Inter-commodity Spread (Dec20 +RB -CL)Looks like a good opportunity is coming up on this one. Fading the Dec20 RB(buy) CL(sell) Combo IC spread by selling into strength seems reasonable.
Rbob
EIA Data Shows Cuts in Both Crude & Gasoline InventoriesHeadlines:
- EIA Data Shows Cuts in Both Crude & Gasoline Inventories
- Gasoline Futures Return to 0.85 Handle as Prices Fall -7%
- US Indexes Fall Along with Energy Sector Down -4%
Gasoline - good mid. term investmentWith the fall of quarantine, road traffic is back and demand is rising accordingly, and gasoline prices are recovering.
Less manipulations than the Oil market, much safer trade instrument and good ROI. #Gasoline #RBOB
Gasoline futures stable while WTI swings $UGA $USOPrompt-month RBOB futures have been very quiet relative to the antics in oil. 75 cents appears to be very important.
Gasoline Bounces of 0.625 handle Seeing it Push Above 0.70 Level- Gasoline Bounces of 0.6250 handle
- OPEC+ Meetings scheduled for Thursday which could see volatility role into Gasoline markets
- Gasoline dropped to the beginning of the year due to falling demand within the US region
Gasoline Surges Above 0.60 Level Posting +12% Gain in AsiaHeadlines
• Gasoline Surges Above 0.60 Level Posting +12% Gain in Asia
• Petrobras to Cut Production & Reduce Capital Expenditures in a Bid to Off-Set Virus Impacts
• US Futures Retreat in Asia Breaking Weeks Uptrend
Gasoline Continues Down -31% on Monday Close as Demand FallsHeadlines
• Further Oil & Gas Companies Announce Expenditure Cuts with TOTAL Set to Cut into the Year
• Gasoline Continues Its Plummet Down -31% on Monday Close
• UK Closes Non-Essential Business as Countries Go into Quarantine to Slow Spreads
COT Report Show Cut in Long Gasoline Positions for Managed MoneyHeadlines
• COT Report Shows Cut in Long Gasoline Positions for Managed Money
• RBOB Gasoline Prices Continue Plunge Down Below 0.55 Handle
• US Futures Down as Congress Fails to Agree to Further Aid
Gasoline Down + Oil Extends Losses in Asia With Crude DownHeadlines:
• Crude Extends its Losses in Asia With NYMEX Crude Down -3.16% + RBOB Gasoline Down -3.29%
• UN Secretary General Calls for Immediate Ceasefire After 33 Turkish Soldiers Killed in Idlib
• Asian Equities Feel Full Force of Sell Pressure with Nikkei225 Down -4.60%
RBOB Gasoline Falls as Global Fear Resonates Throughout MarketHeadlines:
• Light Crude Futures Fall Below $50pb as Global Fear Resonates Throughout Markets
• CDC Warns That They Could Expect Further Cases and to be Ready
• US Equities Continue Low Streak with Markets Down Another -3%
RBOB Gasoline Futures (Jan 2020) - Rectangle in formationNYMEX:RBF2020
Clear rectangle on the January Futures of the RBOB Gasoline.
A breakout could lead to an interesting trend to ride.
When trading commodities and futures contracts you should always take into account the specifications of each contract to calculate exactly how many contracts to buy or sell short on the basis of your risk management and position sizing.
www.cmegroup.com
HOF2020-RBF2020, Buy HeatingOil Jan20 & Sell RBOB Gasoline Jan20HOF2020-RBF2020
Our trade on this spread between Heating Oil Futures F20 and RBOB Gasoline Futures F20 has started.
In 87% of the times this spread is profitable in the seasonal window.
Our job is to find the best time both statistically and technically.
Waiting for the breakout on USOILWe expect the breakout on USOIL, remember the condition:
Gasoline is the leading indicator from Crude Oil
Short on RBOBShorting RBOB ( Gasoline ) at 2.15.
TECHNICAL
This is largely based on a technical situation:
Two (2) fib levels confluence
88.8% ( MAY ’18 -> DEC ‘18 )
1.27% ( MAR ’19 -> APR ‘19 )
One ( 1 ) notable Fib “Time” Level ( 1.382% FEB ’16 -> MAY ’18 ( Bullish Retrenchment ) )
Previous Structure
Mid ’18, Aug ’17 & Jun ‘15
RSI Divergence
RSI ( Daily Chart ) topped out in MAR; a further push up would be x2 divergence
100 Day MA
I haven’t fully quantified this part albeit it will likely end up ~20% above the 100 day moving average; it has certainly exceeded that ( NOV -> DEC ’18 ) albeit 20% was the top in MAY ‘18
Round #
It’s a round #
FUNDAMENTAL
There are a lot of fundamental factors affecting why this might not be a good trade. The US is looking to end waivers on Iran, Venezuela ( it’s happening ), Saudi Aramco is looking to IPO soon, etc.
On the other hand, Trump has been pretty quiet on oil prices ( BTW – I know this trade is RBOB ) & seasonality ( I haven’t done my own research yet ) suggests it’s coming to a consolidation stage ( link ).
IN SHORT
Stop Loss: ( 2.2587 )
TP: ( 0.618 from 24 DEC ‘18 however far it pushes into it )
Gasoline forecast until end of year (RBOB)Looks like the price will remain in this channel until the end of the year, look out for confirmation of the long movement, then short when you get confirmation of the movement down from the top.
Hit like if you agree.
Follow for more forecasts like this.
Gasoline Entering holiday weekend and hurricane after effects, we should see a few weeks of significant draw downs in inventory.
A good one could be setting upThis spread is now on the radar but waiting to see thing settle down a bit in Texas. So will be ready to act when refiners come back on line or if we push to a crazy extreme
Energy spread going down New January contracts spread look to go down. Setup is not so clear, so I prefer to wait outside.
Hitting suppoort around 43, sideways & upCrude is hitting some support as it come close to the (blue) up-sloping trendline at around 43.
Additionally the 200 day MA is right around that area.
We are oversold in terms of Bollinger, RSI and Stochastik, with the Stochastik generating a buy signal
Should the market break, targets on the downside at 39, 35 and contract low at 26ish....
Option idea:
IMHO selling put spreads. I would avoid purchasing any upside premium of any kind
