TX: Ternium is a huge buy here...I think $TX shares are likely to benefit from increasing inflation and higher interest rates in their target markets, caused by the huge money printing and govt spending needed to survive the Coronavirus induced recession. As activity picks up, construction in these markets will be a very profitable endeavor, specially as real estate prices tend to go mostly higher due to the terrible combination of high interest rates and high inflation in these EM nations. Additionally, steel itself is likely to go up due to the infinite QE effect over time as well.
Valuation for $TX was very attractive recently, and I've been buying it for some time. Currently one of my favorite stock ideas.
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Ivan Labrie.
Realestate
$ACC can fall in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea.
American Campus Communities, Inc. is the largest owner, manager and developer of high-quality student housing communities in the United States.
The share price fell after California public universities announced they will maintain primarily online education in the Fall. It looks like it will continue falling.
The demand for shares of the company still looks lower than the supply.
So I opened a short position from $26,75;
stop-loss — $29,38.
Information about take-profits will be later.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
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Real Estate Revival? How Long? NYMT Example CaseAll,
Assuming we find a bottom here in REIT. Looking back the collapse of 07-08 took around 2.5 years to turn a $2 investment into $8. I first off all feel awful for the real estate market. I think it was actually primed to move up after the 08/15 crashes, and right when it was ready to move up coronavirus hit etc. Unfortunately whoever owns some of these smaller companies really doesn't do much hedging or turn their company have different revenue streams.
Anyways long story short... the recovery in 08 took 2.5 years because it fought it''s way down. You can see more than likely where people thought was a bottom and it spiked. 15 was not as bad and in general recovered quicker. Also during that time had a lot more going for it vs war etc.
IMO I think the REIT right now is sort of the mini gold mine.
Reasons why Real Estate will recover fast (once we actually have a bottom):
-We crashed hard and fast. This means there was not a fight on the way down good for bulls really. This also might be we are smarter now due to the past. So the recovery time could be much faster.
Question is... is the bottom here? I am 50/50 here. I think it's possible, but I also think there may be a second lockdown / covid wave.
$MFA: $3 to $4 Swing Potential (78%+ Correction Growth)First off, please don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on opinion basis. That being said, let me get into a few of my key opinions. Right now, MFA financial has been a stable growing stock overall in terms of its history. However, it had one of the biggest bearish runs any stocks have ever seen. The housing market also took a huge hit recently, and for a stock to have a performance of between $0.32 and $8.09 within 52 weeks is crazy. I think this is more and more likely a short call then a long one, but I am very bullish on an upcoming upswing trendline for MFA given past correlations and what investors have been saying .
FRPH: $49.24 Short Target from MomentumFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously. As always, this is on opinion basis. That being said, let us get into my analysis. Many people have recently gave FRPH buy ratings, but its momentum haven't been too strong to say it still doesn't have steep resistance curves as well. Given where I would put the target based off of past correlations, I think the next target for a short call that is quite bullish, should be around $49.24.
Which sectors will continue to loose ground due the Coronavirus?Most of them are well known for all. Everyone hopes, that they will start recovery in a short amount of time.
In West Europe we don't expect too early recovery, although some restrictions are down.
World-Signals expects the economic problem to exist beyond the reach of 2020 to 2021.
One of the biggest structures to suffer are the tourism - ski resorts, restaurants, bars and etc.
Although the fact that many investments in real estates, hotels and restaurants may go out to public sell is too early to invest there. The bottom is far away into very low prices in a few years ahead.
MFA Launch Pad Coming UpSo I have an option on this for 4/17 strike price $1.30 aka passed it. Regardless this stock clearly is a result of the virus not of the company. I think you will continue to see big results from this stock over the next weeks/month if not longer.
Of course the virus news highly dictates real estate.
NYSE:MFA
NYSE:DOW
TVC:SPX
Could Real Estate be the next "Shoe" to drop?AMEX:REK Though it may be a little early to tell, we might just might see a buyer's market emerging in real estate in the next few months to come.
Although, not a popular ETF, this short ProShares ETF seeks a return that is -1x of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index. I know it's probably not most pleasing though to think the real estate market could go down, but it is possible that the recent 3 million Americans unemployed due to the Coronavirus could be one of the first signs of an economic slowdown. Historically, if you look at how monetary policy plays a role into the economy, lowering the Fed Funds rate helps loosen credit so that banks and business pay less interest. However, this in turn often affects fixed income and mortgage rates.
After the 2008 Financial crisis, the Federal reserve initiated QE, short for quantitative easing, which can be thought of as an injection of money into the heart of our financial system... or as like to say "printing money." We have seen a similar action taken by the Federal Reserve recently. Under "normal" conditions real estate prices move opposite of mortgage rates. You either spend more money for a house or commercial property and pay a lower interest rate, or you wait for real estate prices to fall, but enter a mortgage with a bit of a higher interest rate.
In this situation, we have unemployment on the rise in the U.S. and globally. Businesses around the world are closing... some of which may be permanent, people are not spending money, and may fall in debt. In some states, such as California, major banks have a 90 day waiver on residential mortgage payments to provide time for people to get back to work. However, it is uncertain if many of the unemployed population will have a job to return to in order to meet their obligations to the bank.
Throughout the bull market, shares of REK have been steadily declining as interest rates have been near 0 for most of that time, allowing the economy to strengthen. However, since the initial drop on Feb 28th, 2020, REK has increased by 50% and the average volume has since increased 10-fold. On a daily basis, the average volume of shares traded has been ~24,000 range. In recent days that number has increase to ~240,000.
What are your thoughts? Where do you see Real Estate heading in the next few months to come?