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AUDNZD Long Fundamentally we have the Reserve Bank of Australia with a neutral stance and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand with a neutral stance after the latest rate cut. In fact the NZ CPI Figures are scheduled for this week before we head into the showdown of the RBNZ in the last week of January. I am expecting a drop in NZ CPI Figures of round about -0.5%, while the newest Dairy Auction should bring a negative result for milk price pouder what should force the RBNZ to act further this year and give up the neutral stance. Further the El Nino should have a much bigger Impact on NZ's Economy than on Australia Economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia should keep the Cash Rate unchanged throughout the year. The only thing i am worried about are the falling coal and iron ore prices what is more related to Australias ToT. Further the weakness surrounding about china is more bad news for the Land Down Under than for NZ because Australia Export round about 33 % to China, while NZ is only within the game with round about 20%. Technically we are also preparing for a big move higher. This does not mean it could happens this or next week. But should the NZ CPI Figures and Dairy Prices tank, than the RBNZ has to act again. Currently the RBNZ expects CPI to shrink to -0.2%. But as said earlier, I am expecting a drop to -0.5%. Anyway, in the weekly and monthly chart we are forming a nice head and shoulders reversal pattern. What i am also wanted to say is: The iron ore and coal prices what i am worried about has fallen significantly already and the AUD adjusted to them a lot already. Anyway, short term we still have space to go a bit down to my area, but i am not thinking about that the AUD/NZD could test the Parity again. Further when we scroll back in history, we are at one of the most important support zones for this pair, what makes me more confident about it. Please let me know what you think. Thank you! Have a great sunday
Long
by robert.zach.7543
5
GBPNZD: Pound/Kiwi retracement done in 2 daysThe GBPNZD pair has been in a strong uptrend, and after topping in August 24th, when the stock market bottomed after flash crashing, endured a lengthy correction. The time for this correction now matches the time the advance took to form, and we're close to a perfect 0.618 retracement of it, which nicely lines up with many time at mode elements suggesting a long is possible in this zone. I'll be looking to entering intermediate/long term positions around these parts, I expect new longs to enter after new year, and a very strong uptrend aiming for 2.66+ to start soon. The stop loss for this entry is vital, and can make or break the trade, so I will enter with a few different techniques to attempt to leverage this into a giant home run trade. For details on the specific position management, entry, exit, and stop loss values we will use, contact me, since I will reserve this for my private trading room. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
8
NZDUSD Elliottwave Daily Technical Analysis and ForecastTalking Points: NZDUSD Technical Strategy: Temporary Bullish Elliottwave Count: Wave C is still due We were tracking to see correction complete on or above .7200 area before downtrend. But this might not be a straight line. This can be played with two scenario. Scenario 1: where we might see upside on wave (c) and can be target on area zone of 7060, 7152 and 7234. If we reach those area in corrective channel we might mark correction close. But, in case of not, scenario 2 can be played. Scenario 2: which should point more upside and suggest complex correction and target towards 7500 area zone. We are putting less confident count on this as NZD fundamental are not strong as suggested. But this count too be considerable before marking any correction completed. Where we are? We initiated trade last week with this pair at price 6738 and after that, we suggested our client to move their stop loss to 6710, risking only 28 pips and now targeting 7060 as initial target. We move our stoploss higher once first objective met and book 50% of position and leave another 50% for more gain
Long
by Hittesh
New Zealand Dollar Sets Up for Bullish MoveThe kiwi had a solid move against the dollar on Friday, gaining 1.14 percent. The move came as commodities rebounded, thus pushing up their respected commodity FX. This was a response to the weaker dollar, but commodities saw their sixth week of capital inflows as traders deem a more risk-on approach in the medium-term. The move into commodities has been the longest in eight months. The daily chart has formed a “cup and handle” pattern. Typically more consistent on the weekly chart, but price action has been able to form a rounded bottom which coincides with weekly price support. The handle is formed as price begins to fade upward momentum and can resemble a bull flag or pennant. If NZDUSD can close above .6770, the pair will likely break out of the downward consolidation (shaded box). Traders’ risk sentiment will fuel either the run up to the 200-day EMA near .7000, or cause the kiwi to trend lower to price support of .6638 – at this point the subjective pattern could show signs of breaking down. If the pair does close below the 50-day EMA, price support would be sought out as downward targets. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
10
EURNZD: Weekly uptrend confirming in 2 days, 4h uptrend in a barSimilarly to EURAUD, EURNZD presents us with a very interesting long opportunity. It would seem as if the Euro pairs have taken a breath before climbing higher overall, potentially even EURUSD, but I'd rather stick to these two (and maybe EURJPY) for a long trade. I'll update EURJPY briefly, for now I leave you with this chart, I believe it paints a pretty clear picture: Rgmov points up Price found support at a previous level of extreme agreement between market participants, a low volume profile support level, where market was totally one-directional. This level matches a significant fibonacci retracement of a strong bar. 4h chart shows 4 bars with no new low as of now, and soon a 5th, making me want to go long asap, before it starts accelerating. Good luck! Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
Pound/Gold ratio: Trend ongoingIn this chart I describe the relationship between gold, the pound and kiwi. I think we have a very strong trend going, which hasn't ended. It's highly possible that the gold EW count in the related ideas pans out, which would correlate with the bullish signals I obtain from the gbp/nzd and gbp/gold charts using time at mode. Initially, we had a correction after exceeding my forecasted target, as outlined in my previous GBPNZD chart (also in related ideas) but I don't think the move is done yet. Today we had lots of bullish gold publications, lots of technical traders calling bottoms, even myself for a minute but I'm not so sure anymore. Not with this background and the lower timeframe analysis of the move from the lows. I think we will have to wait for any kind of longer term reversal, and for now I'd suggest waiting for GBPNZD to get oversold to buy it, and waiting for gold rallies to fade them,same with the Kiwi. As a sidenote, I believe it's highly probable to see an intermediate bottom form in the near term, but it won't happen today. I'll monitor the RBNZ decision, we might have good opportunities on the short side very soon. Cheers, Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
9
GBPNZD: the beginning of a longterm uptrendThis is my time at mode analysis of this pair. Currently kicking off with a strong uptrend off a longterm mode. The horizontal lines map different areas of high volume from the past, which were 'fair value' at one given time. They are magnetic in nature and offer valuable clues as to where price will move, or where price will stop and reverse. In Elliott Wave terms, there's a clear impulse in sight, but I'm not 100% sure about its construction. Quoting my friend's Nick Coulby's work, this might be the start of the 3rd wave, inside a larger 5 wave structure. This could always resolve into a series of nested 1-2,1-2 impulses that end up in an explosive move up, so I'll just focus on buying the correction completion.
Long
by IvanLabrie
18
GBPNZD: Potential range tradeWe have a confluence of signals indicating a long is possible from this area. We got: Key hidden levels options expirations support Downtrend signal that probably won't be reached in time. (if not reached = bullish!) RgMov in an uptrend since the inverted head and shoulders in jangseohee's chart formed. Also showing fibonacci levels of support at play. (It can be used to detect trends and sentiment very well, great tool) CCI showing a hidden divergence and quarterly ROC showing an uptrend. Price action suggests this oversold spike down reached its end, specially if we break above the last daily bar's high. Feel free to comment, and take this trade as well...Keep in mind price can extend down to meet my forecasted time at mode downtrend target by April 17th. I don't think it will, but it can. Targets would be between 1.97 and 1.99 in a strong surge, but it can extend higher. Stops are to be placed based on your own criteria, always follow your methodology, this is nothing more than a trade journal. Good luck!
Long
by IvanLabrie
14
GBPNZD: Correction spottedThis is an interesting chart. I was under the impression that this was a running correction intially but the recent price action makes me think otherwise. The majority of the people are expecting a rate cut this week, during the RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday. With heavy UK data coming out tomorrow, volatility is a given and I think the bigger risk/reward ratio will be on the short side. Looking to short this week, using the 4h chart for entry, and scaling in as we move forward. I'll update with my entry and scale ins once the trade is active. This trade would serve as a hedge for GBPUSD longs. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
21
GBPNZD: Forming an expanding terminal wedgeWe have one more push up left before this turns into a massive short in my opinion. Right now, I had a short running, from a lower timeframe entry but I'll cover and go long at the support level in green, which also matches an 11 bar daily mode. Look at the momentum indicators, I plotted a derivative oscillator, composite index and RSI with averages to illustrate my point: This is a topping formation, suggesting we sell the next swing up, which will probably form a lower momentum and atr peak before the house of cards comes crashing down. Risk is 180 pips, but the target lies 809.3 pips up, so I won't hesitate with this setup. Once we take profits from the long trade, we can initiate a short at the same area, so, leaving a take profit and a reverse position at the same price, using an ATR based stop. Will modify it if need be, for now I'd reccomend focusing on the long. See the related ideas for more examples on this methodology applied to this pair. Time at mode has been excellent at timing and pricing swing end points before, and I believe it will work again this time. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
35
Channel resistance to be watched on kiwi dollar following RBNZTwo weeks ago, I suggested that the kiwi dollar could stop falling (after 12 consecutive weeks of declines against the US dollar) as a long term support at $0.65 was being tested. Prices are back up to $0.6515 just before the RBNZ rate statement later today. The consensus expects another 25 bp cut in the main refinancing rate to 3.00%. The latest cut took the markets by surprise in June, but I'm a bit skeptical of a strong movement downward this time around given that it may already be priced in (this doesn't necessarily mean that there will be a kiwi rally following the statement. To me, what really matters is the language in the press release. I don't expect much of a change from the June statement, but it is very likely that the RBNZ maintains an overall dovish stance with regards to inflation expectations given continued decline in commodities prices since June. The GlobalDailryTrade (GDT) price index (www.globaldairytrade.info) fell to all-time lows on 15 July, which may weigh further on New Zealand export prices. In the event that the RBNZ doesn't announce a rate cut today, I'll still maintain a fundamental bearish bias on the kiwi dollar and will look for any additional dovish information in the press release to support this view. As for technicals, so long as prices trade below $0.67 following the rate statement, short strategies may come back into play. If prices test the channel resistance (currently around $0.67) with rates unchanged, this is where I'd be looking for further dovish hints in the press release to really consider a short trade (initial target at $0.65 with stop above $0.6750). Conclusion : technicals and fundamentals may line back up following the RBNZ statement today, providing new opportunities to short the kiwi dollar.
Short
by ABRAK75
14
Pair trade: Short NZDUSD, Long GBPUSDI'll open a pair trade to minimize risk in my GBPUSD long setup. There's a weekly sell opportunity in the NZDUSD chart, which will give me a relatively low risk entry as per my analysis that gold isn't done falling, and that NZDUSD (and GBPNZD will resume the trend they are in). Position size is based on the ADR figures for both pairs, risking 2% and aiming for the targets on chart. There will be no stop loss, so, if you find this idea attractive, take the trade at your own risk. GBPUSD's ADR: 112.7 pips NZDUSD's ADR: 89.7 pips Thus, I'll open two positions, adjusting the NZDUSD one by 1,25x to match the GBPUSD volatility. The setup on chart shows a conservative SL in case you'd rather trade it individually. Good luck, Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
51
AUDNZD: Time and price target for a reversalOk, some traders noticed this vertical advance and want to short it. I do too, but not for now. I'll wait for confirmation before going short, but it looks like a potentially very good trade. It's reassuring that we are at the start of a new quarter, and many trends will start to reverse, and many pairs will come out of consolidation patterns as money managers take profits to show results to their investors, and also, the Grexit drama rears its ugly head once again, during tonight's Asia/London session. I'm considering this trade, once the price in the daily and 4h charts confirm the entry. For now, keep a close watch to both time and price, since this zone is critical in my view. I'll update the chart with my entry. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
19
NZDUSD: Bottom might be inLooking to go long NZDUSD on a retracement to my buy zone. The trade will be split in three orders. Stops will be directly under the low for one of them, below the red line on the chart, and slightly below the last bar open (factoring in the spread). This is a higher risk trade, but potential rewards make up for the exposure. I will risk 1% on the setup, and scale in with smaller 0.5% risk batches if I get more opportunities. Since the time at mode downtrend target hasn't been reached, nor the time expired, it might be a long shot, but I feel it's a good opportunity to jump the gun, based on the weekly chart divergent low, and the FOMC induced 4h bar, as well as the levels where price stopped falling at. If we move above the monthly mode with confidence, this might be the start of a strong uptrend. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
27
EURNZD: Multidisciplinary approachInteresting observations about EURNZD, if you are long from the bottom, good for you! But where do you take profits? Where do you scale in or how do you trail stops? Good questions that depend on your own methodology. Here, I'm seeing multiple hints for a possible top in this relentless rally. Everyone's pessimistic about the New Zealand Dollar, which makes me want to do the opposite...but how do I justify it? In the chart we can see a potential Elliott Wave count and time analysis, which guess what? Matches my time at mode uptrend signal. An AB=CD measured target of swings gives us a projected top where wave A and B would be equal in size...Now, if this were indeed A and C and the correction in the middle was a wave B expanded flat, then this would be a possible top for this rally. Moving on, the time at mode profile balance point lies a bit higher than the AB=CD, and projected zigzag top (as long as wave C is 1:1 with wave A and not an extended wave C...or God forbid, an incomplete and huge wave 3, which would be very strange, but not impossible). The range target has been exceeded, and I'm positive there's an overwhelming number of NZD bears, and with the modes becoming smaller after the middle one with 11 bars, I wouldn't attempt a daily chart long here, too risky. So, what to do? You know the drill...Let's sit and wait for a confirmed short entry instead. -unless you have time in your hands and can trade lower timeframes like my friend Nick Coulby, who's sitting in a profitable lower tf long). Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
6
NZDUSD: Interesting contrarian point of viewI'm looking at NZDUSD as a potentially long trade, why I decided to chart the inverse pair, USDNZD to change the perspective a bit. What I see is a potential large short* opportunity (*in USDNZD) , if the profile balance point proves to be a reversal level, and the distribution becomes a normal one, forming a bell curve shape. (respective to the time spent at price profile, a technique I learned from Tim West). The rate cut formed a very wild outside bar, which isn't clearly bullish, yet it happened at a very volatile juncture, inside a 10 bar mode. The shape of the pattern is looking like an expanding triangle, but I'm not sure of the EW specifics. For the time being, I'll watch this pair for short trade setups, and will update the thread if I see a good opportunity. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
11