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Recession

What to watch in Q21. Any more bank failure? Bank crisis stabilized after UBS takeover Credit Suisse and First Republic Bank had been injected deposit to restore confidence. We can’t rule out any bank failure in Q2, especially the collapse of Lehman Brother was after the rescue of Bear Stearns. Having said that, the material different between now and the global financial crisis is the asset quality, that the subprime loan is basically at default while the long-term treasury and MBS many banks are holding now can recoup the floating loss if they can be held until maturity. Situation will improve with time. The drop of treasury yield because of risk aversion is also a self-cure mechanism that reduce the floating loss, and lower depositor’s incentive to move money out from banking system. Therefore, the level of Treasure yield is an important factor to determine whether a bank run might occur again, since higher yield means bigger deposit outflow to seek better yield return and a bigger loss of bank asset. The resurge of yield will worsen the sentiment and dampen confidence. Another good indictor is the size of emergency funding facilitates that Fed is providing to banks. If there is a sudden increase on the size, this could imply there might be another bank in trouble. 2. How lending be impacted after the bank crisis? Although Fed set the policy rate, it is the Bank to lend money in a rate they desire to the business and individual. In order to improve and avoid further deterioration of asset quality, Bank might take a more conversative approach in lending. The outflow of deposit also reduced Bank’s ability and willingness to lend. Since FDIC is asking Banks to pay the bill for saving SVC and Signature Bank, together with US government is seeking a tighter regulation for banking sector and many bank need to increase deposit rate to keep deposit, higher capital/operating cost might make Bank more selective and ask for higher lending rate to compensate the cost, that is not good for the whole economy. 3. Inflation trend? Even OPEC+ surprised the market by cutting production that boost price, Energy should still strongly pressure headline inflation downward in Q2, especially on a YOY basis. NYMEX WTI crude oil above $100 most of the time in Q2 2022 and reached $123. Compare to current energy price, there will be an obvious negative impact in headline inflation. The delayed effect of lower property price and rent should also drive the inflation lower. We have seen some signs of lower service inflation, and if banking crisis harm business confidence, we might see a less tight employment market and a less wages growth. Despite OPEC+ action might make thing a little bit complicated, we might still see some decent drop in inflation in Q2. 4. Fed to end hiking cycle after May’s meeting? May could be the last hike in this cycle. As mentioned, the inflation is cooling down and bank crisis will hurt the economy. Fed will also avoid hiking rate too much that will drive the Treasury yield up that might refuel the bank crisis. February Core PCE is trending lower, so as long as inflation doesn’t accelerate, a full stop of hiking cycle after May’s meeting will be a reasonable bet. 5. Recession possibility? Inverted yield curve and ISM survey pointed to recession. Q2 could be the turning point of economy growth and we might see some slowdown. Recession has become base case scenario to many investors and they will allocate their asset and conduct trading strategy accordingly. If inflation under control and GDP growth, probably in Q3, recorded a deeper-than-expected negative growth, Fed might start easing by the end of this year. 6. End of War? Russia-Ukraine war could enter the decisive phase in Q2 when Ukraine could launch the counter attack in Spring. It is very hard to predict the outcome but assuming Russia lost the war, the geopolitical ecosystem might be rewritten as well as the regime. How ally of Russia react is also highly unpredictable. With interest rate hike cycle coming to the end, there might be more rooms for Treasury yield to go lower. This will benefit growth stock so Nasdaq might outperform Dow again, adding to the gap built in Q1. Recession fears is not friendly to most of the commodities (except gold), and any big change on War might mean a lot to many cyclical commodities such as oil, natural gas, nickel and more. Good Luck and Good Trading in Q2. Disclaimers Above information are for illustration only and there is no guarantee on the accuracy of the information. They should not be treated as investment recommendations or advices. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com gopro/
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by FOTrading
1
USA is in serious troubleChina , India, Russia, Iran , Saudi Arabia and Brazil made an agreement contract to ditch U.S. dollar; the United States are in serious trouble.. If other country are joining with them then it will be the End of United States and Biden needs to do something about it and how US will react to it and it won’t end well. More banks are collapsing and more rumors said that US are running out of money. Will the USA will declare war against China ? World War 3 is getting closer. China and Russia became the most dangerous alliance.
N
by JoyBoyVegae
2
S&P 500| SHORT INCOMING | DECRYPTERS Hi people welcome to Team Decrypters POTENTIAL SHORT SETUP We Expecting short term Retracement At least ( orange path) Long term Target ( yellow path could be followed ) FED has cleared they will Keep Rate hikes ELEVATED for long time , Markets are pricing in Future Rate cuts i don't think there will be ANY RATE CUTS ,probably 1 more Rate hike and than pause and than keep the RATE HIKES Stay There. People will Start to spend Less This will Surely cause RECESSIONARY ENVIOREMENT Which will cause Earnings to DROPS , Meaning Companies EVALUATION will DROP Markets Can even CRASH IN MY OPINION ( circumstances can change later but for not it SEEMS) NOTE :- NASDAQ PREVIOUS CHART linked so in short Nasdaq will Follow S&P 500 Same things Apply for NASDAQ
SP:SPXShort
by DECRYPTERS
1
Brace yourself, recession is comingThe US Treasury Yield Curve is currently inverted, meaning short term interest rates higher than long term interest rates. This unusual occurrence, called a yield curve inversion, has historically been a very reliable indicator of an upcoming economic recession. Since World War II every yield curve inversion has been followed by a recession in the following 6-18 months, and recessions are naturally correlated with decreased stock market returns. The yield curve has not been this high in over 40 years. Recession is coming HARD. Read: www.currentmarketvaluation.com
NASDAQ:NDX
by CuzinSam
XAG/USD (1W) Silver could be crisis leading indicatorHello Traders, investors and speculators :) After some time, I have to share chart of silver again. You can see that Silver is approaching and testing most important resistance zone and down trending channel. After breaking the yellow channel, it could confirm growth trend for higher highs. If Silver can break above 30 USD, it would be a significant recession signal. If so, Silver could be first leading recession indicator. It could grow before the Gold and rise steeper. Let me know what's your opinion about this specific setup or if you already entered some position ? Trade and invest safe, something big is coming...
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by LongevityContrarian
2
Inflation and Business Cycle: What will happen next?Inflation has been rising aggressively since 2021. It accelerated from 2% to hit an all-time high of 9.1% in June 2022. As inflation rose, central banks like the Fed raised interest rates to control inflation . But this effort to control inflation, on one hand made money more expensive for the industries and on the other hand pushed consumers to reduce their spendings. Many economists had already predicted rising inflation and its impeding worst impact on the global economy and stock markets. Still, there are fears everywhere that bear markets could persist and even a further decline is likely. Here the basic question arises that must be understood: WHAT IS INFLATION & WHY DOES IT OCCUR? In fact, inflation occurs whenever demand for goods and services increases while supply remains constrained. Growth is everyone's dream... To capitalize on this aspiration, banks provide cash at low interest rates to support growth, but unfortunately this cash is used by people to buy luxuries like cars, electronics and homes. Cars need fuel and metals, electronics need high R&D spending and skilled human capital, and houses need building materials. Pressure on luxury items leads to price increases. Technically speaking, when demand accelerates faster than supply, it has a net effect on price. This phenomenon is referred to as the law of demand, which states: "If more people want to buy something, when there is limited supply, the price of that thing will be higher." (The same law of demand applies in the stock market: as demand for stocks increases, their price increases.) After Covid-19, global demand for goods and services began to normalize (increase). But to boost growth, which had been severely hampered in Covid times, banks made easy loans available at attractive interest rates. The resulting increase in the supply of money in the markets stimulated consumer spending. Ideally, if growth had been at a sustained pace and in the productive sectors, inflation would not have occurred. But that never happens - a phenomenon that creates the business cycle. A business cycle has phases of expansion and contraction. We are currently in the contraction phase of the business cycle - inflation is still high, interest rates and yields are unbearable, and industrial performance has declined. WHAT WOULD HAPPEN NEXT? - Unbearable prices will force consumers to reduce their spending/demand - High interest rates and reduced demand will reduce industry revenues and profits - Equity markets will continue to show poor performance But good times will come again! When the market bottoms out in the business cycle, expansion begins. This will be an ideal time to invest in growth and value stocks.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by starringinvestors
Bottom found for bitcoin Final too I see and expect 30-35K at least for a long drop. Feds are still raising interest rates but will do 1 more in May. The economy are feeling the pressure of the inflation but very shaky; Unemployment is nearly almost 5 percent but might expect to hit 10 percent as the recession are coming hard landing; something bigger going to break but buy Bitcoin Wisely, choice hard to sell the high and buy new entry with big money until bitcoin hits the bottom. Russia and China teamed up in Ukraine even Belarus just made a nuclear threat.. World War 3 will start soon and big feeling Putin will start it off using nuclear weapons. Wonder what will happens next it is coming closer than we think will be. Now the news out of the way .. bitcoin is near at the resistance if it breaks out it will not go fully as we speak because the Feds still needs to finish the job to bring the inflation down. Bitcoin has to hit 30-35K in order to complete the correction and will expect Zig-Zag bearish structure and sideways consolidation; * HINT,HINT* bitcoin will forcefully collapse to drop down into a recession. Bitcoin bull run won’t start until 2024 and until also Feds finish the job. Bitcoin halving takes place in 2024 of April. Short buys and sells will still on a go ; trade safe and economy isn’t really in a good shape.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
2
Visualizing the Current Market in Relation to Past RecessionsIt is helpful to view past recession trajectories to get a visual idea of where we are at the moment. I chose the recessions which were most relevant to today's market conditions. The 01 (purple) and 08-09 (dark blue) recessions were the first "modern" recessions where MMT was being implemented and tech made up a significant chunk of the market. The 70 (reddish brown) and 73-75 (green) recessions were the first stagflation recessions of the 70s. Finally, the Great Depression (light blue) is shown as a worst case scenario. If this current period mirrors history, a bounce or sideways movement through the rest of 2022 wouldn't be surprising. While a depression trajectory is possible, I don't believe it is most likely at this point.
SP:SPX
by Cryptogold14
2
BTCUSD looking to head for BTC$80000+ on MN timeframeGood day traders, There are several reasons why Bitcoin is expected to reach $80,000 in the next 6 to 9 months. Firstly, Bitcoin has been experiencing a surge in demand from institutional investors, who are increasingly recognizing the potential of Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against inflation. This has led to a significant increase in Bitcoin purchases from institutional investors, which is expected to drive up the price of Bitcoin in the coming months. Secondly, the recent halving of Bitcoin has reduced the supply of new Bitcoins that are being added to the market. This means that there is less Bitcoin available to be purchased, which is expected to drive up the price of Bitcoin as demand for the cryptocurrency continues to increase. Finally, the ongoing economic uncertainty caused by the the silicon valley bank crash's has led to increased interest in Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. As governments around the world continue to fight this falling economy, investors are increasingly turning to Bitcoin as a way to protect their wealth and hedge against inflation. This increased demand for Bitcoin is expected to drive up the price of the cryptocurrency in the coming months, potentially pushing it to $80,000 or higher. Lets have a look at the analysis: What we see from the technical analysis is that we've spotted an ABCD harmonic trendhike forming, we recently beat our local resistance (marked R1) and we anticipate BTCUSD to meet our R2 sooner than later. This is a great time to buy BTCUSD seeing that the pprice is still fairly low and promises to meet figures above $100K by the end of this year. Please share your thoughts. Disclaimer NASDAQ Guru offers general trading signals that does not take into consideration your own trading experiences, personal objectives and goals, financial means, or risk tolerance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mezzoforte_Privilege
Brace for volatility as inflation meets recession2023 has been ushered in with a rebound in pockets of equity underperformance from 2022. Markets are coming to terms with the fact that stickier inflation and more resilient economic data globally are likely to keep central banks busy this year. Owing to which the spectre of interest rates staying higher for longer appears to be the dominant theme for the first half of 2023. Global money market curves are re-pricing higher to reflect the tighter monetary scenario. For the Federal Reserve (Fed), markets have priced in a 5.5% terminal rate, somewhat higher than was suggested by the median dot plot back in December. While in Europe, 160Bps of additional rate hikes are being priced for the European Central Bank (ECB) with terminal rate forecasts approaching 4%. The speculative frenzy witnessed since the start of 2023, indicates that equity markets are discounting the fact that the global economy has not faced such an aggressive pace of tightening in more than a decade and the ramifications, although lagged, will eventually be felt across risk assets. Preference for international vs US equities Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows since the start of 2023 resonate investors’ preferences to diversify their portfolios with a higher allocation to international markets versus the US. Since the start of 2023, international equity market ETFs have received the lion’s share of inflows, amounting to US$20.6bn in sharp contrast to US equity ETFs that suffered US$9.3bn in outflows. Looking back over the past decade, US companies outpaced international stocks owing to two main drivers of equity price appreciation: earnings and valuation. Earnings remain the key driver for equity markets over the long term. If we try to think about what lies ahead, we can see that earnings revision estimates are displaying a marked turnaround for China, Japan, and Emerging Markets (EM), whilst the US and Europe are poised to see further earnings contractions. China’s recovery remains the important swing factor that could enable its economy, alongside EM and Japan, to outperform global equities in 2023. At 8% of sales, Europe has the second highest exposure after Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan) to China. Yet it’s important to bear in mind that European companies earn twice the amount of revenue from the US than from China. So, a soft landing in the US will be vital for Europe to continue its cyclical rally. US valuations remain high vs international developed and EM equities US equity market valuations from a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remain high globally, whilst Japan continues to trade at a steep 29% discount to its 15-year average. Amidst the recent rally, European valuations at a 13.7x P/E ratio remain at a 14% discount to its 15-year average. That being said, three months ago European equity valuations were trading at a 35% discount to its 15-year average. After travelling half the distance to their long-term average, European valuations might have to contend with the headwinds of tighter monetary policy. Evident from the chart above, international markets ex-US continue to boast of favourable valuations allowing for a higher margin of safety, which is why we expect investor positioning to tilt in favour of international markets ex-US over the course of 2023. The battle between Energy and Technology stocks The Energy sector is coming off a strong year, as tight supplies and rising demand drove energy prices higher in 2022. While these dynamics have failed to play out so far in 2023, owing to the speculative frenzy in riskier parts of the market, we expect earnings results for energy companies, and their stock performance across the spectrum (including oil, gas, refining and services), to maintain momentum in 2023. Whilst investment in oil and gas production has been rising, it will still take multiple years for global supply to meet demand, which continues to support the narrative of higher energy prices. Refining capacity continues to look tight this year, given the reduced capacity and long lead time required to bring new capacity online. We expect this to support another strong year for the profitability of refining operators. At the same time, energy service companies should also benefit as spending on exploration and production continues to gather steam. The biggest risk to the sector remains if demand for energy falters in the face of a severe recession. However, as we expect most economies to face a modest recession, this risk is less likely for the Energy sector. Meanwhile, higher interest rates were the key driver of the underperformance of the Technology sector last year. We continue to see weakness in the Technology sector amidst rising risks of peak globalisation, weaker earnings, and the potential for more regulation. Despite the recent layoff announcements by technology firms, they still appear inflated, with employee growth in recent years 20% too high relative to real sales growth. The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated the demand in software and technology spending with the rise of remote work and social distancing. However, companies today are more likely to cut their technology spending to offset the higher costs of energy, travel, wages, and other factors. The key risk, in our view, remains that valuations have come down, and if rates do begin to peak, selective technology companies could benefit from the growth generated by their cost-cutting initiatives. Value vs Growth in 2023 Value stocks tend to be positively correlated with higher inflation. In 2022, high inflation was a result of rising commodity prices, labour shortages, and fiscal stimulus provided by Western economies, whilst Growth stocks were penalised for their lofty valuations. Value-based stocks flourished on commodity supply constraints and cheaper valuations amidst a rising rate environment. Much of this is now priced into Value stocks. Most Value stocks’ earnings growth and valuation re-ratings rely on higher commodity prices or interest rates or a factor outside of their control. Owing to this, we still believe there are opportunities where constrained supply in the absence of falling demand will continue to support higher prices. There are significant prospects in Europe and Asia where discounts remain wide and sizeable valuation gaps exist across sectors. Europe’s energy sector accounted for two-thirds of Europe’s EPS (earnings per share) growth in 2022. The continuing trend of capital discipline, resilient earnings, and high shareholder returns should keep attracting flows into the sector in 2023. We expect Value stocks to be in better shape to withstand the global economic slowdown. Historically, the Value factor has demonstrated resilience during periods of interest rate volatility. Conclusion There is considerable uncertainty about how 2023 will unfold. As the key focus moves from inflation to a recession in 2023, it opens up the possibility of several outcomes for central banks and interest rates. Keeping this in mind, 2023 may well be a tale of two halves, with higher interest rates in the first half, followed by lower rates in the second half as a global recession takes centre stage.
ICEUS:MWL1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
THE CRASH IS HEREThe S&P 500 has attempted a bullish break out in January 2023. The price stalled and started ranging right above previous resistance trend line. Today we see major sell pressure. If we close under temporary support line on my daily chart then we will see the stock market form it's next leg in a downtrend. This will be the longest leg downward. When price fails to breakout it tends to pull back harder and faster than it rallied. Kind of like a rubber band. You can stretch the rubber band upward but as soon as you let go of the rubber band. The opposite force of the rubber band will snap back faster and harder. On the chart, you'll see some green trend lines to where I project price of SPY will land. You can say it's a possible pivot point but honestly I really see the chart hitting 200's before we continue the next future bull cycle. See you guys in summer 2024 when the bulls return! Happy Trading.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Trebor_Namor
4
SVB: Understanding and Managing Interest Rate Risks CBOT: 10-Year Treasury Futures ( CBOT:ZN1! ) Last Wednesday, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) NASDAQ:SIVB announced that it incurred $1.8 billion loss in the sales of its bond portfolio and sought to issue new shares. Within 48 hours, a bank-run induced by panic customers brought down the legendary bank. On Friday, US banking regulators seized control of SVB. By Sunday, the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve, and Federal Depository Insurance Corporation (FDIC) jointly announced a rescue plan that would make whole all depositors. However, SVB shareholders are not protected. Why has happened to the well-respected and once well-capitalized bank? Opportunity and Risk Go Side-by-Side Traditional banks seldom extend credit to startups, which are mostly under-collateralized, with little or no profit and big uncertainties about their future survival. SVB developed a niche competitive edge to provide banking services to companies funded by venture capitals. In the past 40 years, it nurtured many high-profiled tech startups through their entire life cycle, from early-stage to IPO and to Big-Tech giants. If Sequoia Capital invested in your firm and you apply for a loan from a commercial bank, you can expect the loan officer to ask: “Sequoia Who?” But if you go to SVB, they would say: “$10 million will be in your account tomorrow.” VCs are exceptionally good at spotting future technological trends, and they follow a rigorous due diligence process to pick investing targets. By working with VCs and startups closely, SVB created an ecosystem that foster technological innovations, and grew to become the 16th largest US bank by deposit. However, SVB’s concentration in the high-tech sector also make it vulnerable to a boom-and-bust cycle. Last year, bear market hit the industry hard. Publicly traded firms couldn’t raise money with falling share prices. Private companies found the path to IPO got blocked. As startup clients withdrew deposits to keep their companies afloat, SVB is short on capital. It was forced to sell most available-for-sale bonds at a huge loss. Bad news travelled fast in close-knit tech investing community. VCs urged their portfolio companies to get the hack out of SVB. All told, customers withdrew a staggering $42 billion of deposits on Thursday. By the close of business day, SVB had a negative cash balance of $958 million, according to the filing, and this triggered the government takeover. A Commercial Bank with a Failing Grade In fiscal year 2022, SVB earned $4.5 billion in Net Interest Income (NII) and $1.7 billion in non-interest income. When you take away the bells and whistles, SVB is by large a commercial bank. About 73% of its revenue comes from taking in deposits at a low interest rate and making loans at a higher interest rate. Based on its 2022 10K filing, SVB managed $209.2 billion in total interest-bearing asset and earned $5.7 billion. This represented an effective yield of 2.73%. During the same period, SVB paid out $1.2 billion in funding cost, which equated to 0.57%. • Therefore, in 2022, its NII = 2.73% - 0.57% = 2.16% • In comparison, its NII for year 2021 was 2.02% (=2.09% - 0.07%). • On the surface, SVB was doing well, with NII spread increasing by 14 basis points year-over-year. What has gone wrong then? Dive deeper into SVB’s balance sheet, we see the long-dated Treasury bonds and illiquid mortgage-backed securities it held got hammered by the rising interest rates. Simply put, SVB got its interest payment back, but the value of its investment principal eroded in a huge way in a rate-hiking environment. All in all, managing interest rate risk is at the core of banking business. A Naked Bond Portfolio In its 10K, SVB puts its investment portfolio in Available-For-Sales (AFS), Held-To-Maturity (HTM) and Non-marketable securities categories. AFS balance was $26.1 billion as of December 31st, including: • U.S. Treasury securities $ 16,135m (61.9%) • Agency-issued MBS $6,603m (25.3%) • Agency-issued CMBS $1,464m (5.6%) • Foreign government debt securities $1,088m (4.2%) • Agency-issued CMO—fixed rate $678m (2.6%) • U.S. agency debentures $101m (0.4%) • Total AFS securities $26,069m (100%) Last week, SVB sold $21 billion in the AFS portfolio and incurred a loss of $1.8 billion, or -8.6%. AFS assets are marked to market every quarter. My understanding is that the loss figure was based on selling price vs. year-end fair market value. Total loss calculated from purchasing price could be much bigger, as these bonds may have been marked down multiple times during previous quarters. Evidence: Since March 2022, CBOT 10-Year Treasury Futures (ZN) price went down from 124 to 109 (-12%) and 30-Year Treasury Bond (ZB) fell from 152 to 118 (-22%). CBOT Treasury futures market, with its sheer size and liquidity, makes it the marketplace of choice to manage interest risk in times of uncertainties. Each ZN contract has a notional value of $100,000. • On Monday March 13th, daily trading volume is 3,760,911 lots, which translates into total notional of $376 billion. Open interest (OI) stands at 4,311,338, or $431 billion in notional. • Volume and OI for ZB are 719,518 and 1,209,881, respectively. Notional value for each is $72 billion and $121 billion, respectively. What’s Next On Friday, Signature Bank customers spooked by the SVB collapse withdrew $10 billion. That quickly led to the bank failure. Regulators announced Sunday that Signature was being taken over to protect its depositors and the stability of the U.S. financial system. Despite government intervention over the weekend, fear ran contagious through the financial industry this Monday. San Francisco’s First Republic Bank, which had $212 billion in assets at the end of 2022, saw its stock price plunge as much as 70% when the market opened Monday morning. By market close, US stock market stabilized. Investors wonder if a banking crisis could be the final punch to end the year-long Fed rate hikes. Lessons Learnt As investors, we usually allocate our financial assets across various instruments, such as stocks, bonds, and derivatives. The 60 (stock) / 40 (bond) portfolio is the most popular advice from Wall Street. People generally pay more attention to what stocks to buy and hold, but we may not think twice about managing interest risk in a rising rate environment. The SVB fallout shows that even the safest, risk-free Treasury bonds, if not actively managed, could fall prey to interest rate changes and liquidity risk, resulting in loss of market value. For me, this is a wake-up call and a good time to review my bond holdings. Some may be hidden in a 401K retirement plan. Hedging interest rate risk with CBOT Treasury futures and Micro Yield futures could go a long way to stay solvent. A View on Interest Rate Trajectory Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the consumer price index rose 0.4% in February and 6% from a year ago, in line with market expectations. This is the most recent data the Fed will consider before it makes interest decision on March 22nd. Inflation is cooling, but still too high. A bank run shows how damaging rising interest rate is to the economy. Whether the Fed will continue its rate hikes, pause them, or end them altogether, I think all options are open. In my view, interest rate is in an uncharted territory once again. With investors in panic mode, they will likely overreact to the Fed decision. This may be a good time to place an order of out-of-the-money options on CBOT 10-Year Treasury Futures (ZN). On March 14th, the June ZN contract is quoted at 113’220. Quoting convention in Treasury market is 100 and 1/64th. The quote reads as (113 + 22.0/64), or $113.34375 on $100 par value. If the Fed slows or pause the hike, Treasury price will likely go up. Call options would be appropriate in this case. • The 115-strike call is quoted 0’20 (=20/64). This is converted into $312.5 premium on the $100,000 contract notional for each contract. If the Fed stays its course on fighting inflation, Treasury price could fall. And put options would be a way to express your view. • The 112-strike put is quoted 0’14, or $218.75 premium per contract. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
6