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REM: Partial Rise within an Ascending Broadening WedgeAs the Fed Funds Rate rises and the rise in Consumer Credit Balances come to a halt, I think it will lead to Deflationary Pressure. This pressure would likely send Short Term Bond Yields lower starting with the ultra short ones like the 1 year and below, when this happens I think we could then see this be reflected within the Mortgage Back Securities (MBS) and if that's the case, this ETF will likely fall because it mostly holds a lot of very Short Term MBSs with maturities ranging between 0 and 5 Years, and as the rate of the MBSs fall so will the Demand for them which would likely lead to lower prices. Due to what I explained above I think that this Harmonic ABCD BAMM break down will likely happen and send REM down to the 1.13 Fibonacci Extension.
CBOE:REMShort
by RizeSenpai
Consumer Credit: Harmonically Set Up to Return Down To TrendConsumer Credit has recently risen to over $1 Trillion and this rise happens to align with a 2.618 Fibonacci Extension and the PCZ of a Bearish ABCD. If we view this based on the expectations of Harmonics and Fibonacci, we would expect that this is indeed the top and that we will now begin a retrace back down to trend, which could likely land us between the 50% and 61.8% retrace down at $600–$500 Billion as those retraces line up with the trend line we have formed.
FRED:CCLACBW027SBOGShort
by RizeSenpai
Essex Property Trust DCA - Double bottom Company: Essex Property Trust Ticker: ESS Exchange:NYSE Sector: Real Estate Introduction: In our latest technical examination, we focus on Essex Property Trust, a significant player in the real estate sector. The daily chart brings to light a possible bullish reversal pattern, specifically a double bottom, which has been in development over the last 279 days. Double Bottom Pattern: A double bottom is a classic technical analysis pattern that suggests a potential reversal from a preceding downward trend. It is characterized by two distinct troughs at roughly the same price level, with a peak in between – visually resembling the letter 'W'. Analysis: Essex Property Trust's prior trajectory was bearish, marked distinctly by the blue diagonal resistance line. However, the formation of the double bottom pattern suggests a potential shift in this trend. The horizontal resistance, or the "neckline" of the double bottom, is identified at 240.88$. Currently, the stock's price is not only above the 200 EMA, indicating a bullish ambiance, but it has also surpassed the horizontal resistance. This breach makes the case for a bullish entry more compelling. Based on the depth of the pattern, our projection for the price target stands at 286.23, translating to an approximate upside of 18.81%. Conclusion: Essex Property Trust's daily chart paints a promising bullish picture, signaled by the double bottom formation and the breach of key resistance levels. A favorable trading opportunity seems to be on the horizon, provided other market conditions remain supportive. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As always, ensure that this analysis integrates seamlessly into your comprehensive market research and risk assessment practices. It should not be misconstrued as direct trading advice. If you found value in this analysis, please consider sharing and following for more insights. Wishing you successful trading! Best regards, Karim Subhieh Disclaimer: This technical analysis is intended for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and seek advice from a financial consultant before making any investment decisions.
NYSE:ESSLong
by KarimSubhieh
2
CBRE Group WCA - Rectangle PatternCompany: CBRE Group, Inc. Ticker: CBRE Exchange: NYSE Sector: Real Estate Introduction: Today, our focus is on CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE), a leader in the Real Estate sector, listed on the NYSE. The weekly chart exhibits a Rectangle pattern, suggesting a potential bullish breakout. Rectangle Pattern: The Rectangle pattern typically forms during periods of market consolidation, acting as a pause in the trend before the price action continues or reverses. The pattern is characterized by price oscillations between a well-defined support and resistance level. Analysis: Previously, CBRE Group was in a clear downtrend (represented by the blue diagonal resistance line), which was interrupted by a consolidation phase, forming a Rectangle pattern. The pattern, with three touch points on both the upper and lower boundaries, implies a potential bullish breakout. Currently, the price is above the 200 EMA, indicating a bullish environment. If we see a successful breakout above the upper horizontal resistance at 87.78, this could present a valid opportunity for a long position. In the case of a successful breakout, the price target would be set at 108.82, representing a potential gain of approximately 23.76%. Conclusion: The CBRE Group's weekly chart presents a compelling setup with a bullish Rectangle pattern, hinting at a potential reversal of the downtrend. This setup could offer a favorable long trading opportunity. As always, this analysis should be used in conjunction with your overall market research and risk management strategy, and not as direct trading advice. If you found this analysis helpful, please consider liking, sharing, and following for more insights. Wishing you profitable trading! Best regards, Karim Subhieh Disclaimer: This analysis is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NYSE:CBRE
by KarimSubhieh
Invitation Homes Inc. DCA - Rectangle PatternCompany: Invitation Homes Inc. Ticker: INVH Exchange: NYSE Sector: Real Estate Introduction: Today's technical analysis focuses on Invitation Homes Inc. (INVH), a key player in the Real Estate sector, listed on the NYSE. The daily chart presents an unfolding Rectangle pattern, indicating a potential breakout scenario for bullish investors. Rectangle Pattern: The Rectangle pattern is typically observed during periods of market consolidation and can signify either a bullish or bearish reversal or trend continuation, depending on the direction and place of the breakout. It's characterized by a trading range where the price oscillates between a defined support and resistance level. Analysis: Earlier, Invitation Homes was experiencing a distinct downward trend, as represented by the blue diagonal resistance line. However, the trend appears to be shifting, with the price now consolidating within a Rectangle pattern that has been forming for the past 238 days. It acts as a reversal pattern. Recently, the price closed not only above the 200 EMA but also above the rectangle's upper boundary at 34.15, so we could enter this trade directly. We would ideally like to see the price break above the diagonal resistance line. Assuming the breakout is valid, the price target is projected at 39.73, indicating a potential upside of approximately 16.34%. Conclusion: Invitation Homes' daily chart suggests a promising setup in the form of a Rectangle breakout, implying a potential bullish reversal. This configuration could provide a favorable long trading opportunity. If you found this analysis helpful, please consider liking, sharing, and following for more insights. Wishing you profitable trading! Best regards, Karim Subhieh Disclaimer: This analysis is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions..
NYSE:INVH
by KarimSubhieh
2
Stock prices are a picture, but life is a movie - SPX valuationsSPX: stock prices are a picture, but life is a movie daily stock prices dont tell the whole story. They only reflect the buying and selling of yesterday. The businesses behind the stock are dynamic and change over time. Like Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham always preach, you can wake up one day and Mr Market will bring you a different and possibly wild price that may surprise you. You get to choose what you want to swing at. CBOE:SPX #spx #realestate #warrenbuffett
SP:SPX
by optionfarmers
7
The Foundations of Real Estate InvestingIntroduction Real estate investing has long been an attractive method of wealth creation for both individual and institutional investors. The allure of real estate as an investment vehicle stems from its ability to generate stable cash flow, provide tax benefits, and appreciate in value over time. As such, understanding the basics of real estate investing is essential for those interested in building a robust, diversified investment portfolio. This article aims to provide an overview of the fundamental concepts and strategies associated with real estate investing, focusing on the various types of investments, sources of funding, and risk management techniques. Types of Real Estate Investments Residential Properties: These investments primarily include single-family homes, townhouses, condominiums, and multi-family properties. The primary source of income from residential properties is rent, which can offer a stable, long-term cash flow. Commercial Properties: Commercial real estate encompasses a wide range of property types, such as office buildings, retail spaces, and warehouses. These investments typically involve longer lease terms, which can provide more consistent income and reduced vacancy risk. Industrial Properties: This category consists of manufacturing facilities, distribution centers, and storage facilities. Industrial properties are characterized by their potential for higher yields and lower tenant turnover compared to other asset types. Land: Investing in land involves purchasing undeveloped or underdeveloped property with the intention of holding or developing it for future profit. This strategy can be risky but offers substantial appreciation potential. Sources of Funding Personal Savings: Many real estate investors begin by utilizing their personal savings to fund their first investment. This strategy allows for greater control and flexibility, though it may limit the investor's ability to diversify their portfolio. Bank Loans: Traditional bank loans are a common source of financing for real estate investors. These loans are typically secured by the property itself, and their terms and interest rates vary based on the borrower's creditworthiness and the property's potential for generating income. Private Lenders: Private lenders, such as hard money lenders or individuals, can provide short-term financing for real estate investments. These loans often have higher interest rates and fees but can offer faster approval and funding than traditional bank loans. Real Estate Crowdfunding: Crowdfunding platforms allow investors to pool their resources to invest in real estate projects. This method can provide access to a diverse range of investment opportunities and enables investors to participate in deals that may have been out of reach individually. Risk Management Techniques Diversification: Spreading investments across different property types, geographic locations, and tenant industries can help mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations, economic downturns, and property-specific issues. Thorough Property Analysis: Conducting a comprehensive assessment of a property's location, condition, and potential for generating income is crucial for managing risks and making informed investment decisions. Leverage Management: While leverage can amplify returns, it can also increase risk. Investors should carefully assess their ability to handle debt and maintain a sustainable debt-to-equity ratio to minimize the risk of default. Exit Strategies: Having a clear exit strategy in place, such as selling the property, refinancing, or converting it to a different use, can help investors protect their investment and maximize returns. Conclusion Understanding the basics of real estate investing is vital for those seeking to participate in this potentially lucrative market. By familiarizing oneself with the various types of investments, sources of funding, and risk management techniques, investors can make more informed decisions and position themselves for success. As with any investment, conducting thorough research and seeking professional advice is essential for maximizing returns and minimizing risks. As real estate markets continue to evolve, investors must remain adaptable and flexible to capitalize on new opportunities and navigate challenges. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment & subscribe for future educational ideas and trading setups.
CBOE:SIXREEducation
by financialflagship
Getting caught in the interest-rate trapThe low interest rates set by central banks in recent years have led to a real estate boom in the U.S. and Europe, but as interest rates begin to rise rapidly, banks and real estate companies may become insolvent. The commercial real estate market is in shock and transactions are not as frequent. The high prices of real estate will have to fall until rental yields are in line with interest on debt. This will result in losses for investors and investment vehicles lured into the market by low interest rates. The situation is particularly dire in Europe, where interest rates are even lower than in the United States. Real estate companies are experiencing financial difficulties, with the Stoxx 600 Real Estate Index losing 40% last year. Many companies' bonds are now trading as junk, despite having investment-grade ratings. Germany's Vonovia is one such company, with a rental yield of just 3% and refinancing costs of over 5%. This means that the company is paying more to refinance its debt than it is earning in rental income, which is not sustainable in the long term.Many real estate funds are also affected, including Blackstone's B-REIT, which has seen significant redemption requests. Banks are also in trouble because they have a lot of loans to commercial real estate companies that are unlikely to be repaid. They also have a problem with residential mortgages, because if property values fall and people lose income in a recession, they may not be able to pay back their loans. In addition, people are moving their savings out of banks and into government bonds and money market funds that offer higher interest rates, putting banks in a difficult position. Bad news: The banks are completely caught in the interest rate trap: if they raise deposit rates to keep savers, their already measly interest margin shrinks and they lose money every day. If they do not raise deposit rates, the bank run continues and they risk becoming illiquid like Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. So it looks like another credit crunch similar to the 2008 financial crisis. Banks are cutting back on new lending, which is causing lending to fall sharply and exacerbating the credit crunch among over-indebted companies. This, in turn, increases the likelihood of bankruptcies and forced sales. Interest premiums on new loans and bonds rise, leading to a self-reinforcing downward spiral. The eventual demand for government and central bank intervention will ultimately be paid for by the general public. The bottom line: It feels like the financial sector is lurching towards a new crisis, lured into the trap of more than a decade of measly interest rates and years of bad investments of capital. In my view, shares of banks from all former low-interest countries are currently not worth investing in, no matter how favourable their valuations may look. The extent of the damage can hardly be estimated at the beginning of the crisis and total losses are imminent. But also stocks of other companies, which have more or less fixed income for a longer period of time and have to finance themselves on the capital market at higher interest rates in the short term, are red-hot - above all real estate companies or infrastructure investments.
AMEX:XLRE
by ReallyMe
Trade Idea: VICIVici properties is showing weakening in its trend. This has been directly tied to the weakness in XLRE - real estate We believe VICI properties has much more downside. This specific Real estate play also has much property exposure to the casino type names. With many of the Casino charts like MGM, LVS looking "topheavy" this may be a correlated play that already has headwinds from the weakening in real estate. If the economy weakens to a degree the consumer discretionary stocks should also be hit.
NYSE:VICI
by Trading-Capital
TMHC - Summer '23 Real Estate Apocalypse? (Short)Redmane: They are over extended on homes built and going to be forced to sell at a loss with rates climbing and people's buying power dropping. Dawson's notes: 1) Zoom out we're in a large channel with good support at $27 (yellow) 2) The 21 day ATR is between $40 and $33. 3) Price is right against resistance at the $38 double top, which is also the midpoint of the channel (thin dashed lines)). So if we get a bull move, there's not a lot of resistance between $38 and the top of the channel at $50. If we get a bear move, I wouldn't expect to break below $27. Conclusion: We're eying a 2.29 to 1 short through the summer. NOTE: We have a lot of chop and pivot support and an old gap(!) at $28.30 so a TP just above it at $28.57? If i was scalping or looking to take a partial profit, I'd sell a little at $34/33ish (thin green line). These are just some thoughts to consider. Housing is in a very precarious spot due to the combination of high home prices and high mortgage rates.
NYSE:TMHCShort
by dawsonMoonshot
$TNX & short term yields breaking support levelsWhile the #fed reserve has made it clear they're not stopping rate increases yet, #bonds yields put a top in days ago. $TNX actually did it some time ago! We noticed certain sectors, like insurance, began lowering premiums done time ago. Did they know something was start didn't? Small community banks are getting crushed and if rates crater it may alleviate the balance sheets of those remaining. Anyway, the fed tends to overdo everything they do. Many are calling recession or something much harsher. Time will tell but banks going busy is not a good sign.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
BRICS gain as West plunderBRICS nation are growing root in rapid speed. Mexico has joined BRICS recently and many are lining up. China just mediated a diplomatic pact between Iran and Saudi Arabia, gaining more grounds in Middle East. A new superpower bloc in the making. A potential new reserve currency that is backed by commodities such as gold is on the rise. We are seeing majority of BRICS nations are purchasing gold at breakneck pace. They know the US Dollar hegemony that is backed by nothing, may one day lose its dominance. As US banking sector continues to crater, soon it will spill over to the next most vulnerable industry, which is real estate. Housing market is extremely critical to the overall well-being of US economy. With companies laying off employees, prices of necessities continue to rise and Jerome Powell continue raising rates, path down the road don't look too bright. By Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by XeroAcademy
Real Estate Sector; A Very Bearish FractalJust like in the lead up to the 2008 the REITs have been going up with no sign of slowingh down whilst inside of an Ascending Broadenign Wedge/Channel and has on it's 4th attempt gone above the Supply Line Breifly only to very quickly come back down again and now it's cracked below botht the 21 and 55 Month EMAs; The last time it's done marked the beginning of an accelerated move down and the eventual Breakdown of the wedge where it then went for the measured move of the wedge which is the price where the wedge began; In this case that would be back down at $289.91 For more context as to how this dump started check the Idea in the Related Ideas Tab as that has a Weekly Timeframed Chart of the VNQ ETF that was showing Bearish Variables before the REIT's Decline Began.
DJ:REITShort
by RizeSenpai
LANDSHARE HAS THE STRONGEST AND THE BEST POTENTIAL.This is my technical analysis for this great project called LANDSHARE where a real asset are tokenized specifically real estate. The project offers an investment into the real estate " TOKENIZED ASSET " for only 50$ . This project has a great potential to reach 600$ based on the technical analysis and on the other hand the fundamental analysis say it has the potential to reach 1000$ . Also the crypto space may get involved in the real estate businesses where LANDSHARE will be the face of it. The team behind LANDSHARE project are doing amazing things to improve the project and developing it in the right way. Not financial advice.
Long
by hgpvfd132
3
However you slice it, real estate doesn’t look good.While it might not be the subprime/GFC “SELL” kind of situation, the real estate sector is undoubtedly facing headwinds. With the most recent Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) printing higher than consensus, maybe it’s about time we take the Fed’s hawkish commentary more seriously. To review, let us look at interest rate expectations from a month ago vs today. Market expectations are now pricing in three 25bps hikes instead of one, and more importantly no more rate cuts in the second half of 2023. This rise in rates expectation has notably resulted in sideways action for equities, while the dollar strengthens. What a difference a month makes! Mostly importantly, it’s not hard to see how higher rates will translate into higher mortgage rates. This is bad news for home buyers as borrowing becomes more and more unaffordable. In fact, higher mortgage rates have continued to weigh on the minds of Fed officials as underscored by the following statements in the latest Fed minutes, including “Participants agreed that activity in the housing market had continued to weaken, largely reflecting the increase in mortgage rates over the past year.” and “Participants agreed that cumulative policy firming to date had reduced demand in the most interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the economy, particularly housing.” Existing home sales are now at a 12-year low, surpassing the 2020 lows. Only 2 other periods post-GFC, saw a lower print, and it’s worth noting that mortgage rates during those periods were at the same level or lower. Home prices have also started to turn over, ending a 12-year run higher. Lower prices could indicate tepid demand in the housing market, which we will watch closely over the next few prints. And forward-looking indicators all seem to point towards contraction. With US Building permits and NAHB Housing Market Index slightly off the covid low, while the MBA Purchase Index close to the 7-year low. It does seem like however, we slice it, real estate looks pretty ugly now. One way to express the bearish view on real estate could be to use the CME E-Mini Real Estate Select Sector Futures which tracks the S&P Real Estate Select Sector Index. Looking at the sector futures alongside the 30-year Mortgage rates shows us the effect of the rising rates on the real estate sector. On the technical front, we see the sector future breaking the short-term support established since October 2022, while the longer-term trend seems to point downwards. Given our view that rates have further to go, negative home prices and sentiment measures across the board, and a technical break lower, we see the potential for the sector future to trade lower. We set our stops at 196, a previous resistance level, and the take-profit level at 163, with each 0.05 increment in the index equal to 12.5 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.federalreserve.gov
CME_MINI:XAR1!Short
by inspirante
Present and On-Going Forecast Real Estate Market The formula that I worked on for weeks, finally I can put the puzzles together a chart of an ongoing real estate chart and what I provided is an economic formula that's used to adjust the median sales price of houses sold in the US for inflation and mortgage rates. Here's what each part of the formula means in more detail: MSPUS: This variable represents the median sales price of houses sold in the United States. The median sales price is the price at which half the houses sold for more and half sold for less. MORTGAGE30US: This variable represents the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the United States. A mortgage is a loan that people take out to buy a house, and the interest rate on the mortgage can affect the overall cost of the house over time. USCPI: This variable represents the United States Consumer Price Index, which is a measure of inflation. Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and it can affect the value of money over time. The formula itself is a bit complicated, but it's essentially using these variables to adjust the median sales price of houses sold in the US for inflation and the impact of mortgage rates. Here's how the formula works: 1+MORTGAGE30US/100 calculates the interest rate on the mortgage, expressed as a decimal. ^0.08333 raises this interest rate to the power of 0.08333, which represents the monthly interest rate. 1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333-1 calculates the mortgage payment factor, which is the amount by which the median sales price of houses sold needs to be adjusted based on the mortgage interest rate. 1/(1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333 calculates the present value of the mortgage payments. (1-(1/(1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333)^360) calculates the total value of all of these mortgage payments by taking the present value of each payment, summing them over the 360 months of the mortgage, and then subtracting that sum from 1. USCPI*300 adjusts the value of the expression by the consumer price index multiplied by 300, which accounts for the effects of inflation over time. MSPUS is then multiplied by the result of steps 3, 5, and 6 to calculate the adjusted median sales price of houses sold. When you put it all together, the formula is a complex expression that takes into account mortgage rates, inflation, and a value in US dollars, and calculates a value that has been adjusted by these factors, By using this formula, you can get a more accurate picture of the real cost of buying a house over time, which can help them make more informed decisions about the housing market. The formula that I worked on for weeks, finally I can put the puzzles together a chart of an ongoing real estate chart and what I provided is an economic formula that's used to adjust the median sales price of houses sold in the US for inflation and mortgage rates. Here's what each part of the formula means in more detail: MSPUS: This variable represents the median sales price of houses sold in the United States. The median sales price is the price at which half the houses sold for more and half sold for less. MORTGAGE30US: This variable represents the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the United States. A mortgage is a loan that people take out to buy a house, and the interest rate on the mortgage can affect the overall cost of the house over time. USCPI: This variable represents the United States Consumer Price Index, which is a measure of inflation . Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and it can affect the value of money over time. The formula itself is a bit complicated, but it's essentially using these variables to adjust the median sales price of houses sold in the US for inflation and the impact of mortgage rates. Here's how the formula works: 1+MORTGAGE30US/100 calculates the interest rate on the mortgage, expressed as a decimal. ^0.08333 raises this interest rate to the power of 0.08333, which represents the monthly interest rate. 1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333-1 calculates the mortgage payment factor, which is the amount by which the median sales price of houses sold needs to be adjusted based on the mortgage interest rate. 1/(1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333 calculates the present value of the mortgage payments. (1-(1/(1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333)^360) calculates the total value of all of these mortgage payments by taking the present value of each payment, summing them over the 360 months of the mortgage, and then subtracting that sum from 1. USCPI*300 adjusts the value of the expression by the consumer price index multiplied by 300, which accounts for the effects of inflation over time. MSPUS is then multiplied by the result of steps 3, 5, and 6 to calculate the adjusted median sales price of houses sold. When you put it all together, the formula is a complex expression that takes into account mortgage rates, inflation , and a value in US dollars, and calculates a value that has been adjusted by these factors, By using this formula, you can get a more accurate picture of the real cost of buying a house over time, which can help them make more informed decisions about the housing market.
FRED:MSPUS
by riestas241
2
Copper & Stocks DivergingCopper and S&P500 is making a divergence. Could this mean that we are going to be seeing weakness creep into the real estate market with Lumber and copper falling recently? SPY has tracked copper closely with the rise & fall in inflation and yields. The most used commodity in the world should provide pivotal insights into the next turn in the market. If we do enter disinflation/deflation that's typically not positive for equties despite the "soft landing" narrative.
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Trading-Capital
$VNQ: At a buy zone...This could be a substantial bottom in $VNQ here, worth monitoring at the very least. I have no position here, but tracking thee main ETFs and top 30 market cap stocks at all times, as well as my own watchlist for my long term account, and my screening tool output. Sentiment has been quite bad, and we had a rapid worsening of financial conditions for home buyers, akin to that of 1982, which is a very dramatic move, affordability wise. Let's see how this evolves, I'm thinking bond yields and mortgage rates will likely start to come down hard from here onwards as well, so naturally, Real Estate will breathe some fresh air. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:VNQLong
by IvanLabrie