Realestate
XLRE: Sell opportunity on recurring pattern.The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (XLRE) reached a new All Time High today extending the aggressive bullish run since the start of the year. The candle pattern is very similar to the February - August 2016 when it made a peak after a +28.60% rise and declined below the MA200 with a first stop at -9%. The current price action appears to be following this pattern and is close to completing both the +28.60% rise parameter and the 175 day duration parameter. We are taking a short aiming at repeating the -9% initial decline (34.50) towards the MA200.
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Short Canadian Real EstateThis short opportunity is based in fundamentals that the Canadian Real Estate Market is overvalued and house prices are already in the correction territory in cities such as Vancouver and Toronto.
Considering that REITs seems not be affected this year so far I believe that is about to change. It might be a just a small pull back and the prices can still be sustained for at least a year. However, the main principle is that upside is bigger than the downside if you are short Real Estate. In addition, REITs are risk averse for the most part, so the profit/loss exposure can be reduced.
Anyway, another point is if you look at Housing Bubble in US, one of the first signs of bursting it was the REIT falling apart before anything else.