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Reaccumulation

BTCUSD 4H chart (5/13/2019)Good morning traders. If you haven't been in Discord with us then you missed my Bitcoin updates on Friday and Saturday as well as my live stream where I updated my thoughts for members and price followed along as I outlined that it would. It appears that we are now completing reaccumulation with eyes a few thousand dollars higher. In terms of the parabola price has been printing, this recent reaccumulation range should be Base 4. We can see RSI continuing to adhere to the support line created at Base 3 and showing likely bearish divergence upcoming as price nears the swing high but RSI is much lower than its own recent high. Stoch RSI is also just leaving oversold with a lot of room to run. I believe Base 3 was the large April reaccumulation period and is where we usually see price double from pretty quickly. As such, we should expect price to target the ~$9400 level. Because it would be a blow-off top completing the 3rd wave, we could see price end within a few hundred dollars in either direction of that number (the green box is the target area). My expectation is to see price drop back down to the $6000s to complete wave 4 before seeing wave 5 target the large 2018 descending wedge target around $14500-$15000. Be sure to watch this morning's video update if you'd like to see the analog to 2015. People will mistakenly think that price needs to drop back down to $4000 (or lower): 1) because they are scared they missed the best entries (they did), and 2) they think the blow-off top is going to have price retracing most of this move up. I do not believe this is the case. The one thing that most of cryptotwitter and tradingview personalities don't seem to understand is accumulation and distribution. The former took place over the course of the past year. This means that retail traders don't have the means to curtail professional buying, which has been the driver of price throughout 2019 so far. Retail remains on the sidelines in disbelief as price continues its upward trek. The failure of price to continue down below $5000 should be the nail in the coffin that creates greater FOMO leading to the wave 5 target right in monthly supply. That being said, the expected wave 3 blow-off top and subsequent wave 4 consolidation should create a large reaccumulation pattern. Again, most of CT and TV have no understanding of accumulation/distribution which means they have an even worse understanding of reaccumulation. Yes, the reaccumulation can be divided into a hyperbolic distribution phase at the top of wave 3 and an accumulation phase at wave 4, but make no mistake it is a complete reaccumulation phase on the larger TF. Why is this important? Because it puts cyclical price action into perspective. If you understand the larger TF, then there is little-to-know reason to believe that price will return to $4000 or lower. Could I be wrong? Sure I could, but to trade devil's advocate against a strong bullish trend is most likely going to lose you money. Traders argued that they should trade the bearish trend during the correction but can't seem to get out of their own way now, and refuse to trade the bullish trend we've witnessed for five straight months now. Whether you believe I'm right or wrong, if you are trading without strict adherence to intelligent risk management you are going to lose everything you make and then some. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
9
BTCUSD 1H/4H charts (4/26/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday's price action has everybody instantly bearish... again. It also shows why I am always discussing the importance of risk management and intelligent stop losses. No matter how good you may feel the charts look at the time, absolutely anything can happen. In this case, we've been discussing the possibilities of having topped out or having one more small leg up into $6000. Yesterday I, again, discussed the bearish divergence that was printing on the daily. I have warned traders countless times to wait for confirmation before entering a position and not to allow their boredom or FOMO to direct their trading. I could afford to continue looking at higher targets because I was already long and continue to remain long at this time. CME Bitcoin April Futures expire in a couple of hours, and we usually expect to see some volatility leading up to that, so be careful if trading at this time. As far as price goes, as long as we continue to close above ~$4700, price has done nothing more than confirmed the TR that began on April 3rd. Even if it were to drop below a bit, it could be nothing more than a Spring, so traders should be paying attention to volume and price action. If price closes above $5200 (we are talking about the Bitstamp chart), then things start to get interesting. A close above $5320 sets up a possible move higher. So far, we have seen a rebound of between 50% and 61.8% as I told our Discord members I expected last night, and price appears to be flagging while finding support on the recent resistance. This suggests more upside in the near term. I also mentioned to our Discord members that there is a gap around $5400 which I would expect to see price fill in. Here's the kicker that nobody is talking about: the 4H candle that encompassed yesterday's drop of just over $500 was almost exactly the same size as the 4H candle drop on April 3rd, yet the volume was slightly less than half, and it was also less than the volume of the $250 drop on April 11th. Everything else aside, this comparison generally tells us that there wasn't the conviction to sell this time around that there has been. If there isn't market conviction to sell, then price generally heads back up. This doesn't guarantee that we will see price return to the recent high, but we shouldn't be surprised if it does. Daily RSI fell through support, which is a potentially bearish sign. However, the 4H RSI bounced off oversold and the 1H RSI dipped well into oversold, just recently pushing above it. The 1H MACD printed a bullish cross earlier this morning and, currently, we have hidden bullish divergence printing on the 1D RSI and on the 4H MACD. The 4H Stoch RSI is in oversold and the 1H Stoch RSI has just recently moved into overbought. BTCUSD Shorts are very overbought and Longs are just the opposite. It's the potential spark that could send price into a short squeeze, especially with expected CME volatility. I added the red descending channel on the 1H chart. In the near term, a close above the channel's EQ should have traders looking for price to target the channel's resistance. A break above the channel's resistance would give us a target of ~$6000, but of course the HVN is a few hundred dollars higher. Another way to look at the red channel is as a possible descending broadening wedge, which I've drawn in purple on the 4H chart. The target of ~$6000 remains the same. It would be bullish to see price moving above the HVNs on the various TFs. RSI breaking through its resistance on the 1H and 4H TFs would confirm some upward momentum. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
5
XBTUSD 4H/1H charts (4/25/2019)Good morning, traders. Imagine thinking price hit the high and shorting already. Or worse yet, remaining short and not buying the dip yesterday. Of course this is only a sad predicament if you believe price will head higher before heading lower. I continue to remain long at this time. Nothing has changed, in the larger picture, to warn me that I need to exit my long yet. The 4H chart shows price doing what it was expected to do as part of the re-accumulation scenario. RSI continues to be supported by the ascending line and Stoch RSI has crossed bullishly but is still well in oversold territory. Price is currently testing the top of the resistance level, which marks the top of the TR as shown, while printing a flag. If we take the flagpole as the length from the ST Area to the SOS, then a breakout through the flag's resistance would set up a target at purple ascending channel's resistance around $6300. The 1H chart shows a potential triple double bottom in the local TR with a target of ~$5615. A close above $5485 would confirm the pattern. This triple bottom is printing after the recent triple top and marks the target of that triple top pattern. Once price clears the descending channel's/flag's resistance, that opens up the much higher target mentioned earlier. With shorts continuing to rise, we can assume that a break above the horizontal red line will begin a short squeeze that could propel price toward the upper target. That $5690 level is the swing high of the supply created in November after price broke down through $6000, and there is little-to-no market interest until around $6300 which aligns with the flag's target. The vertical red line denotes tomorrow's CME April Bitcoin Futures expiry, with the blue vertical line denoting May's, and the green vertical line denoting June's. As mentioned yesterday, bearish divergence is printing on the daily chart. This would seem to suggest that price should be headed down, however wave structure, patterns, the large ascending channel, and the re-accumulation zone seem to suggest the final pop up before a retracement. It does not guarantee it though. In either case, if you are already in a trade or are thinking about entering one, you should have two plans: the first is your exit if price takes the path you think it will and the second is your exit if price takes the path you don't think it will. If you do not have both plans in place, then you shouldn't be in a trade because you will most likely trade emotionally, especially if price moves against you, and trading emotionally loses money. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
XBTUSD 4H chart (4/24/2019)Good morning, traders. I see a lot of traders are very disturbed by this small move down and, as a result, reversing their calls this morning. Yet it's exactly what I said was likely to happen. With the break out of the 4H TR being the SOS, the odds were high to return to the TR and test it as support to complete the BUEC/LPS before printing another, higher, SOS. I have mentioned numerous times that traders should not be paying attention to the short TFs right now. You should be zooming out to the 4H and larger TFs if you want to see what's really going on. There's too much noise in this area, for most traders, to remain zoomed in. You can also likely identify the local 30 minute/1H TR as reaccumulation with a spring which usually appears weak (hence the spring). I'll be discussing this in this morning's video update. I had some requests to chart on BitMex rather than the usual Bitstamp, so make sure you are aware that Mex is the chart this time around. The 4H chart shows price's return to the TR's resistance to test it as support. We can see the 21 EMA continuing to provide support, as well as the HVN. The 4H RSI bounced off its own ascending support and Stoch RSI just dipped into oversold. Yes, there is a possible tweezer top pattern printing on the daily, but we still have more than 1/3 of the daily candle remaining before close so it's much too early to give it any significance. With the move down overnight, I'd watch the shorter TFs to see if price is gearing up to retrace that move. The 1H and lower TFs are suggesting such a retracement at this time with the 2H Stoch RSI recently bouncing off the bottom of oversold and nearing a bullish cross. Price breaking back above the top of the 4H TR's resistance area/R1 pivot at $5474 would be a bullish signal, whereas dropping below the 4H pivot at $5210 would require traders to take another look at price action. Bitfinex Shorts are printing bearish divergence on the 4H TF while the Longs are well into oversold on that same TF. A large retracement to the downside should see Shorts piling on and Longs dropping off, so this current situation seems to be suggesting that we will see price rising rather than dropping in the near term. As such, my upper targets that I have been discussing for a while now remain in play. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
Will Bitcoin show us a sign of strength?A Wyckoff study. Looks like an up-sloping re-accumulation Trading Range. Price moved back on to the midline. BTC may show a sign of strength towards 5800 historic S/R zone and test the area. If you look at RSI indicator you can see upward break of the channel. That feels like supporting the spring action idea. Sign of strength bar might follow. PS: Not an investment advice. Always take calculated risks. And put a stop loss, protect your capital. We've already lost a lot of good traders. :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by parababoli
BTCUSD 4H chart (4/17/2019)Good morning, traders. I believe we are a lot more bullish than most of retail thinks at this moment. We see the dips being aggressively bought up with price still pushing higher. Everyone continues to compare the current market to 2014/15, which only results in feeding their bearish bias. As I've mentioned before, nobody is comparing price action and volume from that time period to now though. The current structure looks like what we consider to be the strongest of the reaccumulation TRs -- a reaccumulation with an uprise. As we can see, price has been printing higher highs and higher lows throughout this TR. In other words, demand continues to show up much more aggressively than supply. We can note increasing volume, since the volume lows on April 13th, as price continues to rise. Even this morning's shallow $50 shakeout caught bids at the 4H pivot. By the way, as I have mentioned numerous times before, pushing up through the bottom of the pivot is generally considered bullish and we usually look for the R1 pivot as the next immediate target. That would also put price at the TR's AR, which is within the supply zone noted. Depending on how you define this TR (from swing high to swing low, BC to Shakeout, ascending triangle, etc.) there are essentially four targets. The two purple lines and the R3 and R4 pivots. The R3 pivot gives us a 261% extension off wave 1 which makes it a strong candidate of where price is headed at this time. However, I will potentially readjust this target depending on volume and price action leading up to it. As long as RSI bounces off of, or otherwise remains above, the red line then we should be looking for price to rise. Alternatively, if price happens to drop below its ascending red support, then I will be looking for a Spring at the S2 pivot/demand zone. If price is rejected at the R1 pivot then I will being watching for the move down to form the Spring as well. While 4H Stoch RSI is overbought there is still room to move up, and 1H Stoch RSI has a lot of room to run. RSI on both TFs is currently bullish with a lot of room remaining to the upside. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 15min/1D charts (4/12/2019)Good morning, traders. I said I would post a bearish case today and I will a bit later. I forgot that I have an AMA for our free and paid Discord members this morning. So, for the time being, here's a quick view of what I'm looking at now that we've had our initial move down. I suspect that Wave A has completed now and we are on Wave B. I am looking for this wave to target the green box which gives us a 61.8% retracement as well as the R1 pivot on the 15 minute chart. It is also the target based on the height of the descending channel which price recently exited. The three red lines give the likely Wave C target. Of those, it would seem that the middle one is the most likely as it aligns with the daily R3 pivot as well as the daily 21 EMA. It would also provide a spring for the current TR. Because this is wave 4, we should expect that the TR is re-accumulation. That being as it is, we could see price find support at the upper red line which would keep it above the ascending green channel's resistance and print an LPS rather than a Spring. It really depends on how much demand we have in the area. It is also possible that we see the candle body supported at that area and a wick down on the daily toward the middle red line for the aforementioned spring. For now, on the 15 minute chart, price is flagging and we may see it reach ~$5200 before correcting a bit, toward $5025-$5060, and then finishing its move up toward the green box. We can see price head higher than that green box with the daily R5 pivot providing a $5313 target. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
JSE:FSR First Rand New Re-accumulation RangeFSR has a similar structure to RMH (See link below). FSR has also found support at the previous accumulation range and the Yearly Pivot Point. With the Rand (ZAR) strengthening (See link below) this also provides support. The high volume after the breakout can be seen as a Buying Climax (BC). The bottom of the range provides support on higher demand volume. We have now tested it again and the OBV is indicating the upward pressure. Will be looking for a test of the top of the trading range.
JSE:FSRLong
by SteynTrade
Bitcoin 15 Min/4H charts (10/24/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin broke out of the descending broadening wedge as expected and reached the pattern target. While this did take price above the descending dashed red resistance line, it wasn't able to hold and price has since bounced off the 15 minute R1 pivot while finding resistance at that dashed line once more. OBV on that short TF has moved up well since its low on 10/18, which is a positive sign. It shows demand by smart money. RSI is currently trending in a descending channel but appears to be working its way toward the channel's resistance. A breach of that resistance may indicate that price is about to move up. MACD remains bullishly above centerline and is curled up, indicating growing buyside strength. Gaps remain down to $6393. The 4H TF shows the local TR. Yesterday, I mentioned that the move down may either be a SOW or ST, depending on the volume during the subsequent rally. We can clearly see that volume increased to near the volume highs of this TR suggesting that the dip down was an ST. This increases the likelihood that the current TR is re-accumulation rather than distribution, so my bias at this time is for a push up through the top of the TR rather than a drop below it, ultimately. That does not mean that we cannot see a shakeout before doing so, and as such traders should remain vigilant if choosing to continue to trade this range. RSI is bullish at 57.5 and is currently testing some resistance. MACD has crossed bullishly over, both, the signal line and centerline as it continues to pull away. OBV has broken through the descending wedge's resistance as I suggested it was likely to do yesterday. My expectation at this time is to see price continue to push up toward the top of the blue local TR, and slightly above to around $6540. At that point, we will either see price continuing up toward the larger black TR resistance at $6586 or down to the bottom of the blue local TR for a shakeout before heading up and out. If it does head up to $6586, then odds are significantly increased that we will see it target the zone between the blue resistance line at $6829 and the previous 4H R2 pivot at $6900 as outlined in red. I continue to watch the 1D TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of this TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
Bitcoin's price hits resistanceGood morning, traders. Bitcoin's range continues to tighten as traders become restless. Don't allow this lack of price action push you into making an emotional decision. If you are actively trading at this time, then you should already have a plan in place. And if you have a plan, then you shouldn't allow emotions to change it. Currently, we can see price printing a possible descending wedge. I continue to watch the 15 minute gap at $6558 as it acts like a magnet and, with price so close, we should expect it to fill on the 15 minute TF before price makes any potentially definitive movements upward. As such, I have included the descending channel that price has been moving within as an idea of what I am watching. At this point, a breach of the channel's resistance is also a breach of the July triangle's resistance. The 15 minute TF just bounced off oversold for the second time this morning and the MACD and its histogram recently printed bullish divergence but this is likely to be short-lived due to the very short TF. The 30 minute TF has room for RSI to fall and the MACD's histogram was the only bullish divergence noted. However, when we zoom out to the 4H we can see price rejected at that triangle's resistance and its subsequent pullback into the TR. We can also see demand in the form of price action and volume. The volume expands when price increases and contracts when price decreases. MACD is turned down and nearing a bearish cross of the signal line, but it's not guaranteed to happen yet. If it does, I will be watching for hidden bullish divergence to print on the histogram. This would require price to remain above $6516.23 while the histogram prints a low below that seen on October 7th. The 1D shows the price contraction as today's candle remains confined within yesterday's highs and lows. At this point, even the body of today's candle is contained within the body of yesterday's candle. That doesn't mean it will stay that way, only that this currently describes price action up to this point. We can see the downward pressure from the triangle's resistance and the rising support from the ascending blue channel colliding. RSI remains bullish at 50.6 albeit flat since September 20th. MACD is near a bullish crossover of centerline but finds itself pulling back toward the signal line as a result of today's price action so far. OBV has continued to rise with price since October 3rd confirming the bullish movement for now. A drop through the proposed channel support means that we should be watching the ascending support line from the September triangle. Failure for this to hold then sets up the July triangle's support (ascending dashed line) as the watch area.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
Will Bitcoin's pop lead to a continuation upward?Good morning, traders. It is Columbus Day in the U.S. which means professional traders are enjoying a 3-day weekend so volume is lighter across all financial markets. This includes the crypto market. After another lackluster, sideways weekend, Bitcoin finally pushed up and through the resistance of the July triangle this morning. The question is, can price remain above the triangle now that it has done so? If so, then it would suggest that the TR (trading range) since October 3rd has been re-accumulation on the smaller TF (time frame) and this recent push up and out of it is an SOS (show of strength) off the LPS (last point of support). At this point, we would need to see a pennant/flag printing at the top of the TR where price is currently sitting. Failure to do so will suggest a likely drop below the bottom of the TR at $6510 and I will be looking for an initial bounce at $6450-$6466. Another leg up should find initial resistance at around $6740 which is the top of the next symmetrical triangle. Zooming out a bit to the 4H, we can see that price has continued printing a possible large ascending channel. I say "possible" because we have not seen four alternating touches of support and resistance to confirm that channel yet. However, as we can also see, the target based on the widest part of that triangle would be the top of the channel and that would give us our fourth touch which seems to suggest the likeliest price route. But until then, the ascending channel drawn as it is may or may not be true. RSI and MACD are bullish on most TFs and OBV continues to rise suggesting that smart money is still accumulating and, therefore, the price trend is legitimate. The daily pivot sits at $6700 which means a push up through the bottom of it, and subsequent close above, should indicate bullish momentum on that larger TF. The only real issue I have on all of this at the moment is that volume on the 1H is dropping even as price is making higher highs. We would need to see continued expansion of volume coinciding with the upward movement to alleviate this concern. That being said, the 4H TF volume on the current candle is closing in on the previous high candle's volume with another 2 hours remaining. Although price has continued playing out as it has, there still remains the possibility of a TS (terminal shakeout). That means that we could see price drop suddenly, below the corrective June low, at any time and pop back up just as quickly. Traders choosing to enter a position in this area, whether long or short, are increasing their risk exponentially, and much more than that if they are trading on margin. The latter combined with a TS will likely result in traders on both sides of the shakeout being liquidated. Remember, hard, sudden moves in this market tend to see the exchange Websites inaccessible and TPs (take profits) and SLs (stop losses) not firing.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
One more push before Bitcoin retraces? Good morning, traders. I'm trying a darker color scheme here, so let me know what you think. It is the beginning of the work week in the U.S. after the 3-day holiday weekend. Shorts jumped up over the weekend the short/long ratio currently stands at 1.1558. There are a couple of possible reasons for this: 1) big player could be baiting retail into shorting so they can initiate a short squeeze to get through the resistance at $7300-$7500, 2) an individual/entity could be playing contrarian and hoping that price dives, or 3) they are hedging their long spot position just in case price drops. As I am writing this, there was a push up to $7400, which was the equilibrium of the ascending channel, liquidating some shorts in the process. This moved price through the immediate resistance around $7330 which marked the top of the apparent ascending triangle. The target of that pattern would be the previous R3 pivot on the 6H TF at $7680. Remember, pattern targets are often not hit, so traders should never rely solely on them. It is possible that the ascending triangle was a pennant, in which case the target based on the flagpole of the pattern would be around $7900. This was the pattern I was watching earlier this weekend, but the resistance at $7330 may be suggesting the ascending triangle mentioned above. The $7340-$7350 level is showing good support for the moment with resistance from $7400-$7500, $7550, and $7580. On Bitmex, there was a sell wall of about $42 million recently at $7700, but it is now around $22.5 million. All of this means that my target of the $7600-$7900 range as the top of this leg up, that I've mentioned for a few weeks based off various patterns we've talked about, is still valid, so we will see how price action plays out. If we look at what's been going on in terms of Wyckoff, then we likely just completed another re-accumulation range. Bearish divergences are starting to show up on various TFs, however, so it becomes increasingly difficult to know if the top of this leg up is in now. If not, it does appear close at least. It seems to me that we have one more push into the zone mentioned above, but I can't guarantee anything. I have been talking about the CME Bitcoin futures gaps for a while now and Friday I mentioned the likelihood of it gapping up after the weekend which would require a retrace to fill it. At this point, price is currently filling the nearest daily gap but needs to close at $7380 or higher to do so. We then have gaps that require daily closes at/above $8415, $10,775, and $15005. Below current price, there are gaps that require a daily close below $7045, $6405, and $5885. Those lower gaps, especially the sub-$6000 one, are why I continue to mention that a shakeout is still a possibility. A sudden drop down into the $5000s would get price under that gap, and then the following daily close would fill it. There is also the possibility we could see a continued push up toward the February high around $11,800 first, and then a move down and shakeout. This latter scenario would be the most productive for a shakeout as the retail herd would be much more bullish so the sudden drop would get rid of the remaining weak hands. In this scenario, the previous low is most like a secondary test, as I've mentioned the possibility, rather than a spring, and the shakeout would be a spring. The herd is "hoping" for bullishness right now, but they aren't believing it so a shakeout right now would not be as convincing. The latter scenario has me expecting a retrace down to $6800-$7200, depending on how high price moves first, before continuing up to challenge the February high. If you've been following my live streams this year then you already know these are the scenarios I deem most likely and why. I still see little-to-no reason for any prolonged move under $5000 at this time. As always, risk management remains key. Trading without a plan will make sure you don't last long.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
11
Bitcoin tests December log line as supportGood morning, traders. It's Monday and time to get the trading week underway. As pointed out during Friday's daily live stream (where we always go into greater depth concerning price action), Bitcoin appears to be following April's pattern. The same can be said with the shorts/longs ratio. While there are no guarantees, it does give traders something to watch as price develops. In accordance with this pattern, we saw some liquidation of over-leveraged, under-capitalized shorts during the weekend as I continued to warn about last week. This has seen that ratio drop from a high of 1.0348 to 0.8785. If the pattern continues, then we should expect to see a further drop in the ratio before another move above 1:1. Remember, patterns do not follow exactly (it could move slower or faster), however, and it is only worth watching until it isn't anymore. What I mean is that the pattern does not have to complete, so it would be risky to base a trading strategy fully on the possible pattern. We have continued to see the same types of longs and shorts liquidated throughout the weekend and into this morning. Retail traders continue to gamble rather than accumulate wealth. The daily chart shows price moving up steadily from the test as support of the descending resistance line that began at the all time high. RSI says that we need to see price breach the August 8th high of $6628 or we may see bearish divergence develop. That being said, we are also seeing possible hidden bullish divergence building on the MACD between July 14th and today. A push upward in price should complete this divergence which would then likely see price targeting the $7200 area, at least, and maybe even the top of the descending broadening wedge that has been in play since February. On a smaller scale, we can see price tapping the top of the descending broadening wedge denoted by the dotted lines as it attempts to push out of the descending wedge denoted by the solid green lines. It is also important to note that price is finding resistance at the horizontal blue line which is the April 1st low. The 30 minute chart shows price working its way toward the top of the red descending broadening wedge while printing a possible ascending wedge. Currently, price is finding resistance at the pivot and black dashed horizontal line which we've had for a while now. We really need to see price breach $6630 to signal likely advancement into the $6800 box. As always, a push up through the bottom of the pivot is a bullish indicator, and we can see hidden bullish divergence printing on the MACD's negative histogram between August 13th at 12:30 a.m. and now. However, price needs to remain above that low of $6292.70 to validate it. Support is denoted with the boxes and pivots below price. As always, risk management is key and trading without confirmations is nothing more than gambling. Retail traders should understand whether they are gambling or trading and not lie to themselves about it if they are the former. The true "sweet spot" is placing your stop loss where price action invalidates your current position but not a dollar more. Trade safe, everyone.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
Are shorts about to provide fuel for Bitcoin appreciation?Good Friday morning, traders. The end of the week is here and Bitcoin appears to be setting up for a large move. Many traders were shaken out overnight by the drop in price and remain even more skittish now. As I mentioned during last night's live stream, yesterday's daily candle printed an inside bar which most often precedes a strong movement. While that movement can be downward, inside bars are most often associated with a reversal of the previous trend. Indicators being at or near oversold as we've seen then lately, especially on the daily, as well as shorts going parabolic the past few days into overbought territory, provide support to the idea that we will see a strong move upward. The daily chart shows price finding resistance at the descending dashed line as well as support at the S1. I am watching for a new higher high to be printed (price pushing above $8500 swing high) to confirm the potential LPS as noted on the chart. StochRSI remains strongly oversold and RSI is sitting at 36.5, just below its resistance at 41. A push through this resistance should see price pushing through the dashed line. A breach of the daily pivot around the 38.2 retracement should set up the attempt at breaching the swing high. I have been warning about the build up in shorts and at this point believe we will be seeing a short squeeze. The 30 minute chart gives you the areas I am watching noted with the boxes and horizontal lines based off various TFs. The first step for price is to breach the local swing high which is the equilibrium of that green box at $6627. Shorts should begin seeing liquidation around the mid-$6500s and mid-$6600s. I have highlighted the S1, pivot, and R1 levels in red. These are significant areas that price needs to push through to continue higher. The big move will be if price can breach the top of the blue box at $6925. That box denotes the previous supply zone/demand zone/supply zone once again. Currently, price is forming a tight pennant at the end of that $200 green candle suggesting that we should see it targeting the $6700-$6800 area. I wouldn't be surprised, depending on the degree of shorts liquidation up to that point, if we saw price extending its run to $6950. A fast enough move has the potential to see price pushing all the way up to the $7200 area as traders scramble to cover their shorts while others get liquidated. A significant number of stop losses and longs should be triggered on a breach of the top of that blue box. Failure of follow-through at this point, has the potential to see price dropping further. If so, traders should watch the boxes noted below price for support. As always, I will be discussing this in greater depth during today's live streams at 10 a.m. CST and 9 p.m. CST and looking at various TFs. TV won't allow me to post the social media site where I will be broadcasting from, but it's easy to find so I am sure if you are interested in tuning in you'll have no problem finding me. Thank you for checking out the analysis. Be sure to follow us here and leave a "like" on the way out.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
5
Liquidated retail shorts will fuel Bitcoin's upward movementGood Thursday morning, traders. Things start becoming interesting now with the weekend just a day away and daily RSI sitting on oversold. If you have been tuning into our daily live streams, then you know I have discussed the various possibilities presenting themselves at this time. Daily oversold often provides a bit of a decent bounce for price, at least, though many times it results in much more significant upside. Shorts continue to build to precarious levels as they are less than one tick away from being overbought, having risen +40% in the past 6 days while longs are currently down only about 10% in the past 3 days, putting them right back around the area they were at 6 days ago. Shorts hitting overbought at the same time price hits oversold has the potential to be quite explosive. As we saw late last night, when price hit the $6350 area shorts were already being liquidated. As I have continued to mention, their recent rate of growth suggests retail traders entering on emotion which results in over-leveraged, under-capitalized positions. In other words, a quick jump up in price could send shorts spiraling into liquidation which would result in a strong move up in price. As I am writing this I am watching short positions entered on this morning's light dip already getting liquidated. We continue to see strong bullish divergence building up on the MACD's negative histogram. If today's candle closes high enough it will create a new shorter tick to that histogram thereby cementing that bullish divergence. Right now, I am watching a strong bounce out of the upper-$6100s into almost $6500. Of course we saw some significant shorts liquidating on the way which enhanced that bounce as I outlined it would above. You can use the tool at tucsky.github.io to watch the buy and sell orders greater than $100K, across all major exchanges, as well as their liquidations in real time. Now we just need to see follow-through. I'm seeing shorts continuing to build though which means retail traders are trying to FOMO in at what they think will be the top of the bounce because they're all very emotionally bearish. Again, I believe these are over-leveraged, under-capitalized shorts which will provide fuel to move higher with just a nudge further upward in price. Overhead resistance begins in earnest at the $6800 box, however price must push through $6560 to even think about that box. I have noted the support and resistance areas on the 1H chart as well as provided the bigger picture via the 1D chart. Speaking of the latter, notice that StochRSI remains almost flat in oversold territory which, as I have been pointing out the past few days, should mean we will be seeing a reversal pretty soon. In terms of Wyckoff, I believe this to be the LPS. But that means we need to see a move upward from here to a new higher high (above $8500) in the form of an SOS to confirm it. As always, I will be discussing this in greater depth during today's live streams at 10 a.m. CST and 9 p.m. CST and looking at various TFs. TV won't allow me to post the social media site where I will be broadcasting from, but it's easy to find so I am sure if you are interested in tuning in you'll have no problem finding me. Thank you for checking out the analysis. Be sure to follow us here and leave a "like" on the way out.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
14
Bitcoin's diamond/double bottom is playing outGood morning, traders. Bitcoin appears to be working on the bounce that I discussed was more likely than not during the live stream last night. However, we must remain aware of the potential for a dead cat bounce rather than a full reversal of what may just be a corrective leg down since the $8500 high. This recent upward momentum has pushed price above the descending wedge's resistance and closer to the local descending broadening wedge's resistance (denoted by the dotted black lines). We continue to expect price to challenge the top of the large descending broadening wedge which started printing at the $8500 high. As I mentioned, a move up from the recent low requires advancement through various stages. The first is that we need to see a strong close above the recent swing high at $7153.60. Zooming out to the 4H chart shows us that an Eve and Adam double bottom formed (another way of looking at the double bottom is that it formed a "W" pattern) which means that a breach of that swing high sets up a target of $7438 which we get by measuring the distance from the bottom to that swing high and then adding it to the latter. This double bottom is also part of the diamond I have mentioned was likely forming the past couple of days. If price manages to breach $7300 and head toward the double bottom target, then it makes a compelling case for targeting the previous box at $7630-$7800. Along the way, we have a couple of 1H boxes that should provide some temporary resistance at $7230-$7280 and $7380-7420. The top of the daily cloud resides just above the 23.6% level at $7876. A close above this would mark the first time price has been above it since January. As we can see on the daily chart, price bounced near the 61.8% level and a good breach of $7130.90 gets it above the 50% level thereby suggesting a possible trend reversal from this recent corrective leg of movement. The daily pivot sits around the 38.2% retracement level of $7455.60 and a close above it is bullish. Daily RSI and OBV are bouncing off their supports and StochRSI has completed a bullish cross at the bottom of oversold.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
4
Are we really where they say in 2014?Remember, all corrections take the same general path as they are all the result of human beings and their unconscious reaction to fear and greed. They just take longer or shorter depending on the movement prior, and the movements may be more or less exaggerated. This comparison in no way suggests that price will definitively do one thing or the other. It is presented as an alternative view to the current lagging indicator narrative comparisons that have been permeating the market since February. All the other 2014 comparisons use indicator positions to attempt to make us believe where we currently are in relation to that period. The problem with that is that it only tells us a story in relation to price at that time. That in no way gives us any reason to believe that we are where they say we are now. Instead, let's take a look at volume and price action beginning with the Selling Climax (SC). Notice there is no SC until January of 2015. We, of course, had one in February of 2018. Take some time and look at all the points highlighted in both time frames, from the corrections prior to 2014 and 2018 (green and red boxes), to the price action and volume comparisons. While there are no guarantees either way, it seems to me that anyone seriously considering every other way that 2014 has been presented should at least be taking a look at it this way as well. (NOTE: The large candle prior to the SC in 2014 would appear to be an upthrust during redistribution.) Be sure to share this chart with everyone you can throughout social media, and ask those who view it to do the same, so that we can get a dialogue going and consider where this may fail in comparison or where it may present a compelling case. At the end of the day, no one knows exactly where price may end up at any time, so the only way traders can protect themselves to any extent is to understand the other side of the story they may be adhering to at the time. Only then can they apply appropriate risk management to their positions.
BNC:BLX
by Chris_Inks
5
Two possible bullish Bitcoin scenarios after yesterday's moveGood morning, traders. Price dipped a bit further than expected, but so far is acting exactly as I discussed it was likely to do. We saw strong absorption on the drop as indicated by the large volume and appear to have found the bottom, for now, at around $7450. This provides two possible scenarios if price is to continue upward. The right chart shows the possibility of price having just completed subwave 4 in the larger wave 1. This is my primary count at this time. I pulled my blue box back into this chart and we can see that the low point of this move down is about midway into the box. I also have the lower two support areas denoted by the horizontal dark red lines at ~$7400 and ~$7200. The pattern for what appears to be wave 4 in this current upward movement has developed from a pennant to a flag to a descending broadening wedge. As you can see, I have updated my EW count inside that DBW to a WXY. The challenge right now is that we aren't seeing much in the way of a rebound just yet. While not a significant issue at the moment, it could possibly mean that we are in the second scenario presented in the left chart. However, if we do see volume and spread expanding throughout today and potentially into tomorrow, then it bodes well for continued upward movement from here. That being said, price sill has to break that swing high at $8500. Failure to do so gives it a double top and we can expect price to then potentially target the ~$6400 area based on the current low last night. As we can see, that would put price at the S3 pivot on this time frame. The horizontal black dashed line shows us that it is a support area. But traders have to remember a double top isn't confirmed until price breaks the valley's low. So we would actually have to see price target that $8500 area and then also breach the $7450 low from last night afterward. If price follows this course, then we can assume that the current area is distribution with accumulation occurring at a lower point, possibly as low as that $6400 area, but we will need to continue watching price action and volume as the chart develops. This left chart shows price having completed the larger wave 1 and currently completing wave 2. In this scenario, we can see price ultimately testing the ~$6800 demand box which would put it at the bottom of the ascending broadening wedge (denoted by the ascending black dotted lines) which price would have pushed out of bullishly as it ran toward $8500. If this scenario plays out, then my initial expectation is to see a wick down into the box and subsequent good rebound back out of it. I expect a lot of demand at that point as there are a lot of buyers who missed their entry there on the way up recently. Traders need to remember that price is a process and the goal is to understand what may happen and then utilize what you know, as the analyst, to decipher the probabilities as to possible price movement. In doing so, traders must be fluid in their ability to remove the possible price paths that no longer make sense and add new ones as additional data makes itself known. Strong risk management is the backbone of wealth accumulation in this game, yet sadly it is the one part of trading that most new retail traders give little, if any, time to understanding and perfecting. Yes, we are on multiple social media accounts, however TV does not allow us to advertise them. I'm sure our followers here are astute enough to find us. Thank you for following and be sure to leave a "like."
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
17
Bitcoin is moving as suggested was likely during the live streamGood morning, traders. It's Thursday which means the week's end is near and trade volume generally begins decreasing. The overhang from the OKEx $420 million long liquidation comes to a head tomorrow. OKEx needs price to ramp back up above $8000 by Friday's settlement, which is 16:00 Hong Kong time on August 3, to cover/mitigate the loss created by that liquidation. If it fails to do so, the exchange does have a socialized loss clawback system that will require "users that have a net profit across all three contracts for that week be subject to ." That means that traders in net profit will see the clawback rate, whatever it happens to be at that time, deducted automatically from their profit. This means that we could see the exchange spoofing buy orders to get price moving upward or larger interested/potentially negatively-affected parties doing the same. This is just speculation, but it is something to watch for as price dropping any lower would become extremely expensive for those OKEx profiteers targeted by the clawback system, especially since that significant of a clawback would likely hurt OKEx strongly in terms of user migration toward other exchanges. We saw price breach $7700 overnight and then retrace to just below the 78.6% fib level. This looks to be a deep retrace of wave 2 of this smaller movement which began at yesterday's low of $7440. A drop below this latter level suggests further bearish momentum requiring a watch of the $7200 level as the next area of support. If price continues higher without breaching that lower level, then I expect it to follow the general outline of movement created by the blue lines I added during last night's live stream (I have only modified them slightly to fit the overnight movement). Those lines in no way suggest a time frame or EW wave structure, however; rather they serve as a guide to potential price movement. At this point, price has created what appears to be a triple bottom on the 1H chart with the most recent low being higher than the previous two, suggesting upward momentum. But we do need to see follow through which means price must breach the overnight high. Doing so will pull it out of the descending broadening wedge as well. Its current structure does appear to be a mini accumulation period further supporting the idea of price appreciation. We can see strong bullish divergence between MACD's negative histogram and price as well on this time frame, so traders should be watching for the same on larger time frames too. Everything else aside, as I mentioned during last night's live stream, we expect price to at least challenge the top of the large descending broadening wedge as the fourth alternating touch which could then see a retracement as low as the middle of the DBW as the 5th movement and then a push up and out of that upper resistance line. I will discuss that more in this morning's stream. As always, TV won't allow me to advertise where we stream, but I have no doubt y'all can find it quick and easy. Thanks, as always, for following and giving a "like" to the chart!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
14
Bitcoin's morning shakeout has traders reelingGood morning, traders. Price action this morning exemplifies the importance of short term traders not getting into a position when the market is moving sideways like it has been. This is what I'm constantly warning new traders about. There is no definitiveness of movement until price exits that sideways chop. Unfortunately that is also one of the most difficult things to get new traders to understand as they constantly feel the need to be in the market. This desire to do so is purely emotional and will result in losses if not kept in check. On the bright side, it does appear that we may have completed/are nearing completion of an ABC correction which would complete Wave 4 and send us up to complete Wave 5. For those who have been following my live streams, I did mention the possibility on the 27th/28th that the move down which appeared to be a spring at that time could be the ST on a larger TF with the spring to come since price had dropped significantly lower than the previous low. And that when that spring came, it would likely be at the end of the pennant -- a drop through the bottom of the pennant causing traders to go short so that those shorts would fill the C.O.'s waiting longs. Looking at the 6H chart four days later, this does appear to be the case. The challenge faced when a movement first begins is understanding what's going on. A trader's understanding should refine itself as the movement plays out allowing the trader to lessen their risk of entry but simultaneously decreasing the potential reward. This is where understanding one's particular position as trader/investor comes into play. By being honest with yourself and understanding what makes you who you are as a trader/investor (current wealth and financial position, long/short/mid-term financial and wealth goals, level of risk aversion or tolerance, and the TF you are able to trade on) you are able to develop a trading style that provides the greatest possible return for yourself. Not doing so will lead to failure in proper risk management and subsequent loss of capital. If you joined our live streams yesterday, you know I mentioned that I didn't expect to see any large directional movements out of the TR until after the monthly close. This most recent price action has set the stage for that further potential advancement. By pushing price down as has been done this morning, we are seeing a lower low in price from the July 27th swing low. We are also seeing RSI dipping into oversold on the larger TFs. A strong advance from this point would create a possible higher low in oscillators at those same points thereby creating bullish divergence and signalling further price appreciation. As we have been discussing during our live streams, keeping price within the TR creates boredom for traders causing some to exit before definitive movement and others to be shaken out with a spring. This is the removal of excess supply from the market -- "getting rid of the weak hands" as it is often referred to -- and is what appears to potentially be occurring this morning. To validate this, we need to see strong movement up as the day progresses. This strong push down before the monthly close is akin to what happens before CME and CBOE futures closes. Failure of price appreciation into this evening (beyond the monthly close) would have me considering this to be a top in spite of everything we have been seeing recently. It doesn't make sense at this time, but one of the most important skills to have as a trader is the ability to remain fluid when the market signals something different from your current position. Yes, we are on multiple social media accounts, however TV does not allow us to advertise them. I'm sure our followers here are astute enough to find us. Thank you for following and be sure to leave a "like."
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
16
Bitcoin Groundhog Day Re-AccumulationBitcoins painting a very similar re-accumulation phase just like before . Theres a very well defined BC and AR creating the TR, a ST and what appears to be a creek forming. I'm wary that there is a possibility that this is a little premature none the less something to keep in mind. Volume is dropping, price range is narrowing, volatility dying and buying activity around the support level is solid. All good indications that this is re-accumulation.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DickieWyckoff
4