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Reaccumulation

XBTUSD 1D chart (7/15/2019)Good morning, traders. I've noticed a lot of "the sky is falling" coming out of CT after this weekend, and calls for $7500 and lower. In reality, the only thing that's really happened, though, is that price followed last week's triangle outline. Until it breaks down, this is the pattern that traders should be paying attention to at this time. It is possible that this wave down is a 5 subwave C wave (recently just printed subwave 3, so we should get a small corrective subwave 4 if that's the case), but currently it looks like an ABC just like the previous two wave sets. Things we know, which are important: 1) volume continues to drop suggesting this is reaccumulation, not distribution (in other words, we should still be on the first wave set from the $3100 level), 2) price is currently printing a descending wedge after having printed descending, and then ascending, wedges, 3) daily Stoch RSI is bottomed out and RSI is nearing a break of its resistance (suggesting a turn back upward), and 4) 12H RSI is printing bullish divergence with bottomed out Stoch RSI. I believe we will see a strong move back up, above $11000, within the next 24 hours. This will bring price back above the daily pivot which has been supporting the bounces for the past three weeks. The 4H RSI is nearing a break through its resistance and Stoch RSI is nearing a break above oversold. We can see price printing a Spring just below the green local TR. We can also see that price has multiple alternating support/resistance touches of the current descending wedge, with a touch of resistance (and, likely, break through) coming next. The 1H RSI is also nearing a break of its resistance, however Stoch RSI is in overbought. Remember, the 4H TF is dominant over the 1H TF so it's not a big deal. I will also be attaching a daily Kraken analysis below which outlines the big picture. Why Kraken? Because it is the exchange that has had the large wicks that other exchanges haven't had. And when it comes to EW, the big picture should generally align across all exchanges. So, we can use those outlier wicks to help us likely understand where we may be in the large wave count. This also explains why we are currently printing a pennant (symmetrical triangle), as they usually occur in the 4th or B waves. That would make price currently in the 4th wave with the 5th yet to come. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
19
XBTUSD 1H chart (7/9/2019)Good morning, traders. Price hit the $12800 target last night and proceeded to pull back. I locked in profit last night, along with many of our Discord members, and then entered long again this morning with the top of the channel as the target. However, we could see price stop just short of that as it hits yesterday's larger ~$13800/$13900 target. This 1H Kraken chart shows price printing a descending broadening wedge (with a target of $13075-$13100, depending on when price breaks through wedge resistance) as it continues to consolidate around the R1 pivot. RSI has pushed through its resistance and Stoch RSI is printing a bullish cross in oversold as price uses the 21 EMA as support and the R1 pivot as resistance. The horizontal green line is the top of the 2018 TR which price has been consolidating around since the end of June. The orange lines denote the local reaccumulation TR and we can see price consolidating around that TR's resistance as well. I have outlined my expected EW count if price completed its correction (simple ABC zig zag) with the $9712 swing low on July 2nd. Price has three alternating touches on the ascending channel. A touch at the channel resistance now would confirm the channel. Price falling through channel support would likely negate my EW count. Just a reminder, price can extend higher than my plotted wave iii target level. We have to remember that traders will get excited if/when price moves above the recent ~$14K swing high and go long, so price could pop up further than expected. Of course, if price completes wave iii just below that swing high, then the pullback for wave iv could set the stage for an overextended wave v. Either way, its imperative that novice traders understand this so they don't take the wave targets as absolute. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
6
BTCUSD 1H chart (7/8/2019)Good morning, traders. My larger TF EW and Wyckoff labeling are still valid and doing quite well. That doesn't guarantee that they will continue to do so, however, as EW is notoriously tricky during corrective moves, but for now I don't see any reason to change them. It appears that Bitcoin's price recently completed a symmetrical triangle which it broke out of this morning. As always, we have two targets based on that pattern: 1) $12800 based on the height of the triangle and 2) $13900 based on the height of the flagpole leading up to that triangle/pennant. I do believe that price will reach the upper target as it aligns perfectly with the daily R1 pivot and, of course, it is the general target level of the large descending wedge that begins at ~$14000. Demand volume on the 1H and 4H TFs looks really good with the recent move up which gives more support to the idea that price will be headed higher. Currently, we can expect a small retracement (as we are seeing) as price cools off from that pop before heading higher. Additionally, in terms of VPVR at the 4H TF and higher, the LVN is located between $12225 and $13000 which means price shouldn't have a difficult time making its way to the lower target at least. Don't forget, price has not spent a lot of time above $13000, so there's little in the way of resistance in the grand scheme of things. The 4H Stoch RSI is just now breaching overbought, so it still has a lot of room to move up, while the 4H RSI is bullish at 60 (it, too, having a lot of room to run). The 1H Stoch RSI and RSI are cooling off as price retraces a bit, readying for the next push up. Weekly R1 pivot is at $12975 _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
6
BTCUSD 4H chart (7/2/2019)Good morning, traders. My chart is a bit full today, but I wanted to make sure you see the confluence that I will be speaking about below. With the continued pressure on $10K last night, I was stopped out of my long in slight profit and am short to $9500. I am expecting price to bounce at the $9300-$9500 level. We can see that price is printing an almost perfect ABC correction and we appear to be in the 5th wave (ending diagonal) of Wave C. As I have been mentioning, the 4H S1 pivot sits at $9400 (yes, I am exiting a bit earlier than the expected completion of the move. Liquidity is everything when entering/exiting) and finds confluence with the daily pitchfork support, ascending dotted line support, 1.272 extension of Wave A, and the top of the demand zone. The only thing that hasn't happened is the 4H RSI hitting oversold. At this point, we may not even get it with this expected move down, however we will have a flat RSI (just above oversold) if we don't and that is usually indicative of an impending reversal. We can see that demand is growing down here while supply, overall, is decreasing. The flag (descending wedge) printing has a potential target of ~$17000, based on the height of the flagpole, depending on when price moves above wedge resistance. We can also derive a target of ~$13540 based on the height of the descending wedge. If we get a bounce from the mid-$9Ks as expected and price prints an ABC rather than 1-5, then that lower target should be the expected cap on upward movement. In that case, we would expect to see price print a double combo (WXY) or triple combo (WXYXZ) correction. If that happens, then we would likely see the CME gap in the $8000s filled. However, remember, it does not have to fill right now even if it's going to fill eventually. Previously, it's taken up to more than a month for a gap to fill on a few separate occasions, so it's not unheard of that it doesn't fill before heading up higher. My expectation at this time, based on the appearance of clean ABC movement, is that we are completing reaccumulation after decline with a spring (once you make this chart yours via the directions below, zoom into the 1H to see the labeling of the TR). This means that I am expecting price to reach toward $17000 rather than stopping at $13540. But understand, that does not mean that I am long without thought now. This is nothing more than my current view of what's going on. As price moves, new information may come in that makes me lean the other way, in which case I would close out my long and go short. But that is unknown at this time. In either case, the move should be up toward that ~$13500 level at the least. Never forget, a good trader is fluid, not rigid, and able to trade with new information. Be sure to join me every week day morning at the YouTube address below for a video look at the market where I go more in-depth and often look at other cryptos and/or markets as well. Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Chris_Inks
12
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/28/2019)Good morning, traders. The update I posted yesterday to my TV chart was spot on and price bounced out of the red box. I first went long around $10776. On our paid Discord side, traders were able to trade along with me and get an explanation of what I was seeing and what it meant as I bought and sold this move up. Unlike other Discord servers out there, ours is an immersion experience for new and seasoned traders. This allowed many of them to enter much closer to the reversal as we noted a possible double bottom forming around $10300 on the very short TF chart which also tested the 1H pivot as support. Ultimately, we have seen an almost $2000 price increase in less than 24 hours. Now I know that most traders out there are swearing this is the larger correction and that price will head further down. However, I am not of that mind just yet. I warned that we would see strong moves like this while price is parabolic. It doesn't matter whether it's some "whale" selling $100M of Bitcoin on Coinbase or something else, the underlying cause for the strong movement is psychological. With price pushing hard and fast upward, traders of all wallet sizes tend to get scared and pick opportunities to lock in profits along the way. When the initial sell is large enough, it causes retail traders to sell out of fear and this cascades, especially when the order books are thinly bid due to the large, strong upward movement of price. Simply put, there just isn't enough of a base right under price when the selling starts to support it. While that doesn't mean that I am ignoring the possibility of a larger movement down, it does mean that I am looking at more bullish price structures and targets until they no longer play out. This means that I am buying the dips rather than shorting the rallies at this time. If it does head further down then the mid-$9000s, as I have been mentioning, would be the likely bounce zone. The ~$2000 increase over yesterday's low, coupled with 5x leverage on Kraken and making a total of 4 trades in that time, has resulted in a 100% increase in that trading account. This is without shorting, only longing, the dips. I am known to constantly explain to novice traders that they do not have to utilize 50X or 100X leverage to make money. They just have to trade intelligently. And I continue to prove that to our Discord members in real time thereby giving them the confidence to let go of their preconceived notions about trading so that they can create real, lasting wealth for themselves. So where are we at now? In terms of the larger picture, price is currently attempting to push, and remain, above the 1H R1 pivot/2018 TR resistance around $11,800 (the purple horizontal line). The long red horizontal lines are the weekly pivots with the one below price being the pivot and the one above it being the R1 pivot. A daily close back above this ~$11800 level would be bullish. While the weekly candle doesn't look too hot at the moment, with 3 days left until the candle closes there's more than enough time to change it. We can see that price exited the large descending wedge and is currently back above the 1H 21 EMA. Notice that the target of the wedge is just above that weekly R1 pivot. Additionally, we can see a possible double bottom on this 1H chart as well. While price has closed above the swing high between the bottoms, I want to see price bounce off that swing high resistance and use it as support, which is what it appears price is attempting to do at this time. If it does, then the target of the double bottom is also near the weekly R1 pivot as shown. This could also be seen as an ascending triangle, however the target remains the same so feel free to use whichever pattern you are more comfortable with. Both of these targets are above the 1H R2 pivot as seen as well. That kind of movement would be considered bullish. Although demand volume is growing, without a strong show of demand just yet, I am going to be wary around ~$12500 for now. Finally, I wouldn't be surprised to see price build a base in this area, similar to what was done at the $8000 level. So far we have had the large initial drop that creates the TR. As such, if price doesn't immediately take out the daily swing high from a couple of days ago, just under $14000, I would pay attention to price within the larger TF TR. Does it find support at the TR's EQ after testing that swing high? As we can see, that is currently level that price is consolidating just below. If so, then I would be extremely careful about attempting to short as price will more likely than not continue higher as I have already been expecting. As always, I will be discussing this and more in this morning's YouTube video (link is below). Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
3
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/26/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin has continued its climb, stopping just shy of $13,000 overnight before retracing to just under $12,200. Some of the crazy volatility hit my SL and stopped me out in profit last night but I longed once more and remain long at this time. Currently, it appears that price is printing a flag which should have a target of $14564. This is also just about the same target as the height of the ascending blue channel. The red line is the weekly resistance dating back to the beginning of 2018, which lines up almost perfectly as well. If price hits this level, then it completes its journey toward the target that I have been telling traders to watch for since it broke above the 2018 descending wedge in December. I don't know about anyone else that has had this target since then. I'm sure someone, somewhere did, but I haven't come across them yet. That being said, the question then becomes is this the end of Wave 3 or Wave 5? If you've been following me, then you know that Wave 3 would make for an easier count. Often, in Elliott Wave analysis, the easier count is the correct one. So, for now, that's what I'm looking at. Price can obviously continue higher from here as there is a lot of room above that red line. In that case, we would have to take another look at the count if it does. At this time, I am looking to exit in that green box somewhere between ~$14100 and ~$14600. I will be looking for confirmation before shorting. That ascending black line in the green box is the top of the ascending channel that began in the $4000s and touching it would give us 4 alternating touches of the channel. The target, if price were to exit the top of the channel today or tomorrow, based on the height of that large channel would be just around the ATH in the mid-$19000s. The 4H Stoch RSI seems just about tapped out, but the 1H Stoch RSI has a lot of room to run, and as we can see price has been consolidating right at/under the R2 pivot. A break up would have us looking for price to target the R3 pivot which happens to be at the low end of my green box. As always, I will be discussing this and more in this morning's YouTube video (link is below). The "more" often includes an analysis of ETHUSD, LTCUSD, XRPUSD, Gold, USD, and/or equities, as well as my thoughts on current news. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
4
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/25/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin's price continued to grind up over night to a high of $11488 where it was rejected by the 15 minute R2 pivot. As a result, we've seen a sharp, quick drop of around $470 this morning which was also quickly bought up. These liquidity grabs help price continue its journey higher. I have continued to warn about this volatility at these levels after such a strong, continued push from the December 2018 low. Don't forget, the ~$11780 level is the 2018 TR resistance and just below that is the 4H R1 pivot at $11750, so traders should be mindful of possible temporary rejection at that point before continued upward movement. However, the target based on the height of the TR that price left overnight is ~$12366. This is based on Kraken, though, and the other exchanges often don't drop as far on the shakeouts since Kraken seems to suffer from liquidity issues on those shakeouts causing price to reach deeper for liquidity. So, if we take a look at Coinbase, Bitstamp, Bitmex, and Bitfinex, then we see that the TR is not as large and the target is actually $200-$270 lower at ~$12095-$12166. This is just a bit higher than my P&F target area between $11775 and $12075 (which was drawn on a Coinbase chart) suggesting that we may see some consolidation around this range. This doesn't mean that price won't reach $12366 on Kraken before consolidation, but traders must be mindful of the same pattern targets on other exchanges as they may differ as a result of the increased volatility at these levels. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw price hit the 2018 TR resistance and fall back to $11000/$11200 before pushing up once more and, finally, through it but that is just one of the many possibilities at this time. If price ultimately fails to get through that $11,800 level, then that could mark the top of the run. I believe we have higher to go, as I've stated numerous times, but that doesn't mean I haphazardly just long without thoughts about risk management. Traders absolutely must protect their capital above all else. As always, I will be discussing this and more in this morning's YouTube video (link is below). Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 4H chart (6/24/2019)Good morning, traders. We saw pretty much everything I said we would see this weekend -- Price eased through $10,000 just like it did at $6,000, it topped out around $11,200-$11,300 depending on which exchange you were watching (I mentioned a target of at least around $11,084 based on the pennant's flagpole height), and we saw strong volatility as price dropped $1200 and then $850, both suddenly. So far, the $10,000 level has held as support as I have been saying was likely once we got above it. Since the initial move above $11,000, and subsequent drop to $10,000, on Saturday, price has continued to print a TR. While there still seems to be a good bit of supply around $11,200, we can also see that slightly less effort was expended on the second drop which produced significantly less result. In other words, although there was a strong market desire to sell at that level, the demand that's showing up at $10,000-$10,7000 level is quite strong as well and buying up all that selling. Also important to note is that the volume on the first drop was only slightly more than the large demand spike about 14 hours prior and resulted in a very small candle body thereby suggesting that we still have higher to go. We can see price printing higher lows toward that upper resistance at this time. The 4H RSI shows us that back-to-back hidden bullish divergences printed. This is to be expected, as I have mentioned before, because of the large, sudden drop seen on Saturday. We can see that Stoch RSI is still oversold and RSI is now below overbought, though remains strongly bullish and is rising once more. We haven't really seen any Springs print during these reaccumulations on the way up, so we may not see one again this time around. However, that isn't a guarantee and we could still see price dip below the bottom of the TR. At this time, as mentioned above, price is printing higher lows so my immediate thought is that we will not see a Spring but, instead, will continue higher. Price has continued to move within the ascending blue channel that it has been printing since the mid-$8000s but because we don't have four alternating touches to the channel's support and resistance, it is not confirmed yet. Price has remained above the 21 EMA so far and is currently above the most recent 4H pivot. Notice that the top of the 2018 TR is at the 4H R1 pivot. The safest entry would be a break above the recent swing high of $11,286.80 (on Kraken). At this time, I am still expecting a move up to the lower-$14000s before a deeper correction, most likely back down to $11,500-$12,000. This would take price to the 2018 descending wedge target. Furthermore, such a move has the increased likelihood to see price reach the ATH area before completing a larger pullback and then proceed toward $22,500 at least. However, because of the FOMO expected once price leaves the 2018 TR resistance at $11,780, we could see price reach higher targets at each point before retracing a bit. So, as I continue to warn, traders should be utilizing strict, intelligent risk management while also suppressing their urge to FOMO. If price happens to drop, then I would be looking for a bounce around $9300/$9500. As always, I will be discussing this and more in this morning's YouTube video (link is below). Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 1D chart (6/17/2019)Good morning, traders. As I warned on Friday, "...what appears to be a wedge, many times, is nothing more than price grinding toward channel resistance and when it pops through it usually makes quite the move." After this weekend, price now sits ~$1000 higher while printing a large ~$1350 engulfing candle. Is it a bullish engulfing candle? I don't believe it fits the definition since there wasn't a downtrend, rather just a 1 period drop followed by that candle. That said, it's still bullish and it makes more sense for traders to look for higher highs than lower highs at this time. In terms of the VPVR, we can see that price is clearly above the highest volume nodes which generally means that it's easier for price to move up higher than it is to drop lower. The relevant weekly/monthly pivots are labeled in purple, and they are probably the most useful targets of all right now. Those of you that have been following me for a while know that I've had issues with potential Elliott Wave counts. I've provided a few different possible counts, but have always lamented that I cannot drop a line from the bottom of wave 2 to the possible wave 4 bottom. There has also been the confusion amongst EW traders about whether we are in the 3rd or 5th wave (although it seems that most have delegated price to the 5th wave at this time). But what if this is the count? What if wave 3 doesn't begin until the break through $4000? If so, then all of the sudden the count becomes much easier with the consolidation under $5000 being subwave 2 of wave 3 and the hard drop in May being subwave 4 of wave 3. That would most likely have us in subwave 5 of wave 3 right now. Using the large ascending channel as a guide for wave 4, based on wave 2, then that would give us a wave 3 target of the ascending channel's EQ just above the daily R2 pivot and the 2018 TR's resistance, most likely near the monthly R1 pivot which would occur by the end of the month. We would then see price retrace for about 2-3 weeks during July as it prints wave 4, followed by a large move up for wave 5. Where would wave 5 target? Based on the channel, it seems most likely that we would see it target the top of the ascending channel around the R2 pivot/4.618 extension ($22,000-$24300). Again, for those of you who have been following me, these targets aren't surprising. It is the same thing I have been mentioning for months now, except we have a lot more data to support such a move. This would also mean that $10,000-$12,000 likely becomes the floor for wave 2 before the next push up. For those of you still interested in the parabola, this count gives us the first base at subwave 2 of wave 3, second base at subwave 4 of wave 3, and third base at wave 4. Remember, what I've said about parabolic movement off the 3rd base -- it generally provides 100%+ in movement which means we should expect the blow off top around ~$20,000 or more. Finally, don't forget, the expectation is for retail to finally start FOMOing in as price moves through $10,000, and especially when it moves through the top of the 2018 TR just under $12,000. I am going to take a look at LTCUSD, XRPUSD, and ETHUSD during this morning's video, as well as a deeper look at what I am discussing here, so be sure to check in at the YouTube link below. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
10
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/12/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to trade sideways while printing higher lows toward the $8100 resistance on the lower TFs. It doesn't amaze me anymore that novice traders think highly bearish in spite of this development. Many of y'all are still in disbelief at this 6 month bull market. Sadly, what they fail to understand is that even a correction toward $6000 is not bearish. It's a pullback in a bull market. It's one of the most bullish things that can happen as it gives traders the opportunity to ride the next wave up. The biggest thing that novice traders have to overcome is their emotion and they can start by choosing to use non-emotional words. The higher lows on the lower TFs don't guarantee that price will go up, but they should at least give traders pause when being so bearish. The higher TFs are showing higher lows and higher highs, however price has been trading sideways for a month now while printing a higher high and currently a possible higher low. The daily shows price consolidating against resistance. A couple of days ago price left the descending channel it had been in for two weeks prior. It then retested channel resistance as support yesterday and since then has been printing higher lows and highs. I have two support lines noted on the 1H RSI and 1H Stoch RSI is consolidating just under overbought. The higher lows toward resistance has me thinking that we should see a good pop upward through that resistance. As a reminder, the red line is the monthly pivot, the dashed purple line is the 2018 TR EQ, and the horizontal black line around $8400 is the top of the TR that price has been printing for about a month now. Price is also currently back above the 1H pivot. There are a couple of targets to watch at this time based on channels and TRs. The red target is based on the large descending channel and targets that fresh supply in the blue zone from the recent swing high. The blue target is based on the blue TR and targets the 2018 TR EQ. The purple target is one that traders should also keep an eye on. There is the possibility that price has printed a triple bottom as noted in purple. If price can close above that swing high at $8115, then we could see price targeting ~$8800 and that gets it pretty close to the red channel target at ~$8970. If price falls further, then I will continue watching the same support levels that I have been mentioning for a while now including the noted demand zones on this chart. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 4H chart (5/13/2019)Good morning traders. If you haven't been in Discord with us then you missed my Bitcoin updates on Friday and Saturday as well as my live stream where I updated my thoughts for members and price followed along as I outlined that it would. It appears that we are now completing reaccumulation with eyes a few thousand dollars higher. In terms of the parabola price has been printing, this recent reaccumulation range should be Base 4. We can see RSI continuing to adhere to the support line created at Base 3 and showing likely bearish divergence upcoming as price nears the swing high but RSI is much lower than its own recent high. Stoch RSI is also just leaving oversold with a lot of room to run. I believe Base 3 was the large April reaccumulation period and is where we usually see price double from pretty quickly. As such, we should expect price to target the ~$9400 level. Because it would be a blow-off top completing the 3rd wave, we could see price end within a few hundred dollars in either direction of that number (the green box is the target area). My expectation is to see price drop back down to the $6000s to complete wave 4 before seeing wave 5 target the large 2018 descending wedge target around $14500-$15000. Be sure to watch this morning's video update if you'd like to see the analog to 2015. People will mistakenly think that price needs to drop back down to $4000 (or lower): 1) because they are scared they missed the best entries (they did), and 2) they think the blow-off top is going to have price retracing most of this move up. I do not believe this is the case. The one thing that most of cryptotwitter and tradingview personalities don't seem to understand is accumulation and distribution. The former took place over the course of the past year. This means that retail traders don't have the means to curtail professional buying, which has been the driver of price throughout 2019 so far. Retail remains on the sidelines in disbelief as price continues its upward trek. The failure of price to continue down below $5000 should be the nail in the coffin that creates greater FOMO leading to the wave 5 target right in monthly supply. That being said, the expected wave 3 blow-off top and subsequent wave 4 consolidation should create a large reaccumulation pattern. Again, most of CT and TV have no understanding of accumulation/distribution which means they have an even worse understanding of reaccumulation. Yes, the reaccumulation can be divided into a hyperbolic distribution phase at the top of wave 3 and an accumulation phase at wave 4, but make no mistake it is a complete reaccumulation phase on the larger TF. Why is this important? Because it puts cyclical price action into perspective. If you understand the larger TF, then there is little-to-know reason to believe that price will return to $4000 or lower. Could I be wrong? Sure I could, but to trade devil's advocate against a strong bullish trend is most likely going to lose you money. Traders argued that they should trade the bearish trend during the correction but can't seem to get out of their own way now, and refuse to trade the bullish trend we've witnessed for five straight months now. Whether you believe I'm right or wrong, if you are trading without strict adherence to intelligent risk management you are going to lose everything you make and then some. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
9
BTCUSD 1H/4H charts (4/26/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday's price action has everybody instantly bearish... again. It also shows why I am always discussing the importance of risk management and intelligent stop losses. No matter how good you may feel the charts look at the time, absolutely anything can happen. In this case, we've been discussing the possibilities of having topped out or having one more small leg up into $6000. Yesterday I, again, discussed the bearish divergence that was printing on the daily. I have warned traders countless times to wait for confirmation before entering a position and not to allow their boredom or FOMO to direct their trading. I could afford to continue looking at higher targets because I was already long and continue to remain long at this time. CME Bitcoin April Futures expire in a couple of hours, and we usually expect to see some volatility leading up to that, so be careful if trading at this time. As far as price goes, as long as we continue to close above ~$4700, price has done nothing more than confirmed the TR that began on April 3rd. Even if it were to drop below a bit, it could be nothing more than a Spring, so traders should be paying attention to volume and price action. If price closes above $5200 (we are talking about the Bitstamp chart), then things start to get interesting. A close above $5320 sets up a possible move higher. So far, we have seen a rebound of between 50% and 61.8% as I told our Discord members I expected last night, and price appears to be flagging while finding support on the recent resistance. This suggests more upside in the near term. I also mentioned to our Discord members that there is a gap around $5400 which I would expect to see price fill in. Here's the kicker that nobody is talking about: the 4H candle that encompassed yesterday's drop of just over $500 was almost exactly the same size as the 4H candle drop on April 3rd, yet the volume was slightly less than half, and it was also less than the volume of the $250 drop on April 11th. Everything else aside, this comparison generally tells us that there wasn't the conviction to sell this time around that there has been. If there isn't market conviction to sell, then price generally heads back up. This doesn't guarantee that we will see price return to the recent high, but we shouldn't be surprised if it does. Daily RSI fell through support, which is a potentially bearish sign. However, the 4H RSI bounced off oversold and the 1H RSI dipped well into oversold, just recently pushing above it. The 1H MACD printed a bullish cross earlier this morning and, currently, we have hidden bullish divergence printing on the 1D RSI and on the 4H MACD. The 4H Stoch RSI is in oversold and the 1H Stoch RSI has just recently moved into overbought. BTCUSD Shorts are very overbought and Longs are just the opposite. It's the potential spark that could send price into a short squeeze, especially with expected CME volatility. I added the red descending channel on the 1H chart. In the near term, a close above the channel's EQ should have traders looking for price to target the channel's resistance. A break above the channel's resistance would give us a target of ~$6000, but of course the HVN is a few hundred dollars higher. Another way to look at the red channel is as a possible descending broadening wedge, which I've drawn in purple on the 4H chart. The target of ~$6000 remains the same. It would be bullish to see price moving above the HVNs on the various TFs. RSI breaking through its resistance on the 1H and 4H TFs would confirm some upward momentum. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
5
XBTUSD 4H/1H charts (4/25/2019)Good morning, traders. Imagine thinking price hit the high and shorting already. Or worse yet, remaining short and not buying the dip yesterday. Of course this is only a sad predicament if you believe price will head higher before heading lower. I continue to remain long at this time. Nothing has changed, in the larger picture, to warn me that I need to exit my long yet. The 4H chart shows price doing what it was expected to do as part of the re-accumulation scenario. RSI continues to be supported by the ascending line and Stoch RSI has crossed bullishly but is still well in oversold territory. Price is currently testing the top of the resistance level, which marks the top of the TR as shown, while printing a flag. If we take the flagpole as the length from the ST Area to the SOS, then a breakout through the flag's resistance would set up a target at purple ascending channel's resistance around $6300. The 1H chart shows a potential triple double bottom in the local TR with a target of ~$5615. A close above $5485 would confirm the pattern. This triple bottom is printing after the recent triple top and marks the target of that triple top pattern. Once price clears the descending channel's/flag's resistance, that opens up the much higher target mentioned earlier. With shorts continuing to rise, we can assume that a break above the horizontal red line will begin a short squeeze that could propel price toward the upper target. That $5690 level is the swing high of the supply created in November after price broke down through $6000, and there is little-to-no market interest until around $6300 which aligns with the flag's target. The vertical red line denotes tomorrow's CME April Bitcoin Futures expiry, with the blue vertical line denoting May's, and the green vertical line denoting June's. As mentioned yesterday, bearish divergence is printing on the daily chart. This would seem to suggest that price should be headed down, however wave structure, patterns, the large ascending channel, and the re-accumulation zone seem to suggest the final pop up before a retracement. It does not guarantee it though. In either case, if you are already in a trade or are thinking about entering one, you should have two plans: the first is your exit if price takes the path you think it will and the second is your exit if price takes the path you don't think it will. If you do not have both plans in place, then you shouldn't be in a trade because you will most likely trade emotionally, especially if price moves against you, and trading emotionally loses money. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
XBTUSD 4H chart (4/24/2019)Good morning, traders. I see a lot of traders are very disturbed by this small move down and, as a result, reversing their calls this morning. Yet it's exactly what I said was likely to happen. With the break out of the 4H TR being the SOS, the odds were high to return to the TR and test it as support to complete the BUEC/LPS before printing another, higher, SOS. I have mentioned numerous times that traders should not be paying attention to the short TFs right now. You should be zooming out to the 4H and larger TFs if you want to see what's really going on. There's too much noise in this area, for most traders, to remain zoomed in. You can also likely identify the local 30 minute/1H TR as reaccumulation with a spring which usually appears weak (hence the spring). I'll be discussing this in this morning's video update. I had some requests to chart on BitMex rather than the usual Bitstamp, so make sure you are aware that Mex is the chart this time around. The 4H chart shows price's return to the TR's resistance to test it as support. We can see the 21 EMA continuing to provide support, as well as the HVN. The 4H RSI bounced off its own ascending support and Stoch RSI just dipped into oversold. Yes, there is a possible tweezer top pattern printing on the daily, but we still have more than 1/3 of the daily candle remaining before close so it's much too early to give it any significance. With the move down overnight, I'd watch the shorter TFs to see if price is gearing up to retrace that move. The 1H and lower TFs are suggesting such a retracement at this time with the 2H Stoch RSI recently bouncing off the bottom of oversold and nearing a bullish cross. Price breaking back above the top of the 4H TR's resistance area/R1 pivot at $5474 would be a bullish signal, whereas dropping below the 4H pivot at $5210 would require traders to take another look at price action. Bitfinex Shorts are printing bearish divergence on the 4H TF while the Longs are well into oversold on that same TF. A large retracement to the downside should see Shorts piling on and Longs dropping off, so this current situation seems to be suggesting that we will see price rising rather than dropping in the near term. As such, my upper targets that I have been discussing for a while now remain in play. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
Will Bitcoin show us a sign of strength?A Wyckoff study. Looks like an up-sloping re-accumulation Trading Range. Price moved back on to the midline. BTC may show a sign of strength towards 5800 historic S/R zone and test the area. If you look at RSI indicator you can see upward break of the channel. That feels like supporting the spring action idea. Sign of strength bar might follow. PS: Not an investment advice. Always take calculated risks. And put a stop loss, protect your capital. We've already lost a lot of good traders. :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by parababoli
BTCUSD 4H chart (4/17/2019)Good morning, traders. I believe we are a lot more bullish than most of retail thinks at this moment. We see the dips being aggressively bought up with price still pushing higher. Everyone continues to compare the current market to 2014/15, which only results in feeding their bearish bias. As I've mentioned before, nobody is comparing price action and volume from that time period to now though. The current structure looks like what we consider to be the strongest of the reaccumulation TRs -- a reaccumulation with an uprise. As we can see, price has been printing higher highs and higher lows throughout this TR. In other words, demand continues to show up much more aggressively than supply. We can note increasing volume, since the volume lows on April 13th, as price continues to rise. Even this morning's shallow $50 shakeout caught bids at the 4H pivot. By the way, as I have mentioned numerous times before, pushing up through the bottom of the pivot is generally considered bullish and we usually look for the R1 pivot as the next immediate target. That would also put price at the TR's AR, which is within the supply zone noted. Depending on how you define this TR (from swing high to swing low, BC to Shakeout, ascending triangle, etc.) there are essentially four targets. The two purple lines and the R3 and R4 pivots. The R3 pivot gives us a 261% extension off wave 1 which makes it a strong candidate of where price is headed at this time. However, I will potentially readjust this target depending on volume and price action leading up to it. As long as RSI bounces off of, or otherwise remains above, the red line then we should be looking for price to rise. Alternatively, if price happens to drop below its ascending red support, then I will be looking for a Spring at the S2 pivot/demand zone. If price is rejected at the R1 pivot then I will being watching for the move down to form the Spring as well. While 4H Stoch RSI is overbought there is still room to move up, and 1H Stoch RSI has a lot of room to run. RSI on both TFs is currently bullish with a lot of room remaining to the upside. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 15min/1D charts (4/12/2019)Good morning, traders. I said I would post a bearish case today and I will a bit later. I forgot that I have an AMA for our free and paid Discord members this morning. So, for the time being, here's a quick view of what I'm looking at now that we've had our initial move down. I suspect that Wave A has completed now and we are on Wave B. I am looking for this wave to target the green box which gives us a 61.8% retracement as well as the R1 pivot on the 15 minute chart. It is also the target based on the height of the descending channel which price recently exited. The three red lines give the likely Wave C target. Of those, it would seem that the middle one is the most likely as it aligns with the daily R3 pivot as well as the daily 21 EMA. It would also provide a spring for the current TR. Because this is wave 4, we should expect that the TR is re-accumulation. That being as it is, we could see price find support at the upper red line which would keep it above the ascending green channel's resistance and print an LPS rather than a Spring. It really depends on how much demand we have in the area. It is also possible that we see the candle body supported at that area and a wick down on the daily toward the middle red line for the aforementioned spring. For now, on the 15 minute chart, price is flagging and we may see it reach ~$5200 before correcting a bit, toward $5025-$5060, and then finishing its move up toward the green box. We can see price head higher than that green box with the daily R5 pivot providing a $5313 target. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks