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Realestate

Short Real EstateMonthly chart doesn't look that great IMO, ripe for at least aa 20% correction. ------Technicals------------ Monthly price is extended WAY above MAs, and rejected to top trendline that runs back to 2008. Lumber Prices have gone down a LOT - check LBS1! ------Macro----------- Everyone that wants to buy a home - has bought one. We are about to enter a deflationary era where high prices start to be rejected by the consumer. This fall, foreclosures and evictions may resume. Just as the housing market has absorbed all the buyers at high prices, a flood of supply will enter the market and crush prices. Demographics are NOT in favor of the market in general - Japan has been suffering this issue for 30 years. Yields are falling because demand is falling - all of the buyers have already entered the market and bought....all that is left are sellers. ------Methods----------- Best way to play a Real Estate crash is to short the market. Buy a inverse leveraged ETF like AMEX:DRV (-3x housing market) and buy. It's coming sooner or later - housing prices are cyclic and we haven't "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
AMEX:REZShort
by Baero-Trading
1
Real Estate Is Rolling OverToday we are taking a look at the Case Shiller Home Index on a year-over-year chart as well as a price chart and using basic, long-term technicals to identify issues and opportunities. I believe we are heading into a recession over the next few years but we will have to see what crazy government program is created to fight that recession that maybe boosts housing back up. Don't forget in 2009 they were printing a ton of money and it didn't save the housing market. I believe home prices on a national level will fall between 25-30% by July 2025 and July 2026. This will depend on if we get UBI, a war, or major hikes in interest rates to fight inflation. Although, I don't believe the FED can hike rates too high because we can't afford the interest on the debt then due to the short-term rollovers. Overall, I am bullish on cash flow real estate in growing areas with growing incomes that have freedom in mind. These areas are experiencing growth at a high rate but some of them are getting overheated. On a national level, I expect this all to play out over 3.5-5 years. Make sure you comment below. Argue your points with others, like, follow, and watch an ad if one pops up to support free information. It only costs you a few seconds.
ECONOMICS:USCSHPIYYLong
by DefyingFinance
The Strange Parallels Between NFTs/Metaverse and Real-EstateThere's a strange similarity in the way people trade and talk about NFT/metaverse assets and real-estate assets -- they're both measured in terms of "projected wealth", not cash. Anyone who has tried to sell a house before knows that finding a buyer isn't an instantaneous transaction -- it takes some time and planning to find someone willing to pay for it. Some people are arguing that despite cryptocurrency markets being down right now, the NFT market has largely remained untouched. Is this a bullish signal? Or is it just because we're in a holding pattern of people not wanting to lower their appraisals? Some similarities and differences between digital and analog assets (i.e. real-estate): Similarities: - Both markets are "hot" right now, but a cool-down is likely to come soon (NFTs likely to follow the dip in the general crypto markets, real-estate likely to get hurt by interest rate hikes) - The value of both NFTs and real-estate are largely "unrealized" until the actual sale - Relies on appraisals and network effects (e.g. neighborhoods, communities) to determine its value - Both assets are seen as a tool for building wealth/status Differences: - Real-estate has a better supply/demand dynamic (demand currently outpaces supply) but is largely concentrated in urban centers, which has been struggling to maintain its standards of quality and status in recent years (NFTs, on the other hand is an emerging status symbol with an uncertain trajectory) - Real-estate has limited supply but is bound by physical locations, NFTs have an unlimited (but not infinite) supply but is ubiquitous So What? There is a competition going on right now between "analog" and "digital" assets, in the fight over which is deemed more "status worthy". Whether or not an NFT is seen as "cool" or an abomination largely depends on which circles you happen to be running with. Both markets are likely to shift very rapidly in 2022 so it's important to keep tabs on which way things are moving. (Real-estate is currently losing its ground as a status symbol, whereas NFTs are gaining.) Crypto people sometimes joke that they're "NFT rich, cash poor", but there are plenty of homeowners out there right now who are drowning in mortgage and property tax payments that are in the same boat. A lot of the anti-crypto sentiments you see in public discourse seems to be originating from those demographics, currently. (It takes one to know one, after all.)
Long
by RyanTanaka
Virtual vs Real Estate (Inflation, Real-Estate, and Government)Gavin Newsom has been bragging about CA's $31B surplus this year but we know that the state has been struggling for a while now. A locked-down economy and people/jobs leaving the state will kind of do that. CA owes the Feds $21B in unemployment debt, btw. www.sacbee.com Looking at the budget closer, you'll see that they gave educational institutions a modest increase (not enough to off set the damage COVID regulations they made them follow, of course) while most essential services are actually getting massive cuts. www.ebudget.ca.gov That 66% cut in environmental protections is pretty much a slap to the face to environmentalists everywhere. (Maybe that had something to do with why Newsom "disappeared" during the climate summit last year.😂) But Big Pharma and corporate tax cuts are doing great, at least. If budgets could give the middle finger to taxpayers, this is probably as big as a flip as you could get. We had the chance to get rid of Newsom last year so guess he felt emboldened enough to double-down on the abuse. But it is what it is, I suppose. Kind of too late, now. Note that despite Newsom's claims of economic recovery, we see a huge increase in labor dev funds, for reasons that should be pretty obvious by now. They know people are leaving and employers aren't hiring so something needs to be done but they can't be honest about it. Big picture, is this really about COVID, California's labor market, or is it the beginning of the 4th Industrial Revolution, as Andrew Yang and the #YangGang forewarned? "Supply chain issues" may be masking the reality that a lot of those jobs aren't simply coming back, at all. And it seems fitting that the day this comes out, we see Jerome Powell starting to look panicked about #inflation after a year of denying that it ever existed. Deer caught in the headlights, really. It's obvious that they really have no idea what they're doing at this point. Either way, we have government loaning each other money with the Feds just printing more money to keep the states afloat on their unsustainable path. It's a house of cards ready to come crumbling down, and it's going to trickle down all the way to state and local budgets, too. Lots of people probably thought I was crazy to double-down on #crypto during these times but the more I read about this stuff I feel better about the path I took. I often feel like an outsider to traditional financial institutions but maybe that's not a bad thing, after all. There's going to be a lot of people who claim that the sky is falling but that happens at every downturn so take it with a grain of salt. But it's not all bad -- some sectors will do well so the best thing people can do is to stay focused on areas of growth. 📈 What are those areas? Crypto, #NFTs, software in general, and service sector industries that aren't beholden to supply chain issues and can adapt to new economic landscapes very quickly. The #metaverse will adjust to inflation much better than real-estate, for sure. We're due for a market correction in the USD at any given moment, anyway. Long-term, it'll be a good thing, though, since all the FOMO in Wall Street and the government has created a monster that's out of control. A crash will fix a lot of that by removing the $$. Either way, good luck, folks. Been saying a while that the next few years is going to be a roller-coaster so I hope people are prepared for anything to happen. The smarter ones have seen the writing on the wall and are planning accordingly already. 🧐
Long
by RyanTanaka
Upside Potential Outweighs DownsideSo, I nailed my last EXPI idea. Holy smokes, it went right to $27-28 and I loaded up. Now, which way does EXPI go? RE stocks will likely suck for a while longer but can EXPI really drop into the teens? That'd be borderline absurd. I think a $5B market cap is a fine resting place for EXPI for a while. I don't expect the price to drop much further...its down nearly 70% from its high. I think the price will linger around from the mid $20s to mid $30s until Spring. Then, I expect it to come back to life a little. I don't see EXPI hitting new highs in 2022 but my expectation is a rebound to at least the $40s.
NASDAQ:EXPI
by WildBill2535
Cofinimmo (COFB.br) bearish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the Belgian company Cofinimmo SA(COFB.br) at daily chart. Cofinimmo is the foremost listed Belgian real estate company specialising in rental property. The company owns a property portfolio worth over €4 billion, representing a total area of nearly 2,000,000m² spread over Belgium, The Netherlands, France, Germany and Spain. Its main investment segments are healthcare properties (nursing and care homes, revalidation clinics, psychiatric clinics, medical office buildings,...) and offices, and property of distribution networks (portfolio of pubs let to AB InBev and portfolio of insurance branches let to MAAF). The Triangle has broken through the support line on 21/12/2021, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 17 days towards 131.30 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 140.40 EUR if you decide to enter this position. Belgium-based real estate investor, Cofinimmo, has announced another round of acquisitions. It will acquire three nursing and care homes in Germany – two in Essenheim and one in Bruchmühlbach-Miesau, and plans to build a new property in Andalucia, Spain. The investment for the three sites in Germany amounts to approximately €39m. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
EURONEXT:COFBShort
by legacyFXofficial
Virtual vs Real Estate - $MANA vs US/Chinese Real-EstateIt's always been a dream of mine to have a creative space where artists, intellectuals, entrepreneurs and activists could congregate and meet. High costs of living made this impossible but we might be able to do something similar in the #metaverse, which is the next best thing. I've already seen some amazing stuff in Decentraland and Cryptovoxels despite it being very early. Very bullish on the direction the metaverse is going in right now. Once royalties and distribution of #NFTs get streamlined, there's no telling how big this thing could get. IRL, artists have already been displaced many times due to NIMBYism and a society that just can't be bothered to give creatives the decency of basic infrastructure and services. #Crypto gives a low-cost option of selling their work in ways that Web2 failed to do. So the goal of NFTs, Metaverse, and crypto-based creative projects should be to make as much cool things as possible, to draw attention away from traditional arts/entertainment venues and brick-n-mortar museums/galleries to shift demand towards these mediums over IRL ones. Real-estate prices are way overinflated right now due to decades of NIMBYism, mismanagement and corruption in the appraisal process and is waiting to pop any day now. The metaverse may be just the thing needed to accelerate that pop. This is good for most people, as a whole. Ignore the talking heads saying that a real-estate crash would hurt the poor. That type of trickle-down BS is what got us into our current situation to begin with and should be dismissed entirely. A deflated housing market will reduce rents and homelessness - it's just math. So in a way, the metaverse IS the market correction in the IRL real-estate market that we've been waiting for. Induced demand goes digital, countering the artificial scarcity of NIMBY practices in the real world, and will reach a new equilibrium of sorts after a few years. After that, it's anyone's game. But we get interesting content in the digital world while reducing rents IRL at the same time. A win-win. But my money is on $MANA, $ETH, and NFTs since they're small in size by comparison and has a lot of room to grow. That's how money is made. If you need proof, this chart showing MANA doing inversely well against the US and Chinese real-estate market right now. The US markets are printing a lot of money to keep their prices artificially high, but as inflation rises it's going to reach a point where growth will no longer be possible. And so far it's pointing in the direction that crash could result in crypto assets experiencing exponential growth as a result.
COINBASE:MANAUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
Near-Term Pain turns to Long-Term GainI think EXPI is done for the year! I image a lot of holders will sell some of their position to offset 2021 gains. I was bullish on EXPI up until recently and thought that some of the indicators would flip but there's too much negative sentiment in macro and RE specifically. I think EXPI will dip into the $20s and rebound from there. EXP is a promising company and is poaching high-performing RE talent from other brands. The company is expanding domestically and internationally and also moving into adjacent services which bode well for top-line growth.
NASDAQ:EXPI
by WildBill2535
1