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Recession

The Recession will continue. SP500!!! A year ago i posted that SP500 will continue to fall ,now we see what clearly has happened since then . The overall fall has prodused ripples of fear throughout the whole market. Infation coming in hot , the FED keeps rising interest rates , mass cut of position jobs from big companies, most of that happening on a short period of time . I believe that if the report by the FED on Wensday comes with higher interest rates , the market will crash lower with my perdiction ranging on a -15% to -20% by the first weeks of the new year . Even if the report comes in lower , market will still find its way to the bottom throughout the new year. Moreover through the analysis of the past recessions and crashes and due to the current market conditions over the last year i consider the overall market is set to fall even lower with the SP500 falling at 2400-2200 , which is almost 50% drop from its peak . To sum up , i believe this trumble will sink the whole global market , at a point that every citizen will feel it to the bone. I dont want to spread fear or being pessimistic but i want to spread awearness , and you being prepeared for every possible outcome, because the one who loses money and afraid of the current situation is the one WHO IS NOT PREPARED!!!
TVC:SPXShort
by The_DailyProfit
Does the yield curve inversion signal recession?The famous negative curve. This market concept is used when the US02Y or US03Y operate at higher levels than the US10Y, this behavior usually anticipates recessions, but why does this happen? The inversion of the yield curve distorts the expected functionality of the financial system. Under "normal" conditions, raising funds in the short term for investment in longer terms is used to provide positive arbitrage between interest rates on liabilities (paid) and assets (received), a strategy subject to the limits of the rollover capacity of the liabilities and raising new funds. The availability of assets with higher premiums and liquidity, US02Y and US03Y, makes it less attractive to offer funds for longer terms < US10Y, and more expensive to raise funds for those who demand funds for shorter terms. So the interest curve is considered a kind of thermometer of what lies ahead in an economy, and it is the graphic representation of how much investors are charging to lend money in different maturities, and once it is inverted, it means that it is more expensive to borrow in the short term than in the long term – an unusual thing, because more distant payment dates mean greater risks for the borrower. In the US economy, a widely documented fact is that yield curve inversion (i.e., when there is a negative differential between long-term versus short-term bond yields) is a good leading indicator of periods of economic contraction. four to six quarters ahead. According to data available on the Federal Reserve website, yield curve inversion has preceded every US recession since 1950, with the exception of a false signal in 1967. There is also evidence that indicators of this nature are important predictors of periods of economic contraction in other countries. But are there any silver linings to this unusual reversal scenario? Yes, in these moments of greater uncertainty we have an interesting opportunity to buy good companies at low prices. This is because after the monetary tightening cycle, the economy usually weakens, during this period risk assets suffer, considering that their future projections will suffer due to the scenario, so many of the market participants seek security in bonds, others seek to anticipate the recovery considering that as soon as this CORRECTIVE cycle ends, a new UPWARD CYCLE tends to maintain perennial companies and give birth to many new companies that arise in the face of challenging scenarios.
Editors' picks
TVC:US10YEducation
by leandrosander_
35
Oil Prices Struggle amid Growing Recession Fears and Fed HikesEarlier today, oil prices were on the rise after the shutdown of the Keystone pipeline. However, this rally was quickly wiped out as sellers attacked the market, pushing prices even lower. The oil market has been struggling due to growing concerns about a potential recession and the belief that central banks have tightened monetary policy too much. This fall in oil prices has also had the side effect of reversing inflation, which can be seen as a positive for central banks. Despite this, there is some support for oil prices at the $70 level, as this is when the White House talked about refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Overall, the outlook for the oil market remains uncertain, with concerns about a potential recession and the actions of central banks continuing to weigh on prices. However, some analysts believe that a relief rally is still possible in the coming days and weeks, as the shutdown of the Keystone pipeline and other factors could provide support for oil prices. Jargon Explained Strategic Petroleum Reserve The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is a reserve of crude oil stored by the United States government in underground salt caverns. The SPR was created in response to the oil embargo of the 1970s, and its purpose is to provide a emergency supply of crude oil that can be quickly released onto the market in the event of a supply disruption. Keystone Pipeline The Keystone pipeline is a system of oil pipelines that transport crude oil from Canada to refineries in the United States. The pipeline system consists of two phases: the first carries oil from the oil sands of Alberta, Canada to refineries in Illinois and Oklahoma, while the second phase, known as Keystone XL, would carry oil from Alberta to refineries on the Gulf Coast of Texas. The Keystone pipeline has been the subject of controversy, with opponents arguing that it poses risks to the environment and to local communities.
FX:USOILShort
by JoelWarby
Fall of USD as Global Reserve CurrencyIf you give someone a button to print money, they will press it 1,400 years ago the Roman republic inflated its currency until its empire collapsed USD used to be backed by gold, but that ended in 1971 This allowed governments to print endless money Hyperinflation is just a matter of time The US government learned to overspend and print the difference The debt is now $31 trillion and $100 trillion in liabilities The only way out is printing more money But destroying the savings and hard-earned tax money of citizens Global reserve currencies change every 90 years So, Monetary Switch is inevitable Checkout Venezuela's 2013- mid-2020 Inflation data The paper that is used to print a dollar is not actually worth a dollar. The paper does not have value, it simply represents the value. It is not money because it holds no individual value. To take it a step further, dollars are actually the OPPOSITE of value. Dollars are debt. A dollar is a PROMISE to pay back debt. The U.S. is over a trillion dollars in debt. A trillion is “1” followed by 12 zeros. It’s a thousand billion. A trillion seconds is 32,000 years. A stack of $1 bills would be 68,000 miles high. So how do we pay back such monumental debt? Taxes. It’s painful, but it’s obvious. So, the dollar is the PROMISE of the U.S. government to pay back over a trillion dollars of debt by taxing its citizens. And, to kick you while you are down, the debt is still growing. The dollar is actually debt. That is why the smart rich don’t work for dollars, they work for assets like BTC and GOLD Thank You for Reading. Like and Share!
Education
by FortuneAI
2
Bond Market Signals Potential Trouble for the Federal ReserveIn recent weeks, the bond market has been sending a strong signal to the Federal Reserve: it may be making a serious mistake. The yield curve, which measures the difference in interest rates between short-term and long-term bonds, is currently more inverted than it has been since the early 1980s. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates. This can be a cause for concern because it can indicate that investors are expecting economic growth to slow in the future. When investors expect the economy to slow, they are less likely to lend money for long periods of time, leading to higher interest rates on short-term bonds and lower interest rates on long-term bonds. The current yield curve inversion has many experts worried. In the past, an inverted yield curve has often been a reliable predictor of a recession. In fact, every recession in the past 50 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. One reason for the current inversion may be the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hikes. The Fed has raised interest rates several times in recent years in an effort to prevent the economy from overheating. However, these rate hikes may have had the unintended consequence of slowing economic growth. Despite the potential risks, experts believe that the current yield curve inversion may not be as concerning as it seems. They argue that other factors, such as the strong job market and low unemployment rate, suggest that the economy is still in good shape. In the end, only time will tell if the bond market's concerns are justified. However, the Federal Reserve will need to closely monitor the situation and be prepared to take action if necessary to prevent a potential recession.
FRED:T10Y2Y
by JoelWarby
2
SPX Huge Short incomingLooking for the benchmark index to go up a little more in to the 4hr poi and daily descending trendline resistance before dropping to make new lows. Mid to end of November should mark the start of a new and more aggressive downwards movement where we could see price reach the 2750 level. This is a very important level as it represents the 50% from ATHs and the 08/09 financial crisis where we saw unprecedented drops. Once we reach this level and rebalance the COVID-19 crash, I'd start looking to hedge buys into the market.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Turtlesoup_Maestro
5
The Impact of Economic Factors on the Stock MarketHi there! So, I heard that the economy is in a bit of a rough patch because the FED is raising rates, there's some quantitively tightening happening, and there's a potential recession on the horizon due to a supply shock from the Russia-Ukraine war and China's pandemic restrictions. It looks like we might be heading into a recession, which is sooo not good news. The stock market will definitely be feeling the effects if the index falls below its moving average of 200 days. It's not looking great, I have to say. But don't worry, there are still ways to protect your investments. Some technical indicators you might want to keep an eye on include the relative strength index (RSI), the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator, and the Bollinger bands. These can help you evaluate the strength of the current trend and potentially identify opportunities to buy or sell. Also, outside the SPX index there are still ways to further protect your investments. For example, you might want to consider reducing your exposure to risky assets and increasing your holdings of safe-haven assets like government bonds. Just remember to stay positive and keep an eye on the market!
SP:SPX
by jhnes95
FEDS DECISION We are still in a bear market.. but we need to worry about the Feds. As in on Dec 2nd of jobs data .. they added 263,000 more jobs added. But the economy are still slowing down. As in the Wall St.. fully agreed that SPX500&NAS100 will crash over 20% Also other reason. 1: USA just entered a recession 2: COVID-19 Epidemic cases are still rising and deaths.. also other diseases coming to place and new variants. If anyone still thinks we are bullish be extremely careful.. the bear market is NOT over. We are in December, Recession full effect is coming in 2023 we have Feds meeting coming Please memorize them it’s important.. for US30 we will see lots of further down.. or lower. FEDS MEETING DATES. Dec: 14th Inflation Data Dec: 15th Feds Decision ( Feds Powell will ether save the market or a lot worse.. will crash the market. )
U
by JoyBoyVegae
9
How I see BitcoinHello everyone, this is how I see Bitcoin in the long run. Looking at the weekly timeframe, I am still bearish on Bitcoin right now as it is still trading below the 200-EMA since June 16th, 2022. Also, we're currently in a technical recession after the FED of Atlanta has estimated a negative -2.1% for Quarter 2 of 2022. We already had a negative -1.6% decline for Quarter 1 and now after the FED of Atlanta released their estimates, we're definitely in the technicalities of a recession. If you don't believe we're in a recession right now, just look awful the big retailers did for their Quarter 1 earnings. Walmart and Target did terrible as their revenue went down from consumers cutting their spending due to inflation and of course the cost of gas/diesel, affecting truckers and consumers. Look at Target, when their Q1 earnings were released on May 18th, 2022; they had an excessive inventory as Target highlighted that there is less customer traffic in their stores, meaning that consumers are not spending as much simply because everything is getting too damn expensive, due to inflation! As consumers cut back on their spending, it will obviously affect the GDP. Just look at the consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. It's at the lowest it has ever been recorded. It's not just consumer spending, look at how many times the 2-year and 10-year treasury yields have inverted this year. The 2-year and 10-year treasury yields have inverted multiple times in February, March, April, May, and today, as of typing this right now. Many tech companies like Coinbase, Meta, Tesla, etc., have all stopped hiring people since May of 2022, in order to cut back on Salaries and Wages Expenses, due to inflation and bad market sentiment. I could keep going on and on as there are many indicators of a recession. Obviously, we still have to wait for an official announcement from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 28th, 2022; whether we're in a recession or not. How does this all relate to Bitcoin? Well, for the past 4 months, every time the CPI data was released, Bitcoin always had a negative reaction to it. As inflation increases, this will cause the markets to dip even further, meaning that investors will draw away from their investments and will be on cash instead during a recession. Since we are in technicalities of a recession due to the FED of Atlanta, expect the stock market to have a negative reaction, causing the price of shares to go down, which in result, will cause a negative reaction to the crypto market in the short-term. So July 13th (CPI Data Release) and July 28th (Real GDP Data Release) will be two important days for July 2022. In the meantime, just because I am bearish on Bitcoin doesn't necessarily mean it's the end of the world. I am still bullish on Bitcoin for the long run. Just zoom-out and relax. Disclaimer: (I am not a financial advisor! Always conduct your own research before investing.)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by brandonreymejia
BTC confirmed the bear flagIn this Bitcoin update can we see that the price confirmed the bear flag but need to confirm the 30k range to confirm a recession as this price range while when the price has confirmed the 25k range would the price be in a free fall period. This free fall line is confirmed by the 200 EMA on the Weekly time frame and if the price, with confirmation, would fall below this line would the price be in a free fall zone. This price range would also act as support in the past but this bearish confirmation is confirmed by the Ichimoku clouds showing bearish signs. Meaning that the price does not have tangible support or resistance more than guestimates and if the price would reach levels like the 20k range and the 10k range.
Short
by vf_investment
3
Bearish flag resulting in 10k Bitcoin Bear flag: Short term: Bitcoin seems to have a systematic bounce from its current bottom in the 40k range, where the consolidation zone may bring k the price to the 45k range where the over-arching trendline is crossing and continuation to 49-51k. In the short term can we see a bottomed out MACD and an bottomed out RSI with room to reach levels of 45k and 51k range. Long term: After re-touching 45k and 51k ranges, would the price crash downwards as buyers have taken profit at these two price ranges. The bearish flag is formed and the the over arching trend is found once again on this down sloping trendline. Price movers which pushes the price downwards are: - The recession warning from Fed, impacting eg. the housing bubble - The supply-chain crisis impacting the economy negatively, eg. the food prices negatively - Increased oil prices - War time These factors in a period of economic slow down will make people less likely to invest in cryptocurrencies to keep dollar in their wallets. Here is there a negative correlation between DXY (Dollar Cost Index) and the price of Bitcoin. These reasons may cause the price of Bitcoin to follow the bearish flag formation resulting in a strong downtrend and reaching prices of 20k and 10k.
Short
by vf_investment
11
A glitch in the energy matrix?Something weird is bubbling in the energy space. Before we delve in, let us briefly explain what the S&P Energy Select Sector Index represents. Some of you might already be familiar with XLE, the ETF which tracks the S&P Energy Select Sector Index (IXE). This Index seeks to represent the Energy sector by aggregating a basket of names in the sector. A breakdown of the top 10 Index components shows the Oil & Gas majors taking up roughly 75.41% of the Index, and 91% of the total Index component being Oil & Gas exposure, while the other 9% being energy-related equipment and services. CME E-mini S&P Select Sector Futures, XAE, tracks the aforementioned energy index, with the added benefit of margin offset and deep liquidity. Now given that the S&P Energy Select Sector Index is made up of mostly big Oil & Gas names, we would expect some correlation between the prices of oil and the Index itself. A look at both from the depths of the low in March 2020 till now shows both products moving closely together up until recently, where zooming in we see… the glitch in the matrix.... The 2 have been trading generally in lockstep since the bottom in 2020, but have diverged in a peculiar fashion, since the middle of July, with the energy sector gaining roughly 28% since, while Oil tumbles close to 30%! Has the exuberance in energy stocks been overdone? In our opinion yes and we see a couple of headwinds for the Energy Sector in general: 1) The impressive rally from the depths of COVID has been driven by rising oil prices and share buybacks. Oil prices are now faltering, and tightening Financial conditions/Recession could slow or stop buybacks. 2) Political pressure to apply a ‘windfall tax’ on oil and gas companies could eat into energy companies’ earnings. 3) Stabilized tension from the Russian-Ukraine means lower uncertainty and pressure on oil prices, as supply and demand find equilibrium from alternative sources. 4) China’s continued zero COVID policy means low demand from the world’s largest importer. From a price action perspective, XAE is trading just slightly off the all-time high range, which could prove to be an area of resistance. All things considered, we think this presents an opportunity to trade this divergence either by; 1) Shorting the XAE outright, which means to take a directional view on the Energy Index. A riskier trade. 2) Pair the XAE with the Crude Oil contract, by shorting the XAE and taking a long on the Crude Oil contract. A more risk-controlled approach. Crude Oil Trades at a contract unit of 1000 barrels and the E-mini Energy Select Sector trades $100 x S&P Energy Select Sector Index. Each Index point is 100$ on the CME E-Mini Energy Select Sector Futures contract (XAE) and $1000 on the Crude Oil Futures. One way to construct this spread could be to calculate the contract value difference between the 2 products; Spread = 100 x XAE1! – 1000 x CL1! You can construct the chart on TradingView by typing the above into the product search bar. This will show the Chart of the spread between the 2 products, which is close to the all-time high now. As such we will lean on the short side of this spread, given the outperformance of the Energy Index relative to Crude Oil. We will also keep an eye on the upcoming OPEC meeting on December 4th to gauge the path forward for Oil Prices. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Sources: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.ssga.com oilprice.com
Editors' picks
XShort
by inspirante
18
SPDR Bottom Support bendImportant: ****** With INTRS symbol added to compare and find points of bottoming, please enable AUTO and % to the chart) ******** I added the Interest rate line to check how long will it take to the market to start climbing out from bottom Pivot (once reached there), while comparing it to other yearly crises When Interest rate gets to the highest point during a down trend period (Bear market), it will stay there for quite a while (about 3-5 months) before the fed starts decreasing interest rates again 2000 Dot-Com Crisis Interest rates peaked at 6.5% 5/2000-12/2000 7 months interest rate stayed at peak 8/2000 Market peaked at 152 9/2002 - Market hit bottom (Pivot) 5/2000- 9/2002 From first time market hit highest Interest rate till bear market bottomed 8/2000 - 6/2007 Market took almost 7 years to go back to highest peak from 2000 2008 house market crisis Interest rates peaked at 5.25% 6/2006-8/2007 (1 year and 2 months stayed at peak) 10/2007 Market peaked at 154 (***** ONLY 2 POINTS HIGHER THAN 2000 PEAK ******) 2/2009 Market hit bottom (Pivot) 6/2006- 2/2009 From first time market hit highest Interest rate till bear market bottomed 10/2007-03/2013 Market took 5.5 years to go back to highest peak from 2007
AMEX:SPY
by AstockMaster
Supply risks point to higher oil pricesOil prices were whipsawed this week with swings of more than 6%1 after a report from the Wall Street Journal suggested that Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) is looking to possibly increase output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd). The rumour could have easily been justified by President Biden’s decision to offer sovereign immunity to the Saudi Crown Price Mohammed bin Salman in a civil lawsuit, as geopolitics could influence decisions. However, the Saudi’s shortly denied the report that OPEC+ was not considering an output increase, helping oil prices claw back losses on the day. This makes logical sense, given that OPEC+ reduced its oil production noticeably since the beginning of November, in accordance with its early October decision. The price action on 22nd November goes to show that it takes only a small amount of movement in trades to cause a large price effect in oil. The oil market remains susceptible to further volatility amidst a backdrop of low liquidity into year end. Looking ahead, the oil market remains vulnerable to a number of key events starting with the OPEC+ meeting on Dec 4 followed by the European Union (EU) embargo on Russian oil alongside G-7 plans to launch a price cap on Russian crude sales on Dec 5. Price cap on Russian oil is hardly bearish Expectations are that the G-7 will soon announce the level at which they intend to set the price cap on Russian oil. The latest reports suggest a cap of US Dollar 65-70 per barrel, which would be well above Russia’s cost of production. Russia is already selling its crude at a significant discount, so a cap at these levels would likely have minimal impact on trading and inflict minimal harm to Russia. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has once again made it clear that Russia will not supply crude oil or refined products to countries which follow the G-7 price cap. In fact, oil will either be redirected to those nations who choose to ignore the price cap or Russian output will be reduced. This appears to be more supportive for higher prices. So far, EU diplomats are locked in negotiations over how strict the Russian mechanism should be, after Poland and Greece rejected the proposal. They would prefer to see a cap closer to the cost of production at US$30. EU leaders are now expected to seek a deal at a 15-16 December summit, in follow up to the energy minister meeting this week on 24 November. EU embargo on the import of Russian oil is approaching fast. This comes into effect on 5 December for crude oil and 5 February 2023 for oil products. In the last three months, Russia has remained the largest external supplier of diesel to the EU, delivering 540kbd2. According to IEA estimates, the EU was still importing 1.5mbd of Russian crude oil in October, which corresponded to just under 15% of total EU crude oil imports. In the coming months, the EU will need to find alternative suppliers. Replacing these supplies is not going to be easy. Russia will need to find other buyers leading to further uncertainty on the oil markets. India, Turkey and China have increased their purchases of Russian oil, thereby enabling Russia to continue exporting large quantities of oil. Weak demand dominating sentiment on the oil market Oil prices are down nearly 35% from its peak as sentiment remains dominated by concerns over weaking demand as the global economy enters a recession alongside an unprecedented release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Net speculative positioning in WTI crude oil futures is more than 1-standard deviation below the 5-year average underscoring extreme bearishness on the oil market3. Its worth noting that speculative positioning in oil was on a downtrend prior to the peak in oil prices. That indicates for one investors were probably taking profits on earlier holdings and higher volatility in oil market kept buyers at bay. Although in a severe recession, oil demand can decline sharply, we are anticipating a much shallower recession for both the US and Eurozone economy. In the middle of the year, China’s oil demand was hit severely by lockdown restrictions, with demand falling below April 2020 and 2021 levels by 1-2mbd4. Although their remains uncertainty about China re-opening, we expect oil demand to recover from Q2 2023 onwards and accelerate towards year end. This should help oil demand from China grow in contrast to the prior two years. Conclusion: The oil market still seems structurally undersupplied over the next few years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) assumes by the end of Q1 2023 oil production will be 2mbd lower than prior to the invasion of Ukraine. We expect the Chinese re-opening, Russian supply risk, the end of SPR releases and lower levels of investment in the energy sector to contribute to a tighter oil market in 2023.
NYMEX:CL1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
2