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Rebound

Has this endless downtrend found its bottom?SIMPLE REBOUND STORY? Inexpensive stock (P/BV=0.75) bullish consensus (BUY) and 25% target upside. Has found a gently up-sloping channel since Feb 2016. Currently trading at the bottom of channel. Shows technical signs of turnaround. Has rebounded less than the market. Seems to have found a floor at $28. PLAIN VANILLA LONG STRATEGY Buy at the market. Target $34.50/share. Stop-loss $28.00/share. Reward/Risk = 2x CREDIT OPTIONS STRATEGY Buy Dec 16 2016 $31 call = $0.55/share Sell Dec 16 2016 $27 put = $0.60/share Credit = $0.05/share Worst-case: Go long at the low of the up-channel and 8% above the 52w low (indicative prices, ref. last close)
LLong
by HAL9000
Take advantage of volatility spike: Sell puts.FUNDAMENTALLY COMPELLING BUY rated by the consensus +47% average target upside Morningstar rating * * * * TECHNICALLY: COULD BE REBOUNDING SOON? GG is down 35% since the intermediate top above $20 reached in early July This is 2.5X more than the consolidation in Gold (-13.74% since July) Such negative performance has brought a spike in volatility The stock has also just completed a perfect rounding top It has also been forming a consolidation base at 12.65 Too early to buy outright, as the direction in Gold needs confirmation However... ...OPTIONS STRATEGY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF VOLATILITY: SELL (SHORT-DATED) OTM PUTS FOR AGGRESSIVE TRADERS Sell 16Dec16 $13 put at $0.32/share (indicative) for a yield of 2.38% (54.32% annualized) FOR MORE RISK AVERSE INVESTORS Sell 21Apr17 $12 put at $0.79/share (indicative) for a yield of 5.88% (15.11% annualized)
G
by HAL9000
Investment Managers Should Catch Up.Blackstone Group is back towards the bottom of the gentle up-channel started in 2009 (see weekly chart below). Rebounded off a double-bottom on the daily chart in good volume, but not as much as the rest of the financials. Similar story to another, smaller asset manager highlighted recently (please check LM idea). 1. Buy here with target 28.50 and stop 23.50 for a RR of 1.83x 2. Buy here with target 32.00 and stop 22.30 for a RR of 2.28x 3. Buy Jan 16'17 28.00 call at 0.32 and sell same maturity 23.00 put at 0.45
NYSE:BXLong
by HAL9000
A lot of bad news in the price: Get exposed.This thread takes over from the previous one: "Oversold: Buy the dip." BAD NEWS OUT OF THE WAY? The stock was demolished after disappointing earnings and the drone debacle. This lead many analysts to downgrade it (current consensus rating = HOLD) with an estimated average target price at the current money. There currently seems to be a lot of bad news in stock. Short levels have also sky-rocketed recently. CROOKED H&S OUT OF THE WAY During this debacle, GPRO completed a somewhat crooked head & shoulders formation and the stock retraced back 55% of the distance from the top of the head to the neckline. It currently looks like it stabilizing in a flat consolidation channel / new trading range. WHERE TO NOW? Expecting the stock to take the same time to rebound as it did to complete the H&S - 3 months. Expecting limited downside from here, although more disappointments or a rough market could take it below the historical low, towards the 8.00 level. THREE TRADING STRATEGIES 1. Outright Long Buy here and hold for a breakout above 11.35. Stop loss at 9.75, as trading at/below that level would invalidate the rebound. 2. Synthetic long only Pay $0.43/share for a call option expiring on Jan 20'17 to purchase the shares at $12. 3. Costless options strategy Buy the Jan 20'17 $12 call at $0.43/share and pair it with same maturity $8 put at the same price. $8/share is a good place to go long if the stock continues to slide because: a) it represents a 90% completion of the H$S formation target, b) it is 7% below the historical low, and c) that level would probably spark take-over discussions to pull the stock back up... Trade safely.
NASDAQ:GPROLong
by HAL9000
Oil Long: Finally ExhaustionAs I expected, but wrong in terms of timing, oil is seeing an exhaustion in its downwards movement. Yesterday was the DCL according to Time Cycles . Additionally the Stochastics RSI looks dangerously oversold, which leads me to believe that the reversal to the upside will be very rapid. I expect the first selling zone to be $47-46.40 (blue rectangle). From there we should continue downards, as the long term sentiment for oil is very bearish. The MACD is reversing as well , but I expect it to follow a similar pattern as it did 2015-11-16 to 2016-01-18. Finally very crucial to how rapidly Oil will rebound to the first selling zone is: Wether Clinton or Trump will be elected. As wikileaks proved, Clinton has good relations with the Saudi, or at least she accepts their money in exchange for favours and thus a Clinton President will help oil rebound. API and EIA data NYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:CL2!
TVC:USOILLong
by BigCharts
DAX Back At Breakout Level - Worth A LongOur favorite European Index, the German DAX, escaped the bear market in early August, when it rebounded swiftly after initially rejecting mega-resistance at 10475-485, which it then took out very aggressively. This Monday sent a bearish shooting star candle on overbought conditions, calling for a healthy pullback. As securities often do, they retrace back to breakout levels. Today's session did exactly that and rebounded right at 10490, the former year highs. Daily oscillators aren't bottoming yet, and today's candle isn't really as attractive, as I would like to have it, I would risk a long, given the bullish long-term backdrop. Target at 10800 - Stop at 10450. Best,
INDEX:DEU40Long
by gorillacharts
Bet on the support reboundThis trade aims at the short-term rebound from the historical low. Since June 07, short-sellers initiated a selling force to test JD's the 52-week low. The price was driven down,but no volume followed. However, when the price was reaching the 52-week low, there are people collecting the dimes, on June 16. Maybe the short-sellers were covering here. I think it is a good bet on a short-term rebound. Here is my plan: 1. Stop Loss at 19. 2. Profit taking at 23 or Time Exit in 5 days.
NASDAQ:JDLong
by cwho2090
Can the corrective down trend be over already?An attempt of application of Elliot wave theory with fibonacci extension levels seems to indicate the end of a full impulse and correction wave cycle. The 5th wave in this proposition is viewed as an ascending triangle with a break to the downside. The recent rally from support at 11669 could be a reversal in formation, and the start of a range bound movement. Next weeks fed talk and economic data will certainly determine whether this rally has legs. In support of the rally theory we could bring the bounce on the 0.382 retracement level from the previous major rally, which indicates a continuation, rather than a reversal. The alternative could be a continuation of the current downtrend after a resistance at the very strong 11850 current level. Short term target: 11900, which if broken could open the way to the 12000 area which is a strong confluent and psychological level.
FX:USDOLLAR
by LotsOfLore
Short Petrobras based on an unsustainable rallyFundamentals Petrobras has seen an 80% rally through March, which is unsustainable. The reason for this is because the rally is based on the possible [ impeachment of president Dilma Rousseff, whose policies adversely affected the Brazilian oil market. While this is good news for the Brazilian oil company, the fundamentals of the company simply do not fit with such a rally. It still has the largest debt level in the entire oil industry at about £75 billion; it will continue to have legal costs incurred from a corruption scandal; oil prices are still too low to be strongly profitable, and in my opinion will move lower to about $30, which will further fuel this rally to be pared. Technicals The stock price has hit a very strong level of resistance in the 4.50 and 4.75 price range, as indicated by the horizontal black lines, and is likely to rebound off this. There has also been very strong bearish divergence on the RSI, which is all indicated by the thin black arrows.
NYSE:PBR.AShort
by olly_price
Crude: Bottom Is In; Rebound Has BegunFour months ago I posted a weekly chart in crude, with a clear message to all short term traders out there: STAY AWAY. I also said that crude will present itself with an excellent buying opportunity in the future. I believe that time is now. Many chartists have recognized the similarity from the 08-09 selloff to the selloff seen in 14-15. It is too obvious to ignore. Based off price action from the 08-09 meltdown, I wanted to see "2-3 months of consolidation" before looking to take any long position in oil. We have seen that consolidation occur from January-March forming a nice base for crude to rebound from. After rebounding from $42 to $57, oil has taken a breather. This is what I would expect to see before advancing higher. Ideally I would like to see oil hold support over $50. From there oil can make its next run up to the 68-75 range. I will soon post a chart delving deeper into details about a possible trade with oil. I will discuss entry points, stops, targets and timeframes.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Ape
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