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ridethepig | NZD Macro UpdatesHere we go with a round of Macro chart updates, the decline is starting to run out of steam as we enter into support. The initial bounce does not nullify the decline we have seen over the past four years, however it wields influence with 2021 and beyond. The parallel channel we will use for reference technically to define clearly the jurisdictions on both sides. To the topside, resistance can be found at 0.661x which will attract selling interest, while support is located underneath at mid-term 0.58xx. As momentum stalls across the board, it is screaming exhaustion to the downside. Like with physics we will allow the downtrend to exhaust before continuing to create a new MT/LT picture. AUDNZD finding a floor... To put simply, I am expecting a test of 0.58xx over the coming months which will act as a buying interest for the next decade! Highly recommend jumping into the comments with your NZD long-term maps, we can open the macro conversation and create a thread for all to benefit from. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.03.19Divergence in AUD and NZD beginning to widen as large hands dump AUD and pile into NZD. Cases are relatively low in NZ which will keep the RBNZ from going negative, watch-out for AUDNZD breaking parity in the coming sessions. The analysis of the starting position shows us the slingshot is ready to conduct a flanking manoeuvre, but also a quick-witted seller: the exhaustion leg we are tracking can save it from the worst. As long as the 0.49xx lows are in focus, the slingshot can be administered. In this case, the breakdown is coming from Chinese inflows taking a walk, who have been suddenly threatened like a deer in the headlights; (1) AUDCNH (2) NZDCNH After the flash crash the board has been cleared and the lows are naked for sellers to deliver the fatal blow. Instead of a breakdown, we should look to fade these lows. What it means is we have all the ingredients in the pot for a huge rally once we clear the coronavirus flows; so what we need to track market-wise are two 🔑 components: 1️⃣ French & Italian numbers declining 2️⃣ Focus shifting from fatalities to recoveries Remember in terms of markets we are trading perception. This expectation of panic looks set to continue till month-end, I am no expert in virology but from talking to some Chief Exec’s at hospitals on the ground there is a sense that virologists have created something sensational here which is opening the door to overreaction and hype from governments and unlocking (btw in all the wrong places) doors they never thought were possible on both the fiscal and monetary side. Stress in funding markets continues, as long as this remains the case then USD will stay in strong demand until the storm passes, as capital rushes to the doors. AUDUSD - Macro Updates via Coronavirus Impact SHCOMP - Chinese Equities Whatever may be the case, this game is beautiful, as beautiful as it gets. There is a battle of major flows underway, USD will remain bid till we can clear these dark clouds of corona-panic. Or, to put more simply, returning to the starting position creates an easier flow TA-wise that will give buyers an opportunity to grab tempo. As usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and etc coming....What interesting times we are in!
Short
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | NZDCNH Market Commentary 2020.03.01NZD is moving as collateral with AUD, those following the previous AUDCNH idea will know this is no less imaginative. New Zealand is exposed to a short-circuit in Chinese supply chains leaving it vulnerable to a slowdown in China via coronavirus. On the monetary side, RBNZ has been notably quiet around the impact from the virus. The CB will not be able to hide from the slowdown for too long, exports are already being hit, tourism, commodities and consumer confidence! As is the case with AUDCNH: The range we are trading in NZDCNH is clearly defined; 4.7 - 4.05 and this trend has held since 2015. The flip is being broken and a breakdown looks imminent. Given the risk environment, I recommend trading towards support at the 4.05 lows and selling rallies going forward. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes coming on the CNH crosses ... an entire dissection of CNH and the impact from PBOC intervention. Jump into the comments with your charts and views!
Short
by ridethepig
RBA Monetary Policy Meeting. AUDNZD bear domination?!RBA is less likely to provide further support to the Aussie dollar and expect any AUD weakness to be mostly channeled through a lower AUD/NZD, where the monetary policy differential may be more evident (given a neutral RBNZ). Market participants in this cross-currency seem to price in ahead of the meeting where we can see a strong bearish pressure for now in the price action for this cross. We have a key level 1.03753 which acted as support in the past and this level has good weigh as it lines up with weekly pivot point s3 and descending channel lower trendline (acts as supports). Break lower through this key level with good bearish momentum should signal us price can dive more near the major support 1.03131 or even further depending on the outlook reaction after the meeting. If RBA ends up neutral or surprise hike bearish may lose its momentum strength.
Short
by Anatta0
1
NZDUSD: RBNZ On The WayThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely give the Kiwi a boost of volatility in the upcoming Asia session with its latest statement on monetary policy. Expectations are for no change this month as recent economic data has been net positive, and as they wait to see the full extent of damage the COVID-19 is set to do to the world economy. The scenario to watch out for is a more dovish-than-expected RBNZ and reversal pattern back to the downtrend after the event for the bearish market. For the bullish bias, any rhetoric lowering the odds of a potential rate cut this year will likely draw in buying support for the Kiwi, at least for the short-term as recent sessions have shown global positive risk sentiment as the main driver for the financial market. One news which might have earlier sparked some volatility on comdolls could be "WHO's Tedros, the first vaccine for COVID-19 (coronavirus) could be ready in 18 months".
by Anatta0
ridethepig | AUDNZD Breaking Higher !!A superb time to update the AUDNZD chart after a fresh technical breakup yesterday. The Q4 prints from antipodeans is very positive and actually triggering a slightly hawkish tilt by the RBA. Despite the brutal domestic story in Australia with bushfires and coronavirus spillovers, Scott Morrison has done the heavy lifting via housing policies. There is a lot of AUD shorts to be unwound by leveraged retailers creating a massive upside in AUDNZD with a supportive price driver. The hawkish shift by RBA is subtle and not visible by the naked eye, there is not a single mention of coronavirus spillover effects on growth and if anything emphasis on just how temporary the impacts are. For the technical picture things are a lot clearer in the medium term (see diagram below): This is clearly rallying towards the 1.07-1.08 area as the bottom is defined and established. For the short-term the picture is a little more complex (as we have RBNZ on the wires this week), the double bottom set-up in play will imply a minimum flow towards 1.065x. Don't forget to keep the likes and comments rolling in!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.02.11On the NZ side a superb round of employment data for Q419 which is overshooting market expectations clashing with global USD strengthening via commodity currency softening. For the 2020 diagram the outlook is crystal clear although the immediate picture is slightly more blurred with Chinese growth concerns spilling over to weigh on NZD. The RBNZ are on hold this week and will remain the case unless the outlook globally materially softens. China easing will allow risk assets to bounce, I don't see much more downside for NZDUSD from here and am actively looking to add positions to all macro portfolios this week. A hawkish RBNZ via unemployment and (no mention of coronavirus growth risks) will be supportive NZD. Technically the picture is looking overstretched to the downside, strong support is located at 0.634x while to the topside resistance is at 0.665x and 0.679x above. Strong support 0.634x <=> Soft Support 0.642x <=> Mid Point 0.650x <=> Soft Resistance 0.665x <=> Strong Resistance 0.679x. Don't forget to keep the likes and comments coming!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | NZD Spot Commentary 2020.01.31Here we have another fast flow for NZD over the coming sessions; AUD and NZD have both under pressure and making fresh lows. The “Giant Panda” has turned off its lights for a while to contain the spread of the coronavirus meaning the underlying PBoC bid supporting both AUD and to a lot lesser extent NZD remains absent. For the 2020 Macro Map in NZD: An early heads up, if we cannot break above the highs in this flow it will be sending us loud messages that we need to reassess the 2020 macro map at the end of Q1 as the retrace will have done too much damage. For the Flows: BUY NZDUSD 0.645x | TP 0.655x | SL 0.642x While AUDUSD is also at a critical 0.667x level and losing it (not expected) will unlock a major panic move towards 0.62xx. NZDUSD also approaching the key 0.646x and will trigger some profit taking from shorts and a bounce back towards 0.655x. Similarly to AUD, a break below 0.645x in NZD will open a panic move towards 0.633x hence the tight stops. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | NZD Spot Commentary 2020.01.20AUD and NZD flawlessly trading in sync with our range trade flow picture (see diagram): Eyes this week are on AUD employment prints, another drop in the unemployment rate will be enough to take RBA cuts off the table. I’m against expectations and looking them to follow RBNZ in Dec with the surprise hold. I still think we will find offers at the 0.692x in AUDUSD and this will carry NZD as collateral so 0.666x NZDUSD makes sense to play the same map for now. Remember we can comfortably lean on the long-term flows we mapped out for 2020, the direction is on our side. You know the drill: A clean and simple leg to track: BUY 0.660x => TP 0.666x with Invalidation and reassessment required below 0.655x. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming ... Good luck!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | NZD Price Dissection [Live]As we approach the 0.660x handle it is time to take profits from our shorts, well done those following from the entire process from the previous diagrams: All of this is taking place while inside the Macro swing: The radius of our flows has been secure in a wide territory. This could also be considered a base formation in a sense of the word. The major play is to the topside for 1H20 as Dollar devaluation is the underlying theme. A lack of space prevented us from reaching all the way to the topside in the macro target, so we had to briefly pause for a few zig-zag range trading formations. This is a superb live example of trading fast flows and forcing short-term moves. Good luck all those positioning in NZDUSD for the coming weeks, I hope these short-term charts have proven helpful.
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.01.17The fruits of my forecasts stretching over the short-term range, will accompany you down this thorny path of range trading, but we cannot avoid consolidation, because only painful chop can help resolve ranges. The dynamic constraints of the flows are clearly defined jurisdictions on both sides (see diagram): The tendency towards advancing further is making the retrace possible. At least for the near-term - full compensation for the flows will only be effective from the attack on 0.666/45 and what is more urgent than an attack on resistance?! An examination of buyers becoming overstretched at the highs thus gives a plus to Sellers. On the other hand, importantly, we know - our macro map for NZD is approaching the mid-game. How should we evaluate that? Is the difficulty only due to the fact that patience is hard to protect? or do other macro factors threaten us? Best of luck those adding to short-term offers inside a long-term macro flow...a mouthful. This is very advanced trading and would recommend using the flows to centralise and manoeuvre around towards the flank. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and comments rolling, so far a superb forecast of event-risk flows so far and traded live here in both AUD and NZD.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.01.16Mixed data from NZ overnight with strong housing and weak retail sales. The soft sales was mostly expected so only minor spikes were available in NZD on the event risk flow as posted in the diagram here: As widely expected, NZDUSD presenting another very good opportunity to short 0.664/6x and initially target by covering 0.660x. In AUDUSD same drill as before, tracking 0.692x for a similar move back towards 0.685x lows in the range. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | NZD Retail Sales FlowWith retail sales out in NZ tonight it is a good time for a short-term flow update. It to me seems a poor choice of moment to advance for bulls, extending the lows after a retest of the 0.6645/60 sell zone with a weak print tonight makes more sense to me. This would be in accordance with the needs of the flow. The 2020 macro map takes on the retrace leg, but another sweep of the lows would be a more reliable guardian. Here recommending longs into the 0.6645/60 resistance as a good opportunity to sell the headline and mount a last attack for the penetration of the lows. We will update the chart should we see the highs visited today. Good luck all those trading Retail sales, after the distortion around last months print it is highly likely in my books that we see a soft undershoot tonight. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc.
Long
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.01.10AUD data continues to improve and with retail sales overshooting AUDUSD is approaching the key 0.690x. It is hard to argue for a cut this Feb with domestic data improving, though it will take a break above 0.692x for me to get excited. I am bullish on AUDUSD medium term but expect some of those who initiated longs yesterday and positioned for weaker US payrolls have a good opportunity to unwind. NZDUSD will move as collateral and therefore look for the same flows in NZDUSD. For the event today markets are tracking for 160k on the headline. Today I am against consensus and my models have forecast a slight undershoot to 123k via Holiday seasonal effects. This will trigger a soft knee-jerk reaction in USD sell-off before profit taking kills the day. Only a heavy miss (below 75K) short-circuits the expected flow as will initiate an impulsive move to the downside in USD. We are starting to get very complex trading here with flows inside flows inside macro flows. Here would be worth thinking about the 2020 macro map to follow up with: The lust to expand the retrace is still there, despite all countermeasures from bulls. The correct move, however, is a short-term news flow play with targets 0.664x and 0.666x before profit taking (and short-term selling opportunities are up for grabs). So we may say; massive undershoots would be good, because we will have another possible ticket in the USD devaluation leg with NZDUSD trading eventually towards 0.690x. The risks to trading this leg come from overshoots on the payroll side with NFP (unexpected). Good luck all trading NZDUSD into the flows today.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | AUDNZD Finding A Floor?Here AUDNZD would be worth thinking about increasing long exposure in order to follow up the coming RBNZ intervention / AUD outperformance leg. However, this plan to attack the highs is currently impossible, because AUD markets are still pricing a move from RBA in Feb. The correct manoeuvre, despite all counters will come from the AUD side: NZD is well blockaded in the 2020 map: AUD on the other hand has catching up to do: I often consider the lows as the stem game for my new philosophy in the swing. As can be viewed here, bears are constantly trying to force its opponent to surrender the lows. This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea of what is happening is cooking what I call a surprise strategy. The move will come from AUD data overshooting and taking RBA off Feb off the table, this will close the cycle in monetary policy and mark the official transition into the next chapter of economics. We are trading the second leg in the swing: GL all those in AUDNZD, thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling in. Feel free to post your charts and ideas in the comments.
Long
by ridethepig
NZD/USD Outrageously OverBought NZD's newfound strength is artificial for the most part. Let's analyze: New Zealand's GDP report showed to be better than expected, but let's put that into perspective. In Q2, their GDP was revised down and you want to convince me that this 0.7% quarter growth is significant. The yearly GDP growth is still on a convincing downtrend. Many Banks still have the RBNZ down as giving a rate cut at the start of the year. Inflation is not where they want it to be. Yes, the trade war is making progress which is a natural provider of currency strength to the NZD. However, this is not enough substance to justify the strength of the current bull run. The ridiculousness is showcased in the RSI(14) which is showing 2-year highs. Expecting a sharp decline at the start of the trading week. Disclaimer: I am not your financial advisor.
Short
by TogamiTrader
2
ridethepig | Looking at AUDNZD from 40,000ftOn the AUD side, RBA crystal clear about conditions needed for further easing and unlikely in the near-term. Unemployment overshooting may be the start of a round of good data for AUD which will keep the RBA on hold meaning markets will need to price out all of those betting on a RBA Feb rate cut. On the NZD side, RBNZ slightly hawkish surprise in the last meeting and see a lot of NZD shorts left that that need unwinding. Although into year-end NZD also spiking higher but rather than from good data it was with a positional squeeze into 0.66xx before running out of steam. With that in mind I see both AUD and NZD as bullish vs USD but AUD has more room to outperform if data holds: A “ Royal Flush ” for us and the Commodity Currencies. As widely mentioned yesterday, stronger AUD employment data sending AUDUSD flying towards the 0.69xx handle: I am looking to close longs at 0.695x which is still the same level in play from the larger swing into year-end: For those holding since October when we loaded the breakup we will have to wait till 2020 to clear final targets: For the AUD macro map: For the NZD macro map: As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc! Feel free to jump into the conversations in the comments with your views/charts. If we get enough interest we will have a round of Fixed Income chart updates coming for AU and NZ.
Long
by ridethepig
5
Buying AUDNZD Aggressively !!A timely update to the previous AUDNZD weekly chart and after completing the initial selloff we are set for a major leg to the topside. Before we dig into the Fundamental and Technical side I recommend for those following to start by reviewing the previous charts to understand how and why we are trading the lows: On the AUD side, markets are pricing an RBA move in Q120 with 50bps cut 60% priced in. Should see some unwinding for those outguessing a surprise like we did with RBNZ. Australian surpluses is providing a mattress to AUD as the historically low yield pick-up is allows deficits to be financed. Perhaps what is most interesting of all and highlights the underlying shift towards the USD devaluation / reflationary theme comes from real money managers who have started to take profits on their AUD shorts after RBA delivered in June & July are once again reaching extremes and ready to unwind again. On the NZD side, NZD is not expected to outperform AUD however the housing market is showing signs of strength as collateral from AUD. Markets have reduce further the over pricing of RBNZ cuts, which is what has supported NZD in the short-medium term. For the fiscal side, we had highlights going overnight to NZ announcing a big round of fiscal spending. Markets have since gone overboard selling AUDNZD. In any case, here is the NZDUSD map for 2020: For the technicals I am tracking an impulsive swing to the highs after markets completed plumbing the 1.03xx lows via NZ fiscal flows (a mouthful). Those with a background in waves will know we have market the lows in a multi year 5 wave sequence which we traded live here: ….and can lean on the AUD macro directional side: Lastly for those following NZDCAD and AUDCAD flows are sitting comfortably in profits and can let the rest run for our final targets: Best of luck all those trading the lows and buying dips. Please keep your support coming with likes and jump into the conversation comments with your views and charts as usual!
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2019.12.18Here we go for an active NY session ahead of an important set of macro numbers for NZ this evening. I am tracking one further leg to the downside in Dollar to end the year at 96: This is a very powerful USD devaluation flow we are trading here and markets have been short NZD for most of the year; with these two things in mind I am expecting a squeeze into 0.66xx handle again with good or bad data this evening. We should also have a helping hand from AUD positive employment data to put the icing on the cake. For those wanting more clarity on the macro forces in play here are the long-term DXY and NZD charts: As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc! Feel free to jump into the conversations in the comments with your views/charts.
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | NZD 2020 Macro MapA good time to update the roadmap for NZDUSD as we enter into the final chapter of 2019. The market has been heavily short NZDUSD all year, pricing in further cuts from RBNZ, the anticipation of a dovish CB was short-circuited and we are starting to see a reduction in their short positions. This was evident in my previous post: From a strictly macro perspective, NZD is not expected to outperform however the housing market is showing signs of strength as collateral from AUD. I see room for markets to reduce further the over pricing of RBNZ cuts, which will support NZD in the short-medium term. On the USD side, as widely mentioned here and in the Telegram channel, USD weakness is reaching out theatres and will be even more evident in high-beta currencies like NZD. Those following will also know I am long NZD crosses, NZDCAD continues to make a lot of sense with CAD longs being unwound after the dovish BoC. Important to note 

key risks to this trade come from unexpected RBNZ intervention. Good luck all those planning FX trades into 2020. The environment is going to become increasingly difficult as investors position around US election risks, my 2020 FX outlook reports along with other strategy research in the coming weeks. 2020 is setting up for fireworks on the FX board with expectations and valuations starting to diverge and with late cycle concerns creeping back in through the back door to put the cherry on top. For those interested can send a PM on Tradingview.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | AUDNZD Market Commentary 2019.11.29Here we are tracking further downside in the cross as NZD strength continues across the board before AUD takes the wheel in 2020. Among the commodity currencies, NZD stands out the most into year-end and those following the macro updates in Telegram and charts will know I have also been sitting long NZDCAD, with a dovish BoC and RBNZ 'hawkish' surprise there continues to be further upside: For AUDNZD flows, for the most part of 2019 the market has been heavily short NZD, and the NZD short cleansing pullback is likely to continue if regional growth and trade improves. Watching risk sentiment closely, with AUDJPY and NZDJPY coming to life intraday and with the power to drive the commodity currencies on other crosses. On the AUD side, RBA crystal clear about conditions needed for further easing and unlikely in the near-term. On the NZD side, RBNZ slightly hawkish surprise in the last meeting and see a lot of NZD shorts left that that need unwinding. With that in mind I see both AUD and NZD as bullish vs USD: As previously mentioned, confidence for those betting on the topside has increased dramatically after cracking 1.0620, watch closely for follow-throughs here into 2020 after the NZD outperformance theme fades away. Best of luck those already in positions and those looking to build swing positions into 2020. ...Please remember to keep the support coming with likes and comments!
by ridethepig