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Real National Debt - Not as high as we think?When you take the total public US Federal debt divided by gold you get this chart. Interestingly it shows we are in the middle of several year range. Maybe our current debt isn't as bad as we thought? Note that I call this our "Real" National Debt because gold helps take out all the money printing and serves as a better store of value and/or currency. 2018 shows the highest ever 'real' debt according to this data which was under President Trump.
FRED:GFDEBTN
by JSiminoski
Evergrande: A DiscussionConcerns Investors May Have: China is said to contain more of the world's real estate assets than any other country. Therefore one concern is the potential impact a possible default may cause to international property markets. Consumer confidence in real estate investments could reduce and perhaps lower property demand, potentially reducing real estate prices. Should this occur to a great extent, pre-existing property loans could outvalue the revaluation of the real estate asset. This potential major contrast between loans outvaluing the associated properties could collapse some banks internationally. A possible mass sell-off of property globally by investors and banks could burst the property bubble. Another concern is investors could forfeit involvement in companies offering similar services. There ore other confounding factors involving the current pandemic, employment, inflation and among others. Thank you for reading. Please share your thoughts. Do you believe this company could be bailed-out or would other companies in a similar position expect similar treatment? ---- Disclaimer: This does not constitute any form of advice including legal, financial or investment advice and should not be construed or relied on as such. Always seek advice from a qualified and registered legal practitioner or financial or investment adviser. Information presented is for entertainment purposes only.
HKEX:3333
by calculations
EverGrande Real-estate situation in China = Black Swan Event?Will the EverGrande Real-estate situation in China be the catalyst that pops our real estate bubble and slow down our homebuilder industry? This was last year, when they listed their stock to the HK market and scammed retail money. Now they are out of cash again, and their bonds are worth less than 30% on the dollar. If this thing collapse, it could be China's version of the Lehman Collapse. " The world’s most indebted developer has warned Chinese officials it faces a potential default that could roil the nation’s $50 trillion financial system unless regulators approve the company’s long-delayed stock exchange listing. Shares and bonds fell in volatile trading. China Evergrande Group mapped out the scenario in an Aug. 24 letter to the Guangdong government seen by Bloomberg, in which the company sought support for a restructuring proposal needed to secure the listing and avert a cash crunch. Some of Evergrande’s biggest strategic investors have the right to demand their money back if the company fails to win approval for a backdoor listing on the Shenzhen stock exchange by Jan. 31. If investors refuse to extend the deadline, Evergrande will need to repay as much as 130 billion yuan ($19 billion), equivalent to 92% of its cash and cash equivalents."
AMEX:XHB
by WallSt007
The Future of Real EstateThe future of real estate (RE) is without a doubt online. As an agent in various cities across Texas (Houston + Bryan + College-Station), I have had real-world experience with how these factors affect the whole supply chain of RE. I believe that almost every aspect of RE is in the crosshairs of drastic change. I will break it down into several categories and a corresponding public company with ventures in the sub-sector. Real Estate Tours - It is obvious why this practice was revolutionized during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, I believe that this trend will be one that sticks with us for the rest of time. The savings created in terms of time, travel, and other resources provides an immediate economic surplus. This is particularly true if you are moving from another state or country. Additionally, the universality of smartphones allows you to tour pretty much any property from the luxury of essentials anywhere. STOCK: $RDFN - Redfin Corporation Digital Document Signing - This should be the 8th wonder of the world. The ability to sign from anywhere is a luxury that the human race desperately needed. It enhances accessibility, speed of transaction, and paper reduction. Which all happen to be good for the environment. It’s a yes from me, dawg! STOCK: $DOCU DocuSign Inc. Photography/Staging - One of the newest development in RE is immersive virtual tours and virtual staging. Check one I made here (Use incognito Browser). Both are huge developments with serious cost savings and arguably better results. Virtual tours are perfect examples of ‘a picture is worth 1000 words’. Staging is a huge development because it takes the hassle and money out of physically moving furniture, decor, etc into AND out of an unoccupied home. A huge benefit for all parties. STOCK: $MTTR - Matterport House Pricing - Pricing a home is one of the hardest things for a realtor. There are a lot of variables that you must take into account and the margin of error can be quite significant. So, why not use technology which is infinitely better at math than the greatest mathematician? Pricing mechanisms like Zillow’s Zestimate use AI and variables about a home to instantly price any property. STOCK: $Z - Zillow Group Inc. Wholesaling - One of the most profitable industries in RE is wholesaling. What is wholesaling? Just like any wholesaler, they buy products at a discount and then sell them at a larger markup. Think Walmart or Amazon but for all kinds of RE. These entities find distressed or unwanted properties and find a corresponding buyer for a premium. Economically speaking, anytime you take out the middleman more profit is shared between the counterparties, the same applies in this scenario. STOCK: $OPEN - Open Door Technologies Property Management - Property management is exactly what it sounds like, boring right? The management of property whether that property is a 1-bed house or a 1000-unit apartment property management companies manage these properties. They are in charge of getting the property leased, performing maintenance, settling customer services disputes, and everything in between. Yet, for the most part, property managers are antiquated and use little technology. With AI and automation, we are on the verge of a management revolution. STOCK: I am unaware of a good company in the space. Any suggestions? In summation, each of the categories is distinct in its own way and each of these categories is vital for the RE complex as a whole. As the industry continues to evolve these processes will still be required in the business. The manner in which the business is conducted, however, is positioned to be disrupted in a massive way. We are in a RE renaissance.
NASDAQ:Z
by howdydany
8-Weird Tricks to Crash the Real-Estate MarketSo one of my daily rants got long enough to warrant a Medium post. Whether you agree with it or not, I think I do have a plan mapped out for myself, at least financially speaking. The tl;dr is that underlying trends don't really look good for the US real-estate market right now, despite record high gains in the last few years. Or maybe it's more accurate to say that the record gains is what *is* going to cause it to crash later on. Just like with #crypto, except more unpleasant, because it's tied to so many more things, and people. When, I don't know. But "if" is no longer a question for me anymore. ryangtanaka.medium.com
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
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BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by tmsarn
5
Brazilian real is a buy here. Buy a basket of EMFX vs the USD Coming into the new year, the reflationary trade was working quite well. In January, we saw a period of heightened volatility that stressed emerging markets. Brazil was no exception. That said, the weak dollar trend looks likely to resume in the next few months, after the positioning shake-out that we saw in January. Many hedge funds are still on the sidelines and scared to commit capital to risk-assets. They will be forced to do so in March when performance benchmarks come out. EMFX and commodity exporters should continue to perform strongly as the US pursues the largest stimulus package in history. Recently, the USD looks on the verge of breaking out to the upside, though I would much rather fade this move with a tight stop. In Brazil specifically, the likelihood of Selic rates being raised increases the chance of currency appreciation. There are no real organic sellers above 5.40. The risk/reward is for the BRL to rally significantly from here.
Short
by MT-Macro
6
What if the money printer weren't going BRRR? SPX in GoldHere's a view of the S&P 500 index divided by the price of gold. It shows a top in 2018. A trend line of consecutive peaks shows that today--even with Chairman Powell's money printer humming along, the S&P 500 index is still looking over valued. Are economic conditions better today than in 2018 and 2019? I'd say no given the covid-19 pandemic. (There's a virus, and it's killing people. This fact seems lost on the stock market?) Are corporates abilities to service their debt better today than in 2018 and 2019? No. This 2019 report from Deloitte found that corporate debt in the latest recovery (2010-2017) was weaker in quality than in the previous two recoveries (2002-2007 and 1992-2000): www2.deloitte.com What do you think about doing trend analysis SPX/Gold? What would you look for?
TVC:SPXShort
by Cowston
2