Get started

Rbnz

ridethepig | NZD Long-Term Macro Map 📍 NZDUSD Long Term Macro Map An ingenious saving move from buyers, which is extraordinarily difficult to defend. The slingshot, you should also note is an advance momentum play. These come around only once or twice in a cycle, in cramped positions you cannot afford to give opponents free tickets and allow them to make an easy ride. The shakeout was flawless, now buyers are in a much better position from the lows as anticipated: On the NZD macro side, it's the same story everywhere with consumer confidence in the red and credit card spending low. RBNZ bazooka doubled their purchasing program to 60bn NZD last month, while rates are starting to find a floor and look cooked here till 2021. Arden is a breath of fresh air, the handling of the crisis was superb - as New Zealand begin unwind the social distancing we can see the Kiwi find strong demand as her leadership has not gone unnoticed! Updates comes to the AUDNZD chart tomorrow, those who wish to make their fortunes in the crosses will have to wait till later in the week. The limits of 10 charts a day on @tradingview are proving restrictive in getting the entire board updated. In any case, the supple, flexible and sometimes sincere NZD targets for 2020 remain at 0.675x and 0.755x for 2021 respectively.
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.05.26It is evident that a general round of profit taking for buyers is called for, it will act as a catalyst to kickstart a fresh leg into USD and provide a helping hand from markets to put -ve rates back on the table for Fed. One more time it is all eyes on Equities, if those betting on a quick V-shaped recovery lose their tempo we can see blood on the streets. The squeeze higher in NZDUSD is healthy into month end from a strictly positioning perspective. The USD Long boat was heavily loaded to one side and needed a shake-up. The sweep lower in AUD and NZD will demonstrate the exploitation of Keynsian economics. By pushing the USD bid the obvious collateral damage in EM FX and High Beta FX can easily lead to pressure on the inelasticity between Whitehouse / Fed combo. Watch-out for wild swings ahead, we can cover the flows live below.
Short
by ridethepig
4
Long AUD/NZD, targeting 1.1000Recent developments A dovish RBNZ policy announcement has been conducive to the pair's push to a six-month high. Further monetary policy of asset purchases over negative rates was largely expected. Technical analysis The pair has given back a bit since rallying at its fastest pace since 2014 (around 7% increase in just over a month). If it can break past previous 1.0850 key level, then there should be a chance to test 1.10 or at the very least trade up the channel with ease. Primary drivers for a further move up On the fundamental side, elevated risk sentiment on the backdrop of bottoming growth in markets, as well as the continued divergence between RBA and RBNZ should support the upward direction of the pair. Policymakers have remained quite dovish, which should be risk-positive as central banks have incentive to ease rather than tighten. With that being said, the RBNZ policy stance is looking more dovish than the RBA's. We can look at both policy stances and yield curves for an indication of what's to potentially come. The RBNZ have kept the official cash rate at 25 bp, while the base of asset purchasing have been expanded to a cap of NZ$60bn. Although the market seems to be pricing in negative rates, I don't think it's likely that we will see that, given that the RBNZ effectively guided that it won't happen (at least for this year - although this could be on the cards for 2021). Why lose all credibility on forward guidance when there are other methods of easing such as bond purchasing or fixed term loans? Either way, the base case is further easing and I would look towards August and June meetings as further catalysts if financial conditions tighten. On the contrary, the RBA has stopped purchasing bonds since early May after hitting 25 bp on the 3Y; keeping the curve at the current levels should be supportive to Australia, which remains a relatively high yielding Aaa country (despite slight rating downgrade). Risks Downside risk on AUD/NZD lie in 1) narrowing policy differentials, 2) risk sentiment softening, 3) and/or a more hawkish RBNZ that would lead to NZD strength, thus pushing the pair lower. As such, targeting top end of the channel 1.1000 with a stop of 1.05985.
Long
by Miloslaw
6
ridethepig | RBNZ To Cut!All eyes on RBNZ tonight, Equities globally are running out of steam and high beta FX looks set to suffer badly... the Governor has been very vocal around negative rates and protection via debt monetisation if necessary. Markets have quite the habit of unpinning Central Bank promises of late by choosing to apply maximum pressure. RBNZ will have to satisfy the following logic with a 15bps cut to seem credible. On the technical side, a simple breakdown in pure price can be played from the 0.610x handle. I am comfortable going into the meeting short, 0.618x is strong resistance and will keep stops protected, while to the downside 0.600x will serve a suitable initial target. The risk to the thesis comes from the RBNZ being unable to set the dovish stage correctly at this point in the game, the process of unpinning can be seen from quite a different angle. Good luck.
Short
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.05.12A normal move, but one which has a deeper meaning after the Chinese ban on Australian beef. Here tracking closely 0.650x resistance to mark another important high here. It is a clearly loud signal on the foreign policy side of their relationship considerably weakening, the Giant Panda (PBOC) who was once always on the AUD bid has taken cover. While Australia may be better positioned than many in terms of case numbers, it is in no way advisable to emphasise this too much. We are still tracking the same forecasts set out last month: " Inline Case - US and Europe opening in July with clear preparations for further rounds of social distancing programs that will come into play again at year-end through Q1 2021 as the virus migrates back in the Winter months. Opens up another calculated leg down in risk markets to sweep the current floor in place and early buyers It looks like we are set for a re-opening this summer and for schools in the West to go back in September. We will keep a close eye together on whether the inflows dry up, and will it be for long? We'll see. For now keeping a defensive stance, when equities roll over we will have a clearly defined swing and range in play for the rest of 2020. " Remember any hell-bent strategy on buying AUD, without taking into consideration the risks around the fallout of the West with China and their own domestic relationship will end badly. Protectionism, like a garden of weeds, will continue to force globalisation into retreat and wreak havoc! On the technical side, 0.650x is strong resistance and with US Equities S&P sitting under the 3,000 level we have all the 'green lights' for a second selloff in risk markets. I am actively adding AUDUSD shorts at 0.650x with stops above the double top at 0.660x.
Short
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.04.28Across the commodity block, NZD is looking the weakest and most vulnerable with negative rates entering into the picture. This looks unavoidable now and makes NZD the more preferred short across G10 crosses. The resistance is weakly protected as we enter into FED fact territory, the market was a little too long USD and I understand the need for a healthy cleanse, however, the move looks overdone here as I am not expecting any further cuts tomorrow. Equities will hate the bad news, and high beta FX will be first out of the door... last orders at the bar!? On the technical side, strong resistance is located here at the 0.605x - 0.607x region and is the one to track for those wanting to position for FED and a further leg lower in risk markets. The goal for sellers is in protecting these highs and defending any real seizure of the advance, an initial target at the mid point to pay for risk at 0.600x and an extension towards 0.592x is in play for a simple range clear with the CB event. A break below the 0.592x lows will call into question the macro slingshot target at 0.49xx.... INSANE!!! From a macro perspective as soon as your CB unlocks negative rates or foreign asset purchases its game over! You have taken on a well hidden exchange sacrifice. Smart money will exploit it, a slingshot is in play later in the year but will require another sweep of the lows via Covid panic flows into USD ... For those waiting to buy the bird from a long-term perspective, not recommended till the end game in this current leg should we pay any attention towards the development arise. Good luck all those positioning across G10 FX for FED flows, thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comment and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
23
ridethepig | NZD Macro UpdatesHere we go with a round of Macro chart updates, the decline is starting to run out of steam as we enter into support. The initial bounce does not nullify the decline we have seen over the past four years, however it wields influence with 2021 and beyond. The parallel channel we will use for reference technically to define clearly the jurisdictions on both sides. To the topside, resistance can be found at 0.661x which will attract selling interest, while support is located underneath at mid-term 0.58xx. As momentum stalls across the board, it is screaming exhaustion to the downside. Like with physics we will allow the downtrend to exhaust before continuing to create a new MT/LT picture. AUDNZD finding a floor... To put simply, I am expecting a test of 0.58xx over the coming months which will act as a buying interest for the next decade! Highly recommend jumping into the comments with your NZD long-term maps, we can open the macro conversation and create a thread for all to benefit from. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.03.19Divergence in AUD and NZD beginning to widen as large hands dump AUD and pile into NZD. Cases are relatively low in NZ which will keep the RBNZ from going negative, watch-out for AUDNZD breaking parity in the coming sessions. The analysis of the starting position shows us the slingshot is ready to conduct a flanking manoeuvre, but also a quick-witted seller: the exhaustion leg we are tracking can save it from the worst. As long as the 0.49xx lows are in focus, the slingshot can be administered. In this case, the breakdown is coming from Chinese inflows taking a walk, who have been suddenly threatened like a deer in the headlights; (1) AUDCNH (2) NZDCNH After the flash crash the board has been cleared and the lows are naked for sellers to deliver the fatal blow. Instead of a breakdown, we should look to fade these lows. What it means is we have all the ingredients in the pot for a huge rally once we clear the coronavirus flows; so what we need to track market-wise are two 🔑 components: 1️⃣ French & Italian numbers declining 2️⃣ Focus shifting from fatalities to recoveries Remember in terms of markets we are trading perception. This expectation of panic looks set to continue till month-end, I am no expert in virology but from talking to some Chief Exec’s at hospitals on the ground there is a sense that virologists have created something sensational here which is opening the door to overreaction and hype from governments and unlocking (btw in all the wrong places) doors they never thought were possible on both the fiscal and monetary side. Stress in funding markets continues, as long as this remains the case then USD will stay in strong demand until the storm passes, as capital rushes to the doors. AUDUSD - Macro Updates via Coronavirus Impact SHCOMP - Chinese Equities Whatever may be the case, this game is beautiful, as beautiful as it gets. There is a battle of major flows underway, USD will remain bid till we can clear these dark clouds of corona-panic. Or, to put more simply, returning to the starting position creates an easier flow TA-wise that will give buyers an opportunity to grab tempo. As usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and etc coming....What interesting times we are in!
Short
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | NZDCNH Market Commentary 2020.03.01NZD is moving as collateral with AUD, those following the previous AUDCNH idea will know this is no less imaginative. New Zealand is exposed to a short-circuit in Chinese supply chains leaving it vulnerable to a slowdown in China via coronavirus. On the monetary side, RBNZ has been notably quiet around the impact from the virus. The CB will not be able to hide from the slowdown for too long, exports are already being hit, tourism, commodities and consumer confidence! As is the case with AUDCNH: The range we are trading in NZDCNH is clearly defined; 4.7 - 4.05 and this trend has held since 2015. The flip is being broken and a breakdown looks imminent. Given the risk environment, I recommend trading towards support at the 4.05 lows and selling rallies going forward. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes coming on the CNH crosses ... an entire dissection of CNH and the impact from PBOC intervention. Jump into the comments with your charts and views!
Short
by ridethepig
RBA Monetary Policy Meeting. AUDNZD bear domination?!RBA is less likely to provide further support to the Aussie dollar and expect any AUD weakness to be mostly channeled through a lower AUD/NZD, where the monetary policy differential may be more evident (given a neutral RBNZ). Market participants in this cross-currency seem to price in ahead of the meeting where we can see a strong bearish pressure for now in the price action for this cross. We have a key level 1.03753 which acted as support in the past and this level has good weigh as it lines up with weekly pivot point s3 and descending channel lower trendline (acts as supports). Break lower through this key level with good bearish momentum should signal us price can dive more near the major support 1.03131 or even further depending on the outlook reaction after the meeting. If RBA ends up neutral or surprise hike bearish may lose its momentum strength.
Short
by jessi061
1
NZDUSD: RBNZ On The WayThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely give the Kiwi a boost of volatility in the upcoming Asia session with its latest statement on monetary policy. Expectations are for no change this month as recent economic data has been net positive, and as they wait to see the full extent of damage the COVID-19 is set to do to the world economy. The scenario to watch out for is a more dovish-than-expected RBNZ and reversal pattern back to the downtrend after the event for the bearish market. For the bullish bias, any rhetoric lowering the odds of a potential rate cut this year will likely draw in buying support for the Kiwi, at least for the short-term as recent sessions have shown global positive risk sentiment as the main driver for the financial market. One news which might have earlier sparked some volatility on comdolls could be "WHO's Tedros, the first vaccine for COVID-19 (coronavirus) could be ready in 18 months".
by jessi061
ridethepig | AUDNZD Breaking Higher !!A superb time to update the AUDNZD chart after a fresh technical breakup yesterday. The Q4 prints from antipodeans is very positive and actually triggering a slightly hawkish tilt by the RBA. Despite the brutal domestic story in Australia with bushfires and coronavirus spillovers, Scott Morrison has done the heavy lifting via housing policies. There is a lot of AUD shorts to be unwound by leveraged retailers creating a massive upside in AUDNZD with a supportive price driver. The hawkish shift by RBA is subtle and not visible by the naked eye, there is not a single mention of coronavirus spillover effects on growth and if anything emphasis on just how temporary the impacts are. For the technical picture things are a lot clearer in the medium term (see diagram below): This is clearly rallying towards the 1.07-1.08 area as the bottom is defined and established. For the short-term the picture is a little more complex (as we have RBNZ on the wires this week), the double bottom set-up in play will imply a minimum flow towards 1.065x. Don't forget to keep the likes and comments rolling in!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.02.11On the NZ side a superb round of employment data for Q419 which is overshooting market expectations clashing with global USD strengthening via commodity currency softening. For the 2020 diagram the outlook is crystal clear although the immediate picture is slightly more blurred with Chinese growth concerns spilling over to weigh on NZD. The RBNZ are on hold this week and will remain the case unless the outlook globally materially softens. China easing will allow risk assets to bounce, I don't see much more downside for NZDUSD from here and am actively looking to add positions to all macro portfolios this week. A hawkish RBNZ via unemployment and (no mention of coronavirus growth risks) will be supportive NZD. Technically the picture is looking overstretched to the downside, strong support is located at 0.634x while to the topside resistance is at 0.665x and 0.679x above. Strong support 0.634x <=> Soft Support 0.642x <=> Mid Point 0.650x <=> Soft Resistance 0.665x <=> Strong Resistance 0.679x. Don't forget to keep the likes and comments coming!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | NZD Spot Commentary 2020.01.31Here we have another fast flow for NZD over the coming sessions; AUD and NZD have both under pressure and making fresh lows. The “Giant Panda” has turned off its lights for a while to contain the spread of the coronavirus meaning the underlying PBoC bid supporting both AUD and to a lot lesser extent NZD remains absent. For the 2020 Macro Map in NZD: An early heads up, if we cannot break above the highs in this flow it will be sending us loud messages that we need to reassess the 2020 macro map at the end of Q1 as the retrace will have done too much damage. For the Flows: BUY NZDUSD 0.645x | TP 0.655x | SL 0.642x While AUDUSD is also at a critical 0.667x level and losing it (not expected) will unlock a major panic move towards 0.62xx. NZDUSD also approaching the key 0.646x and will trigger some profit taking from shorts and a bounce back towards 0.655x. Similarly to AUD, a break below 0.645x in NZD will open a panic move towards 0.633x hence the tight stops. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | NZD Spot Commentary 2020.01.20AUD and NZD flawlessly trading in sync with our range trade flow picture (see diagram): Eyes this week are on AUD employment prints, another drop in the unemployment rate will be enough to take RBA cuts off the table. I’m against expectations and looking them to follow RBNZ in Dec with the surprise hold. I still think we will find offers at the 0.692x in AUDUSD and this will carry NZD as collateral so 0.666x NZDUSD makes sense to play the same map for now. Remember we can comfortably lean on the long-term flows we mapped out for 2020, the direction is on our side. You know the drill: A clean and simple leg to track: BUY 0.660x => TP 0.666x with Invalidation and reassessment required below 0.655x. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming ... Good luck!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | NZD Price Dissection [Live]As we approach the 0.660x handle it is time to take profits from our shorts, well done those following from the entire process from the previous diagrams: All of this is taking place while inside the Macro swing: The radius of our flows has been secure in a wide territory. This could also be considered a base formation in a sense of the word. The major play is to the topside for 1H20 as Dollar devaluation is the underlying theme. A lack of space prevented us from reaching all the way to the topside in the macro target, so we had to briefly pause for a few zig-zag range trading formations. This is a superb live example of trading fast flows and forcing short-term moves. Good luck all those positioning in NZDUSD for the coming weeks, I hope these short-term charts have proven helpful.
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.01.17The fruits of my forecasts stretching over the short-term range, will accompany you down this thorny path of range trading, but we cannot avoid consolidation, because only painful chop can help resolve ranges. The dynamic constraints of the flows are clearly defined jurisdictions on both sides (see diagram): The tendency towards advancing further is making the retrace possible. At least for the near-term - full compensation for the flows will only be effective from the attack on 0.666/45 and what is more urgent than an attack on resistance?! An examination of buyers becoming overstretched at the highs thus gives a plus to Sellers. On the other hand, importantly, we know - our macro map for NZD is approaching the mid-game. How should we evaluate that? Is the difficulty only due to the fact that patience is hard to protect? or do other macro factors threaten us? Best of luck those adding to short-term offers inside a long-term macro flow...a mouthful. This is very advanced trading and would recommend using the flows to centralise and manoeuvre around towards the flank. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and comments rolling, so far a superb forecast of event-risk flows so far and traded live here in both AUD and NZD.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.01.16Mixed data from NZ overnight with strong housing and weak retail sales. The soft sales was mostly expected so only minor spikes were available in NZD on the event risk flow as posted in the diagram here: As widely expected, NZDUSD presenting another very good opportunity to short 0.664/6x and initially target by covering 0.660x. In AUDUSD same drill as before, tracking 0.692x for a similar move back towards 0.685x lows in the range. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | NZD Retail Sales FlowWith retail sales out in NZ tonight it is a good time for a short-term flow update. It to me seems a poor choice of moment to advance for bulls, extending the lows after a retest of the 0.6645/60 sell zone with a weak print tonight makes more sense to me. This would be in accordance with the needs of the flow. The 2020 macro map takes on the retrace leg, but another sweep of the lows would be a more reliable guardian. Here recommending longs into the 0.6645/60 resistance as a good opportunity to sell the headline and mount a last attack for the penetration of the lows. We will update the chart should we see the highs visited today. Good luck all those trading Retail sales, after the distortion around last months print it is highly likely in my books that we see a soft undershoot tonight. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc.
Long
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.01.10AUD data continues to improve and with retail sales overshooting AUDUSD is approaching the key 0.690x. It is hard to argue for a cut this Feb with domestic data improving, though it will take a break above 0.692x for me to get excited. I am bullish on AUDUSD medium term but expect some of those who initiated longs yesterday and positioned for weaker US payrolls have a good opportunity to unwind. NZDUSD will move as collateral and therefore look for the same flows in NZDUSD. For the event today markets are tracking for 160k on the headline. Today I am against consensus and my models have forecast a slight undershoot to 123k via Holiday seasonal effects. This will trigger a soft knee-jerk reaction in USD sell-off before profit taking kills the day. Only a heavy miss (below 75K) short-circuits the expected flow as will initiate an impulsive move to the downside in USD. We are starting to get very complex trading here with flows inside flows inside macro flows. Here would be worth thinking about the 2020 macro map to follow up with: The lust to expand the retrace is still there, despite all countermeasures from bulls. The correct move, however, is a short-term news flow play with targets 0.664x and 0.666x before profit taking (and short-term selling opportunities are up for grabs). So we may say; massive undershoots would be good, because we will have another possible ticket in the USD devaluation leg with NZDUSD trading eventually towards 0.690x. The risks to trading this leg come from overshoots on the payroll side with NFP (unexpected). Good luck all trading NZDUSD into the flows today.
Long
by ridethepig