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New Zealand dollar slide continuesThe New Zealand dollar has extended its losses on Friday, after five straight losing sessions. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6823, down 0.45% on the day. Risk apprehension is sharply lower in the markets today, as a Covid variant which has spread in South Africa is causing concern around the world. Two cases of the variant were detected in Hong Kong today and it's a safe bet that it has spread to other regions as well. Investors have responded by dumping risky assets and snapping up safe-havens like the US dollar. This has weighed on the slumping New Zealand dollar, which is down 2.36% this week. The New Zealand dollar didn't get any help from the RBNZ, which raised rates by 0.25%, to 0.75%. The central bank has now raised rates for two consecutive months and has signalled that it will continue to raise rates. Nevertheless, there was some disappointment that the bank didn't show a more aggressive hand and hike rates by 0.50%. The New Zealand dollar tumbled after the decision and lost 1.0% on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is expected to accelerate the tapering of its pandemic bond purchase programme. The FOMC minutes showed that policy makers are concerned about inflation and stated that if inflation continues to rise, they are willing to consider adjusting bond purchases and raising interest rates. Goldman Sachs said in a note on Thursday that it expects to Fed to double its taper trim from USD 15 billion to USD 30 billion each month, starting in January. This means that the programme will be wound up by March instead of June. An earlier end to the bond purchase scheme means that the Fed can look at raising rates sooner, which is bullish for the US dollar. NZD/USD continues to break below support levels. The pair is testing support at 0.6857. Below, 0.6747 is a monthly support level There is resistance at 0.7059 and 0.7120
by OANDA
The Cautious Kiwi (25 November 2021)As widely expected, we see a further tightening of monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) during the meeting on Wednesday. But the decision did not gain any positive market reaction for the New Zealand dollar as the 0.25% hike in interest rate had already been priced in. It was a 0.50% hike that the market was yearning for. Once the market did not receive the 0.50% hike, a strong sell-off in the New Zealand dollar followed across the board. Catalysts for more rate hikes: maximum employment, high inflation and rising home prices The RBNZ highlighted that employment in New Zealand is now above its maximum sustainable level while unemployment rate has declined to the lowest level in over a decade. At the same time, annual inflation in the country has risen to 4.9%, way above the central bank’s 1-3% target amid the ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and the rising global oil prices. Furthermore, the RBNZ is expecting prices to remain high in the near term before declining back down to within their targeted range. On the matter of home prices, the central bank’s officials concluded that the current level of home prices are unsustainable but noted that continued hikes in interest rate will likely lead to more sustainable home prices. Bond holdings under LSAP no longer significant With the functioning of the bond market improving, the RBNZ has stopped purchasing bonds under the Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) programme in July. Furthermore, the current holdings of the bonds purchased by the central bank are only providing meagre stimulus. Thus, the RBNZ will be providing more details on winding down its bond holdings early next year. All is not lost! Although the modest rate hike was kind of a disappointment, causing the New Zealand dollar to take a hit, it is likely that the impact will be temporary. The RBNZ’s interest rate projection for 2022 indicates that rate hikes are expected in every quarter of the year, with interest rate rising to 2.1% by year-end. This interest rate level has surpassed the pre-pandemic level, thus indicating the central bank’s forecast that the New Zealand economy in 2022 is likely going to outperform the year just before the pandemic struck. The projection material also showed that the RBNZ is expecting annual inflation to peak at 5.7% during the first quarter of 2022 before declining steadily to 3.3% by year-end. However, the expected decline throughout the year is insufficient for inflation to fall within the central bank’s 1-3% target. And so, the officials may still consider a more aggressive rate hike as an option in the future in order to add more downward pressure on prices.
by GH_Lee
NZDJPY Swing trade + Fundamental DriversHello Traders! A high conviction trade is in the table, anything around 80.200 region is very good. Place stops below the supply zone. Take profit at the highs. Fundamental Drivers New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Fundamental Bias: Bullish 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their Oct meeting, the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was already fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones we saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD pushing lower. There was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting headline CPI to climb above 4 percent in the near term, but the most important part of the statement was the subsequent comment that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2 percent midpoint over the medium term and that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the August meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment, which means keeping close tabs on incoming data and the virus situation will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains firmly titled to the upside, and as rates keeps rising, the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments Virus cases can still have an impact on NZD sentiment, which means the fact that NZ virus cases is at record high levels is something to pay attention to. For now, it’s had very limited impact on the NZD due to the NZ government abandoning their covid-zero strategy and since virus risks have been downplayed by the RBNZ, but further escalation leading to more lockdowns will be important to keep on the radar. Japanese Yen (JPY) Fundamental Bias: Bearish 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y . However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. With bond yields looking a bit stretched at the current levels any decent mean reversion is expected to be supportive for the JPY, so it remains a key asset class to keep track. Have a great week! Regards Vitez
Long
by Vitezabraham
NZDJPY Swing trade that you can take now + Fundamental Drivers Hello Traders! We approached a significant support area and having a strong fundamental and seasonal upside bias for the New Zealand Dollar against the Japanese Yen. Enter at market is possible manage risk below the support area. Fundamental Drivers: New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Fundamental Bias: Bullish 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ: At their Oct meeting, the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was already fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones we saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD pushing lower. There was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting headline CPI to climb above 4 percent in the near term, but the most important part of the statement was the subsequent comment that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2 percent midpoint over the medium term and that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the August meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment, which means keeping close tabs on incoming data and the virus situation will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains firmly titled to the upside, and as rates keeps rising, the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook: As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver 3. Economic and health developments: Virus cases can still have an impact on NZD sentiment, which means the fact that NZ virus cases is at record high levels is something to pay attention to. For now, it’s had very limited impact on the NZD due to the NZ government abandoning their covid-zero strategy and since virus risks have been downplayed by the RBNZ, but further escalation leading to more lockdowns will be important to keep on the radar. 4. CFTC analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +4955 with a net non-commercial position of +13861. The NZD reflects net-long positioning for both large speculators as well as leveraged funds but are nowhere near stress levels right now. With the NZD now sitting on the highest cash rate among the major economies and with expectations of that to continue to rise we think carry attractiveness will become a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead and should mean a favourable upside bias for the NZD against the low yielders like JPY and CHF. In the short- term though, as we mentioned above, the virus situation could see some of the recent upside given back, and also keep overall risk sentiment in mind which saw the NZD failing to benefit from the stellar quarterly jobs data released last week. Japanese Yen (JPY) Fundamental Bias: Bearish 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. With bond yields looking a bit stretched at the current levels any decent mean reversion is expected to be supportive for the JPY, so it remains a key asset class to keep track. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -588 with a net non-commercial position of -107624. The past few weeks of price action in the JPY was mostly driven by the excessive moves we saw in yields on the US side but was also exacerbated by risk on flows and rising oil prices which is a negative driver for Japan for its terms of trade. Even though the bias for the JPY remains firmly tilted to the downside, the moves across JPY pairs is arguably still looking stretched, and with both large speculators and leveraged funds firmly in net-short territory the odds of some mean reversion has increased. We would prefer waiting for some of the froth to mean revert before looking for new JPY shorts. As always, any major risk off flows can still support the JPY, especially with quite a sizable net-short position still built up in the currency for large speculators as well as leveraged funds, but rates have been the key driver in the short-term. The recent violent repricing in bond markets saw a huge push lower in yields that has supported the JPY, if that continues and we also see some risk off tones keep the stretched positioning in mind as it could see a big unwind if conditions align correctly. Have a great weekend! Regards, Vitez
Long
by Vitezabraham
Has the time arrived for KIWI to appreciate VS other currencies?NZDUSD has already broken out fairly well out of its descending trendline and currently due to USD strength, it has fallen this week to around 70 cents. This fall offers a great opportunity to trade this pair LONG as the RISK TO REWARD RATIO is highly feasible TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 1. PRICE BROKE OUT OF A STRONG RELIABLE DESCENDING TRENDLINE ON BOTH DAILY AND WEEKLY CHARTS 2. PRICE ALSO BROKE HIGHER HIGH IN THE PROCESS AND NOW THE NEXT RELEVANT TARGET IS SEEN AT ANOTHER HIGHER HIGH (0.73100) 3. ASCENDING TRENDLINE ACTING AS STRONG SUPPORT TOGETHER WITH MONTHLY CONCRETE SUPPORT AT 0.7000 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS ON WHY NZDUSD WILL LIKELY RISE 1. The improving conditions follow the rollback of Covid restrictions across much of the Kiwi economy. 2. New Zealand’s performance of manufacturing index (BNZ) crossed the wires this morning at 54.3 for October. That is an increase from the upwardly revised September figure of 51.6. 3. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has plenty of ammunition to continue down the path of hiking rates, unlike its cross-Tasman counterpart, the RBA. This gives the New Zealand Dollar a comparative advantage versus the Australian Dollar. NZD rate hike bets have increased in recent weeks while the currency’s performance has lagged against the Greenback. That opens the door for a break higher in NZD/USD on the next bout of USD weakness. TO CONCLUDE Based on both technical and fundamental analysis of the current market picture, we can expect NZD to appreciate against many currencies including the USD.
Long
by FX618Analysis
AUD/NZD Signal - NZD Manufacturing Sales - 8 Sep 2021AUDNZD is trending to the downside prior to the NZD Manufacturing sales data, which are changes in the volume of the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Technically the pair has broken a key support pivot and is now capped by the pivot as resistance, and the RSI is holding at negative levels. We are targeting the 161.8% fibonacci extension at the 1.0340 level. The RBA has announced rate hikes are not likely until 2024, whereas the RBNZ expects to hike rates later this year.
Short
by ToniSignals
AUD Versus NZD: A Fundamental Outlook and TradeFundamentals: It has been a hawkish month for the Reserve Bank of Australia. The recent meeting suggests that their guidance ramps up into a more hawkish tone. Both monetary and fiscal policies are aussie positive, so far. One thing I keep in mind is their fiscal policy in response to the current covid-19 lockdowns. I believe that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is overly hawkish, given their currency price. For the next few weeks, the AUD currency give us a more underdog positioning to exploit versus the NZD currency. Technicals: (1) Monthly support (2) 61.8% fib (3) Oversold indicators (4) Divergence (5) RSI at extreme levels Daily: Weekly:
Long
by Rocketman
NZD/USD - Double Blow Piles Pressure on Range SupportTwo months of consolidation has made things a little dull for the NZD/USD pair and that looked to be coming to an end until a new Covid outbreak brought everything to a halt. The delta strain has many concerned and New Zealand has taken a tough stance since the start of the pandemic - successfully so - which makes the decision far from surprising. What may have come as a surprise was the RBNZ decision to grind its tightening cycle to a corresponding halt before it's even started. While conditions for a hike remain, the RBNZ is in no rush to raise rates during this period of uncertainty. At least one more hike this year is the aim, with rates rising to 2% next year. Of course, Covid will have a big say in whether the central bank can deliver on this. With the country in lockdown and central bank not hiking, it's no surprise we didn't see a break of 0.71 that could have led to further gains as the RBNZ led the G10 in tightening monetary policy. Instead it's 0.69 that looks vulnerable and, in fact, we're currently trading just below here. A look at the 4-hour chart MACD and stochastic suggests there isn't much downside momentum at these levels, which given their significance as support, isn't a good sign. Of course, the flip side is that if we can see a significant breakout, it will carry the surprise factor and likely trigger a lot of stops, exacerbating any initial move. Instead, the pair looks more likely to continue to range trade for now and we're left to assess the threat of the latest breakout and whether the lockdown will be brief, as planned. At which point, the rate hike odds will likely increase and NZD should see support once more.
by OANDA
NZDUSD May Be On The Move After RBNZ Keeps Rates SteadyThe left daily chart shows the NZDUSD pair in the weak area, with the Bollingers starting to expand. This, after the RBNZ kept rates steady at 0.25% (market forecast was for a hike of 25bps). The right hourly chart shows the EMA in bearish formation, with the faster green below the slower orange. Moreover, there is angle and separation which denotes momentum. The stochastic has turned negative too. For, the momentum to continue, we are looking for stochastic to move below 20 and hold (blue arrow). If it is able to do this, an underlying momentum push may be present. We do note that the FOMC meeting minutes are due for release at 6:00 pm GMT, which may affect dollar pairings. Trend following indicators may be useful in this case as a potential exit tool. Stop above hourly resistance in conjunction with risk management techniques.
Short
by FXCM
U-Turn In Rate Hike Decision (18 August 2021)The last-minute decision. During their monetary policy meeting earlier today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) carried out a last-minute change in decision, holding its overnight cash rate unchanged at 0.25%. New COVID case in six months thwarted RBNZ’s rate hike plan. Just yesterday, the first local COVID case was reported in New Zealand in six months. As a result, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a nationwide level-four lockdown with immediate effect. Prior to this new COVID case, the RBNZ was expected to announce a rate hike during today’s meeting as the country’s economic recovery has been robust and the economy is starting to overheat. In the released rate statement, the central bank mentioned that the “ Committee discussed the merits of an increase in the OCR at this meeting and considered the implications of alternative sequencing of OCR changes over time ”. However, with what went down yesterday, the central bank decided to put on hold their rate hike decision, highlighting in the rate statement that the “ decision was made in the context of the Government’s imposition of Level 4 COVID restrictions on activity across New Zealand ”. A delay rather than a setback. New Zealand’s “go hard, go early” approach to the containment of the pandemic has been highly effective as is evident from being one of the first few countries to declare COVID-19 free. With the country’s snap lockdown and effective approach, it is possible that the spread of the virus will be contained within a short period of time and is unlikely going to pose a setback to the country. Moreover, the RBNZ has carried forward their expectation of a rate hike from September 2022 to this coming December as indicated in the quarterly monetary policy statement, delivering a hawkish tone. To conclude, this sudden turn of events is unlikely going to hold the New Zealand economy down for long. As the next monetary policy meeting will be held on 6 October, this will give the central bank sufficient time to make a hawkish return, with the condition that the virus is once again contained swiftly.
by GH_Lee
RBNZ rate decision setup for NZDUSDNext week marks a rate decision event for RBNZ. Currently at 0.25%, there is news in the air for an increase in the rate by 25bp, and possibly another hike before the end of this year. Currently NZDUSD has been flowing more or less in the indicated upward channel. It has fallen due to a strong USD this week and a reversal is in the making. Two highlight points on the chart indicate 1. a slight drop in US retail sales and 2. the RBNZ rate announcement. Provided these events fall in support of the Kiwi, it is expected to bounce up and test the 0.7100 range and possibly further. Point to note: currently the 4h signal shows the reverse from this week's downtrend has already started - however its a Friday!!! I feel like jumping on to the long already but may be worth waiting till NY open or London close to understand the levels better. There's a chance we lose pips on the entry but its a safer play. A well-placed stop may benefit the early birds. See ref. think.ing.com.
Long
by sidnir
AUD/NZD May Extend Losses After RBNZ and New Zealand CPI DataThe recent slightly hawkish RBNZ rate decision and better-than-expected New Zealand second-quarter inflation data is driving local front-end government bond yields higher, especially relative to Australia. AUD/NZD has thus been aiming lower these past few weeks and may continue to do so as it capitalizes on the RBNZ's more hawkish shift compared to the RBA. But, key support remains in focus at 1.0601, which is the May low. Clearing this point exposes the 1.0541 - 1.0564 zone. A bearish crossover between the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages hints at a near-term downward bias. In the event of a material turn higher, keep an eye on potential falling resistance from March. FX_IDC:AUDNZD
by QM_Dubrovsky
NZDUSD confirms falling wedge bullish formation on RBNZ moveNZDUSD registers the strongest intraday gains in three months after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced plans to tapering bond purchases from late July. The kiwi pair’s ability to confirm bullish chart pattern, falling wedge, as well as a sustained break of 100-SMA, also back the buyers to aim for a 13-day-old horizontal resistance near 0.7095. However, the quote’s further upside needs a daily closing beyond the 0.7100 threshold to aim for early June’s low surrounding 0.7125. Meanwhile, 100-SMA and the upper line of the stated wedge, respectively around 0.7010 and 0.6990, could challenge the kiwi pair’s pullback moves. In a case where the NZDUSD prices stabilize below 0.6990, a downward sloping support line near 0.6910 and the 0.6900 round figure may entertain the bears before directing them to the September 2020 tops near 0.6800. Overall, RBNZ’s ability to join the BOC signals further upside for the NZDUSD.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
ridethepig | NZD for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary - NZD for the Yearly Close Here we are tracking the weak points in the structure which are strategically important points in every map. They are usually protected and once broken and be rewarding with non-stop moves. The handle to track here is 0.74xx which is well placed and comes to undertaking other duties of preventing the flow back towards 0.883x. Now the early strength of this can be seen with the latest breakup, it is a monthly closing in drastic fashion - a veteran soldier ready to march. A breakdown in Dollar for 2021 is a 'good deed' for the rest of the world but actually we will cover a whole chapter around how it is the only monetary option. After a Biden victory we can expect them to rush through a digital dollar and trigger defaults, things will develop quickly so time to start paying attention for the 2021 flows now. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
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