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Recession

Copper is Screaming! Are you listening?Why is Copper so important to track and what can we learn from studying its price action. Copper simply put is the most used base metal in the world and really powers every aspect of world. Doctor Copper is telling us something. Copper has had an impeccable rally of the lows, this has been confirmed with the major rally in copper mining stocks. In this chart we have overlayed the inflation rate in orange with the price action in copper. The inflation rate has a delayed reaction based off of the price action in Copper. What we can observe recently is the price of copper topping 112 days before the inflation rate. Copper had a significant decline which was followed by a decline in peak inflation. Over the last 148 days, Copper has rallied 38%. Could this mean that we are about to see a delayed spike in the inflation reading?
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Trading-Capital
2023-2024 Forecast - from Dow Jones 2000-2002 dot com RoadmapThis is a chart of the Dow Jones 2000-2002 dot com bubble market overlaid on the Australian share price index, but really, this Dow Jones market could be laid upon a number of U.S. indices and you would still find a high level of correlation. The forecast dates are unlikely to align. The overlaid will need to be pushed and pulled forwards a backwards by a number of months to achieve 1, 2 or possibly 3 'best-fit' potential outcomes. The major low is generally more likely to aligning with a secondary low (a low just before or after the major low), or possibly one of the highs between the lows.
OANDA:AU200AUDShort
by U2Rinfinite
Making Hay in the Land of the Rising SunLong Japan; Short US. Market conditions exist for Nikkei-225 index (“Nikkei”) to remain resilient over the next quarter relative to S&P 500 (“S&P”). BoJ's unflinching commitment to negative rates benefits Japanese firms with a weak Yen. Meanwhile, worsening economic conditions in the US with feeble growth outlook and likely recession could send S&P lower. This case study illustrates a spread trade between Nikkei and S&P to extract positive yield with compelling upside and limited downside. Entry at 7.011 with target at 7.402 and stop-loss at 6.787. TAILWINDS SUPPORTING NIKKEI In a year of crumbling global markets, Nikkei has shown remarkable resilience. YTD Nikkei is down 6% relative to 18% decline in the S&P. Three reasons why: 1. Consistent low interest rates in Japan: Loose monetary policies inflate asset prices. Thanks to a benign monetary stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Nikkei has been and continues to benefit. The BoJ has set its short-term rates at -0.1% and long-term rates at 0%. 2. Weak and weakening Yen: YTD 2022, the Yen is down 20% relative to USD. This helps boost profits for Japanese firms. While most central banks have gone hawkish, the BoJ is resolute in keeping its monetary policy loose. A weak yen makes Japanese assets cheaper. Rising demand for real estate, and a policy framework that incentivises foreign investment boost capital inflow into Japan (e.g.: TSMC new plant in Japan). 3. Pent-up tourism demand boosting travel industry and local spending: Easing pandemic restrictions and opening of borders unlocking pent-up tourism demand is turning the outlook of tourism industry bright. NIKKEI TECHNICALS Since October, Nikkei has rallied 11% to its peak on November 25th and 6.5% to its current levels post correction. The index sits gently above its 200-day moving average which perhaps serves as a support. The stochastic indicator is at 7.4 suggesting that Nikkei may be oversold and positioning for an upward correction. HEADWINDS FACING S&P 500 While Nikkei sets to soar, S&P appears feeble. US outlook is bleak with structural shifts pointing to slowing demand and job losses. Hawkish Fed with its stance on raising rates to fend off still hot inflation is likely to tip US economy into recession. a. Growing Recession Fears Recession looks likely after FOMC rate hike last week. As Chair Powell remarked, while a soft landing was still possible (skirting a recession), the runway for that was becoming shorter. Fed's stance remains firm and rightfully so. In the last eight (8) rate hike cycles, not once has the Fed eased until inflation print came lower to Fed funds rate. Expecting more rate hikes in 2023 creates downward pressure on the broader economy and the S&P. US growth outlook for the next year is a mere 0.5%. About 1.6m more could go jobless. In a sign of growing weakness, last Friday, Goldman announced 8,000 staff retrenchment comprising 8% of its workforce. b. Shrinking Consumer Spending Uncertain outlook makes consumers wary. Wary consumers spend less. Forecast by Walmart point to structural weaknesses. Weak retail sales are starting to show with no relief signs in sight. c. While King Dollar has lost some shine, it remains strong The US Dollar is enjoying a solid performance in decades. Flight to safety amid a world faced with poly-crisis and compounded by a hawkish fed committed to controlling inflation, the dollar remains king. A strong dollar is not necessarily good news. Rapid dollar ascent has made US goods & services less attractive hurting offshore earnings for the US firms. TECHNICALS FAVOR NIKKEI OVER S&P Notwithstanding the above, S&P is up since October rising nearly 20% to its peak on December 13th and 11% to current levels. However, unlike the Nikkei, the S&P is trading below its 200-day moving average which seemingly is impeding as resistance. S&P fell below its ascending channel suggesting that the rally might have lost steam. INSIGHTS FROM COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT As seen in the CME Commitment of Traders Report, Hedge Fund positions vindicates our outlook for Nikkei and S&P. Over the last 12 weeks, hedge funds have increased their net short positions by 34% in the CME's E-mini Futures and Micro E-mini futures . In sharp contrast, during the same period, these participants have increased their net long positions by 18% in CME Nikkei USD and Yen Futures combined. TRADE CONSTRUCTION Spread trades using futures require equal notional exposures across both legs. With S&P at $3,852, one lot of CME's Micro E-Mini contract provides $19,260 in notional exposure while each CME's Nikkei USD futures contract gives $136,160 exposure. At current levels, equalising notional value requires 7 lots of Micro E-Mini S&P futures for each lot of CME Nikkei Dollar Index Futures . One (1) lot of long Nikkei 225 futures is required to offset against Seven (7) lots of short Micro E-Mini S&P500 futures . Entry: 7.013 Target: 7.402, Potential Profit: $7,783 Stop Loss: 6.776, Potential Loss: $4,177 Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.86 When Nikkei outperforms S&P500, the spread trade delivers positive returns. Outperformance could manifest in one of three ways: (a) Nikkei rises while S&P falls, or (b) Both Nikkei and S&P rise but Nikkei rises more than S&P, or (c) Both Nikkei and S&P fall but Nikkei falls lesser than S&P. If the reverse of these three scenarios occurs, then the spread trade loses money. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
CME:NKD1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Echoes of the great recession of 2008An echo of the great recession of 2008 would look easy on this chart and fits nicely with the percentage distance from the 3-year moving average. I think this downturn will be even greater in magnitude and worse in different ways. QQQ at $187 by mid-summer is what I see likely. The Fed and US Treasury need folks begging to justify their next blunder. The weight of reality will be more than can be absolved by fairy tales. Also, chart colors.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Scorpions99
BTC accumulation phase spring or a massive bear rally ?Hello, It will be a quick one as the chart says it all. Basically, I think the current setup looks a lot similar to the price action we saw at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2018. 1. BTC made three consecutive lower lows on the 1-week chart, consolidated for a bit then made a new low which was the final one. We saw the same think happening the 15 months. 2. The RSI hit an oversold area around the same level as the one from 2018 while also printing a bullish divergence for the first time ever for BTC (or at least I could not find any older). 3. Volumes increased above the average between the 3rd and 4rd low on both occasions. 4. The price of BTC hit the long-term diagonal support and used it to rebound on both occasions. 5. BTC broke above the 21-period EMA with a solid green candle back then and now. The time of the green candle that broke above the short-term EMA found the RSI in the exact same state and place on its chart as back in 2019 I think it is quite possible we see a significant rally at least up to the first downtrend correction near $46,800 before a significant pullback. This will be in line with the 2018/2019 rally, also relatively similar in terms of percentage growth. Such a move will be normal in the state of disbelief, but it does not exclude a new low afterwards just like it was the case back in 2019/2020. So the "recession" and "long bear market" scenarios can still come to live. Let me know what you think in the comments
Long
by FutureBlockchain
3
CDSP peaks are a possible lagging indicator of recession startsThe new CDSP numbers are in for the previous quarter (consumer debt as percentage of household disposable income) . Large spike up in consumer debt loads as people are burning through their last cash and borrowing to keep up their life style before the crash. Goldman-Sachs claims that retail has unloaded their positions from the bull run. Thanks to @FXEvolution for the article. DotCom and GFC also had similar spikes. If a recession has already started, then earnings season will be bad. This fact is what can put us on the path to SPX ~3300-3500 What to do: If the CDSP in the future starts to spike down, it may be an indicator that a recession has already started. Check back in 3+ months.
FRED:CDSP
by MayaUndefined
Is the Recession Already Priced in?Hi everyone! 👋 Here’s my video reply to one of the questions asked in my prior video. I wanted to reply to everyone who asked questions, but my video ran way too long. TradingView has a time limit for videos. In this video, I answer the question that @Alt-B asked: How much of the coming recession has the market already priced in? I also show the Mortgage Rate Premium chart. This chart shows how much higher the average 30-year U.S. mortgage rate is than the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond. By comparing mortgage rates to the risk-free rate, we get an idea of how much risk the market is placing on mortgages being issued today. The premium is the highest ever, looking back about 35 years -- even higher now than during the subprime mortgage crisis. I hope you enjoy this video. Feel free to leave a comment below with your own thoughts about the current market. Also, feel free to ask any questions that you’d like me to answer in a future video. I will try my best to answer as many questions as I can. Finally, if you enjoy my videos and want to get updates, be sure to follow my ideas, (I will post reply videos as an update to prior videos). Thank you for your time in watching!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by SpyMasterTrades
39
Here's Why We're Probably Already in a RecessionHi everyone! 👋 This is my first ever video on TradingView . In this video, I explain how a deep dive into the continuing U.S. jobless claims (USCJC) could reveal that a recession is actually already underway. Later in the video, I explain my thoughts about the future direction of the market and why I believe we're entering into a period of stagflation . In this video, I also explain how you can use several tools on TradingView including the Polyline tool, and the Export Data tool (which is accessible by Pro+ and Premium subscribers). Let me know if you find this video to be helpful! Leave a comment below with ideas about what you'd like me to discuss in the future!
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
68
BTC Outlook 2023-2025Fresh new data and more information of significant factors brings me to a new deliberate prediction. The corrective wave that we are in is not a usual corrective wave. It could make twice as long as the two previous corrective waves in 2014 and 2018, an ABC move from a larger degree of Elliot Wave (Could be a wave 4 from the whole BTC movement since 2009). Currently we are in a bear market rally that potentially will bring BTC up to 25k, from there the corrective move will continue to the bottom which potentially at 8k in early 2024. I still believe potential Fed pivot will be around Q4 2023-Q1 2024 and inflation at that time will probably sits around 2-3%. 3% is good enough to restart the Quantitative Easing. Due to the longer corrective wave, 4th BTC Halving in Q2 2024 will occur in the 1st wave, not the same with the last three halvings that occured in the 3rd wave. This also means that we are approximately one year away from the beginning of a new bull market that potentially will make BTC going up to 140k or 1600% from 8k. Expect more business entities to collapse, more lay-offs and rising unemployment which also means rising in crime rates. Take care and survive!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by derahmanov
Economic logWith the New Year here with the Fed fighting aggressively to battle inflation i know there are a lot of rumors floating around the FED either lowering, maintaining, or increasing the FFR (federal funds rate). none of this matters in my opinion. why? price goes up and buyers slow down. Because, the FED jacked up interest rates so fast that they did not allow the markets to adjust. it seems as is the fed noticed that the inflation was indeed not "Transitory". anyone who believed the idea of transitory inflation is honestly quite foolish. something as absurd as "transitory inflation" is lip service for "give us a second to decide what to do". And "do" they did. As traders we do not care whether its political, all we care about is "the Set-up" there are a few fundamentals that lead me to believe this could potentially be a solid set-up. 1. during 2020 the FED lowered interest rates and here in the states there was a huge surge in demand for housing. So, homeowners bought houses at super low interest rates around the 3's. prior homeowners refinanced their homes at lower interest rates. Around the same percentage. Commercial Real Estate Investors bought RE during this time thinking the good times were going to continue to roll and when the bridge money is complete the inexperienced RE investors probably did not account for the massively higher interest rates on their Exit Caps when they ran their due diligence. So whats going to happen is now that the FED has made money way more expensive it has locked these investors and the sorry souls that invested with the guys in with the property. they will not be able to offload the property, because they will have to take a loss on the property because the cap rate went up and the buyer will not be able to afford the asking price at the 6-7% interest that is currently at in Jan of 2023. Nor will a lending institution lend Grade A money on grade B or C property. 2. Banks are in major trouble. the lending institutions that made riskier loans are about find out where their weak links are located. if borrowers did not lock their interest rates down the borrower and the lender are about to be at odds. This goes for people who took out a home equity line of credit out on their primary residence to buy some thing stupid like an expensive car, boat, girlfriend whatever. typically HELOCs are floating rates (not always) but most of the time. Banks are businesses and make their profit on the spread. Just like your market makers in trading. So the spread is the difference between the interest rate the bank has with the federal reserve and the interest rate you the consumer are willing to pay for the loan. example: if the FFR is 6% then the bank is going to charge you (typically around 2% over the FFR) 8% on a mortgage, car loan, whatever loan product. if you lock your interest rate down at 8 % you're good, but if not you're in trouble. Why? 3. Going back to the business part and the mortgage part. all the buyers and refi-ers that locked down at 3% are staying where they are at. the mentality is "why pay more for the same amount of house or the same house" So new home loans and refinances (the banks cash cow) are drying up. So how does a business survive the drought? they take their floating loans and shoot the rate sky high. to make up for the loss volume of new loans. Commercial Loans, HELOCs, HEILs, Refinances. The potential problem with this is the borrower accounted for the interest at the stated rate of lets say 3-5 percent. 3 percent everything is good, 5 percent the family is eating butterless toast. Well the contract states the bank can charge you up to (example) 20% on the loan after a seasoning period. on a 30 year 100k$ loan thats $20,000 dollars. so now the loan is 120k$ and the loan payment went from 286$ to 341$ naturally a 20% increase on your payments. Now I know alot of people are excited about mortgage rates coming down, but im not sure this is a good thing. i havent seen the paper on these loan products but im guessing one of two things A) these are floating ARMs (adjustable rate Mortgages) B) the banks are getting desperate for business. the FED doesnt control mortgages (YET) its up to the individual banks that borrow from the fed. The fed charges them the borrowing bank the FFR its up to the borrowing bank to decide what to do with cost they can either eat it and absorb the cost or they pass it on to the consumer. so when i hear mortgage rates being 6% or 7% which is near the current FFR its telling me the banks are trying to drum up business. it is by no means a good thing like i keep seeing. 4. Commercial loans are the same way. instead of giving the business the loan based on the borrowers position they are based off the businesses health and business plan. and the terms are a bit different. in commercial loans you have what they call balloon payments and thats when the loan matures. the balloon is typically 5-7 years and again rates can fluctuate. But to make the payments more affordable they lock you in at a payment rate of typically 20 -25 years but could go high as 30 years and even better they're typically interest only loans. So an example of this is on a 100K loan at a 20 year payment rate at 3% with a 5 year balloon youre only paying like 12$ month to month but at the the end of 5 years you have to pay back the entire 100K$. so, that leaves the business a few options to either refinance or liquidate. Now this is not all commercial loans but the ones im familiar with are like this, so if you're holding any businesses in your paper portfolio you need to be paying super close attention to their 10Ks and 10Qs, because a lot of businesses in-cooperated either the influx of cash or lack thereof during this weird COVID time. So if you're seeing their assets drop and their debt rise or maintain or even drop it means the business is selling off its assets to meet these increasing loan demands or even worse their taking new loans to pay off old loans. 5. the fed is in charge of the employment rate as well. kind of odd or counterintuitive to be frank on the matter. but it does kind of make sense. when you look at #4 you can see where the problems start to arise. once the businesses start to liquidate their physical plants they begin to square off the excess fat to bridge the gap. so all unnecessary employees and departments begin to get cut. So when you look at the unemployment rate i think every percent is a million people. So, when you hear things like 4% or 5% unemployment its basically saying 4,000,000 or 5,000,000 people are unemployed. the FED has stuck hard and fast on keeping inflation at 2% its in Powell's speeches on the FEDs website the writing is on the wall in essence. He has also been quoted to be unhappy with the employment rate and wanting higher unemployment. 6. Student loan bubble. I dont know how this is not being discussed in major outlets. But we have a major student loan bubble on our hands here in the states. the problem arises with the issue of the recession we are currently in at the moment. I whole heartedly believe that the US is in a period of Stagflation. productivity has leveled off or dropped off and prices are increasing. The problem arises (as i have said in prior posts before) is the last recession of 2008 businesses never really increased wages after that period i believe out of fear. they learned they can suppress wages and increase productivity so there is no need to increase wages if we can get more for less right? SO, we have kids leaving university with degrees and student loans with the promises of better paying jobs than their vocational trained counter parts, and the plan back fired. students are graduating university and taking jobs that are paying the same amount that a high school drop out is getting payed. (with the exception of STEM based degrees) Why? Because of wage suppression and the older work force staying in the work force longer locking up those higher paying positions due to inflation. So, these kids are forced to take lower paying jobs, live with their parents, and then 6 months later the bill is due for the loans. Im no conspiracy theorist im just a trader that uses a highly debated technique of trading, but if you just remove yourself and look at the bigger picture its clear to see that the world is moving toward a centralized economy. it will probably be a digital one that the central planners can control so they can limit the funds available to their opposition. AKA the FEDcoin. a digital dollar is a terrible idea. but thats a post for another time. long story short the pattern is a bearish butterfly. with all the fundamentals listed above with the rising interest rates i see the dollar gaining strength and in essence following this pattern and coming down over the long haul. thanks for reading my conspiracy! if youre a homeowner lock your mortage rate if you can or pay to lock the rate. even if its 1% or 2% higher than it is currently i dont see the FED slowing down until we get under 5% inflation (if the US government doesnt change the items listed in the CPI)
Short
by ARegularGuy
1
Fundamental and Technical Analysis | January week 2, 2023Table of Content: 1. The World Bank 2. Jerome Powell 3. Mass Layoffs 4. Corporate Headline 5. Technical 1. The World Bank The World Bank has recently announced a slash in the forecast for global growth. This year's global growth forecast is reduced by nearly half, to just 1.7%, from its previous projection of 3%. It would be the third-weakest annual expansion in three decades, behind only the deep recessions that resulted from the 2008 global financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. “For most of the world economy, this is going to be a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind,” Georgieva said. “Why? Because the three big economies — U.S., EU, China — are all slowing down simultaneously.” Furthermore, The World Bank projects that the European Union’s economy won’t grow at all next year after having expanded by 3.3 percent in 2022. It foresees China growing 4.3 percent, nearly a percentage point lower than it had previously forecast and about half the pace that Beijing posted in 2021. 2. Jerome Powell In a recent statement led by Jerome Powell, he expressed his highest level of hawkish sentiment towards the economy. He noted that inflation is the foundation of a healthy economy and can require the central bank to take actions that are not necessary, but popular. Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy and provides the public with measurable benefits over time. But restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy.” He wants to resolve the issue he initially created, previously, he was insistent that inflation was going to be transitory and now there is a clear indication that it is not and will require major efforts to bring it down. Why was Powell hawkish? Financial conditions are unintentionally loosening and he does not want to see it because that will increase the probability of a rebound in markets which could mean a rebound in inflation. - Some of the world’s largest asset managers such as BlackRock Inc., Fidelity Investments and Carmignac are warning markets are underestimating both inflation and the ultimate peak of US rates, just like a year ago. (Bloomberg) - “Central banks are unlikely to come to the rescue with rapid rate cuts in recessions they engineered to bring down inflation to policy targets. If anything, policy rates may stay higher for longer than the market is expecting,” a team of analysts including Jean Boivin, the head of the Institute, wrote last week. BlackRock is underweight developed market equities and it prefers investment-grade credit to long-term government bonds. - JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to 6% to fight inflation, which would be higher than most are expecting this year. 3. Mass Layoffs In order to bring down inflation, the Federal Reserve needs to slow down the economy. It is common sense to see that an economy will not go down until consumers stop spending which results in loss of employment. - One of Wall Street's biggest banks plans to lay off up to 3,200 employees this week, as it faces a challenging economy, a downturn in investment banking, and struggles in retail banking. It is one of the biggest rounds of layoffs at Goldman since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Goldman Sachs is having difficulties in the stock market, underperforming. - Bed Bath & Beyond reported a net loss for the quarter ending Nov. 26, 2022, of $393 million. That's a widening of 29.7% from the $276.4 million loss in the comparable quarter of 2021. Furthermore, the Q3 loss is worse than the retailer's projection last week of a $385.8 million loss. These inadequate results will lay off hundreds or thousands of employees in the company. On the other hand, the stock rallied by double digits, emphasizing again that the stock market likes when employees get fired to increase profit margins. - Coinbase announced Tuesday that it was laying off 950 people, about 20% of its staff. The job cuts come only a few months after another major round of layoffs. The crypto brokerage firm let 1,100 people go in June, about 18% of its headcount at the time. Again, the stock still rallied by double digits. It is notable to mention that the brother of the former Coinbase product manager, Nikhil Wahi, was sentenced Tuesday to 10 months for his role in a scheme to trade on confidential information about when the cryptocurrency exchange was going to list new tokens. A comparable phenomenon I start to visualize from these and recent layoffs is the 2021 stock splits. When firms announced stock splits in 2021, their stock would surge. In 2023, when a company announces layoffs, the stock surges higher (until they run out of liquidity). 4. Corporate Headline - The cyclical growth rebound, possibly triggered by the Chinese reopening, is being priced in or could go higher (major resistance at SPX $4,250). Macau sees deserted streets and Casinos after reopening (Reuters). - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. recorded its first quarterly revenue miss in two years, signaling the global decline in electronics demand is starting to catch up with the chip giant (Bloomberg). This issue will take months to recover as it has to adapt to the oversupplied market. - Apple is Broadcom’s largest customer and accounted for about 20% of the chipmaker’s revenue in the last fiscal year, amounting to almost $7 billion to stop buying key components, and instead, produce pieces themselves. - Blackstone Inc. lost a bid to end rent stabilization at Manhattan's largest apartment complex after a judge ruled in favor of tenants at Stuyvesant Town-Peter Cooper Village. - Wells Fargo, once the No. 1 player in mortgages, is stepping back from the housing market. This is a negative signal for the housing market, prices are too high and few can afford these houses. Once homeowners realize the Fed is not going to ease interest rates anytime soon, the housing market is going to slow down dramatically and individuals are going to lose their homes. Renters and Airbnb will slow down real estate further as they will not be able to pay their mortgages and will be forced to get rid of the houses, greatly increasing the supply. 5. Technical Analysis - Momentum indicators: RSI and MACD moving toward positive momentum and volume remains below average (bullish). - If S&P500 breaks the sloping resistance (channel), prices will rise significantly as individuals will assume the market is already priced-in, plus, showing: a break in pattern resistance; higher-low; and bear market sentiment reducing. - This is a similar pattern to the 2000 market crash where SPX broke a major trend and resistance, then followed to fall 34%. I point out the negative indication in most of my recent analyses, this is because the negative indications are far greater than any positive singular indication in this market environment. Overall, I have not changed my outlook and I am keeping my government bonds. I will take the opportunity of a rise in equity markets to short BTC at higher levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ssavi
LONG WAY TO THE BOTTOMMy theory is that we have a long way to go to reach the bottom of the market SP:SPX . Based on my previous post, which I have linked, we would have to reach some sort of support before coming back up. The current price I'm looking at is $2,191.86 . From the all time high in 2022 of $4,818.62 to that price is a 54% drop. See that the drawdowns of the past few recessions have been around 50%. This gives me more confirmation that my theory is true and we shall see how long this winter lasts!
SP:SPX
by jeanius_tech
Yellow Gold Rises (Then Falls) (Then Rises Again)As mentioned in my last idea on the subject, Gold is poised to rise dramatically in 2023 due to an upcoming liquidity event. Gold is a useful coincident indicator when used in conjunction with the USD. When Gold/USD are negatively correlated, it generally means there's a loosening of financial conditions for whatever reason (e.g., central banks selling dollars to buy gold, credit becoming more available, government sending cheques). When Gold/USD are positively correlated, it generally means there's a tightening of financial conditions due to uncertainty in the monetary system (e.g., flight to safety, store of value). What are the charts suggesting now? First, the dollar has been rising fast and hard since Q2 2021 up +28% in more than a year. It then reversed course in Q4 2022 falling -10%. This is not at all unusual. Often the dollar falls in Q4 due to seasonal market dynamics. And when it does, it then retraces the entire drop and more in Q1. As you might imagine, that could be hard on liquidity sensitive assets. Yet gold is interesting in this regard. If the liquidity shock is presaging something more nefarious, such as a global event or credit crisis, then Gold's fall pivots on a dime and the price rockets upwards. So these are the warning signs I'd be watching for: A sharp bounce in the DXY here (or as low as 97) A pullback on Gold to $1,730 (or as low as $1,510) A pivot in Gold so it rises with DXY Seeing this play out means that Gold is going to new highs... and that we're in a recession that gets deeper and more painful as the dollar rises.
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by sacredprofit
Nonfarm Payrolls Effect on Gold PriceOANDA:XAUUSD Key Economics Highlight in the first week of 2023 - Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for December 2022 were reported on 6th January 2023. - Nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 which is higher than what the market was expecting by 200,000. - The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, which was lower than the consensus of 3.7%. On the night of January 6, 2023, this report had a significant positive impact on various financial assets especially Gold. Gold prices rose from 1,836 USD to 1,850 USD within 10 minutes of the reporting and it made a higher high on the weekly candle at 1,869.9 USD before closing the week at 1,866.1 USD Technically, Gold price almost reach its significant supply zone at around 1876.5 USD. Therefore, it would not be surprising to see the gold price drops to the first support level or trade in the range of 1825 - 1876 for a while. Fundamentally, the current US workforce participation rate still has not reached the Pre-Covid19 level and the contribution of workforce participation in US consists more aging population which could be problematic for future economy growth as there could be more labor demand but less supply since more people are going into being retired. Therefore, it seems like the market has overreacted to this report in short term. But, speculators and investors must still continue to manage their risks based on the inflation rates and potential recession of US economy Let us know what you guys think!~
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ChartTrail
The Misconceptions of a 'FED Pivot'Investors often want the Federal Reserve (also known as “The Fed”) to pivot its monetary policy because it can potentially have a significant impact on financial markets. A pivot refers to a change in the direction of monetary policy, such as shifting from tightening (e.g., raising interest rates) to easing (e.g., lowering interest rates). When The Fed pivots towards easing, it can signal to investors that it is willing to support economic growth and potentially stimulate asset prices. This can lead to increased demand for stocks and other riskier assets, as investors expect that these assets will benefit from the supportive monetary policy. However, it’s important to note that The Fed’s pivot does not always have the intended effect on financial markets. For example; 1. In 2000, the Fed implemented QE in response to the dot-com bubble burst and the subsequent economic downturn. This policy involved the purchase of longer-term Treasury securities in order to lower longer-term interest rates and stimulate economic growth. 2. In 2007, the Fed implemented QE in response to the global financial crisis. This policy involved the purchase of a variety of securities, including mortgage-backed securities and longer-term Treasury securities, in order to lower longer-term interest rates and stimulate economic growth. 3. In 2020, The Fed pivoted towards a more accommodative stance in its monetary policy in response to the economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In conclusion, investors may want The Fed to pivot towards easing in the hope that it will stimulate economic growth and support asset prices. However, it’s important to recognize that The Fed’s actions do not always have the desired effect on financial markets, and there are many other factors that can influence stock prices. BUT. As an investor, there are a few things you can do while waiting for the Federal Reserve to pivot its monetary policy: - Stay informed: Keep track of economic and market developments, as well as statements and actions by The Fed. This can help you understand the current economic environment and how The Fed might be considering changing its monetary policy. - Diversify your portfolio: Consider spreading your investments across a range of asset classes and sectors, as this can help reduce risk and potentially provide more stable returns over time. - Have a long-term investment horizon: The Fed’s pivot may have an immediate impact on financial markets, but it’s important to remember that the long-term prospects of investment are generally more important than short-term movements. By having a long-term investment horizon, you can potentially ride out any short-term market volatility caused by a pivot in The Fed’s monetary policy. - Review your risk tolerance: Make sure that your investment portfolio is aligned with your risk tolerance and financial goals. If you are a risk-averse investor, you may want to allocate a larger portion of your portfolio to safer investments such as cash or bonds. - Seek professional advice: If you are unsure about how to navigate the investment landscape, consider seeking the advice of a financial advisor or professional. They can provide personalized guidance based on your specific investment goals and risk tolerance.
AMEX:SPY
by ariefauliaa