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Smart Money Positioned to LONG RBOB - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy Long (RBOB) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in RBif we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small specs max short of last 3 years - bullish. OI Analysis: Multi week down move has seen OI increase. When OI increases, we need to ask "who is causing the OI increase?". In this case, OI is increasing as Commercials add to long positioning, which is bullish. ADX: Paunch forming (but not confirmed until ADX rollover). This is a significant "end of trend" indication. Front Month Premium - bullish. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:RBV2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
RBOB Gasoline - COT & Fundamental Backed Long Trade SetupDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is not a recommendation to take a trade. This is for purely educational purposes only. RBOB (Gasoline) is "Set Up" for Longs. This does not mean I am longing this blindly right now. The tools that I am using to formulate this trade idea are not timing tools. We use technical entry techniques to time our entry. Lets get to it. Commercials are extremely long this market. The last time they were this long was in 2010, which just so happened to preclude a massive bull move in RBOB. When Commercials are at a significant extreme, we want to pay attention. Small speculators are very short. In fact, they are more short than they have been in the last 3 years. The public is generally wrong, and we want to fade whatever they are doing. Advisor sentiment is very bearish, which is actually bullish. If the advisors are telling all their clients to Sell gasoline, who is left to sell? For weeks, OI has been decreasing while Commercials have added to their long positioning. If the public and large speculators are not interested in this market, while the commercials are getting heavily long, this is bullish and indicates this market is ready for a bullish move. Cyclically, we get a bit of a mixed bag. The decennial pattern is supportive of some upside soon, and the annual cycle is supportive of a major low in September.
NYMEX:RBU2024
by Tradius_Trades
Fundamentally Setup Markets For This WeekI have identified the following markets are "set-up" for moves of some significance. This video goes into the fundamental reasons for these trade ideas. NOTE: I am not looking to go long/short these markets immediately. I will wait for a change in trend on the Daily to get involved with these markets. The tools used to identify these trade setups are not timing tools. The tools do give us an idea of how market participants with significant size and intelligence (commercials) are positioning themselves. The tools also give us an idea of sentiment, valuation, seasonality, and also an idea of what the (usually wrong) public/small traders are doing. LONGS: HEATING OIL (HO) GASOLINE (RBOB) MEXICAN PESO (6M) SOYBEANS (ZS) COTTON (CT) SUGAR (SB) SHORTS: EURO CURRENY (6E) JAPANESE YEN (6J) SWISS FRANC (6S) GOLD (GC) 30 YEAR TREASURIES (ZB) Good Luck & Good Trading.
ICEUS:SBV2024
by Tradius_Trades