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Rbnz

Channel resistance to be watched on kiwi dollar following RBNZTwo weeks ago, I suggested that the kiwi dollar could stop falling (after 12 consecutive weeks of declines against the US dollar) as a long term support at $0.65 was being tested. Prices are back up to $0.6515 just before the RBNZ rate statement later today. The consensus expects another 25 bp cut in the main refinancing rate to 3.00%. The latest cut took the markets by surprise in June, but I'm a bit skeptical of a strong movement downward this time around given that it may already be priced in (this doesn't necessarily mean that there will be a kiwi rally following the statement. To me, what really matters is the language in the press release. I don't expect much of a change from the June statement, but it is very likely that the RBNZ maintains an overall dovish stance with regards to inflation expectations given continued decline in commodities prices since June. The GlobalDailryTrade (GDT) price index (www.globaldairytrade.info) fell to all-time lows on 15 July, which may weigh further on New Zealand export prices. In the event that the RBNZ doesn't announce a rate cut today, I'll still maintain a fundamental bearish bias on the kiwi dollar and will look for any additional dovish information in the press release to support this view. As for technicals, so long as prices trade below $0.67 following the rate statement, short strategies may come back into play. If prices test the channel resistance (currently around $0.67) with rates unchanged, this is where I'd be looking for further dovish hints in the press release to really consider a short trade (initial target at $0.65 with stop above $0.6750). Conclusion : technicals and fundamentals may line back up following the RBNZ statement today, providing new opportunities to short the kiwi dollar.
Short
by ABRAK75
14
Pair trade: Short NZDUSD, Long GBPUSDI'll open a pair trade to minimize risk in my GBPUSD long setup. There's a weekly sell opportunity in the NZDUSD chart, which will give me a relatively low risk entry as per my analysis that gold isn't done falling, and that NZDUSD (and GBPNZD will resume the trend they are in). Position size is based on the ADR figures for both pairs, risking 2% and aiming for the targets on chart. There will be no stop loss, so, if you find this idea attractive, take the trade at your own risk. GBPUSD's ADR: 112.7 pips NZDUSD's ADR: 89.7 pips Thus, I'll open two positions, adjusting the NZDUSD one by 1,25x to match the GBPUSD volatility. The setup on chart shows a conservative SL in case you'd rather trade it individually. Good luck, Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
51
AUDNZD: Time and price target for a reversalOk, some traders noticed this vertical advance and want to short it. I do too, but not for now. I'll wait for confirmation before going short, but it looks like a potentially very good trade. It's reassuring that we are at the start of a new quarter, and many trends will start to reverse, and many pairs will come out of consolidation patterns as money managers take profits to show results to their investors, and also, the Grexit drama rears its ugly head once again, during tonight's Asia/London session. I'm considering this trade, once the price in the daily and 4h charts confirm the entry. For now, keep a close watch to both time and price, since this zone is critical in my view. I'll update the chart with my entry. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
19
NZDUSD: Bottom might be inLooking to go long NZDUSD on a retracement to my buy zone. The trade will be split in three orders. Stops will be directly under the low for one of them, below the red line on the chart, and slightly below the last bar open (factoring in the spread). This is a higher risk trade, but potential rewards make up for the exposure. I will risk 1% on the setup, and scale in with smaller 0.5% risk batches if I get more opportunities. Since the time at mode downtrend target hasn't been reached, nor the time expired, it might be a long shot, but I feel it's a good opportunity to jump the gun, based on the weekly chart divergent low, and the FOMC induced 4h bar, as well as the levels where price stopped falling at. If we move above the monthly mode with confidence, this might be the start of a strong uptrend. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
27
EURNZD: Multidisciplinary approachInteresting observations about EURNZD, if you are long from the bottom, good for you! But where do you take profits? Where do you scale in or how do you trail stops? Good questions that depend on your own methodology. Here, I'm seeing multiple hints for a possible top in this relentless rally. Everyone's pessimistic about the New Zealand Dollar, which makes me want to do the opposite...but how do I justify it? In the chart we can see a potential Elliott Wave count and time analysis, which guess what? Matches my time at mode uptrend signal. An AB=CD measured target of swings gives us a projected top where wave A and B would be equal in size...Now, if this were indeed A and C and the correction in the middle was a wave B expanded flat, then this would be a possible top for this rally. Moving on, the time at mode profile balance point lies a bit higher than the AB=CD, and projected zigzag top (as long as wave C is 1:1 with wave A and not an extended wave C...or God forbid, an incomplete and huge wave 3, which would be very strange, but not impossible). The range target has been exceeded, and I'm positive there's an overwhelming number of NZD bears, and with the modes becoming smaller after the middle one with 11 bars, I wouldn't attempt a daily chart long here, too risky. So, what to do? You know the drill...Let's sit and wait for a confirmed short entry instead. -unless you have time in your hands and can trade lower timeframes like my friend Nick Coulby, who's sitting in a profitable lower tf long). Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
6
NZDUSD: Interesting contrarian point of viewI'm looking at NZDUSD as a potentially long trade, why I decided to chart the inverse pair, USDNZD to change the perspective a bit. What I see is a potential large short* opportunity (*in USDNZD) , if the profile balance point proves to be a reversal level, and the distribution becomes a normal one, forming a bell curve shape. (respective to the time spent at price profile, a technique I learned from Tim West). The rate cut formed a very wild outside bar, which isn't clearly bullish, yet it happened at a very volatile juncture, inside a 10 bar mode. The shape of the pattern is looking like an expanding triangle, but I'm not sure of the EW specifics. For the time being, I'll watch this pair for short trade setups, and will update the thread if I see a good opportunity. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
11
AUDNZD medium termAs the fundamental situation is changing I am looking to join the new up trend building. RBNZ last year was rising rate and now they are thinking to cut, on the other hand RBA after the last cut is becoming more neutral. Technically this cross has made a new higher high coming from an all time low, at the moment it looks too stretched and in need of a technical retracement. At the end of the retracement I'll be a buyer. I'll try to buy as low as possible to be able to place my stop loss below the all time low and keep my R:R higher than 1:1
Long
by DoNotFolloWmE
5
EURNZD: Time at mode uptrend signal expires in one dayAs you can see in the chart, we have had a strong bullish move from the lows after breaking a highest low trendline. Right now, there's risk of a broad depreciation of the euro vs stronger currencies, in particular vs the higher yielding Kiwi and the dollar, naturally. After crude oil started correcting, most euro, chf and gbp pairs started strong bullish legs, but we might be nearing said legs' end. The last uptrend target signal in the daily will expire after tomorrow's NY close, suggesting a possible reversal or correction. Other interesting facts: -Ichimoku shows chikou span hitting cloud resistance, which is very bearish. -Price just hit a previous mode, a strong resistance area. The idea is shorting under the highest daily low once that happens. Good luck! Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
9
EURNZD: Wave 1-2-3, done, now?This is a time at mode analysis of the current EURNZD uptrend. We have an uptrend time expiration in 2 bars and CCI divergence in the recent top, whilst also seeing the highest low level taken by the last down bar. On top of this, price reached and exceeded the target ahead of time, by three times the projected range, which tells me it's currently overbought. Sellers might be in control for the time being. Using EW rules, we could conclude the next wave should be a sharp correction, but I'll refrain from taking a guess here. I want to take the long side, If there's a short opportunity I'll use the downtrend to time my long entry. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
10
NZDCHF: Monthly map - Potential long term NZD weakness aheadInformational chart only. If we cross the level price sits at confidently, we might retest lower areas, around the 0.63043 mark. I'll update with a shorter timeframe short entry. Currently in the middle of a very strong decline with no pause. Looks to be impulsive behavior after a long term consolidation. The triangle in CCI is wild speculation, but makes me think this consolidation phase is over. Among other factors, derived from observing multiple currency pairs.
by IvanLabrie
9
Hi-Prop Reversal @ 93.661 | $NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #elliottwaveFriends, As you may recall, a recent predictive analysis/forecasting was released for this same $NZDJPY pair, pertaining to a higher timeframe (4-hour - See link below). Fundamental analysis remains intact here regarding the $NZD. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: Looking at the internal activity of the aforementioned 4-Hour chart, I applied the predictive/forecasting model to define a high-probable level of reversal. That level is currently defined as: - TG-Hi = 93.661 - 23 DEC 2014. If and once this level controls price, one shuold shift back to the higher timeframe (4-hour chart0, which remains the controlling frame for this pair at the moment, FIBONACCI RELEVANCE: A Fibonacci matrix is overlaid here, but lends no clear alignment with any forecast level of support. Instead, the structural level defined at 91.611 should offer a temporary support IF and once price adopts a bearish tack. ELLIOTT WAVE RELEVANCE: The dominant price action remains that of a complex internal zig-zags, one at a higher-degree (in purple) defined by a pending w-x-y-xx-(z) and a lesser-degree 1-2-3-4-(5) impulse, both of which hold a high-probability of corroborating with the predictive/forecasting model's target at 93.611. This apical level would possibly complete a over-throw at Point-e, satisfying a bearish Ending Diagonal requirement. OVERALL: The original chart of interest rests at the 4-hour level. However, this 1-hour timefarme offers a chance to calibrate a reversal level in support of the predictive/forecasting analysis effected in the H4 level, which sees a dominant bearish control in price. INVALIDATION: The analysis should be considered invalid IF and once price commits to a level higher than Point-W = 93.968. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster -----
Short
by 4xForecaster
12
RBNZ want a cheaper KIWI !!Based on the fundamental facts that the RBNZ need a cheaper Kiwi to improve their economy. That and concern over the dairy trade will bring the Kiwi lower. In regards to the technicals, according to the ABCD Fibonacci extension there is further downside to be seen. This geometrical pattern was structured using the weekly pivot high as A (0.8840), weekly pivot low as B (0.7354) and weekly pivot high July 2014 yearly high as C (0.8840). The RED arrow points to where price broke through the triangle pattern and created a new Supply Zone. This RED SUPPLY zone should keep price down and is a great zone to short the Kiwi in regards to risk reward! I have 3 D extension targets in which Target 1 and 2 or more likely to get hit. I am expecting Targets 1 and 2 to be hit within the 1st half of 2015.
Short
by Fiiyat
GBPNZD - Short Term BearishRBNZ Interest Rate Decision - there has been speculation that the bank will cut rate today. In anticipation of this most of the NZD pairs have shown NZD to be weak as other have gained. However, looking at all NZD pairs it seems that the gains have been of the corrective nature. Therefore, if the rates are maintained there could be spike in the prevailing direction and then reverse. So with that in mind whilst GBPNZD remains long term bullish, the overall correction in play from recent high at 2.10 is still in development. If correct I suspect we might get short opportunity with high at 2.081 as the pivot on which suitable protective stop loss could be place or even better the high of 2.10. Downside target is potentially 1.97 - 1.95 zone as the bottom of the rising trend channel. Failing this once the action has settled a short position could be considered on any retracement of the initial decline. As always, if you like my analysis select to follow me and the chart but do your own analysis for any trade planning and appropriate money management. DanV
Short
by DanV
2
$NZD Nears Bullish Shark Completion; Sees 5-0 Completion #forexTraders, There is little question that the fundamentals have pulled the carpet from underneath this export-dependent economy, and that a slumping Asian theater demand will do nothing supportive for this currency. However, on a technical basis, there is a possibility of a Bullish Shark reversal at the 0.81335 level. This pattern is often flanked with its acolyte, namely the 5-0 pattern, whose namesake points to a 50% retracement of the Shark conclusive swing. Overlay of predictive/forecasting model has produced the following probable targets - listed in expected chronological visits: 1 - TG-1 = 0.81335 - 10 SEP 2014 2 - TG-Hi = 0.84838 - 10 SEP 2014 and 3 - TG-2 = 0.7866 - 10 SEP 2014 As indicated earlier this evening in the Forex Intel Room (link: www.tradingview.com ): "ANZ hit target on its $NZDUSD Short circa 0.82 (Medium-Term) at a profit of +400 pips" This major bank's relief of its bearish pressure on the $NZD supposes that a lightening up of institutional weight combined with above proposed technical reasoning, may indeed provide the mechanical lift to see it rise to the defined targets above. I will continue to use this chart to post $NZD-related charting and technical commentaries, including occasional Forex Intelligence on major banks' FX positioning from linked room above. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ------------------ Twitter: @4xForecaster ------------------
Long
by 4xForecaster
16