded at the mercy of the RBNZ - 2wks ago when the OCR rate cut initially began to price us to 0.70, the RBNZ came on record talking about kiwi house prices limiting the ability to cut the OCR which caused NZD$ to rally back to 12m highs, where then a week later, the RBNZ announced their emergency "economic assesment" which completely flipped the script back on the dovish side - now this week the assesment has been released and is dovish with the rate hike being price now. - But in the 3wks between now and the rate decision, im sure there is a level for more RBNZ comments to conflict this dovish sentiment. RBNZ Economic Assessment Highlights: -RBNZ: Further Policy Easing Likely -RBNZ: Will Continue to Watch Emerging Flow of Data -RBNZ: House Price Inflation Excessive -RBNZ: Bank Lending Curbs Aim To Limit Financial Sector Instability -RBNZ: Many Uncertainties Around Outlook -RBNZ: High New Zealand Dollar Adding To Headiwinds For Dairy, Manufacturing -RBNZ: High NZ Dollar Makes It Harder To Achieve Inflation Target
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
NZDJPY: Potential downtrend continuationThe gap up gave a tighter entry in this pair. If you didn't short at market open, you can enter on a break of Friday's close or Friday's low, or at market, depending on your risk appetite. Stop loss should be as depicted on chart. If we break down with sufficient force, the monthly downtrend target on chart might get hit. If this downtrend is to pan out, we'll be returning to a monthly uptrend mode below, which acts as a magnetic level, once the level above is broken down convincingly. I like how the price action around the previous RBNZ rate cuts has given us clear indications of where the range would get capped, and it seems to be the case once again. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by IvanLabrie
SELL NZDUSD: EYES ON CPI PRINT 23:45GMT - >0.5%=0.73; <0.4%=0.67Short NZDUSD based on low CPI/ inflation = an RBNZ OCR cut is 90% likely - 105 mins after market open at 23:45GMT NZD releases their June CPI print. - In all RBNZ mandates they reiterate how they consider CPI to be their "main/ sole" target or dictator of the monetary policy they set (check any of their minutes etc). - Their target is 2%, plus recently they announced that they would hold an "emergency"/ brought forward economic assessment (this lead to increased short bets on NZD$ at the back of last week (with NZD$ falling from 0.733 to 0.710) as many speculated that this meant the RBNZ has a heads up on the CPI print - e.g. its bad). - See here for more details on NZD CPI and likelihood of a RBNZ OCR cut: www.bloomberg.com - In simple terms if CPI fails to grow on the quarter for NZD e.g. 0.4% or has in fact fallen e.g. 0.3% or less - it is highly likely that the RBNZ will cut their OCR rate, in order to boost the CPI, which in turn will send NZD$ likely to a terminal rate of 0.67 (could be as much as 0.65), hence why last week we saw shorts increase on the pair as fast money tries to front run the market/ print. Trading Strategy - Short NZD$ if CPI print misses or equals 0.4% - Stagnant/ low Inflation = RBNZ OCR cut likely: 1. Personally I dont have any interest in playing the long kiwi$ side e.g. if the print is higher as; 1) the RBNZ isnt happy with NZD trading so well (due to its deflationairy pressures), so action could come to reduce the NZD. 2) There is approximately 300-400pips of downside from here (at least) if a RBNZ OCR cut comes, whereas a no cut will likely see NZD$ Drift to 0.73 (maybe higher) so the risk:reward complex isn't as attractive to the upside IMO. 2. I will be waiting for the CPI print at 23:45GMT - if it is lower or equal to 0.4% I will Short NZDUSD 2lot@Market price; 0.68TP1 0.67TP2 0.65TP3 . 3. This trade is effectively betting on an RBNZ OCR rate cut; See attached posts for more details but this is already highly likely - and IMO is a definite if CPI is 0.4% (even more so if it is lower). Ideally id love to see 0.3%. - The rate cut is ranked likely if CPI comes in at 0.4% or less because 1) Inflation is the RBNZ key target, so stagnation is what they have to avoid - a rate cut is the likely tool they'll use given they have one of the highest CB rates in the developed world; 2) the NZD dollar is very expensive across the board and the RBNZ have communicated their dismay regarding the strength of the currency (e.g. saying its very strong/ causing disinflationairy pressures) - so a OCR cut is also the likely response if the RBNZ wants to depreciate the NZD dollar against all of its trading partners; 3) An OCR cut will ease any of the Brexit Commonwealth Headwinds that may or may not drift into NZD's economy of negative impact - so as these 3 reasons are compounded I believe an OCR cut is made ever more highly (80-90%) likely thus bearish bets against NZDUSD make sense to me from here. 3. This CPI trade, if comes in on target (0.4% or less), is also good as LDN and NY session's will have 8-14 hours until they start - so you will be able to get ahead of the market/ mostof the largest FX flows. Though the Asia session will be in full swing so dont expect an easy ride - IMO fingers should be on the trigger to execute the short immediately if 0.4% or less is seen - NZDUSD will likely drop 200+pips in less than 30seconds if these figures are the case (if not even quicker). Any questions or comments please ask - reading the "sell nzdusd @0.73 - tp 700pips" post ive attached helps support this short Kiwi$ trade
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
19
NZDUSD: Clear short at weekly resistanceNZDUSD has an interesting short setup in the making. If we break down from here I could see it retesting the weekly mode at 0.6721, as depicted on chart. You can enter shorts at market with stops above 0.72721, and risk 0.5-1% on it. Add after it moves 1 atr in profit. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance-0.38% on such information.
Short
by IvanLabrie
2
AUDNZD: Ready to go back upAUDNZD has reached an extremely low level as you can see in the quarterly chart, and as is typical in cross pairs, they tend to revert back to the long term mean when this happens. The best way to know when it'll turn is when fundamentals favor outperformance of one of the currencies over the other, specially when technicals align. In the weekly chart you can observe my 'pair trader' indicator, which shows the spread between AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Interestingly enough, it's at record low levels, similar to the one before the steep rally that started in April 2015. Since both economies are fairly similar, this pair tends to range in a very wide and volatile range in the long term as you can see. I favor longs in this pair. If price were to drop below the 'Brexit key level' on chart, I'd doubt the advance. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by IvanLabrie
8
LONG DXY/ USD VS GBP: HAWKISH FOMC LOCKHART SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSFOMC Lockhart was the 4th Fed this week to imo be relatively Hawkish with his words, most notably reinforcing with the others brexits near-term stability saying "Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy" and " So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly". Most interestingly though was Lockharts view on the FOMC's positioning for future rate increases, saying "Won't Rule Out Two Rate Rises This Year" - which is extremely hawkish given most expect 1 at the most.. Back up this sentiment by insisting that the Fed is "Fed Not Behind Curve, Has Time to Decide on Next Rate Move". Nonethless Lockhart did somewhat contradict his "rate expectations" by saying "Time for 'Cautious and Patient Approach' to Rate Policy" which surely shouldn't be the case if 2 hikes are coming - that would be on the aggressive side. All in all, Lockharts comments go hand in hand with my Bullish medium term USD/ DXY view (see previous articles) - I like the USD vs EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, NZD in the medium term so long DXY/ USD is favoured, even more so if 2 rate hikes were to be realised this year. At current levels short GBPUSD is my favourite expression FOMC RATE HIKE IMPLIED PROBABILITIES - On the likelihood of rate increases, in the past 24 hours, from the Federal Funds Rate implied probability curve we have seen rates/ probabilities firm after yesterdays "risk-break" recovery, with a 25bps September/ Nov hike steepening to 17.2% from 11.7%(Wed), and Dec setting new highs at 35.9% from 29.5% (Wed) - Dec also went on to double the probability of a 50bps hike to 5.1% vs 2.8%(Wed), giving Lockharts comments some weight. FOMC Lockhart Speech Highlights: -Fed's Lockhart: Fed Not Behind Curve, Has Time to Decide on Next Rate Move -Lockhart: Time for 'Cautious and Patient Approach' to Rate Policy -Lockhart: So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly -Lockhart: 'Brexit' Will Increase Long Term Uncertainty -Lockhart: Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy -Lockhart: Bond Market Yields Largely Reflect Flight-To-Quality Buying -Lockhart: Too Soon to Say 'All Clear' for Financial Markets -Lockhart: 'Brexit' Not a 'Leman Moment' -Lockhart: Still Expects U.S. to Grow by 2%, Expects More Job Gains -Lockhart: Economy is 'Performing Adequately' -Lockhart Says Fed Has Time to Decide on Next Rate Move -Fed's Lockhart: Presidential Election May Be Boosting Economic Uncertainty -Fed's Lockhart: Won't Rule Out Two Rate Rises This Year
TVC:DXYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
SELL NZDUSD - RECONFIRMED BY 12M HIGHS? CPI PRINT EYED CLOSELYAlso as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view: 1. On the daily and NU currently Trades close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive. - Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU highly likely lower from here). -- And as you can see by the Yellow circle highlights NU has held this +/- 2SD discipline in the past so is highly likely to maintain these levels in the future. 2. Also NU trades significantly above its 60, 120, and 250 Moving Averages on 1h, 4h, 1D, 1wk - this also signals strong overbought prices, where selling has a higher probability of success. 3. NZD$ looks to have confirmed the 0.73 12 month high level as resistance - strong pivot point. 4. The strong 100k+ print beat from NFP last week imo didnt price much into NZD$ downside at the time, however given the reaction in the Fed Funds rates market, it may be pricing now as the market now implies a 25bps hike at 5.9% Sept/ Nov vs 0% prev, 22.5% Dec vs 18.5% prev - 50bps hike 1.1% vs 0% - also the probabilities of cuts all fell significantly across the curve. 5. Risks to the view continue to be a hawkish RBNZ - as we saw last week the short played well but was undermined at 0.70 when RBNZ speaker highlighted the HPI issue and inferred the cut may not happen in Aug as a result (Hence the recovery back to 0.73). - The rate cut went from 80% to 50% on the back of these comments imo - now NZD CPI inflation and employment readings in the coming 30 days serve as the determinant of their Aug decision, a flat or miss CPI print will likely mean the RBNZ will cut 25bps (CPI is the no.1 target), so beyond the 0.73 level resistance we look for certain confirmation in the CPI reading, though it will be difficult to know what the market is thinking/ to get ahead of the market in the lead up, where the short was a giveaway before the RBNZ's new comments were on the table. - Also on this point it is worth noting that given many of the worlds CBs have shifted to a dovish tone in light of the brexit vote (e.g. RBA BOE BOJ FOMC) this indirectly puts pressure on RBNZ to cut as Kiwi/ NZD will continue to appreciate causing disinflationairy pressures/ brakes to continue on the nzd economy, thus we also carry positive upside given the worlds policy positioning at the moment. Trading Strategy 1. Sell @0.726 TP 0.702 SL 0.732 - More aggressive shorts may be added if confidence in a cut is higher - a cut will send NU down to 0.67 at least for example. *Be sure to check the attached post "SELL NZDUSD @0.73 - TP 700PIPS: BREXIT, RBNZ, FED & USDJPY HEDGE" for NZDUSD short fundamentals*
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
EURNZD: Long back to 1.65654EURNZD's biweekly downtrend signal target has been 'hit' (missed by peanuts), so it's likely going to rally back to the downtrend mode, up there at the 1.65654 mark. You can enter longs at market, or buy dips to support in the daily chart to profit from this phenomenon. Stops should be below 1.5237. Have fun. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance-0.38% on such information.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
SHORT NZDUSD: +2 STANDARD DEVIATION PIVOT POINT ON DAILY & H1Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view: 1. On the daily, weekly and H1 NU currently Trades (and at 0.73) close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive. - Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU highly likely lower from here). -- And as you can see by the Circle Yellow highlights NU has held this +/- 2SD discipline in the past so is highly likely to maintain these levels in the future. 2. Also NU trades significantly above its 60, 120, and 250 Moving Averages on 1h, 4h, 1D, 1wk - this also signals strong overbought prices, where selling has a higher probability of success. *Be sure to check the attached post "SELL NZDUSD @0.73 - TP 700PIPS: BREXIT, RBNZ, FED & USDJPY HEDGE" for NZDUSD short fundamentals*
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
7
SELL NZDUSD: +2 STANDARD DEVIATION PIVOT POINT ON DAILY & H1Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view: 1. On the daily, H1 and weekly NU currently Trades (and at 0.73) close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive. - Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU highly likely lower from here). -- And as you can see by the Yellow circle highlights NU has held this +/- 2SD discipline in the past so is highly likely to maintain these levels in the future. 2. Also NU trades significantly above its 60, 120, and 250 Moving Averages on 1h, 4h, 1D, 1wk - this also signals strong overbought prices, where selling has a higher probability of success. *Be sure to check the attached post "SELL NZDUSD @0.73 - TP 700PIPS: BREXIT, RBNZ, FED & USDJPY HEDGE" for NZDUSD short fundamentals*
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
SELL NZDUSD @0.73 - TP 700PIPS: BREXIT, RBNZ, FED & USDJPY HEDGEShort NZDUSD is in my top 2 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. NZD is considered the riskiest G10 currency cross, so NZD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit occurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for NZD due to commonwealth connections. Therefore NZD is likely to come under pressure in the future as risk-off sentiment continues to dominate, as the US Election nears, Global growth worries continue (Japan, Europe, China) and Brexit/ uncertainty about further EuroArea exits continues to intensify - we can see Gold and US Treasuries continue to gain supporting the risk-off view and thus supporting selling NZD. Also, risk-off encourages $ buying as a safe haven deposit on the Brexit backdrop. - Further, going into earnings season next week, historically risk currencies (NZD) perform poorly as investors seek safer assets to hedge against earning surprises, thus this helps NZD selling and USD buying. Plus, most investors will want to hold some $ cash in order to fulfil their earnings based equity trading, so this also helps the short Kiwi$ trade by increasing $ demand relative to NZD. 2. The RBNZ Meeting on the 10th August is likely to be dovish and I 80% expect a rate cut of 25-50bps from 2.25% to 2.00%-1.75% , as;1) Brexit risks are weighed in on and potentially priced into a rate decision, in follow up to the supportive/ dovish statements from RBNZ members immediately after the Brexit decision and 2) NZD Macro Environment has performed poorly since the March Rate cut from 2.5% to 2.25% e.g. The last prints still consistently dragging: Retail Sales at 1.0% vs 1.1%qoq & 0.8% vs 1% Q1qoq; CPI 0.4% yoy, 0.2% qoq; Unemployment Rate at 5.7% vs 5.5%. 3) the RBNZ has a historical pattern of cutting their rate every third meeting, and this August meeting is the third meeting. Plus it will have been 5 months since their last cut in March - this also historically is a large time for a another rate cut as previously to that the RBNZ cut in December, Dec-Mar which was only 3 months, and before that in october (oct-dec) which was 2 months so the odds are good if NZD data continues to be bad given the time since the last cut of 5 months is relatively large. And the gap since their last meeting at June 10th is 2 months which is the biggest gap they have. - Risks to the RBNZ Rate cut view are that;1) Brexit risks are de-priced due to UK Political skulduggery pushing the likelihood of the brexit into 2017 (if at all) 2) Their Inflation, Employment and GDP data manage to recover and show structural signs that the rate at 2.25% is sufficient for continued economic recovery e.g. NZD May Employment Change print surprised to the upside at 1.2% vs 0.8%, and their June GDP outperformed for Q1 at 0.7% vs 0.5% qoq & 2.8% vs 2.6% yoy. So if the CPI and employment data due to be released before the RBNZ August 10th meeting shows a continued/ structural/ aggressive recovery this will reduce the likelihood of a rate cut. Nonetheless, my money is that this isn't the case (with data continuing to trade subdued) and I therefore expect them to provide reassurance to markets with a strong dovish tone, and a 25bps cut - citing Brexit and non-outstanding economic indicators as the impetus for the changed policy. *It should be noted, in order for me NOT to consider a 25bps cut likely in August we would have to see an outstanding CPI and employment print e.g. CPI 1.0%-0.8% (0.4% last), and unemployment 5.3/4% (5.7% last), given it has been 5 months since the last cut - the RBNZ would be expecting to see such figures to consider the current rate of 2.25% as working/ sufficient.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
13
NZDUSD Rallied After RBNZ Kept Rates Unchanged, As Expected• The NZD took centre stage on Thursday, surging to a one-year high after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged, surprising some investors who had been betting on a rate cut. The RBNZ decision was in line with our expectations. • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicated it could cut rates again due to low inflation. However, soaring home prices have put the central bank in a tricky situation after it slashed rates five times since June last year - the last 25-basis-point cut coming in March. "House price inflation in Auckland and other regions is adding to financial stability concerns," said RBNZ governor Graeme Wheeler in a statement accompanying the decision. • The RBNZ said it would be meeting in the next few weeks with Treasury officials to consider macro-prudential tools to curb the rise in home prices, including possible income related restrictions on mortgage lending. New Zealand's housing prices, spurred by low interest rates, high levels of immigration and supply shortages, are the second fastest-growing in the world after Qatar, according to the International Monetary Fund. • The market is now pricing in a 40% chance of a rate cut at the August 11 policy review, from 60% before Thursday's decision. Wheeler said that although one more cut was built into the bank's interest rate projections, factors such as economic performance, the currency and inflation expectations will influence its decision. He added: “You could end up in a situation where there is in fact no cut or there could be more cuts.” • We took profit on the NZDUSD long in the speculative part of our portfolio. Our long-term view remains bullish. Sign up to our newsletter growthaces.com and follow our trading signals.
Long
by GrowthAces
NZDUSD shoots above 0.70 as RBNZ holds rates steadyThe RBNZ did not cut rates yesterday and did not jawbone the Kiwi's exchange rate. The resistance at 0.70 has now been breached convincingly and any dips to 0.70 could remain a buy, if validated by price. To the upside next level of interest is 0.72, July 10, 2015 high. But looking the Stochastics here, there is a strong hidden bearish divergence which signals to a correction, validating the view that NZDUSD could slip to 0.70. 0.72 could be likely achieved only if support is formed at 0.70. For the moment, weak long positions above 0.7127 could remain at risk for a correction to 0.70. Technically, support should have been established at 0.69 but the lack of this could mean a possible slide to 0.69. Personally, I wouldn't be looking to go long at 0.70, especially with a risk of a dip to 0.69 looming.. unless the technical narrative changes. FOMC is up next Wednesday, 15th June. Trading idea: lower time frame chart could signal a counter trend short opportunities.
by justatrader
NZDUSD broke above 0.7000, eyes on RBNZ today$NZDUSD broke above 0.7000. Investors are awaiting today’s decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (21:00 GMT) and we think the outcome will be a very close call. We raised the target on our short-term NZDUSD long to 0.7085, but we also locked in profit at 0.6910. We keep our bullish view on the NZDUSD in the long term. The target in the investment part of the portfolio is 0.7300 growthaces.com Read more about our trading strategies and check profitability: growthaces.com
Long
by GrowthAces
This Sell Zone may be interesting towards RBNZ rate decision$NZDUSD exploded higher as the rest of the Majors due to the Dollar's weakness last Friday. Now it is reaching an interesting resistance zone - One that has generated nice bearish moves in recent weeks. Broken uptrend line - Now should act as resistance Psychological level and daily structure zone PRZ of Harmonic patterns. Interesting potential Sell Zone towards RBNZ rate decision - especially when rate cut is expected. Look for intraday reversal signs inside the 0.7 resistance zone. Stop loss should be at least above 0.705 (recognize reversal first) Tomer Jakov, The MarketZone This analysis is part of the Weekly Markets Analysis newsletters To read more interesting technical reviews for the week - goo.gl To subscribe to the newsletters - goo.gl
Short
by themarketzone
Tentative: RBNZ decision setup. Part 2/2The RBNZ decision is coming up tonight at 22 UK time. While the expected outcome, on paper, is for a stay of the current rate, economists seem to speculate a probability of ~ 20 % of a rate cut I think, which is high but not so much to discourage a stay setup. How can we trade this exciting piece of news? Two setups come to mind. This, the second one, is alligned with a CUT of the rates from the RBNZ --> Long AUDNZD. The choise of pairs comes from a tactical advantage given by the current price action indicating a rebound from lower long term channel support line at ~ 1.06 which provides a decent margin for stop. Furthermore, the recent decision of the BoA to keep rates at current value should enhance the divergence between the two monetary standings, in case of an RBNZ cut.
Long
by LotsOfLore
Tentative: RBNZ decision setup. Part 1/2The RBNZ decision is coming up tonight at 22 UK time. While the expected outcome, on paper, is for a stay of the current rate, economists seem to speculate a probability of ~ 20 % of a rate cut I think, which is high but not so much to discourage a stay setup. How can we trade this exciting piece of news? Two setups come to mind. This, the first one, is alligned to a STAY of the rates --> Long NZDUSD on the break of the lower mid line of the pitchfork formation, current resistance of ~ 0.7. This decision comes from taking advantage of the current short term weakness of the USD. Possible targets could be the midline of the pitchfork or up to the 1.618 fibo trend calibrated fibo at ~ 0.72
Long
by LotsOfLore
NZDCAD: Time to go longI had shared the entry in my monthly short publication (see related ideas) but today I had more clear confirmation that oil is topping against monthly resistance, so we can go long NZDCAD with stops below 0.8591. We can exit when NZDUSD catches up with CADUSD in the percentage scale chart to the left. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
USDCNH, AUDUSD and NZDUSD: Don't fade an uptrendIn this chart I break down the price action in these 3 pairs. USDCNH is in a strong 2 day chart downtrend, and about to breach a key level on chart. Once below we can see it trade significantly lower, or even go back to the start of the recent massive PBOC devaluation rally start. AUDUSD, I have covered and even given a long entry for this trend, currently not giving a continuation signal, but the rally is so strong that it has become ridiculous to attempt shorting it. Usually, when a long term trend reverses, the reversal move is so violent that leaves everyone wondering what happened, waiting for retracements that never come to join, or simply getting stopped time and time again fading it. It has broken all resistances so far, and I'd like to see a new 10 bar+ level or it moving to the weekly timeframe or a different timeframe to trade it. For now, the 2 bar timeframe has proven effective, and unsurprisingly, it's acting like CNH, gaining strength when the chinese currency does. NZDUSD, there's a huge 10 day timeframe uptrend signal that will trigger soon, (could be a 17 week confirmed uptrend too, but might be too many bars at the mode). I'm long with a wide stop, and will add on retrace, and add as the trend progresses. It'll be hard to join, if you're not an avid position trader, and try to slap on tight stops and catch retracements. If we get further opportunities to long, it'll be a nice one to join. CoT positions in Milk futures show commercials have lowered shorts aggressively and are now flat, and creeping into the long side. Copper, commercials are flat, but might go net long soon, favoring this long Asia thesis. I think these trends are here to stay, don't miss out on the moves to come. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
NZDCAD: Triple top and potential 12 month decline aheadThis chart is significantly interesting for a variety of reasons. On a technical and fundamental basis I think we can expect NZDCAD to sell off in the intermediate to long term, and right here we have the perfect excuse to join in on this action as a position trade. The entry is a discretionary entry, below the previous monthly close, in case next month, we stay under the monthly mode at 0.92063, which would confirm the 12 month decline and the target on chart. Good luck if taking this trade. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
10
NZDUSD: Expecting downtrend continuationIt looks like NZDUSD-1.49% will resume the bearish trend right away. The confirmation for this setup would be to see a sharp decline, reaching 0,60135 before March 2nd ideally. We could preemtively enter shorts at market and use a stop at 0.68286 initially, and add to the trade as it progresses. The potential decline ahead is rather large, and when we apply an 'expanding triangle' look to is, it would appear like we can expect a 2x range decline in this pair. Rgmov is bearish and the price action highly suggestive. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
19
Long AUDNZD Idea- Weekly Inverted H&S+Renewed Policy Divergence The weekly chart shows a very interesting inverted head & shoulders pattern following a significant AUD decline against the NZD after breaking, but failing to hold below the December 2005 lows. With the renewed dovish tone of the RBNZ after disappointing dairy prices, and even more disappointing consumer price figures, this looks to be a good opportunity for medium term longs on the AUDNZD. The RBA continues to remain on hold with the 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures suggesting a 94% probability of no change, while expectations for further cuts by the RBNZ have increased from 8% to 40% since the latest statement, according the current OIS market. This pair also limits the exposure to falling commodities and risk tone considering both the Aussie and Kiwi are higher yielding commodity currencies.
Long
by ChrisMathis
1