GBPUSD Quarterly Bull Rally Resumes To New Monthly HighsI am currently long on this pair.
I got in earlier today during late Asian session at 1.2468 so I am already up +1R but due to TradingViews “House Rules”, I must put a later entry than this real-time post so a solid second entry would be once price breaks above todays current daily highs around 1.2489.
I am going for at least +3R but am willing to take this as far as +6R (“R” is representation of a fixed risk I take, so 1R = 1% risk).
Trailing stops will be used along the way with future updates.
The pattern that triggered me in along with the solid context was a northbound trend continuation.
The prior wave was strong and we’ve seen an acceleration in buying activity in the last 2-3 rallies up.
I will get out if price breaches 1.24548 lows because then the trend will be in conflict of either reversing or going into some extended chop.
Realtime
BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Resumes It's Bull Rally Towards 1 Year HighsI am long on Bitcoin and took a buy entry as of earlier this week. BTCUSD has been bullish and on my watchlist for the past several months but due to lots of uncertainty and choppy range bound conditions I stood out until further notice.
The pair rises on its own and I do not control market movement so I only participate when the pattern, context & triggers all align forming the ideal market condition for me to trade and now price action is displaying everything in alignment.
As of an hour ago I just moved my stop loss up to 34069.00 which is less than half my initial risk (0.5R).
I do believe that we will see 40000.00 hit before the year is over and that is my longer term target as long as momentum picks up and continues to show strength in the bull rally northbound.
I will get out at +3R target around 35860.00 if momentum shows signs of slowing.
My current trailing stop is dynamic and will be moved to break even later on in the day if we could see price reach above 37000.00 in the next 4-12 hours.
Updates will be provided below.
The link to my YouTube Technical Breakdown video explaining my exact entry & exit BEFORE this rally took off from Monday is in the link below.
You can actually see I had called this move and am not just predicting in hindsight.
Real-Time trading is what I do.
EURAUD SELLOFF FOLLOWING 09/14/2023 ECB INTEREST RATESI am not a fundamental trader but I do love when a major economic news event plays an impact on the market environment.
This entire month the markets have been very slow and choppy so I stood out of swing trades due to the whipsaw behavior.
This week has been the slowest following last weeks low movement with fed speeches on the economic calendar almost every day.
I had USDCAD shorts that actually just reached my profit target but I closed out earlier this week due to the bad conditions and missed the rest of the trade, I hope you all that followed the analysis benefitted from it more than I did.
On the technical side, I do not trade ranges unless big enough of a range so my only option for this pair was to wait for a confirmation of a breakout and trend continuation before getting active.
I now have a confirmed breakout that I am waiting on my entry to be triggered.
I gave my sell stops a little bit of room before being triggered to avoid potential whipsaws.
My entry is at daily lows below 1.6450 and I will be looking to take a +3R sell to July lows around 1.6330 but price could go lower as there are buyers stops stuck around those lows.
If my analysis is incorrect and my stop gets hit or my trade entry isn't triggered at all then this could signal further indecision in this pair or a possible bottom forming for a reversal back into the former broken range.
Conditions have been poor lately so I am shooting my shot and if this does not go as planned then I will be sitting out the rest of the month and looking for another opportunity in another pair/market.
USDCAD FALSE BREAKOUT REVERSAL BACK TO MONTHLY RANGE LOWSThis week I am looking to deploy capital depending on if the overall market outlooks becomes more favorable.
I have USDCAD on my watchlist as it has been struggling to break higher above 1.3600 for the past 3 months.
Recently, we've had a false breakout 3 times in the past month and each time bears stepped in and drove price back towards lows of 1.3500 creating a congested range.
Last week price attempted to go higher again and triggered buyers in but unfortunately that setup was invalidated and bull stops were hit.
A key indication of buyers getting weaker last week was that every new wave of the recent uptrend had less buyers preceding the major rejection on Friday 09/08.
I look to take shorts down to 1.3570 and see how it reacts around that support level and if strong selling continues I will take it down to range lows of 1.3500.
This is a potential +6R for this setup but due to the choppiness of recent price action this trade could also turn into a loss.
If my stops are hit, which is very tight, then I will be in cash and await better conditions to arise.
What I would look for if my stops are hit is a possible breakout back northbound, but I would need to see strong buying before deploying capital or we could experience more chop in which I will not be trading due to the continuation of poor market conditions.
USDJPY Counter Trend & Possible Start Of Short Term Bear MarketUSDJPY had a magnificent rally that lasted over 6-weeks.
Unfortunately, nothing last forever and trends have a short-term span.
I first noticed the pair going into a possible consolidation once it hit YTD highs and rejected it on 08/29/2023.
Price was already showing struggle to break higher from the beginning of this month and been in a 3-week consolidation.
I first look to take a short to range lows around 145.00, then will liquidate my positions and be in cash until further evidence of selling pressure is confirmed.
We could get a bounce from 145.00 support, a false breakout back to monthly highs or a possible continuation south to test monthly lows.
I am not here to predict the price moves, just going with my evidence and prepared for a possible false move against my position at any time so trailing-stop losses will be applied as the market continues in my favor for as long as the trend goes on.
My only concern is that price is struggling to break below 145.70 which is a conflicting support that I wish to see taken out in the next several hours or my sells will start to be in question.
Worst case scenario is that my entry is stopped out due to irregular market conditions and whipsaws around back to 146.50 which is the current 2-day range going on in real-time.
If that happens then I will close out my sell positions and be neutral as the market would be in the most unfavorable condition and I do not want to tie my margin into something not going as planned.
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BTC Realtime Analyse #9Hello my friends,
I'm here with BTC Realtime #9.We finished second month of BTC Realtime weakly last day and let's start third month with energy and fresh.Again i want to thanks all of you that helped me to made this idea and this page great,thanks you that trust me and walk on this path with me and thanks about all your kind comments and messages.So let's start this.
As you now we had a 1 profitable month together and now BTC stuck in a determinative situation,so i just tell you what we have in chart,instead what we have to do,in this period of time.
As you see in my main chart(what a messy chart) ,3 BTC's chart with different patterns but almost similar outlook.All these patterns are bullish patterns but this isn mean that we have not any bearish signal in chart,yeah we have and i tell you here later.
In my first chart from left you see a BTC Daily chart that contains a big inverted head and shoulder in middle of right shoulder formation,i started an idea last week that i explained there we didn't form our iH&S #2(from BTC Realtime #6),yet and we are in right shoulder forming phase of it.As you saw many thing walked on plan and my scenario till now and they made me more certain about it.I add that idea here if you want to see it.
After that we talked from 2days ago in BTC Realtime #8 about BTC triangle situation.As you see in second chart or chart bellow in triangle we have impact with price and ichumoku in 4h time frame after almost 15 days.Ichimoku cloud plays support role for BTC,still and BTC couldn't enter it yet.
But in lower time frames like 1H we entered it again but not reach below it hopefuly.In 4H we have price above all important EMAs like 50 200 1200 and 20 till now.EMA 20 plays support role till now that BTC reached below it and gonna test it as a resistance.
In 3 chart we can see a little inverted head and shoulder in that triangles that have little complex situation now.It had a chance to break neckline and confirm but failed in that attempt,now i have another hope for this little ih&s to play with two right shoulder,kind a odd head and shoulders but if you check books you can see kind of iH&S named Complex iH&S.They are very rare but exist.Or maybe we are just started right shoulder.
My scenario will play hopefully by mixing triangles with little iH&S and after that with a rally to 8600 they will complete right shoulder of bigger IH&S and BOOM,9500.But...
We have a BUT,like always.As we see in indicators like RSI and MACD we can see signs of reversal and div in them.
It's been one week that i started to talk about bearish div in RSI 4H.See chart bellow.
After that we have a reversal in RSI and MACD ,Daily time frame too.This isn't a signal that can walk away from it,easily.Need a strong support with Strength to can stay safe till indicators recover.
I don't want to be negative but it's situation that we must use a smart tight stop loss,stay tune and continue monitoring Chart.In this situation i do not advise anyone to enter or exit market,just saying to peoples that entered trade in lower steps,BE CAREFUL,we had this kind of situations in BTC before that after a break out of downward channel everyone turn happy and excited and suddenly market back in a sec.
If you want too see what will be our path after market drop,you can see chart bellow.
It will be it,without doubt,next stop will be 5100.But let's see what will happen in future and don not judge it right now,Mixed Signals means more Cautious.I believe in this sentence " Trader is not Cautious,is not Trader.He is just a bad Gambler."
So Good Luck
Like always please like this idea if you like my work and BTC Realtime weakly idea and leave me a comment to know what you think about next days.
I will update this idea like always with any sign.
BTC Realtime Analyse #7Hello all my dear friends,We are entering 7th week that this weakly idea has been started.Thanks all of you for your consideration, kindness and great messages during last weeks.
First of all i want to announce that i will not publish long term speculations in BTC Realtime ideas any more and we just analyse possibilities of short term here.I will post long term BTC analyses in another ideas.
So let's see what we have for next 7 days in chart.
As you see i have arrows in 3 colors.Black,Orange and blue.Let's look at orange arrow first.
You remember that we had 3 iH&S in BTC Realtime #6.Unfortunately we stuck in first one yet and couldn't complete right shoulder yet.Look At next week idea.
What is important is iH&S theory is still in play,even if it is a rare possibility.As you can see in chart below we can complete right shoulder and come back to game like orange arrows.
After Orange is time to look at Black arrows that have much more possibility.As you can see in chart bellow we formed a Ascending Triangle with movements of last days that is a bullish pattern.look at it,i draw it with red line.
When we zoom in more we can see that we have another triangle in it that we stuck in it from 2 days ago.
I talked about it much in last updates of BTC Realtime #6.As you can see we had many efforts to break in in both side but every time we just failed.We had fake break out in both sides too and we are near to confirm its new break up.Need to stable here above this triangle and continue moving up.
And Blue arrows.As you can see in chart bellow,maybe we have a bigger symmetrical triangle here instead of ascending triangle.
This is a continuation pattern and have much possibility to back us to downward but i want to be positive now till i find a better reasons for being negative.
We need to monitor chart now and decide what is best to do.
I will update this as soon as find a new sign,like always.Thanks for togetherness with me,Please like this idea if you enjoy my analyse style and work,don't forget to leave a comment below for me to help knowing your opinions better.
Good Luck
Peyman A
BTC Realtime Analyse #5Hello my friends,
It's another Sunday and we reach to number 5,Really happy to was with you here in last months,honestly i traded more accurate and profitable after start here as an Analyst.You always made me happy with your comments and messages.i had many messages that they said entered with me in trade and made profit with me,even in this boring market.All these made me fresh and helped me to work better.
So let's look our BTC chart for this week.
As you remember we had 2 short term bullish wedge in btc that both worked perfectly last day.Now it seems we found a bottom for BTC even temporary.Last day bounce reached BTC just under over downward channel from 10k.We have huge resistance here but we are still in a bull flag and hold this area.
As you see in my main chart i have 3 possible scenario for this week.Why 3?It's against my structure for make an analyse but believe me we are in a important area and just an idiot analyse this situation with one possibility.We are under an important resistance that push BTC down for several time and after that we have more important one that will show us Downward channel will end or not.
I have a super bullish possibility that draw with black arrow.in this scenario we break this channel and next resistance without any retrace and we bounce right from this bull flag.I said in my last BTC Realtime that i don't think this scenario have a lot chance to win,because BTC know locate in bad situation with lot uncertainly and doubt in market and we need to hold support below and by that new money back to market and we see volume again,exactly like my Blue arrows.
Blue arrows show a logical path for BTC.we drop for a little to first support area and hold there and after that we gather more trust and money and after that by a proper volume we bounce over the channel and after that again test downward channel as a support and start to climb over next resistance.I have to say it's most possible scenario in my look.
But always we have an ugly bearish possibility too,as you see in my chart i have red arrows that show you BTC drop after it can't hold first support area below it and after that BTC will try to break that resistance again but i will fail and form another ugly H&S there and move us lower to make another impact with over downward channel bottom around 5400.I mention this scenario because it's possible and honestly it have big chance to win but i don't draw that H&S now to not damage your focus.
So let's take a look to another indicators.As you remember we had a hidden bullish div in RSI and after that we made a Bottom line for RSI that hold tight.look at it:
We have a black line that show bottom and a dotted line that i think RSI will recover itself with this line if we will walk in bullish scenarios.Now we have a bearish reversal in 4HR that show us BTC need some drop like blue scenario or it can recover RSI with sideway.
In MACD we have a bullish cross over in D time frame,it's very good sign.
As i said before we are above ichimoku cloud now and it's a really bullish signal and i think we will test it soon again to enter and that will show us what is next by BTC reaction.
So it's enough for now,i will update like always with each sign or pattern i look in chart.
Thanks again for your all your kindness and togetherness.Please like this post if you like my work and BTC Realtime. Leave me your comments and opinions to show me what you think,i will answer them like always.
I have a Telegram Channel @t.me/peymana71 too that will start to work after reach 100 follower,sorry guys but i have another work to do as a Graphic Designer and i'm busy with that for 70% of my day ,and can't give telegram time, before it reach a proper number of auditions.
TELEGRAM CHANNEL : t.me/peymana71
Good Luck
Best Regards
Peyman A
BTC Realtime Analyse #3Hello all my dear friend
Thanks god and Trading View that helped me to find many friends from all around the world in last 2 month and thanks all of you for your kind messages and comments,many of you really helped me to found some signs and patterns better in last analyses.How soon we arrived here,so let's start BTC RealTime #3.
Have a great information for you,hope i think right about this.
Last week as you remember we break that huge triangle and reach our downward channel bottom that started from 10k,so many days i was so confused about that beak out, i expected more fall after break out of that triangle until i discovered maybe that wasn't a TRIANGLE at all.Maybe this is a Descending Triangle.if that is correct then all things come logical.we can continue this wedge to our long term yellow channel(from 2015) bottom then bounce up the wedge and ... .
So let's take a look to this wedge.
First this is not a single wedge,we have 2 wedge here,first one from $20k and second one from $12.8k in Feb.so i attach them here :
First one:
And then second one:
now take a look at both of them to find out exactly how they finish this bear market together:
What here is matter that all of these are just a possibility and with this weakness that we saw in last days it's have lot chance to move us much lower and this idea failed or you need to understand this fact that maybe sooner we break first wedge and continue market by second wedge.If it happen then we see another Great DEC,soon.
So it's enough long term expectation,forget it now and let's back to our BTC RealTime and short term analyse.
As i said in my last BTC RealTime,after a sharp fall in our downward channel(can't say it parallel channel) from 10k we had a little bounce that was a weak one,but by that bounce we made a symmetrical triangle.I explained it last day but i say again.
This kind of triangles are usually continuation pattern but we had situations that this triangles made a reversal and changed trend but can't count on it.Beside,this kind of formations usually take few month to complete and are long term formations.
On the other side we have lot mix signs in MACD and RSI.in MACD you can see bearish reversal sign in 4HR but in RSI you can find signs that show regular bearish div and little hidden bullish div ,together.yeah all of those make me confused and i try to monitor more rather that talk about them.But what is important and clear is lack of Volume on both side that caused all market uncertainly and all uncertainly in market caused this low vol situation.Last day we even had a Perfect H&S but it failed and we hold our support yet.but for sure if we don't see enough money in market we will drop again to last support.All of these caused to i think more about this triangle but as a Pennant that will push us lower eventually.but if BTC want to hold value of that LONG TERM Wedge i mentioned in first of this TA,need to avoid of sharp falling bellow 5900.
I made a TELEGRAM channel after your many requests about it,finally.but what you need to know is that i am little busy and i will publish TAs there just after channel reach to 100 follower,you can join it from this link ,below:
t.me/peymana71
I will update this like always as soon as i find new sign.I want to thank all of you again for your supports and togetherness.Please leave a Like and Comment for me,if you like my work and idea.
Best Regards
Peyman A
"BTC Realtime Analyse #2"Hi guys and welcome to my new BTC Realtime.
Again here i want to thanks all of you for your kind messages and comments on my last idea,many of you send me message that i helped you and aware them of this falling,many of them even short btc by my call.i see everyday many friends join us here and they really liked what we do here and i answer almost 20 message in day and i loved too. because of these i decided to do this more professional and regular and publish new "BTC RealTime" every Sunday and update every idea like what i done until now.As you my friend wants before i made a Telegram Channel that add here soon.
So back to the Great BTC(powerless now),as we saw in two last week btc almost do a little wave up and again failed to hold new trend line and continue dropping more.one of the main reasons that btc could't hold that stage was lack of enough Volume to confirm those broken resistances and we didn't saw volume just because of psychological issues and lack of trust in market.After a 3 H&S we reach this point that make our yellow scenario fresh again,so what was yellow scenario?
For those that didn't read our last ideas i open it briefly.Yellow scenario say that we started a Parallel Channel since 2015 and after Dec 2017 parabolic rise we made a roof for that channel,now we need to touch or close to its bottom again around 3300-5000.we made a huge triangle since near 4 month ago that was a bearish one that we believed we may drop out soon and go closer to our target by that.now we drop out of it but not much yet.
So now in my new chart you see 2 other Parallel channel in the huge yellow one,we can reach to bottom of yellow channel by those two smaller channel that is a great fib retracment lvl, or again by another flash drop that will make whole market crazy and after that we will break that channel too and HELL.but i draw 2 dotted line that make for btc double bottom and are potential reversal spots.
One week ago i posted a MACD chart,this one:
and now we are here,it's another prove that we can gow lower easy.
In Rsi we reach again to oversold are and it's have more room to go lower.
And now,after we arrived to 6600 area we did a small bounce that was really too little for last flash drop from 7600,but now we try to recover indicators and if we don't see a meaningful bounce we will go lower again but i think we see another bounce here.first target is 6400 area,that was a great support last time and i expect a real war to break that one.after that we have room till 5980.in the other side if btc can hold this lvl for a while we can reach 7200 easy for first step.but now we just need to see what signs we have.
i will update as soon as find a new sign.
Good Luck