BITCOIN:At a risk of recessionHey traders, in this week we are monitoring BTCUSDT for a selling opportunity around 17400 zone, once we will receive any bearish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Trade safe, Joe.
Recession
Christmass delivery projection.I welcome you and wish you good luck in these times.
Today, I made some sketch, how should, or would be strong year ending.
While I still stay sceptic fundamentally and also on technicals .
It due to downtrend, recession and upcoming deflation waiting in 2023.
Never hold you money at any exchanges ;- )
There's more options and sites like Fixed Float, or directly in self custody wallets.
Yours Emvo.
*This is not any financial advice.
Coming into a recession Same for bitcoin ; buys are still in but it will be short.
As the stronger bottom is at 500$ of the dip below it.
As the recession is here but worse scenario are coming in 2023.
Same as before do your thing save much money as possible. So y’all will be prepared; don’t wait .. if the dip is in with a bottom you buy the dip.
Still in a downtrend for Ethereum should drop and and retrace back n forth until we hit the bottom.. until the bottom is in.. go all in.
Trade and invest safe y’all enjoy your day good luck.
Day traders y’all know what to do
The Recession is here…. Coming in 2023 the recession is coming and but it is already here since we are hitting end of the year soon.
FTX still in the further collapse and owner already got arrested.
So now we all caught up but now for 2023.. recession is here but far worse with the recession is coming in 2023.
Expect a buy zone area 12-10K area to go all in.. as billionaires are buying much bitcoin and Ethereum as possible because they’re already prepared for a recession and very excited about it.
If anyone aren’t prepared.. save lots of money as possible if you have saved then buy suggest 500$ of those points and you’ll thank me later or do your own way so you won’t ran out of money so you’ll be richer in 2023 into 2024.. this is a big opportunity to buy in a bargain.
Trade safe and buy carefully; even if your a day trader y’all know what to do.
Dow Jones Index Outlook 21 Dec 2022TVC:DJI DJI is clearly moving in a downtrend direction in the 30m timeframe. However, it stopped making a lower low yesterday plus it has a bullish divergence signal between price and RSI.
This bullish divergence is signaling a chance of trend change to either a sideway or uptrend direction, which we need to monitor the price action today.
If the market opens within the range of 32650-33040, then it has a chance of trading in this range for today.
However, if the market chooses to gap open above 33040 then it will test at 33163 and 333000 respectively.
On the other hand, if the market gap opens below 32650 then it will test at 32470 and 32328 respectively
All major bottoms have repeating elements (2008, covid, now)Pt.3All these major crashes within these last 2 decades, as well as the one we are experiencing now, deemed the "Great Inflationary Crash" all have the same repeating factors when price is close to a bottoming price, it is nothing for certain but it is just a repeating factor that may very well repeat again at the bottom of this downtrend. I think this specific crash will be much different from the others as we are in an inflationary bear market, which is the worst type of bear market. Apart from that the SPX has not drawn down as much as it should've by now so we will definitely go really low to one of those two targets I outlined which will mark the bottom. The only question is... which level will be the bottom? In the end, only time will tell so let's submit to time and let it take its course, will update.
All major bottoms have repeating elements (2008, covid, now)Pt.2All these major crashes within these last 2 decades, as well as the one we are experiencing now, deemed the "Great Inflationary Crash" all have the same repeating factors when price is close to a bottoming price, it is nothing for certain but it is just a repeating factor that may very well repeat again at the bottom of this downtrend.
Nasdaq - To Complete 7th Corrective Move Then Done!?Major confluence suggesting one more corrective move to the downside.
Major Fib and Liquidity confluences
7th Corrective Elliot Count
12 months of correction
2023 macro scenario and the ways to use it for the portfolio manTo set a dollar investment strategy for the year ahead, we need to be aware of the macro context.
The current situation resembles the beginning of two stagflations in the early 1970s and 1980s which were characterized by accelerating inflation after reaching its bottom due to record-low unemployment, and the Fed’s rate hike to combat the inflation surge.
Now we see real GDP falling while nominal value is increasing, but unemployment is still at its lows.
We see similarities in the sharp rise in inflation that led to the Fed’s rate hike, but the 2021-2022 inflation surge is different in speed: before the 1970s and 1980s the stagflation rates increased gradually over 3-4 years, but now after low covid base and record amount of money printed the rate is more rapid.
We believe the end of 1969 is similar to the current situation. We see two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP, several quarters of persistently high inflation, which was 1-2% before the acceleration, and the unemployment at the same low level of 3.5%. The Fed’s rate continues to peak, in 1969 it was at its highest level. The consumer also was strong, income increased before and during the stagflation.
Given the experience of the 1970s, the rate exceeded inflation and it resulted in a slowdown, but there was no sharp fall in inflation, it was only 1 percent below its peak for almost a year. That makes sense as strong consumer and gradually weakening but still strong labor market kept inflation from sharp drop. The same factors are in place now, so we expect inflation to be 7-8% in 2023.
The most important factor is rent, which affects inflation with a 6-month lag, it gives + 0.2% MoM. We expect this effect to persist at least till May. Food and other gives +0.3 MoM as most conservative case for 2022. This will lead to core inflation of at least 5% YoY. In addition, higher gasoline prices will result in 5-6% of inflation. Given the situation in housing and oil markets, cumulative inflation could be around 7% by March 2023 and around 5% by May.
Accordingly, the Fed’s rate could reach its peak at 5.75-6.0%.
THE FED'S ACTIONS DURING RECESSION
Given the increase of 0.5% after each subsequent meeting, the rate will peak in June 2023 at 6.25-6.5%.
In the 1970s, the Fed’s rate peaked in August 1969, stayed near the peak over six months, and started to sharply decline in February.
Now the rate’s peak is still to come. We should understand that the Fed does not necessarily stop raising rates if the economy falls into recession. The abovementioned example shows that in 1974 8 months passed from the start of the recession to the rate peaks, and the graph below shows that in 1980 3 months passed from the start of the recession until rates peaked.
LET'S FOCUS ON WHAT A RECESSION IS
Contrary to what many people believe, it is not the GDP decline alone but a combination of factors that have been underway over several months :
Falling real GDP
Increase in unemployment
Lower retail sales
Declining real income and spending of the population
Drop in production volume
So, even if real GDP declines, while employment is record-breaking, it is not yet a recession (as we observe in 2022). The NBER is the official source of the start and end dates of recessions in the US. It provides the following definition: “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
More details of how and why the NBER identifies the beginning and the end of recessions are available here .
Also, there is a very handy dashboard that displays online all the indicators the NBER looks at when determining a recession– here .
Most indicators do not show the recession yet, and probably it will not appear in the next few months.
THE RECESSION TRAJECTORY EXPECTED IN 2023
There was a big collapse in global bond markets, especially in longs. As a result, those who had savings in bonds lost in nominal terms, and even more in real terms, i.e., adjusted for inflation.
What causes the loss of purchasing power:
Losses on investment accounts (stocks, bonds, and mixed funds)
Higher energy and utility costs in Europe due to multiple increases in gas prices
Gasoline prices growth in the US
Rising interest rates on loans, including housing mortgages
The economy's big surge in 2021 was driven by record liquidity and low rates, shaped by the actions of Central Banks almost worldwide. As there was a gap between consumption and production capacity, inventories slumped and the inflationary spiral began to accelerate: high demand spurs expansion of production and full capacity utilization, which requires more labor. The labor market becomes "tight", employers must increase wages, so commodity prices rise, the demand keeps increasing through income growth and consumers buy at higher prices.
The credit impulse has shifted from stimulating the economy to restraining it. Based on the correlation with the US corporate EPS, from March 2023 it will begin to decline.
Banks in Japan, England and some European countries are forced to buy bonds on the balance sheet (Quantitative easing), while there is high inflation in the country. If they do not do this, the local financial market (the largest bondholders - pension funds) will be jeopardized. As a result, rates in these countries cannot exceed inflation until it remains so high (~10%). And raising the rate above inflation used to be an effective way to combat it. It turns out that banks have no strategy other than to keep inflation high and rates relatively low by boosting their own balance sheets. This is likely to cause a quick reversal of the credit impulse to stimulate the economy, so the recession will not be prolonged, but inflation will remain at elevated levels.
MACRO FORECAST FOR 2023
7% of inflation by March and 5% by May
Fed rate peaks at 5.75-6.0% in June 2023
Beginning and depth of recession from Q2 2023. The depth and duration of the recession depends on the speed with which global central bank policy shifts from containment to support. It is reasonable to expect the first signs of support in late summer/early fall, then the exit from the recession could be as early as in Q4 2023.
Based on this development and the historical analogies to the crises in the 1970s and 1980s, it is reasonable to expect the stock and bond market bottom to be reached within 2-3 months after the end of the rate hike, which means August-September 2023 would be the optimal time to buy.
It is important to follow when the Fed shifts from tight monetary policy to support of the economy, we should expect the markets to bottom within 2 to 3 months. If that happens earlier or later than June, there will be a corresponding shift in timing guidance for buying.
To use this analytics effectively, you need to monthly update the timings to move earlier or later the timing of the rate hike end and the market bottom formation.
AUD/USD Technical AnalysisWe could see potential upward movement although sellers were stronger.
We have formed fake-breakout on a 4h chart closing below the 4h timeframe and below 1d timeframe resistance. Meaning that shorting in current position wouldn't be a mistake. Waiting for a little pullback and continuation to the downside.
My entry (when markets open)
Entry: .66862
SL: .67372
Entry #2 (in case i get stopped)
Entry:.67947
SL: .68174
Like if you agree
Follow if you wanna see more:)
Short XAU/USDafter the FED last meeting on 14.DEC . the FED will raise rates to 4.5% then the next meeting will contuine to raise again ,so the raise rates will continue in 2023 so we can see the more declining in gold , therefore the gold will decline the strongest resistance here is between 1800-1820 rhen we are going down to 1700-1730 (support) then going to down at the level at 1620 strongest support, three bottoms here that mean if we reach at this level this will be the fourth bottom , the most likely will happen to break $1620 as the recession fears will continue in 2023
For Crypto to "Win", it Has to Solve its Own ProblemsThe idea of "smart investing" comes with the assumption that the market rewards reason and punishes irrationality in the long-term. What they don't tell you, though, is that the opposite is often true in the short-term. If you want to make money, more often than not you do have to have the discipline to move contrary to what most are doing.
It's been almost a decade since I started getting into this stuff but the above still seems to hold true. Crypto has been mostly flat for about 6 months now, but has stayed mostly stable. The last bull run had a similar pattern where it climbed to new highs (BTC $4000→$16000, ETH $100→$1400) then went back down to where it was prior. (And stayed that way for a few years.)
The projects that were diligently working on their product even after the dip ended up reaping the rewards of the 2020 rally and did very well for themselves. The rivalries between Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, Tezos, Cardano, Ripple, EOS, etc. were there even back in 2018, but the arguments were mostly about technical differences and felt less “personal”. This time, a lot of arguments you see on social media have more personal, political, ideological slants - a sign of the irrationality of mainstream money having arrived, perhaps.
For what it’s worth, despite the FTX scandals and the very negative media coverage of crypto in recent weeks, the price hasn't really moved all that much. Chances are good that the ones that were going to leave are already gone and we're only left with the ones who are in it for the long-haul. While the talking heads gripe about their losses in public, the builders will continue to build, pushing the industry where it needs to be for the future to come. That is the hope, anyway.
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Long-term strategies only work if you're willing to wait at least one market cycle since the system needs time to work itself out - and I haven’t seen any exceptions to this rule, thus far. But having been through 3 crypto winters already, I’m starting to wonder what’s really taking so long for us to get to where we need to be - the “big ideas” in crypto (transparency, accountability, partnership automation) can already be done with distributed ledgers, but the industry has been slow to adapt to it, to say the least. The problem is that we're not really utilizing blockchain technologies the way we should be: case in point, when you look at all the people in the media and social media talking about how much money they’re making, how do we know if what they’re saying is actually true? We have no idea - we’re just taking their word for it, and now we’re finding out that many of them we’re just trying to lie and grift their way to the top. Whatever happened to "verify, not trust"?
Having gotten too used to low interest rates, the fiat markets are poised to be in big trouble over the next few years - if not more. The trends do say that when an economic system goes into disarray, crypto adoption tends to go up. But in order for that to happen, the crypto community does need to convince the world that it's safer to park their money in coins rather than fiat - which, if we're being honest - we're not quite there yet.
But unlike fiat institutions that are saddled with legacy and protectionist frameworks, crypto has the tools to fix itself if it wanted to - the advantage of being a new industry that has the energy and flexibility to adapt. The current irony is that crypto is suffering from the very problems it poised to solve - but a lot of it is holdovers of bad habits from Web2 and traditional fiat. You could probably argue the SBF's actions was a product of the fiat world, not crypto - there's a reason why there are those on the “inside” trying to protect him now. But FTX is also a preview, in a way, of what's to come to the fiat worlds as we head further into the recession - what they do to SBF could be them next - which is why they feel like they need to protect him at all costs, despite the blatancy of his misdeeds.
In a way, SBF did the industry a favor in getting the skeletons out of the closer earlier than later. For fiat, the tide is only just starting to pull. Crypto will either set the new standards for transparency, accountability, and decentralized governance - or it’s going to fall into old habits again and go to 0. (There is no reason for people to use crypto if it’s just going to be Web2.1 - the incumbents have that covered already.) It’s going to be an interesting ride over the next few years, either way.
ECONOMIC CYCLE & INTEREST RATESHello traders and future traders! The state of an economy can be either growing or shrinking. When an economy is growing, it typically leads to improved conditions for individuals and businesses. Conversely, when an economy is shrinking or experiencing a recession, it can have negative consequences. The central bank works to maintain a stable level of inflation and support moderate economic growth through the management of interest rates.
What is an economic cycle?
An economic cycle refers to the fluctuations or ups and downs in economic activity over a period of time. These cycles are typically characterized by periods of economic growth and expansion, followed by periods of contraction or recession. Economic cycles are often measured by changes in gross domestic product (GDP) and other economic indicators, such as employment, consumer spending, and business investment.
Economic cycles can be caused by a variety of factors, including changes in monetary and fiscal policy, shifts in consumer and business confidence, and changes in global economic conditions. Economic cycles can also be influenced by external events, such as natural disasters or political instability.
Understanding economic cycles is important for businesses, governments, and individuals, as it helps them anticipate and prepare for changes in the economy and make informed decisions about investment, hiring, and other economic activities.
How is an economic cycle related to interest rates?
Interest rates can be an important factor in the economic cycle . During a period of economic expansion, demand for credit typically increases, as businesses and consumers borrow money to make investments and purchases. As a result, interest rates may rise to control the demand for credit and prevent the economy from overheating. Higher interest rates can also encourage saving, which can help to balance out the increased spending that often occurs during an economic expansion.
On the other hand, during a period of economic contraction or recession, demand for credit tends to decline, as businesses and consumers become more cautious about borrowing and spending. In response, central banks may lower interest rates to stimulate demand for credit and encourage economic activity. Lower interest rates can also make borrowing cheaper and more attractive, which can help to boost spending and support economic growth.
Overall, the relationship between interest rates and the economic cycle can be complex and dynamic, and the direction and magnitude of changes in interest rates can depend on a variety of factors, including economic conditions, inflation expectations, and the goals and objectives of central banks and other policy makers.
I hope you leant something new today!
Bitcoin is ready to collapse and final leg downBitcoin is ready to collapse and amid fears of the recession from the Feds decision since U.S. economy is slowing down and it’s not good for bitcoin and neither for the markets.
Still below 17K; the bears has a strong potential to crash and collapse even lower.
Bitcoin halving is coming in 2024.. which is the big sign for buyers to buy the dip at the new lows of the bottom ( DONT BE LATE!! )
As I said before don’t trust any short buys because the bears are fully controlled.
Anyhow now the bottom has been confirmed from the crypto veterans and experts also big companies see bitcoin will bottom in 12-10K before or during 2023 1st Quarter; if it doesn’t hold because the recession is coming.. we will see bitcoin to go even lower than 10K zone.. FYI the Feds are still in charge to keep its decision to go higher rates and the inflation will be expected to go a lot higher in 2023.
Bitcoin All time high prediction
2023-2024 new high; 100-150K
2025-2026 new high: 200-250K
2027-2030 ( or longer) new high ( LONGTERM ) 1 Million.
If you are a holder then wait 10 years.. perhaps 5 years.. if wanted a fully retirement.
Trade safe y’all and keep an eye of those buy points for a bargain.
How low NASDAX will go.. RECESSION 2023I hope everyone watches the Feds decision on December 15th morning and Federal Powell speech at 2:30pm. Yes it’s pretty bad.. so at Europe the economy are slowing down and USA economy are slowing down as well.. even though everyone is spending less to avoid the highest expenses.
The Feds will continue to fight against the inflation because it hasn’t reached their goals 2% ..it will be awhile and very far to go. In 15 years in continuing highest rate of all time taking Target between %4.25 & 4.5%, Along with the increase came an indication that officials expect to keep rates higher through next year, with no reductions until 2024.
Yup you know this everyone .. severe Recession is really coming….
For NASDAQ I am keeping my only eye over than US30 because we all know US30 will bottom around 24000 area or lower as we might see.. for NAS buy zone should be at 10K, 9500 or worse about 8000.. big feeling 8000 or 9500 could be the bottom forming for NAS because of the Feds decision because now everything is still going to be expensive. If you still have loans , credit cards or something be sure to pay them off before we be getting a massive hit start into a recession as fears are coming into a close into it.
Hope y’all have a good day .. save lots of money as possible.. invest of your average money .. don’t go all in until we are bottom.
How far nas will go and US30 ? What are your analysis.
🟨 Recession = More VolatilityWHAT IS IT
Modelling previous moves of the S&P500 Recession & Non-recession moves, we can create a model for 2 scenarios:
Non-recession Bull *Cyan*
Recession Bear *Orange*
HOW TO USE IT
Bear markets have never ended before the start of recessions, so a recession would likely mean new lows in the market indexes. The stock market tends to lead the economy out of a recession, too, by an average of four months. Absent a financial crisis, the recession should be shorter than recent cases. The orange line in the chart below shows the average performance of the S&P 500 nine months before the end of a recession bear to three months after, which would align with a 9/30/2023 recession end date.
The average recession bear decline is 34.6%, but a milder recession could equate to a smaller-than-average drop. To date, the 2022 decline is in line with the average non-recession bear. The market took the Fed’s threat to push the economy into recession seriously, so for now, the policy mistake scenario is in play.
🟨 SP500 Around Post-War RecessionsTodays study follows analysis on the Post-War Recession Start Dates.
We evaluate the price action the 12 months before Start of Recession and 12 months after Start of the Recession.
What we can easily evaluate that once and IF a Recession is confirmed we have about 5.8% more (ON AVERAGE) to the downside and the next 2 months are most volatile.
From then on we can see that within 10months (the Median length of a Recession) the Market comes close to full recovery.
DATA FROM FOLLOWING START OF RECESSION PERIODS
11/30/1948
07/31/1953
09/03/1957
05/02/1960
12/31/1969
11/30/1973
01/31/1980
07/31/1981
07/31/1990
04/02/2001
12/31/2007
03/02/2020
BCO/USD Technical Analysis Hello Traders!
Based on the fact that we stopped without hitting a 72.0 level tells me that its is very likely that buyers who bought set out their sl on the next support.
Furthermore, trend hasn't changed and what is happening is a pullback. Im looking to sell on two levels risking total 3% of my trade position.
82.3 and 86 are two levels of my interest for the short side.
Inflation still high .. not good enoughCPI data of inflation still high but feeling will be at %7.3 over.
If it’s lower then we will recover but .. the Feds haven’t reached the goals as they wanted.
The inflation still over 40 year high , House markets are still unaffordable and expensive people still trying to get a house and such.
As everything all mixed because of it.. have a feeling the big drop is coming as long the recession is coming in 2023 since lay offs are still going.
CPI DATA is not going to be goodCPI data release today.. big feeling will be at above 7.3%
Because the inflation still high, this brings the feds will crash the Market in the meeting tomorrow.
As recession is coming in 2023.. this is not good news but very bad news for the market and crypto markets to a huge crash.
DANGER FOR US30!!!!! BIG SELL OFF APPROACHING! RECESSIONOn this chart you can see major signs of a sell off if you are using the Wyckoff Distribution method. In fact if you pull up BTC in 2021 at its all time high you will see that the chart is IDENTICAL. Listed are the descending lines of supply and the final Buy up line that will complete the rest of the demand the market has to offer. With confluence of the Fed meeting next week, we also see a huge volume divergence where the price has marked up drastically but there has been a mojor decline in volume; this indicates that there are fewer buyers jumping into calls at higher prices (in other words retail traders). Look for US30 to drop well to the previous local bottom and maybe even to pandemic lows.
XAU/USD Technical AnalysisHello Traders!
What do you see on this chart and what are your expectation and interpretation of what you see?
What i see on a 4 hour chart is the following: we hit the resistance level on 15th November after which we proceeded to the pullback action where we stopped at 1732.5. 1809.6 is our latest local resistance level which we reached and made a double top and continued to the downside.
for it to keep on the bullish trajectory i expect it to close below 1786.7 and possibly expect a fake-out on 1809 level.
🟨 SP500 Declines - BEFORE Recession[bBACKGROUND
In previous idea I showed that it is very significant if we are going to get recession or not.
Link here:
WHAT WE ARE LOOKING AT
Here we look at what % decline did the SP500 experience BEFORE the start of a recession*.
HOW TO USE IT
We see that the average decline is -6%, HOWEVER we are currently already at -25%.
This indicates that the current market environment has already discounted quite a lot, even if there is a recession. Remember market is forward looking mechanism. Meaning things might not get VERY ugly even if there is a recession.
However, in the previous idea we saw that the average decline of a Bear market that coincides with a recession is -34.6%, meaning that ON AVERAGE, EVEN IF we get a Recession we can expect about a 10% decline from the current levels, but a lot has been discounted before the decline.
LEGEND
*Percent decline from SP500 monthly closing cycle high to the month "before" a recession begins.
🟥 Red lines indicate the start of a recession.
