NzdUsd - Trade UpdateWe are very right side of the market, pair broken down the bearish channel. In idea case, stop loss can be moved up bit, but we are not changing our initial plan and stick to 8300 stop loss level, and same for target.
Rbnz
Nzd-Usd Position StrategyIntraday Analysis Overview
Taking Points
- Technical Strategy: Long@.8380
- Trendline Broken On Daily Chart
- Candlestick Pattern: Morning StarTrend is down, but chart showing possible pullback, and this is considerable counter-trend.
On elliottwave, we are able to count five waves down on NZDUSD and considerable we will be in wave 2 / wave B. Price brokendown the bearish trendline with having “Morning Star” pattern on daily chart, which can be quite consider to trade.
Strategy
- Entered long @ 8380 with stoploss @ 8300 for targets 8500, 8570, 8600
AUDNZD on Short SideThis pair is about to complete it's first leg of correction, and can be sell for target 1.099 to 1.0760 area
All Targets Hit - Potential Reversal Pending | $NZD #RBNZ #forexTraders,
On March 28th, I defined three distinct targets, all of which have been hit. The most recent target remained pending on last analysis (see it here: ), when TG-3 = 0.88099 was overing a few pips above and fundamentals were waivering (milk prices were pointing down while RBNZ was talking about increasing its rate).
At this point, TG-3 has been hit dead-on and price rolled over half of the most recent bullish impulse, suggesting a potential strengthening among bears.
The predictive /forecasting model that helped defined all targets remains bullish, but I would caution against too much optimism at this point. Fundamentals aside, investors and institutional bankers have started to short this pair, so expect added downward pressure.
0.84013 could be used as a structural mark if the model (i.e.: algo signals) remains equivocal. As you may recall, all targets defined by numbers have a higher probability of getting hit, while all targets defined as TG-Hi or TG-Lo (referring to highest/lowest possible price excursion), carry a lesser probability of getting hit, but IF and once price reach these levels, they often act as reversal levels.
So far, all numerical targets (i.e.: TG-1, 2, and 3) have been hit, and TG-Hi remains perched at a loft 0.94565 value. I would want to see a break-above, close-above 0.88345 before looking at TG-Hi as a feasible ascent.
OVERALL:
In light of mounting institutional downward pressures and fundamental deterioration of commodities pricing, the bullish technical picture would carry less weight than current real-world developments. However, the model remains bullish. In the face of such analytical divergence, I will leave the directional indicator as "Neutral", until all elements line up, or price action attains the levels defined above.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
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Bearish Targets ... Even Deeper Downside? | $NZD $CAD #RBNZ #BOCFriends,
On a pure fundamental basis, a rate-based directional bias should favor a decline in the NZDCAD pair.
First, $NZD was recently affected by a decline in its dairy futures pricing, bringing the currency to a double-top formation near the 0.87525 level, and capping any new advance on the back on these futures price concerns.
Also, RBNZ stated:
"We saw nothing today to change our view that this tightening cycle has a long way to run before it’s all over and done", suggesting a low-likelihood of any added hike in its rate, especially following its 25% cash rate hike on June 11, 2014.
On the Loonie side, #BOC remains in a wait-and-see stance. Its initial consideration was to favor a decline in its rate. However, it also expressed concerns about any rate hike based on its export impact. In fact, consensus so far sees a "positive manufacturing trends and an improving U.S. economy" as a basis for an ulterior rate hike, but none have expressed a likelihood for this rate hike to occur in July 2014 - Rather, an increasing number of economist are suggesting that November would represent the earliest such hike, if at all.
PATTERN ANALYSIS:
On a pure pattern play, this category of trader might perceive the morphing of either Bullish Bat, whose Point-D would complete the pattern at 0.92020, although a more bearishly expectant trader might see a crab completing at a lower 0.89802 level.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
The model has produced a bearish market reversal confirmation signal, setting two bearish targets as follows:
1 - TG-1 = 0.92446 - 07 JUL 2014
and
2 - TG-2 = 0.91884 - 07 JUL 2014
These targets are colored to suggest that TG-1 (yellow) represents a moderate-probability target, whereas TG-2 (red) represents a lower-probability target. However, further downside is also probable, based on the recency of the reversal signal and the potential downside revealed by daily and weekly timeframes.
OVERALL:
Bearish outlook is based on the complicity of fundamental, pattern and predictive model data. An interim reaction to the upside remains a possibility as usual, but the technical data favors a downturn so far.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive & Forecasting Analysis
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Twitter: @4xForecasting
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All Bearish Targets Hit ... Momental Channels | $AUD $NZD #RBNZFriends,
Last Wednesday, June 04th, I released two bearish targets, namely:
1 - TG-1 = 1.08986 - 04 JUN 14
and
2 - TG-2 = 1.08521.
(Source: )
Both of these bearish targets got hit with great precision as of this hour (see M14 timeframe for a closer look of the price action relative to these two bearish targets here: ).
A third target, standing at the antipod of these recent two hits, was also defined last week on that same day. That bullish target remains defined as:
TG-1 = 1.11619 - 04 JUN 14.
While price did escape its standard channel, part of this demonstration I discussed about last time within the analysis was the use of momental lines/channels, in contrast to standard price channels.
A QUICK LOOK AT MOMENTAL LINES:
A closer look at the price action will define a close correlation between candle anatomy (wick and body) relative to these channels. For instance, the long bearish candle was born out of a split between two candles. That prior candle was itself coming out of a consolidation of candles whose wicks/bodies were clearly transected by these momental channels.
In any case, the idea here is that technical analysis contains layers upon layers of occult geometries that are based on static (highs/lows point definition) as well as other hidden geometries defined by dynamic price action. Indeed, the momental lines are merely measuring the momentum of the price action, with one essential distinction: While standard price channels (included in this group all pitchforks, such as Schiff, modified Schiff and inside pitchforks) "live" along a short price action, momental lines retain the ability to define price S/R across the entire life of the chart and across any timeframes. In essence, momental lines have a fractal property that is just as distinct as Elliott Waves and geometric patterns.
While these momental lines remain unshared in their construction, the neat property of TradingView charts is that you are able to acquire the chart I built and move any elements around. This means that you can move these momental lines around and use them to follow price as it evolves.
At this point, I will keep the directional bias as "Neutral" while price consolidates.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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Fundamentals Looking Long | $NZD $USD $EUR $JPY #forexFriends,
TRADE PROFILE:
Only three days ago, I took the opportunity of a long entry based on a daily chart which confirmed support near the 87.350 level. A layered analysis comprising my prop predictive analysis and forecasting favored a bull directional bias with a series of bullish targets of moderate-probability quality.
Despite being a technical analyst, I like to make sure that the "real world" foundation upon which I build my analyses remains solid and reliable for the future before using turning to abstract methodologies that define my predictive analysis and forecasting system - much like a painter has to ensure the quality of the canvas before turning to its interpretive sense of the landscape.
For this exercise, I like to turn to what central banks are currently thinking or are likely to do in the weeks or months ahead. My sources are simply central bank news outlet, easily reference my mere Google queries. So, let's see what the fundamental data reveals of each of these currencies, before we turn to the technical analysis that led me to take a long position and caused me to pin overhead resistance and forecast levels.
In essence, I am walking you, TradingView trader, through the step-wise analysis in which I engage. In real time terms, it might take me about 20 minutes to establish a bias through fundamentals and technical analysis, then a bout 2-3 minutes to check the charts once or twice a day.
Let's delve into the fundamental then technical analyses.
FUNDAMENTAL DATA AND ITS EFFECT ON PRICE IN THE CHART:
At best, for the NZDJPY trade to move in our forecast direction, significant fundamental data would need to mobilize each currencies of the chart, such that NZD moves up through propelling fundamental forces of a bullish nature, while JPY moves through opposite fundamental forces of a bearish nature. At worse, each currencies would bathe in a neutral fundamental environment, while NZD would confer a bullish move, or inversely, JPY would react to a bearish move, each resulting in a net bullish move.
So, let's look at the fundamental news affecting each of these majors.
NZD FUNDAMENTAL DATA:
Regarding the NZD fundamental outlook, this commodity-based economy has reacted to both a significant decline in dairy pricing, yet another incremental rise in its RBNZ rate hike on April 24th, 2014. This would represent a second rate hike for the year, while central bank commentaries have hinted at a "85% chance of another rate hike in both June and July.
WHAT NZD SHOWS IN THE CHART:
While the market for milk should pressure NZD downwards, central banks have continued to pull on the rate hiking level, this forcing NZD upwards, causing a net bullish force behind the WEEKLY green candle - See how the green candle also retraced to regain the loss incurred by its preceding three bearish candles, and how it is currently preparing to end this week right at the level of the forth prior candle's close.
JPY FUNDAMENTAL DATA:
ECB Kuroda's statement could not be any more explicit:
""The bank will continue with quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2%"
Indeed, Japan is on track toward 2% inflation with a March 2014 inflation rate of 1.61% - a target that is believe to be reached in 2015 or 2016.
Here, the fundamental data supports a deliberate bearish pressure on the Yen.
... (cont'd in the commentary body - This is a live input, so give it time) ...
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
PS: ALL of my predictive analyses (basic and prop patterns, occult geometries, directional interpretation and reversal point determination) and forecasting methodology uses TradingView's panoply of charting tools. The charts I post are the product of use of TradingView's broad spectrum of technical tools and fundamental reference, which remains attainable to all prospective minds. That means you.
- David Alcindor
